Reposted by Adrien CorenflosMattan S. Ben-Shachar @mattansb.msbstats.info · 14/09/2026Upgrading my "hedghog-cake as an estimand" slide with some more hedgehog cakes from hell. #statsmeme 4588
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosTerence Tao @teorth.bsky.social · 11/09/2026A group of 25 Fields Medalists, including myself, have made a joint declaration on Math and AI: mathandai.org . We welcome additional signatories. See also this article in the Economist announcing the declaration: www.economist.com/science-and-...mathandai.orgDeclaration — Math and AIRead the declaration and add your name. 422052926
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosAlex Hern @hern.bsky.social · 06/09/2026Just realised I feel about cars like half of you feel about LLMs. “Oh but you can’t deny it’s convenient” I don’t deny it’s convenient, I attest that it sucks to live in the world it created 622734
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 14/08/2026I was reading today about the Borell-TIS inequality, which is named after Christer Borell, and then three people who had the bad idea of not writing a single author paper. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borell%...en.wikipedia.orgBorell–TIS inequality - Wikipedia 030
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosMaria Antoniak @mariaa.bsky.social · 09/08/2026Wow, I love this short piece about writing and revision, comparing students to experts: psychology.yale.edu/sites/defaul... Good writing is good thinking. AI might assist but can't do that for me. I'm writing for a deadline tonight, and it's wonderful I get to write, and think, for work. 25710
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 20/07/2026Claude and I just broke up: "it's not you, it's me". 021
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosMichael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 17/07/2026Anyone know of any papers that directly critique Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for being unreliable (and not just slow/slower than a competing method)? Papers in stats or applied fields welcome, and the critiques don't have to be well-formed or even correct. 151
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosArula Ratnakar @arula-ratnakar.bsky.social · 17/07/2026Unfortunately these characters are extremely messed up in this one. They were birthed in a nightmare I had. I don't know if I'm the one playing God with my characters, or if they're the ones playing God with me. 021
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 02/07/2026New version available at the same address! We bit the bullet and extended the work to consider arbitrary numbers of blocks, discrete spaces, parallel/systematic/random scan CAVI within a unified framework. Applications now include statistical physics models and others! arxiv.org/abs/2605.30253 052
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosMatti Vihola @mattivihola.bsky.social · 18/06/2026Our paper (with Alain Durmus, Samuel Gruffaz, Miika Kailas and Eero Saksman) on the ergodicity of dynamic path length HMC algorithms appeared in the AAP: doi.org/10.1214/25-A.... The results accommodate the 'biased progressive sampling' path selection used in @mc-stan.org.doi.org 184
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosSam Duffield @samduffield.com · 12/06/2026Now on the state-space-models repo state-space-models.github.io/cuthberto-ca...state-space-models.github.ioCuthberto Carlos | World Cup PredictionsInteractive 2026 World Cup match predictions from the Cuthberto Carlos model. 021
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 15/06/2026I think this didn't get nearly enough traction. Sam did some fantastic work here leveraging the library we've been developing to make predictions for football. This was ported to a UI by Ryan Chan (Warwick MSc student) who's doing his thesis with me (on the methods behind the prediction). 142
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 30/05/2026Often maths is more about finding the right definition than actually proving the theorem. 090
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosMine Doğucu @minedogucu.com · 30/05/2026A British friend texted me that PinkPantheress’ dad is a statistician. Stephen G. Walker is a Bayesian. This is our chance to make Bayesian nonparametrics mainstream. Looking at you @isba-bayesian.bsky.social. 1112
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosDavid Picard @davidpicard.eurosky.social · 15/05/2026👏 Folks! If you are curious about the Generative Modeling via Drifting paper, but you find it difficult to understand → I wrote a different interpretation of it. It's called: "An Expectation-Maximization interpretation of Generative Modeling via Drifting" davidpicard.github.io/pdf/An_Expec... 2285
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosBlake Emerson @blakeprof.bsky.social · 11/05/2026How dare you exploit academic labor; that’s our job! 27819
