Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 3hThe latest Interconnects plot - showing the exponential growth of the open model inference economy. Plot is showing the daily tokens processed by the leading companies, based on public disclosures (for Together, Baseten, and Fireworks) and the OpenRouter API. I underestimated OpenRouter's growth. 271
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 28/09/2026This is an excellent report on why full RSI / an intelligence explosion is fighting diminishing returns on many fronts, and not yet showing signs of happening. Really recommend reading. I wish I wrote it. While I agree with it, it could end up being wrong! www.noahpinion.blog/p/wheres-the...noahpinion.blogWhere’s the “intelligence explosion”?Ramez Naam gives a skeptic’s take on Recursive Self-Improvement. 14910
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 27/09/2026Fairly easy actions I use to reduce phone addiction: 1. Never bring phone in the bedroom 2. If going out to a meal walking distance from home, leave phone behind 3. Black and white mode toggle on Home Screen 4. Silly one: move phone out of pockets I like to put my hands in 2290
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Hearing AI regulation is in the air, especially with a misguided tone of “open dangerous, closed safe” so it felt timely to re-up this one. There are ways to make the AI industry safer without kneecapping transparency, education, and competition. www.interconnects.ai/p/banning-op...interconnects.aiBanning Open Source AI Would Be A MistakeThis post was originally an op-ed co-authored with Kevin Xu of Interconnected for a general, non-technical audience. 4308
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Debating RSI, the US-China Gap, and Jaggedness with JS Denain of Epoch AI Podcast #19 Substack: www.interconnects.ai/p/debating-r... YouTube: youtu.be/mE0__1EfVxw?...interconnects.aiDebating RSI, the US-China Gap, and Jaggedness with JS Denain of Epoch AIPodcast #19 0102
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Summary on the state of open models, reflecting on my Congressional testimony on the topic. From: www.interconnects.ai/p/the-curren... 0124
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 21/09/2026I was asked by Congressional staff to share my views on open models performance, adoption, and competition vis a vis China. Here’s my briefing with all our latest data and predictions for what comes next. www.interconnects.ai/p/the-curren...interconnects.aiThe current balance of power in open modelsThe expanded form of a testimony I prepared for Congress. 0316
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 20/09/2026My best guess is that for scaled RL most of the top Chinese AI labs are starting to use a lot of Huawei for inference and Nvidia for training (maybe not for weird architectures). As agent swarms, even more scaled post-training, etc becomes the norm, this will accelerate their domestic industry. 1181
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 19/09/2026A big problem with the AI forecasting discourse is that people ask “when will AI replace X job?” When in reality, AI will slowly replace a bunch of the sub-skills needed to do the job, but rarely all of them. 4255
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 19/09/2026Where I stand on RSI: A moderate's view on the recent events and trajectory of AI. I was underestimating how much we are likely to scale inference-time compute in the near future, but have not seen much to convince me that an intelligence explosion is near. www.interconnects.ai/p/where-i-st...interconnects.aiWhere I stand on RSIA moderate's view on the trajectory of AI. 0267
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 19/09/2026Seems like one of the most important research problems for CS academics is llm-supervised peer review. If we don’t solve it the academic institutions are toast. It seems easier than building new institutions. 7302
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 18/09/2026With the latest external hack of OpenAI via Claude, closed models continue to be the tip of the iceberg on AI risks, not open models. They have been 1) much easier to get started with, 2) more capable & 3) shipped with leaky safeguards. Finetuning open models to specific attacks is harder. 74312
Reposted by Nathan LambertMichael Noukhovitch @mnoukhov.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Is RL actually making your LLM better? Gains from RL are mostly on easy questions🤯 We're calling this the Matthew Effect for RL on LLMs. We then leverage async RL to solve harder problems by Never Giving Up! arxiv.org/abs/2609.13443 and mnoukhov.github.io/posts/ngu/ and check out thread below 🧵👇 1267
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 15/09/2026An basic idea in scaling RL: Can we allocate more compute to the harder problems? We did this: If your GRPO group has all wrong completions, sample more with probability P (~0.9) -- in search of more GRPO batches with nonzero gradient. It works! The paper: arxiv.org/abs/2609.13443 1598
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 13/09/2026Open-Source AI & Open Models Reading List How to get up to speed on open models and their implications. www.interconnects.ai/p/open-sourc...interconnects.aiOpen-Source AI & Open Models Reading ListHow to get up to speed on open models and their implications. 1414
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 11/09/2026A great read. I have similar feelings about how AI labs approach progress directly and without nurturing of scientific communities & intuition. The math research community went through the transition the fastest, so it was felt most. Other fields next. terrytao.wordpress.com/2026/09/11/a...terrytao.wordpress.comA Severe Misalignment of AI in MathematicsI am proud to be among the list of 25 initial signatories — all Fields Medallists — to the declaration below, which grew out of discussions between ourselves over the last week. We have… 44515
