sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 11hJust to say that is the polling number for Hackney North, not South. Yet you would still expect the Greens, like in Holborn, to outperform the MRP's average. But by how much will be v interesting. 000
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 11hFrom @jim.londoncentric.media. The striking thing is that the most recent MRP average put Hackney at 50% (Labour) and 26% (Greens). Whereas the average was 45% (Labour) and 25% (Greens) for Holborn. Yes, the Greens have better campaign infrastructure, but the numbers have shifted. 100
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 10/10/2026The essay question is as party loyalty is going to fluctuate up and down most probs in the future, does the candidate become more important than swing of the party. 010
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 10/10/2026There aren’t that many examples of independents winning parliamentary seats, it has happened. Ofc in America there is Susan Collins in Maine who could win again. I think this by-election is fascinating, I didn’t spot in the crosstab but how many people knew Segal before the campaign started etc 110
Reposted by @sampallis.bsky.socialMorgan Jones @morganj0nes.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Pleased to have this out today with @steveakehurst.bsky.social, discussing @persuasionuk.bsky.social's work on climate salience and public attitudes. I'm really pleased with the piece, do give it a read: www.break-down.org/making-peopl...break-down.orgMaking people care about the climateAs the world heats up, are we really taking notice? 12517
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 10/10/2026I take your take your point but there are really the expection not the norm, and Farage took several attempts to get into parliament. Most politicians over estimate their personal vote 000
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 10/10/2026The likely outcome is that Reform continue to ape Restore. That the fact that they are both so well funded you can see how this means that they start to cancel each other out. 000
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 10/10/2026Restore proving to be a major headache for Reform. How this plays out in seats like Wellingborough and Tamworth will be fascinating. You can see how Reform/Restore split allows Labour to hang onto these seats. 100
Reposted by @sampallis.bsky.socialDavid Klemperer @dmk1793.bsky.social · 08/10/2026"But there is no straight line between experience and opinion. All experience is mediated via pre-existing political beliefs" Fascinating analysis here of experience vs media coverage in shaping climate salience - with wider implications for how we think about the drivers of political opinionbreak-down.orgMaking people care about the climateAs the world heats up, are we really taking notice? 02312
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 10/10/2026Max personal vote in parliamentary constituency around 3,000. Cld have made a difference in this one potentially for the Greens, but I doubt it. The discivive factor was Burnham. 100
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 10/10/2026A by-election is very different from a general election. Ofc now party loyalty at its lower ebb candidate makes much more of a difference. But I would say this is a golden rule and most mp in a GE situation go in and out with the swing. 100
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 10/10/2026The result in Holborn saw labour match the average of the MRP’s for Holborn since July , 45%, and the green outperform the average when combined with the independents (25%) by 8%. My write up is here: bsky.app/profile/samp... 020
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 10/10/2026Also social renters have been moving away from Labour (partially Muslim vote, but labour were down 23% with social renters since 24, according to Mile End polling). Greens still competitive seats with high proportion of social renters eg myatt’s field result. 000
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 09/10/2026This is so interesting from Britain Elects. That 30% in Camden means 40% in Hackney Actually an average of the most recent MRP put labour on 50% in Hackney North and the Greens on 26%. In Camden the average of MRP was 45% labour and 25% green. So I am not sure 30 in Camden does mean 40 in Hackney 100
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 09/10/2026What I got right, and what I got wrong about the Holborn and St Pancras by-election A stunning result, but Labour is still on a road to recovery in cities @robfordmancs.bsky.social @steveakehurst.bsky.social leftwingofthepossible.substack.com/p/what-i-got...leftwingofthepossible.substack.comWhat I got right, and what I got wrong about the Holborn and St Pancras by-electionA stunning result, but Labour is still on a road to recovery in cities 000
