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Robert Rust

@rrucs.bsky.social
300 followers 93 following 246 posts

China Analyst, Union of Concerned Scientists Global Security Program. US-China relations, especially on nukes, arms control and the like. Views my own, likes/RTs ≠ endorsements. I'm not here representing Hardbodies.

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Robert Rust
Union of Concerned Scientists @ucs.org · 23/09/2026
“President Trump’s statement to the UN clearly constitutes an implied threat to use overwhelming nuclear force against Iran and the Iranian people broadly. This would be a nuclear genocide. Any threat to use nuclear weapons is unacceptable, and his decision to do so should be strongly condemned..."
ucs.org
President Trump’s Implied Threat of Nuclear Annihilation Increases Global Risks of Nuclear Proliferation
President Trump’s threats to annihilate Iran with nuclear weapons are dangerous, making it likelier that other countries seek nuclear weapons for protection.
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
My first for @bulletinatomic.bsky.social, a deep dive on a CCTV doc about China's missile silos and thoughts on what a direct reference to the project in prominent media means for our understanding of China's nuclear thinking: thebulletin.org/2026/09/here...
thebulletin.org
Here's why China acknowledged its new missile silos in a documentary
A state media documentary featuring a PLA missile engineer provides the first semi-official acknowledgment of China's vast ICBM silo fields. By highlighting the high-level rush to complete the project...
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Reposted by Robert Rust
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists @thebulletin.org · 15/09/2026
A state media documentary provides the first semi-official acknowledgment of China's ICBM silo fields. By highlighting the rush to complete the project, Beijing signals that this expansion is driven by a need to secure a second-strike deterrent against US missile defenses, writes @rrucs.bsky.social.
thebulletin.org
Here's why China acknowledged its new missile silos in a documentary
A state media documentary featuring a PLA missile engineer provides the first semi-official acknowledgment of China's vast ICBM silo fields. By highlighting the high-level rush to complete the…
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Reposted by Robert Rust
François Diaz-Maurin @francoisdm.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Why did China just break its silence on its massive new ICBM silo fields? In @thebulletin.org, Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social breaks down a recent Chinese state media documentary that marks the first semi-official acknowledgment of the silo project. 🧵
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Join the Union of Concerned Scientists, New Diplomacy Initiative (JP), and Korea Diplomacy Plaza tonight at 8pm EST for a webinar featuring US, Japanese, South Korean and Chinese expert perspectives on the Iran War! Register here for a Zoom link: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
us06web.zoom.us
Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: East Asian perspectives on the Iran War - East Asia Quadrilateral Dialogue . After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webi...
Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: East Asian perspectives on the Iran War - East Asia Quadrilateral Dialogue . After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webi...
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Reposted by Robert Rust
Kylie Eleison @gonebabygone.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Yes popular opinion on an issue that directly affects hundreds of communities down to the air they breathe is more urgent than on an issue that affects so few people that it currently centers on the WNBA, a league with no trans athletes
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
static.klipy.com
Chef Expertly Stir-Frying Food
ALT: Chef Expertly Stir-Frying Food
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Reposted by Robert Rust
Brian Finucane @bcfinucane.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
“Within minutes of a strike on a school full of children on the first day of the war against Iran, Pentagon officials knew that the U.S. military was responsible for leveling the site.” More than a ballroom or arch, these dead kids will be this president’s legacy. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/16/u...
nytimes.com
After U.S. Strike on Iranian School, Months Pass Without Answers
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Reposted by Robert Rust
Karthik Sankaran @rajakorman.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
It’s the healthcare!!!
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
So that story about the Apache getting hit by a drone is made up right?
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
You know what, fair.
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Reposted by Robert Rust
Wesley Morgan @wesleymorgan.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Wonder if this is the first time the word “cuckolds” has appeared on a .gov website
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Some thoughts on Trump's visit to Beijing. The main takeaway: China accepting a framework of "managed competition" for the bilateral relationship is new. Whether we'll actually get long-term stability remains to be seen. blog.ucs.org/robert-rust/...