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 10/09/2026Was spending too much time reading Tweets, so set out to write down why one resignation turned the embers of AI fear into a wildfire -- and importantly square which claims I think are valid or hyperbole in the resulting discourse. www.interconnects.ai/p/one-resign... 1153
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 10/09/2026If you are looking for an alternate viewpoint today, which assumes AI models accelerate the process of AI research, but it doesn't result in rapid RSI and an explosion of near term risks: www.interconnects.ai/p/lossy-self...interconnects.aiLossy self-improvementThe case for why self-improvement is real but it doesn't lead to fast takeoff. 37011
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 09/09/2026In light of kind of insane AI safety discussions recently: 1. AI progress is very fast 2. we should be careful about how we roll out the tech 3. the world is not actively ending 815514
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 09/09/2026It's a common agreement among my friends not at OpenAI/Anthropic that people at the labs operate with a religious energy (Ant especially). It manifests very out of touch interactions, which carries into public comms here (e.g the recent quitting). Company cultures create this. 1283
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 09/09/2026When will average people feel AI’s impact? We’re <5 years into a compounding revolution which could take a century, and how the AI industry should manage this. www.interconnects.ai/p/when-will-...interconnects.aiWhen will average people feel AI’s impact?We’re <5 years into a compounding revolution which could take a century, and how the AI industry should manage this. 2161
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 08/09/2026Latest open artifacts (#24): Motif-3, GLM-5.3, Hy4-preview and open model licenses The open model ecosystem continues to expand in its breadth The frontier labs continue to be enveloped in mass drama. www.interconnects.ai/p/latest-ope... artifactshub.ai?issue=24interconnects.aiLatest open artifacts (#24): Motif-3, GLM-5.3, Hy4-preview and open model licensesThe open model ecosystem continues to expand in its breadth 1130
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 06/09/2026Haven’t run much this year but sent 22 miles in the mountains to check in on the engine and we still got it. End of a great vaca. 0290
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 24/08/2026Check out our latest open model data -- which models are mentioned in every arXiv ML paper since ChatGPT. A very fun weekend project with Codex! From idea is full dataset in <72hours. ~500K papers processed 😎 Plot: dashboard.interconnects.ai?axrange=all#... 5317
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 21/08/2026What's the best work you've consumed on open models, us v china AI, distillation, or related topics? Blogs, papers, videos, podcasts all welcome. 4122
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 17/08/2026Personal milestone: 1000 true fans of my newsletter Interconnects! Hitting a very long term goal feels great. I’m happy to get to be an independent voice in AI. Cultivating a paid base helps me commit to that longer term, and scale Interconnects’ impact. 1460
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 17/08/2026The core of open-source AI is that the training recipe itself is the closest analogue to Linux and open-source software. Model weights are transient. Nvidia is building their models in the open so everyone can build their own, avoiding a monopoly on intelligence www.interconnects.ai/p/teaching-e...interconnects.aiTeaching Everyone to Fish for TokensNvidia wants you building your own model, not buying from Anthropic/OpenAI. 4375
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 14/08/2026GLM 5.3 notes and why we should stop being so surprised about these very strong Chinese models (most of this is talking myself through some of my denial -- yes, these models are the real deal). www.interconnects.ai/p/glm-53-how...interconnects.aiGLM-5.3: How Chinese labs keep stride with the frontierHint: It’s really not a distillation story. 0195
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 14/08/2026Farewell Seattle! It's been such a wonderful life/career stage for me. Onto new adventures (and mountains). 1960
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 12/08/2026I made a short video covering the history of Shoggoths, as used as a post-training meme and also deeper metaphor. Wild to think the new generation of people working post-training may not even know about them 😱. www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xaa...youtube.comThe Mascot of Post-Training (and Lore) | Post-training Course Bonus VideoThis is a quick, fun video on why we've been using these creatures through all of our thumbnails! The Shoggoths are core to how post-training was discussed, as RLHF and everything that followed sort… 0324
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 12/08/2026My latest piece is a little verbose, but I think it is really a nice example digging into a sort of knowledge work (and arguably science) that the models really aren't close to solving today -- writing something like a AI textbook in a well-known field. www.interconnects.ai/p/i-wrote-an...interconnects.aiI wrote an AI textbook — how long until AI can do it better?Reflections on AI's writing ability and how AI models get more capable. 2233
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 12/08/2026Today, models haven't gotten much better at non-fiction/technical writing. This has me worried for AI models' abilities to do genuine open-ended science, one of the core posited benefits of models. I wrote an AI textbook — how long until AI can do it better? www.interconnects.ai/p/i-wrote-an... 2351