Reposted by @sampallis.bsky.socialNick Garland @npjgarland.bsky.social · 09/10/2026This is really interesting, and basically vindicates the v different approach Labour took towards the Greens in Holborn & St Pancras vs Gorton & Denton. 177
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 09/10/2026I wrote this after the May local election re what could pose a problem to Green surge, and it does look like it is playing out. 000
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 09/10/2026But the Green underperformed the combined total of non labour left vote at the locals. The by-election result in Lambeth yesterday is maybe a tad more representative of where we are the inner city. Labour ahead, but a small swing away from not being. It’s all about if the greens implode now. 110
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 09/10/2026It pretty much matches labour increases in vote share increase in the polling averages and 45% is bang on the average vote share for the most recent MRP’s done, as I outlined in my prediction: bsky.app/profile/samp... 000
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 09/10/2026The difficulty for the Green is: A) Polanski days are looking numbered. May do some co-leadership with Hannah Spencer to try and save himself B) The fallout from motion/being investigated under ECHR means this is going nowhere fast. Only a change of leadership Cld potentially change things. 000
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 09/10/2026A really spectacular result for Labour considering the swings we have seen in the inner city. Labour got the lowest vote share in inner city London since 1912 in the locals. However they have a much reduced majority and a pretty small swing back to the Greens could put this seat in play. 100
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Below is a chart of the MRP’s undertake in the last couple of months for Holborn and St Pancras Labour’s result was bang on the average of the MRP’s whereas the Green outperformed the average for them and leftist independent combined by 8% 000
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 09/10/2026So here was my prediction for turnout and vote share for the by-election. I was way off turnout. But I was pretty much spot on re Labour vote share and with the Greens was about 2% of my lower estimate. 200
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 09/10/2026This is bang on the average for October praliamnetary by-elections in recent years But runs massively below Makerfield and Gorton. A bad sign for the Greens who needed turnout to be very high to get ‘non-voters’ out like they did in the locals in 26 100
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Fascinating. Cons, Lib Dem’s and Green getting behind Labour to keep Reform out. Would not have been possible under Starmer 010
Reposted by @sampallis.bsky.socialNick Garland @npjgarland.bsky.social · 08/10/2026I'm in the growth pamphlet here, trying to answer how to communicate the politics of growth. I argue the centre-left should amplify dividing lines around the means of delivering growth ('why is a progressive govt best equipped to achieve greater prosperity'), rather than the (pretty abstract) ends. 032
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 07/10/2026My prediction for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. It’s looking like a close Labour win. leftwingofthepossible.substack.com/p/holborn-an...leftwingofthepossible.substack.comHolborn and St Pancras by-election predictionIt’s looking like a close win for Labour 021
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Really fascinating point from Stephen Bush here. 010
Reposted by @sampallis.bsky.socialAlbert Pinto @70sbachchan.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Catastrophe In Brazil with the far right surging State races, senate and congress races all going for the far right Presidential race going to a second round thankfully with bolsonaro’s son under 50 percent www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblo... 35925289
Reposted by @sampallis.bsky.socialNick Garland @npjgarland.bsky.social · 03/10/2026It’s not that the various worries outlined here are baseless, but I can’t help but feel that they show a reluctance to recognise how badly the previous political strategy failed and how fast our politics is changing. www.thetimes.com/article/40cd...thetimes.comReality bites for Burnham as he picks fights with his own partyAs the afterglow of his triumphant speech fades, Labour MPs warn of bitter divisions to come on the cost of living, Brexit and voting reform 6416
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Ford outlines how green is still a potent force in the inner city where there is no threat of Reform. As I wrote after the Great Manchester by-election, we could see the Brighton Pavilionaction of the inner city: substack.com/home/post/p-... 000