blog.ucs.org
Trump and Xi Take a First Step Toward Better Relations
During their May summit in Beijing, the US and Chinese leaders agreed to pursue "constructive strategic stability"—a vague term with important historical context.
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Reposted by Robert Rust
Nick Kodama @nickkodama.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
lmfao who explained the thucydides trap to him
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Batting way below the Mendoza line on guessing whether a meeting or conference will be a tie/no tie vibe
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Masterful gambit, exhibit 54836 or something.
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Lol
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Reposted by Robert Rust
Union of Concerned Scientists @ucs.org · 06/05/2026
"There are lessons from the Taiwan Strait Crisis of the 1950s that can help reopen the Strait of Hormuz and rescue the global economy," writes @gkucs.bsky.social in his latest blog:
blog.ucs.org
Iran and Taiwan: A Tale of Two Straits
The Taiwan Strait crisis of the 1950s holds lessons for the United States in its ongoing war against Iran.
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
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Reposted by Robert Rust
Joel @snufkinlib.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
trying to play peekaboo with my child but he's a European diplomat: me: where'd daddy go? baby: we must articulate a post-daddy vision of strategic autonomy me: peekaboo! baby: my historic relationship with my father is stable despite recent troubles
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
This dang phone.
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Calling my shot: resale ticket prices to the average group stage game will crater a few weeks out from the tournament, and most games will still be 2/3rds full at best.
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Reposted by Robert Rust
404 Media @404media.co · 22/04/2026
Trump’s proposed 2027 budget would almost double the budget for plutonium pits, the chemical filled metal sphere inside a nuclear warhead that kicks off the explosion in a nuclear weapon. @evystadium.bsky.social has more. Story by @mjgault.bsky.social: www.404media.co/trump-2027-b...
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Reposted by Robert Rust
Nikkei Asia (Official) @asia.nikkei.com · 23/04/2026
China’s exports of solar equipment in March were equivalent to Spain's entire solar capacity, hitting a record as high energy prices have countries seeking alternative power source. trib.al/QBf0zZy
trib.al
Iran war pushes China's solar exports to record high in March
Single month's shipments equivalent to Spain's entire solar capacity, report says
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Eyes rolled back a full 180 degrees at this sentence in ChinaTalk's Dwarkesh/Jensen reaction
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
New article with my friend and colleague Jiang Tianjiao argues that we need to formalize and expand "human in the loop" + boost US-China engagement on reducing risks from AI-nuclear entanglement by agreeing on no nuclear-capable autonomous systems. thediplomat.com/2026/04/the-...
thediplomat.com
The US and China Need to Talk About Unmanned Nukes
“Human-in-the-loop” is not enough.
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Reposted by Robert Rust
Dylan Spaulding @dkspaulding.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Secretary of Energy Chris Wright on plutonium pit production: "Maybe the original plan we laid out wasn't ideal, maybe we could be smarter.” Its also full-speed ahead at LANL, which will be asked to operate at or near max capacity for the foreseeable future, which is dangerous and unnecessary.
exchangemonitor.com
EnergySec: Los Alamos “actually manufacturing pits,” goal of 100 in admin, 80 per year by 2030 - ExchangeMonitor
Secretary of Energy Chris Wright confirmed Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico has “just begun” pit production in testimony Wednesday to the
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Reposted by Robert Rust
Karthik Sankaran @rajakorman.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
TORTILLA
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Reposted by Robert Rust
jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 02/03/2026
One fun fact about the NYT op-ed section is that it was created specifically in response to Spiro Agnew's complaints about liberal media bias. So in a sense, the job of an op-ed page is indeed to publish the "right" opinions, as in, right-wing
Agnew’s point about columnists and editorials being overwhelmingly
liberal and anti-Nixon merited serious consideration inside the two
papers. It was an issue that the New York Times was already wrestling
with, but it became a greater priority after Agnew’s speeches. Deputy
editorial page editor Abe Raskin felt they could address the issue without
changing the political orientation of the editorials or columnists. “The most effective answer to criticism of the Agnew variety,” Raskin wrote
in a memo to Punch Sulzberger, would be to create an op-ed page, print
more letters to the editor, and appoint an ombudsman—adding, “All
these are things we should have done on our own initiative long ago.”69
Sulzberger acted upon only one of those three suggestions: in 1970 the

