Reposted by Felix S. BethkeJoe Noonan @joenoonan.se · 05/01/2024Since their rollout, I have made heavy use of the custom GPT tools in ChatGPT. Here is a thread of some of the tools that I use regularly (all of them require ChatGPT 4). I think they are most useful for people doing quantitative social science, but some are more general. 25215
Reposted by Felix S. BethkePRIF @prif.org · 28/12/2023What explains the recent wave of military coups in Sub-Saharan Africa? In the latest PRIF Spotlight, Markus Bayer (BICC), @felixbethke.bsky.social, Aurel Croissant & Nikitas Scheeder (Heidelberg University) take a look at political militarization as a risk factor. blog.prif.org/2023/12/28/b...blog.prif.orgBack in Business or Never Out? Military Coups and Political Militarization in Sub-Sahara Africa - PR...This Spotlight discusses the resurgence of military coups in Sub-Saharan Africa. We argue that an analytical and political focus on coup events misses out on the bigger picture of military influence i... 011
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeRegine Schwab @reginesonja.bsky.social · 29/11/2023New working paper with Werner Krause & Samer Massoud on the effects of targeting hospitals on violence dynamics in Northwest Syria hicn.org/working-pape... conflictsky polisky menaskyhicn.orgThe bombing of hospitals and local violence dynamics in civil wars: Evidence from Syria – HiCNCan coercive airpower quell a rebellion? Existing literature on the effects of counterinsurgent violence focuses predominantly on casualties resulting from atta 22914
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeUppsala Conflict Data Program @ucdp.bsky.social · 01/12/2023New data alert! UCDP Conflict Issues Dataset (CID) is here! This global yearly dataset contains 14 832 conflict issues – divided into a four-tier typology with 120 categories at the most disaggregated level – raised by all armed non-state groups active in civil war, 1989-2017. t.co/3hrZxZr6Qot.coWhat They Are Fighting For – Introducing the UCDP Conflict Issues Dataset - Johan Brosché, Ralph ...Although conflict issues – the stated goals of actors engaged in conflict – hold a privileged position in many theoretical explanations of the occurrence, dynam... 12110
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeCyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 17/11/2023Please see here for a call for doing more to integrate preregistration into the review process: "Open Letter on the Need for Preregistration Transparency in Peer Review" -- #polisky #econsky You can sign too -- link is in the letter. docs.google.com/document/d/1...docs.google.comOpen Letter on the Need for Preregistration Transparency in Peer Review[Academics who wish to sign the letter can do so here: https://forms.gle/aVnT6tmufoRKWQxk7] Open Letter on the Need for Preregistration Transparency in Peer Review Dear colleagues, We write to you ... 033
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeBrian Nosek @briannosek.bsky.social · 09/11/2023In other words, it is not really possible to have observed higher replicability than we did. The evidence provides proof-of-concept that high replicability is achievable. We can't, however, say the extent to which each practice contributed to replicability. 151
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeBrian Nosek @briannosek.bsky.social · 09/11/2023With a total of 16 new discoveries, 16 self-replications, and 48 independent replications, we found high replicability. Independent replication effect sizes were 97% the size of the confirmatory findings. On the "same direction, p<.05" benchmark, 86% replicated, higher than expected based on power 131
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeBrian Nosek @briannosek.bsky.social · 09/11/2023Our paper "High replicability of newly discovered social-behavioral findings is achievable" appears today in Nature Human Behaviour. Just as the large replications provided an inflection point in identifying replicability challenges, this paper does so for solutions. www.nature.com/articles/s41... 29859
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeClaire Adida @claireadida.bsky.social · 08/11/2023Polisky - anyone have a good contact at Lucid? Someone who responds fast? Thanks. 211
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeCausalscience.org @causalscience.org · 08/11/2023Start of the special contributed session on Large Language Models and Causality at CDSM '23. Amit Shama presents some novel results on this exciting topic coming out of Microsoft Research. ➡️ causalscience.org 054
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeAndy Halterman @ahalterman.bsky.social · 08/11/2023I couldn't find a tutorial I liked to get students who know R up and running with Python, so I wrote my own! Part 1 is here: andrewhalterman.com/post/python_... (And if you have a tutorial you like, please let me know!) 31710
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeChris Claassen @chrisclaassen.bsky.social · 06/11/2023Public support for democracy is crucial to prevent backsliding. But existing survey questions focusing on “democracy” may not measure the concept well, as the term “democracy” varies in meaning and may prompt social desirability. polisky 1/3 313457
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeJeff Ziegler @jeffreymziegler.bsky.social · 01/11/2023New draft of paper w/ @davidryanmiller.com ! Quick summary: - Conjoints mimic political choices that people face - Possible problem: If people don’t approve of choices, they may abstain - Findings: This matters!!! - Big update: New ex w/ tied & different attribute prioritisation Link: osf.io/4ws7mosf.io 0164
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeChristoffer H. Dausgaard @chdausgaard.bsky.social · 01/11/2023Important stuff. Most conjoints force subjects to choose. This can distort results in unpredictable ways. 042
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeRafael M Batista @rafmbatista.bsky.social · 31/10/2023Apparently ~40% of crowdsource workers use LLMs when completing surveys Relatively simple fix for text responses: Add Javascript to Qs to prevent pasting Credit to Jiabi Wang for idea + Kaushal Addanki for code below github.com/rafmbatista/... 107738
Reposted by Felix S. BethkePRIF @prif.org · 23/10/2023Israels Selbstverteidigung: Über die humanitäre Lage in Gaza und die Chancen zur Eindämmung des Konflikts diskutieren heute 19 Uhr im Stream & im Haus am Dom Claudia Baumgart-Ochse & Michel Friedman, Moderation: A. Schwarzkopf, Frankfurter Rundschau: www.hsfk.de/veranstaltun... 032