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 10/08/2026My book is 50% off on Manning until August 19th to celebrate the launch (code PBLambert). Here are 5 things you'll learn + a preamble on how you should use it! Here: www.interconnects.ai/p/5-useful-t... 3293
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 09/08/202610 lessons from the hacks Musings on model alignment, what determines safety, and where we go from here. www.interconnects.ai/p/lessons-fr... List of topics is belowinterconnects.aiLessons from the hacksMusings on model alignment, what determines safety, and where we go from here. 1204
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 07/08/2026Educational content summer is over, back to grinding research and more of my usual writing again. ⛵️ 0210
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 07/08/2026My summer project is done! A 20 video, free course on post-training to accompany my book is all on YouTube with slides open for modification & re-use. Plus, the book is 50% off right now with the code PBLambert on Manning to celebrate the launch. YouTube playlist: www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQPi... 1688
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 07/08/2026This video on the HuggingFace-OpenAI incident, calmly presented by OpenAI researchers (Eric is great btw, hi Eric), is one of the best uses of your time all year in AI. I'll probably rewatch tomorrow to write about it more. www.youtube.com/watch?v=87Dy...youtube.comBlack Hat USA 2026: The 'Breaking' News: The OpenAI–Hugging Face IncidentThe 'Breaking' News: The OpenAI–Hugging Face Incident - A Technical Reconstruction and Its Implications for AI When AI Goes Rogue. The Incident That Changed Everything. An OpenAI evaluation agent… 27410
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 06/08/2026The final lecture of my course is an intro to character training! Character training... * Has potential for high real world impact * Clearly used extensively at frontier labs * Almost no empirical literature exists * More accessible on academic compute www.youtube.com/watch?v=xECW...youtube.comAn Introduction to Character Training | Post Training Course, Lecture 13The last lecture was one I was most excited about, an introduction to character training -- the methods for crafting a model's personality. This topic is so crucial for how humans engage with the… 1544
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 05/08/2026My evaluation lecture! I walk you through different evaluation eras I've been a part of, from prompting GPT-3 as elaborate autocomplete to today's complex agentic sandboxes (I expand on agentic more than any other topic, drawing on @Florian Brand's insights). YT: www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFaf...youtube.comHow Evaluation Has Evolved with Frontier Model Progress | Post-Training Course, Lecture 12In this lecture I walk you through different evaluation eras, from prompting GPT-3 as elaborate autocomplete to today's complex agentic sandboxes. This lecture is a birds eye view of how evaluation… 1556
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 05/08/2026Major restructuring at Gemini (Jef Dean out, Hassabis no longer CEO). This story will be studied forever as the incumbent with all the advantages not being able to get going. P.s. OpenAI accomplished their original goal. 4534
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 05/08/2026If you're teaching a class on post-training (or part of a course) and my book, slides, code or videos don't help you, please lmk how I can improve it! Has been a ton of work getting everything done and part of the ROI is hope that it helps more education work grows around LLMs. 0272
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 04/08/2026Another quick q&a video as I wrap up the course soon. These ended up all being on various details in getting a post-training recipe right. www.youtube.com/watch?v=6StK...youtube.comPost-Training Recipe Questions Answered | Q&A 3, Post-Training Course (w/ The RLHF Book)In this Q&A I answer 6 questions and post-training recipes, how to think about trade-offs, and how the different loss functions work. Definitely a jam-packed and bit random, but fun nonetheless!… 1113
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 03/08/2026Introducing our Artifacts Hub and Adoption Dashboard Scaling our curation and measurement of the open ecosystem as we feel the acceleration of releases. Artifacts Hub: artifactshub.ai Adoption Dashboard: dashboard.interconnects.ai Explanation: www.interconnects.ai/p/introducin... 0132
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 02/08/2026Artifacts 23: Laguna S2.1, Inkling, & Kimi K3 show the utility of open models on the Pareto frontier. In this issue, a total of 24 models from june/july you should be aware of. www.interconnects.ai/p/latest-ope... 1210
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 31/07/2026The pace of progress on models from so many organizations at once is genuinely incredible. Building LLMs isn't driven by rare secrets, but consistent effort, mass capital, and effective organization design. It is great that know-how of such a powerful technology is diffused. 0454
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 30/07/2026Another new lecture! Lecture 11 is a tool-use/function calling/agentic 101. I almost skipped this one, as this chapter started as the only skill-specific topic in the book, but since writing it tool-use has only become more foundational to modern models. 2251
Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 30/07/2026Frontier labs will be viable businesses by being able to integrate and optimize inference at lower cost/performance than most other models. They'll have a margin advantage on open models for the foreseeable future. This is one of those flex's imo and I doubt they're losing money. 1241