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosMartyn Plummer @martynplummer.bsky.social · 05/05/2026martynplummer.wordpress.com/2026/05/04/j...martynplummer.wordpress.comJAGS 5.0.0-beta is availableJAGS 5.0.0-beta is now available from SourceForge. The beta release is for two groups of people: People who have written software depending on JAGS, in particular authors of R packages that depend … 1156
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosSam Power @spmontecarlo.bsky.social · 28/04/2026In London today and tomorrow for this very exciting workshop! fsml-ucl.github.io/CSMLworkshop... 2294
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosArXiv Paperboy (Stat.ME+Econ.EM) @paperposterbot.bsky.social · 27/04/2026arXiv📈🤖 From Physics to Statistics: A Simple Route to Exponential Families via Maximum Entropy By Strimmer 061
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosKevin Han Huang @kevhhuang.bsky.social · 22/04/2026Given popular demands, we have resumed the registration for a short period of time until *30 Apr*! Those already on the waiting list are guaranteed a slot so long as you register by 30 Apr. Other additional slots are available on a first-come-first basis :) 032
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 14/04/2026To be precise, Happy World Quantum Day to all the weirdos who observe! 061
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 14/04/2026Happy World Quantum Day to all the weirdos out there who celebrate! 170
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosArXiv Paperboy (Stat.ME+Econ.EM) @paperposterbot.bsky.social · 26/03/2026arXiv📈🤖 E-values as statistical evidence: A comparison to Bayes factors, likelihoods, and p-values By Chugg, Ramdas, Gr\"unwald 093
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosKevin Han Huang @kevhhuang.bsky.social · 16/03/2026The registration closes on 31 March and there are only a number of slots left --- register before they run out :) 032
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosArula Ratnakar @arula-ratnakar.bsky.social · 25/02/2026My finalist medal from the Ignyte Awards arrived today for my scifi novella "Fractal Karma" which was a finalist in 2025 Made me tear up, it's beautiful If you want to read my story, it's available here. 2050's Boston and a hivemind based on Brunnian links: clarkesworldmagazine.com/ratnakar_10_... 1195
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 19/02/2026Clearly a must read for anyone even remotely interested in numerical integration (be it stochastic and deterministic). Toni has been (hyper)active in studying these methods both theoretically and practically. arxiv.org/abs/2602.16218arxiv.orgBayesian Quadrature: Gaussian Processes for IntegrationBayesian quadrature is a probabilistic, model-based approach to numerical integration, the estimation of intractable integrals, or expectations. Although Bayesian quadrature was popularised already in... 0112
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosarXiv stat.CO Computation @statco-bot.bsky.social · 12/02/2026Max Hird, Florian Maire, Jeffrey Negrea: A Non-asymptotic Analysis for Learning and Applying a Preconditioner in MCMC arxiv.org/abs/2602.10714 arxiv.org/pdf/2602.10714 arxiv.org/html/2602.10714 053
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosSam Duffield @samduffield.com · 30/01/2026Repo: github.com/state-space-...github.comGitHub - state-space-models/cuthbert: State-space model inference with JAXState-space model inference with JAX. Contribute to state-space-models/cuthbert development by creating an account on GitHub. 182
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosWarwick Statistics @warwickstats.bsky.social · 29/01/2026Another exciting workshop to be held at Warwick Statistics this coming June: The ProbAI Theory of Scaling Laws Workshop from 22-24 June! Website of the workshop: warwick.ac.uk/fac/sc... Registration open until 31 March on a first-come-first-serve basis: warwick.ac.uk/fac/sc.... 165
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 23/01/2026According to AI, the exam I've written for my students "does not spark any joy". 150
Reposted by Adrien Corenflospost malone ergo propter malone @proptermalone.bsky.social · 14/01/2026i am not trying to be a part of my LLM's emotional growth arc. i do not want to know what my LLM works on with their therapist 131378
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosAki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 12/01/2026ELLIS Institute Finland @ellisinstitute.fi has open call for postdocs (DL Feb 9) www.ellisinstitute.fi/postdoc-recr... There are 45 PIs to choose from, and you can apply to work also with me on computational Bayesian modeling and Bayesian workflow!ellisinstitute.fiPostdoc positions at ELLIS Institute Finland | ELLIS Institute FinlandCall for postdoctoral researchers in artificial intelligence and machine learning 02213