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeDr. Salah Ben Hammou @salahbhpolisci.bsky.social · 18/10/2023Using admin privileges for today's Dictatorsky shoutout. My study on civilian involvement in military coups. Civilian resources (elite vs. mass-based) shape their conduct in coup politics - from instigation to consolidation. More to come :) Polisky, CivMilSky journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....journals.sagepub.comThe Varieties of Civilian Praetorianism: Evidence From Sudan’s Coup Politics - Salah Ben Hammou, 2...This study explores the varieties of civilian praetorianism or the different ways in which civilians enable and support military coups. It specifically argues t... 072
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeAsjad Naqvi @asjadnaqvi.bsky.social · 16/10/2023Dear all, just rediscovering my own website that I put online at the beginning of this year. Needs to be updated but pretty much contains most of the #Stata #dataviz I created in the past three years. asjadnaqvi.github.io/stata-portfo... Check it out! 0155
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeBenjamin Braun @benbraun.social · 12/10/2023A list of financial data sources, curated for political economy use cases. Official statistics as well as datasets compiled by organizations and academic researchers. Originally assembled for my students, now available on my website. Suggestions welcome! benjaminbraun.org/teaching/dat... 18843
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeErik Melander @erikmelander.bsky.social · 09/10/2023The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) will present its new UCDP Conflict Issues Dataset at the Data4Peace 2023 Conference on October 18 at 10:45 Eastern Time #conflictsky Register here: cic.nyu.edu/events/data-...cic.nyu.eduData for Peace: Leveraging Data to Foster Lasting Peace | Center on International Cooperation 0184
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeAriel Zellman @arielzellman.bsky.social · 05/10/2023Religious Minorities at Risk is available for order at OUP! In it, we examine how different forms of discrimination & grievance contribute to varying degrees of peaceful & violent mobilization by religious minorities Use discount code ASFLYQ6 to save 30% at checkout. polisky | polrel | conflictsky 1163
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeNils Weidmann @nilsweidmann.bsky.social · 27/09/2023My book on data management is available #OpenAccess at www.cambridge.org/core/books/d... ! Also, check out the companion webpage at dmbook.org. I hope that the book will be useful for your research and teaching. 24722
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeChristopher Barrie @cbarrie.bsky.social · 03/10/2023🍾New paper with Roberto Cerina, Neil Ketchley, and Aaron Zelin now accepted at Political Analysis journal! polisky cssky sociology drive.google.com/file/d/1Xv3m... 0217
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeBrendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 03/10/2023Friends: Our interaction models are underpowered intxpower.com?A=0.5&B=0.4&... journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.... 56530
Reposted by Felix S. Bethkechris @cxor.de · 02/10/2023Gibt eine tolle Tweetdeck-Alternative für Bluesky, die ich seit wenigen Minuten ausprobiere und davon sofort begeistert bin: deck.blue/ Für das Login richtet euch am besten ein App-Passwort in den Bluesky-Settings ein. 153
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeDavide Cerruti @dcerruti.bsky.social · 28/09/2023A problem in economics research: Null results are considered less relevant and less publishable than statistically significant results, especially when they go against expectations. 📉📈 doi.org/10.1093/ej/u... 25930
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeMissing The Point @missingthept.bsky.social · 26/09/2023Bluesky has @timgill924.bsky.social now. 053
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeTim Gill @timgill924.bsky.social · 01/10/2023I had a colleague a few years back who published a book and asked me for feedback. I told him point blank that it was a waste of paper and on an inane topic of no significance. He grumbled. I don’t care. Either do good research or I’ll trash it. Not interested in friendship. This is our work. 0121
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeDotan Haim @dotanhaim.bsky.social · 30/09/2023Introducing Conflictsky, a new feed for political conflict and violence! Like and pin the feed here: bsky.app/profile/did:... To post, tag with 'conflictsky' or 'violencesky' It's a polisky sub-feed, so request to join that list if you haven't already: www.paulmusgrave.info/how-to-use-p... 1411847
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeConnair J. S. Russell @connairrussell.bsky.social · 28/09/2023Groundhog for R is so good for reproducibility. You just load your packages with it and voila, anyone who runs your script will have the same package versions. One less hurdle to reproducible code. Props to the team at Wharton Credibility Lab! groundhogr.com #psychscisky 310442
Felix S. Bethke @felixbethke.bsky.social · 28/09/2023New take on the replication crisis in the social sciences, proposing "replication games" to address the issue www.nature.com/articles/d41... I like that they highlight coding errors as a problem We write thousand lines of code. There have to be many errors that we did not spot. polisky 0174
Felix S. Bethke @felixbethke.bsky.social · 27/09/2023Dear @profmusgrave.bsky.social could you please add me to polisky? Thanks! 000
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeJohn V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · 26/09/2023Hey Stata folks! Want to visually present your regression results? I made a guide. It covers key aesthetics, combining results from multiple models, working w/ logit models, & more. Oh, and I provide all the code. Comments/feedback welcome! drive.google.com/drive/folder... 712445
Reposted by Felix S. BethkeOmar García-Ponce @garciaponce.bsky.social · 20/09/2023First post here! Early view of my AJPS article with Leonard Wantchekon on the legacy of African independence movements. We argue that rural insurgencies generated political exclusion & autocratic regimes, while urban protests fostered democratic behavior & institutions. doi.org/10.1111/ajps... 813232