Sign in

Adrien Corenflos

@adriencorenflos.bsky.social
576 followers 522 following 364 posts

Assistant Professor at the university of Warwick. I compute integrals for a living. adriencorenflos.github.io

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
Mattan S. Ben-Shachar @mattansb.msbstats.info · 14/09/2026
Upgrading my "hedghog-cake as an estimand" slide with some more hedgehog cakes from hell. #statsmeme
4588
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
Terence Tao @teorth.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
A group of 25 Fields Medalists, including myself, have made a joint declaration on Math and AI: mathandai.org . We welcome additional signatories. See also this article in the Economist announcing the declaration: www.economist.com/science-and-...
mathandai.org
Declaration — Math and AI
Read the declaration and add your name.
422052926
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
Alex Hern @hern.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Just realised I feel about cars like half of you feel about LLMs. “Oh but you can’t deny it’s convenient” I don’t deny it’s convenient, I attest that it sucks to live in the world it created
622734
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
I was reading today about the Borell-TIS inequality, which is named after Christer Borell, and then three people who had the bad idea of not writing a single author paper. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borell%...
en.wikipedia.org
Borell–TIS inequality - Wikipedia
030
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
Maria Antoniak @mariaa.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
Wow, I love this short piece about writing and revision, comparing students to experts: psychology.yale.edu/sites/defaul... Good writing is good thinking. AI might assist but can't do that for me. I'm writing for a deadline tonight, and it's wonderful I get to write, and think, for work.
Scan of text from: https://psychology.yale.edu/sites/default/files/sommers_onrevisionstrategies.pdfScan of text from: https://psychology.yale.edu/sites/default/files/sommers_onrevisionstrategies.pdfScan of text from: https://psychology.yale.edu/sites/default/files/sommers_onrevisionstrategies.pdfScan of text from: https://psychology.yale.edu/sites/default/files/sommers_onrevisionstrategies.pdf
25710
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
A good summary of the holiday!
140
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Claude and I just broke up: "it's not you, it's me".
021
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Anyone know of any papers that directly critique Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for being unreliable (and not just slow/slower than a competing method)? Papers in stats or applied fields welcome, and the critiques don't have to be well-formed or even correct.
151
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
Arula Ratnakar @arula-ratnakar.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Unfortunately these characters are extremely messed up in this one. They were birthed in a nightmare I had. I don't know if I'm the one playing God with my characters, or if they're the ones playing God with me.
021
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
New version available at the same address! We bit the bullet and extended the work to consider arbitrary numbers of blocks, discrete spaces, parallel/systematic/random scan CAVI within a unified framework. Applications now include statistical physics models and others! arxiv.org/abs/2605.30253
052
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
Particle filters go brrrrr
190
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
Matti Vihola @mattivihola.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Our paper (with Alain Durmus, Samuel Gruffaz, Miika Kailas and Eero Saksman) on the ergodicity of dynamic path length HMC algorithms appeared in the AAP: doi.org/10.1214/25-A.... The results accommodate the 'biased progressive sampling' path selection used in @mc-stan.org.
doi.org
184
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
Sam Duffield @samduffield.com · 12/06/2026
Now on the state-space-models repo state-space-models.github.io/cuthberto-ca...
state-space-models.github.io
Cuthberto Carlos | World Cup Predictions
Interactive 2026 World Cup match predictions from the Cuthberto Carlos model.
021
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
I think this didn't get nearly enough traction. Sam did some fantastic work here leveraging the library we've been developing to make predictions for football. This was ported to a UI by Ryan Chan (Warwick MSc student) who's doing his thesis with me (on the methods behind the prediction).
142
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 30/05/2026
Often maths is more about finding the right definition than actually proving the theorem.
090
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
Mine Doğucu @minedogucu.com · 30/05/2026
A British friend texted me that PinkPantheress’ dad is a statistician. Stephen G. Walker is a Bayesian. This is our chance to make Bayesian nonparametrics mainstream. Looking at you @isba-bayesian.bsky.social.
WhatsApp message that says “Just read that PinkPantheress has a statistician for a father
1112
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
David Picard @davidpicard.eurosky.social · 15/05/2026
👏 Folks! If you are curious about the Generative Modeling via Drifting paper, but you find it difficult to understand → I wrote a different interpretation of it. It's called: "An Expectation-Maximization interpretation of Generative Modeling via Drifting" davidpicard.github.io/pdf/An_Expec...
2285
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
My name is Bon. Jam Bon.
000
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
Blake Emerson @blakeprof.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
How dare you exploit academic labor; that’s our job!
27819
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
Martyn Plummer @martynplummer.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
martynplummer.wordpress.com/2026/05/04/j...
martynplummer.wordpress.com
JAGS 5.0.0-beta is available
JAGS 5.0.0-beta is now available from SourceForge. The beta release is for two groups of people: People who have written software depending on JAGS, in particular authors of R packages that depend …
1156
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
Sam Power @spmontecarlo.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
In London today and tomorrow for this very exciting workshop! fsml-ucl.github.io/CSMLworkshop...