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosRichard Everitt @bayesianstats.bsky.social · 12/01/2026Shreya Sinha Roy's first paper (joint with me, Christian Robert and Rito Dutta) is on "Generalized Bayesian deep reinforcement learning". We use a neural network as a model in Bayesian reinforcement learning, trained using a generalized prequential scoring rule with SMC arxiv.org/abs/2412.1... 0123
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 09/12/2025Do time travellers bring supermutant bugs from the future? Surely time travel should be banned from health and safety principles only. 010
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 07/12/2025Random thought: imagine there's a parallel universe exactly identical to ours. You are a genius scientist and invent a machine that lets you cross. As you press the button, your doppelganger does too, and so, for all intents and purposes, nothing changes and the machine simply doesn't work. 120
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 21/11/2025Cool place for foraging, if you too have the virus. #mushroom 010
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosMatti Vihola @mattivihola.bsky.social · 21/11/2025We @uniofjyvaskyla.bsky.social are looking for an Assistant/Associate Professor (tenure track) in Mathematics (Probability/Mathematical Foundations of Data Science): www.ellisinstitute.fi/pi-positions.... Application instructions & form: www.ellisinstitute.fi/PI-recruit-2..., DL Jan 12!ellisinstitute.fiPI positions | ELLIS Institute FinlandELLIS Institute Finland PI positions (second call, winter 2025–26) 053
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosArnaud Doucet @arnauddoucet.bsky.social · 15/11/2025🔥 WANTED: Student Researcher to join me, @vdebortoli.bsky.social, Jiaxin Shi, Kevin Li and @arthurgretton.bsky.social in DeepMind London. You'll be working on Multimodal Diffusions for science. Apply here google.com/about/career...google.comStudent Researcher, 2026 — Google Careers 03515
Reposted by Adrien Corenfloslebellig @lebellig.bsky.social · 28/10/2025"The Principles of Diffusion Models" by Chieh-Hsin Lai, Yang Song, Dongjun Kim, Yuki Mitsufuji, Stefano Ermon. arxiv.org/abs/2510.21890 It might not be the easiest intro to diffusion models, but this monograph is an amazing deep dive into the math behind them and all the nuancesarxiv.orgThe Principles of Diffusion ModelsThis monograph presents the core principles that have guided the development of diffusion models, tracing their origins and showing how diverse formulations arise from shared mathematical ideas. Diffu... 13713
Reposted by Adrien Corenflosarxiv.stat.ME @arxiv-stat-me.bsky.social · 28/10/2025Jiezhong Wu, Reiichiro Kawai Stopping Rules for Monte Carlo Methods: A Review arxiv.org/abs/2510.22688 011
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosClément Canonne @ccanonne.github.io · 27/10/2025Surprise 1: it is possible! Surprise 2: the algorithms are quite simple! Surprise 3: it is beautiful (this one is not a surprise) For a good overview and some cool results on correlated sampling, see, e.g., arxiv.org/abs/1612.01041 (Now, are you happy, tiny part of my brain I can't ignore?)arxiv.orgOptimality of Correlated Sampling StrategiesIn the "correlated sampling" problem, two players are given probability distributions $P$ and $Q$, respectively, over the same finite set, with access to shared randomness. Without any communication, ... 1101
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosSam Power @spmontecarlo.bsky.social · 26/10/2025Let me advertise a bit our Online Monte Carlo seminar: This coming Tuesday, we have Giorgos Vasdekis speaking on some very interesting recent work. Moreover, we have confirmed our speaker line-up through until December - very exciting! See sites.google.com/view/monte-c... for further details. 0217
Reposted by Adrien CorenflosLouis Aslett @louisaslett.bsky.social · 22/10/2025Postdoc, Newcastle University (UK). PINCODE researches Monte Carlo Fusion methods: this postdoc will help developing #rstats packages that bring this methodological work to life, as well as opportunities to contribute to further methodological development. www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DOZ807/r...jobs.ac.ukResearch Associate/Assistant in Statistics at Newcastle UniversityApply for the Research Associate/Assistant in Statistics role on jobs.ac.uk, the top job board for academic positions in higher education. View details and apply now. 175
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 20/10/2025A little self promotion: Hai-Dang Dau (NUS) and I recently released this pre-print, which I'm not half proud of. arxiv.org/abs/2510.07559 The main problem we solve in it is to construct importance weights for Markov chain Monte Carlo. We achieve it via a method we call harmonization by coupling. 1163