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When a hidden Markov model permits the conditional likelihood of an observation given the hidden process to be zero, all particle simulations from one observation time to the next could produce zer...

It’s been an interesting few weeks for counterexamples. This post is basically my perspective of what has been going on in the world of formalization, AI tools and, in particular, counterexam…

Cambridge Core - Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning - Modern Statistical Methods and Theory

I recently learned that Springer Nature is about to make the reference journal Statistics and Computing, where I published close to twenty papers over the years, fully “open access”, wh…

Bayesian quadrature is a probabilistic, model-based approach to numerical integration, the estimation of intractable integrals, or expectations. Although Bayesian quadrature was popularised already in...

GPTZero's analysis 4841 papers accepted by NeurIPS 2025 show there are at least 100 with confirmed hallucinations

YouTube video by ISBA - International Society of Bayesian Analysis

This monograph presents the core principles that have guided the development of diffusion models, tracing their origins and showing how diverse formulations arise from shared mathematical ideas. Diffu...

This monograph studies the relations between two approaches using positive definite kernels: probabilistic methods using Gaussian processes, and non-probabilistic methods using reproducing kernel Hilb...

Hej! Have you ever wondered if momentum flips/refreshments are really needed in HMC or if we somehow can avoid to lose our sense of direction after each proposal step? Or even wondered if we could ge...