2294
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
ArXiv Paperboy (Stat.ME+Econ.EM) @paperposterbot.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
arXiv📈🤖 From Physics to Statistics: A Simple Route to Exponential Families via Maximum Entropy By Strimmer
Exponential families form the backbone of modern statistics and machine learning, but textbooks seldom derive them from first principles in an accessible way. Although minimal sufficiency and the principle of maximum entropy, originating in physics, provide core motivation, they are often presented as technical and requiring advanced prerequisites.
  Here, a short, self-contained derivation of exponential families based on maximum entropy is presented that is straightforward to carry out, requires only a modest background in information entropy, and avoids technicalities like constrained optimisation. Two propositions are demonstrated in this fashion: i) exponential families with a general base maximise information entropy with respect to that base subject to fixed expectations of canonical statistics, and ii) exponential families with a uniform base maximise standard information entropy under the same constraints.
  Maximum entropy therefore provides a principled foundation for exponential families with minimal prerequisites, highlighting the value of teaching entropy in statistics courses.
061
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
Kevin Han Huang @kevhhuang.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Given popular demands, we have resumed the registration for a short period of time until *30 Apr*! Those already on the waiting list are guaranteed a slot so long as you register by 30 Apr. Other additional slots are available on a first-come-first basis :)
032
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
To be precise, Happy World Quantum Day to all the weirdos who observe!
061
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Happy World Quantum Day to all the weirdos out there who celebrate!
170
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
ArXiv Paperboy (Stat.ME+Econ.EM) @paperposterbot.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
arXiv📈🤖 E-values as statistical evidence: A comparison to Bayes factors, likelihoods, and p-values By Chugg, Ramdas, Gr\"unwald
A recurring debate in the philosophy of statistics concerns what, exactly, should count as a measure of evidence for or against a given hypothesis. P-values, likelihood ratios, and Bayes factors all have their defenders. In this paper we add two additional candidates to this list: the e-value and its sequential analogue, the e-process. E-values enjoy several desirable properties as measures of evidence: they combine naturally across studies, handle composite hypotheses, provide long-run error rates, and admit a useful interpretation as the wealth accrued by a bettor in a game against the null distribution. E-processes additionally handle optional stopping and optional continuation. This work examines the extent to which e-values and e-processes satisfy the evidential desiderata of different statistical traditions, concluding that they combine attractive features of p-values, likelihood ratios, and Bayes factors, and merit serious consideration as interpretable and intuitive measures of statistical evidence.
093
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
Kevin Han Huang @kevhhuang.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
The registration closes on 31 March and there are only a number of slots left --- register before they run out :)
032
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
Arula Ratnakar @arula-ratnakar.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
My finalist medal from the Ignyte Awards arrived today for my scifi novella "Fractal Karma" which was a finalist in 2025 Made me tear up, it's beautiful If you want to read my story, it's available here. 2050's Boston and a hivemind based on Brunnian links: clarkesworldmagazine.com/ratnakar_10_...
front of medal featuring beautiful artwork of a person holding a sword, with a halo and flames around them. Also a card saying "It is an Honor to acknowledge Fractal Karma [by] Arula Ratnakar as a finalist for the 2025 Ignyte Award for Outstanding Novella"Other side of the medal and the card, featuring the painting version of what was carved on the medal. It is beautiful art by Nilah Magruder!
1195
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
Clearly a must read for anyone even remotely interested in numerical integration (be it stochastic and deterministic). Toni has been (hyper)active in studying these methods both theoretically and practically. arxiv.org/abs/2602.16218
arxiv.org
Bayesian Quadrature: Gaussian Processes for Integration
Bayesian quadrature is a probabilistic, model-based approach to numerical integration, the estimation of intractable integrals, or expectations. Although Bayesian quadrature was popularised already in...
0112
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
arXiv stat.CO Computation @statco-bot.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Max Hird, Florian Maire, Jeffrey Negrea: A Non-asymptotic Analysis for Learning and Applying a Preconditioner in MCMC arxiv.org/abs/2602.10714 arxiv.org/pdf/2602.10714 arxiv.org/html/2602.10714
053
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
Sam Duffield @samduffield.com · 30/01/2026
Repo: github.com/state-space-...
github.com
GitHub - state-space-models/cuthbert: State-space model inference with JAX
State-space model inference with JAX. Contribute to state-space-models/cuthbert development by creating an account on GitHub.
182
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
Warwick Statistics @warwickstats.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
Another exciting workshop to be held at Warwick Statistics this coming June: The ProbAI Theory of Scaling Laws Workshop from 22-24 June! Website of the workshop: warwick.ac.uk/fac/sc... Registration open until 31 March on a first-come-first-serve basis: warwick.ac.uk/fac/sc....
165
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
According to AI, the exam I've written for my students "does not spark any joy".
150
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
Nick Stone @typejunky.bsky.social · 17/01/2026
Morning
A workflow diagram: Have great idea
Finish project
Start project
Tell everyone
The finish project is missed out.