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 02/10/2026re this convo, just wrote this piece: leftwingofthepossible.substack.com/p/burnham-th...leftwingofthepossible.substack.comBurnham the RedeemerBurnham presented himself as a confessor, convert, and healer as he apologised for and sought to redeem politics. 000
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 02/10/2026@petewhitehead.bsky.social following on from our convo. 000
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 02/10/2026My last dispatch from the conference: Burnham the Redeemer Burnham presented himself as a confessor, convert, and healer as he apologised for and sought to redeem politics. leftwingofthepossible.substack.com/p/burnham-th...leftwingofthepossible.substack.comBurnham the RedeemerBurnham presented himself as a confessor, convert, and healer as he apologised for and sought to redeem politics. 100
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 01/10/2026This is fascinating development and one to watch 000
Reposted by @sampallis.bsky.socialRobert Saunders @robertsaunders.bsky.social · 30/09/2026On 26 October, we'll be marking 50 years since the IMF crisis by exploring the politics of economic shocks. What is it like to govern in an economic crisis? What happens when "the markets" turn on governments? And what does this mean for democracy? All welcome! www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/politics-a...eventbrite.co.ukPolitics and Economic Shocks, from the IMF Crisis to the Mini-BudgetJoin the Mile End Institute for a discussion exploring how financial crises and market pressures have shaped British politics since 1976. 12410
Reposted by @sampallis.bsky.socialCo-operative Party @coopparty.party.coop · 30/09/2026Our movement is one of radical optimism. Not seeing the world just as it is, but how it could be. Cait Prowle delivers our Sororal Greetings at Labour Party Conference. 022
Reposted by @sampallis.bsky.socialGaby Hinsliff @gabyhinsliff.bsky.social · 30/09/2026such a good eg of why political argument matters - polling previously showed over 60% support for keeping triple lock. Argue to unlock it *for something people also want* & numbers can change. (Obv can change back again if someone makes a good argument against, but either way, politics=argument) 1926264
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 30/09/2026I think what was really innovative about is that it was not designed to be first pumping speech. He said it himself. But that was made the oratory so impactful was that is was so human and very catholic. I have sinned, you have sinned but there is redemption. As powerful as anything I have seen. 001
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 30/09/2026I would just push back on that it wasn’t a classic speech. That speech will go down as one of labour classic speech. Defo up there with Brown London citizen (2010) and Blair forces of conservatism (1999). It was very much an anti-speech all most a confessional in many respects. It was brilliant. 120
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Tales from Conference 3.0 In today's post: Healey's Callaghanite speech, Neal Lawson's warning, and the tiny swing that could undo the Burnham bounce. leftwingofthepossible.substack.com/p/tales-from...leftwingofthepossible.substack.comTales from Conference 3.0Future nostalgia or just nostalgia? 000
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 27/09/2026Tales from Conference 2.0. Have survived the first day. Today in my Substack, I respond to Alan Lockey, Keir Starmer's speechwriter, in a piece arguing that our politics has gone post-material With a fascinating insight from @dmk1793.bsky.social leftwingofthepossible.substack.com/p/tales-from...leftwingofthepossible.substack.comTales from Conference 2.0We live in a post-material world, or do we? 000
Reposted by @sampallis.bsky.socialDavid Klemperer @dmk1793.bsky.social · 27/09/2026If you are at Labour Party Conference today, I'll be speaking at the @ippr.org 'Big Ideas Debate' this evening making the case for compulsory voting. 6pm, Museum of Liverpool, Education Area 3. www.ippr.org/events/ippr-...ippr.orgIPPR at party conferences 2026 | IPPRThis year IPPR is expanding its presence and will be at five party conferences in 2026. We anticipate that just as in previous years, our events will prove 2164
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 26/09/2026I'm doing a daily update from the Labour Party conference: The first post covers Darren Jones' interview in the New Statesman and what it tells us about how Blarites will talk about Starmer's legacy. A force of conservatism or progress? leftwingofthepossible.substack.com/p/tales-from...leftwingofthepossible.substack.comTales from conference 1.0Remembrance of Things Past: Darren Jones, reviving Blair through Starmer 000
sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 26/09/2026So we have this weird thing were all parts of the left are claiming to be the most workerist. Ofc expressive politics is a thing. But if it was all expressive then the republicans wld not be about to lose the mid-terms. . 000