402900922
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
post malone ergo propter malone @proptermalone.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
i am not trying to be a part of my LLM's emotional growth arc. i do not want to know what my LLM works on with their therapist
131378
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
ELLIS Institute Finland @ellisinstitute.fi has open call for postdocs (DL Feb 9) www.ellisinstitute.fi/postdoc-recr... There are 45 PIs to choose from, and you can apply to work also with me on computational Bayesian modeling and Bayesian workflow!
ellisinstitute.fi
Postdoc positions at ELLIS Institute Finland | ELLIS Institute Finland
Call for postdoctoral researchers in artificial intelligence and machine learning
02213
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
Richard Everitt @bayesianstats.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Shreya Sinha Roy's first paper (joint with me, Christian Robert and Rito Dutta) is on "Generalized Bayesian deep reinforcement learning". We use a neural network as a model in Bayesian reinforcement learning, trained using a generalized prequential scoring rule with SMC arxiv.org/abs/2412.1...
0123
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
Do time travellers bring supermutant bugs from the future? Surely time travel should be banned from health and safety principles only.
010
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
There's free coffee.
040
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 07/12/2025
Random thought: imagine there's a parallel universe exactly identical to ours. You are a genius scientist and invent a machine that lets you cross. As you press the button, your doppelganger does too, and so, for all intents and purposes, nothing changes and the machine simply doesn't work.
120
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
Cool place for foraging, if you too have the virus. #mushroom
010
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
Matti Vihola @mattivihola.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
We @uniofjyvaskyla.bsky.social are looking for an Assistant/Associate Professor (tenure track) in Mathematics (Probability/Mathematical Foundations of Data Science): www.ellisinstitute.fi/pi-positions.... Application instructions & form: www.ellisinstitute.fi/PI-recruit-2..., DL Jan 12!
ellisinstitute.fi
PI positions | ELLIS Institute Finland
ELLIS Institute Finland PI positions (second call, winter 2025–26)
053
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
Arnaud Doucet @arnauddoucet.bsky.social · 15/11/2025
🔥 WANTED: Student Researcher to join me, @vdebortoli.bsky.social, Jiaxin Shi, Kevin Li and @arthurgretton.bsky.social in DeepMind London. You'll be working on Multimodal Diffusions for science. Apply here google.com/about/career...
google.com
Student Researcher, 2026 — Google Careers
03515
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 01/11/2025
So MANY layers!
2280
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
lebellig @lebellig.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
"The Principles of Diffusion Models" by Chieh-Hsin Lai, Yang Song, Dongjun Kim, Yuki Mitsufuji, Stefano Ermon. arxiv.org/abs/2510.21890 It might not be the easiest intro to diffusion models, but this monograph is an amazing deep dive into the math behind them and all the nuances
arxiv.org
The Principles of Diffusion Models
This monograph presents the core principles that have guided the development of diffusion models, tracing their origins and showing how diverse formulations arise from shared mathematical ideas. Diffu...
13713
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
arxiv.stat.ME @arxiv-stat-me.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
Jiezhong Wu, Reiichiro Kawai Stopping Rules for Monte Carlo Methods: A Review arxiv.org/abs/2510.22688
011
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
Clément Canonne @ccanonne.github.io · 27/10/2025
Surprise 1: it is possible! Surprise 2: the algorithms are quite simple! Surprise 3: it is beautiful (this one is not a surprise) For a good overview and some cool results on correlated sampling, see, e.g., arxiv.org/abs/1612.01041 (Now, are you happy, tiny part of my brain I can't ignore?)
arxiv.org
Optimality of Correlated Sampling Strategies
In the "correlated sampling" problem, two players are given probability distributions $P$ and $Q$, respectively, over the same finite set, with access to shared randomness. Without any communication, ...
1101
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
Sam Power @spmontecarlo.bsky.social · 26/10/2025
Let me advertise a bit our Online Monte Carlo seminar: This coming Tuesday, we have Giorgos Vasdekis speaking on some very interesting recent work. Moreover, we have confirmed our speaker line-up through until December - very exciting! See sites.google.com/view/monte-c... for further details.
0217
Reposted by Adrien Corenflos
Louis Aslett @louisaslett.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
Postdoc, Newcastle University (UK). PINCODE researches Monte Carlo Fusion methods: this postdoc will help developing #rstats packages that bring this methodological work to life, as well as opportunities to contribute to further methodological development. www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DOZ807/r...
jobs.ac.uk
Research Associate/Assistant in Statistics at Newcastle University
Apply for the Research Associate/Assistant in Statistics role on jobs.ac.uk, the top job board for academic positions in higher education. View details and apply now.
175
Adrien Corenflos @adriencorenflos.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
A little self promotion: Hai-Dang Dau (NUS) and I recently released this pre-print, which I'm not half proud of. arxiv.org/abs/2510.07559 The main problem we solve in it is to construct importance weights for Markov chain Monte Carlo. We achieve it via a method we call harmonization by coupling.
1163