New York Times launched an op-ed page. In addition to providing addi-
tional space for staff columnists, the page showcased think pieces from

outside contributors of various political persuasions—mostly academics
and intellectuals, who tended to occupy the center-left. Op-ed (short for
“opposite the editorial page”) quickly became one of the best-read parts of
the paper, but it did little to change the overall ideological tilt of the
opinion pages.70
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
It’s great how willing these guys are to be unabashedly stupid out loud
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Reposted by Robert Rust
Wesley Morgan @wesleymorgan.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
Always exciting to see the Avignon Papacy in the news
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
If I understand correctly, this is what became of the Replicator Initiative.
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
KMT boss Cheng Li-wen has arrived on the mainland, specifically to Nanjing via Shanghai. "The KMT will continue to adhere to the 92 consensus, oppose "Taiwan independence," promote peaceful cooperation between both sides of the strait." politics.people.com.cn/n1/2026/0407...
politics.people.com.cn
郑丽文率团抵达大陆开始参访行程--时政--人民网
新华社南京4月7日电(记者赵博、王承昊)应中共中央和习近平总书记邀请,中国国民党主席郑丽文7日率国民党访问团经上海抵达南京,开始大陆参访行程。郑丽文抵达南京后表示,感谢习近平总书记,感谢大陆方面热情接
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Reposted by Robert Rust
Zach Everson @zacheverson.com · 04/04/2026
NEW: Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff’s net worth increased 15%—to $2.3B—in the past year, largely due to World Liberty Financial. That’s the crypto venture his family co-owns with the Trumps and a firm backed by UAE’s national security adviser. @giacomotognini.bsky.social for Forbes
forbes.com
Peace Envoy Steve Witkoff’s Fortune Gets Bump From Trump And Musk
The real estate mogul-turned-diplomat is 15% richer than he was a year ago thanks to his crypto venture with the Trump family and his stake in Musk’s SpaceX.
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 04/04/2026
Keeping a close eye on all the people who are disturbed by the war in Iran not because of its illegality or barbarity, but because they feel it’s not adequately planned or strategically sound.
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Now that US intelligence is walking back the idea of China prepping to be ready to take Taiwan by 2027, I think it's worth asking if Xi ever actually said that to high-level political or military leadership. "William Burns said he did" is not really enough for me to go on.
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Reposted by Robert Rust
Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Narrator: In fact, it was always a binary choice between the JCPOA and war. The people who opposed it were, in fact, warmongers who believed the sooner that war came, the better.
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Reposted by Robert Rust
Andrew Facini @andrewfacini.com · 01/04/2026
@kingstonareif.bsky.social hits the nerve of what's worrying me so much about the perceptions that are coming out of Iran. Running toward NSNW now will strongly signal falling confidence in US conventionals, and build a glidepath to nuclear escalation if, say, China, takes us up on that perception.
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
This December SCFR testimony from Anthropic on why Chinese AI scary is a fun read after their messy DoDivorce: www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
foreign.senate.gov
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Reposted by Robert Rust
Matt Novak @paleofuture.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
“My meeting with the Highly Respected President of China, President Xi Jinping, which was originally postponed due to our Military operation in Iran, has been rescheduled, and will take place in Beijing on May 14th and 15th.”
Trump: My meeting with the Highly Respected President of China, President Xi Jinping, which was originally postponed due to our Military operation in Iran, has been rescheduled, and will take place in Beijing on May 14th and 15th. First Lady Melania and I will also host President Xi and Madame Peng for a reciprocal visit in Washington, D.C., at a later date, this year. Our Representatives are finalizing preparations for these Historic Visits. I look very much forward to spending time with President Xi in what will be, I am sure, a Monumental Event. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J.
TRUMP
16 ReTruths 47 Likes
3/25/26, 11:17 AM
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Reposted by Robert Rust
Chill Pill @chillpill411.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
When I shoot you down, I shot you down. When you shoot me down, I make an emergency landing 😇
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
"Most revealing was disagreement over timing...These unresolved debates matter b/c they reflect legit uncertainties re: Beijing’s decision calculus. US planners who assume they know China’s timeline/red lines are deceiving themselves." warontherocks.com/2025/10/a-wa...
warontherocks.com
A Wargame to Take Taiwan, from China’s Perspective
In August 2025, 25 international experts gathered at Syracuse University to do something unusual: plan China's invasion of Taiwan. For two days,
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
@gkucs.bsky.social on Rubio's promise to "unleash Chiang." The ironic part of this weird game of telephone is that HW Bush used "unleash Chiang" to mean an unserious threat, a nod to past China Hawks clamoring for the US to support Taiwan in retaking the mainland. blog.ucs.org/gregory-kula...
blog.ucs.org
Rubio’s Promise to “Unleash Chiang” Won’t Land Well in China
The secretary of state's odd reference to regime change in China likely damaged prospects for nuclear arms talks.
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Reposted by Robert Rust
Matthew Gault @mjgault.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
This may sound insane but I can't help but see 15 years of unregulated Counter Strike connected child casinos as setting a dark precedent a lot of people ignored
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
At an event in October listening to a panel on Korea, asked a former State/DoD Korea expert what they thought about RoK wanting control of its own forces in wartime. They said well, Korea has a history of instability, so we're worried they might start a war that sucks USFK in.
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
Called it
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Reposted by Robert Rust
Karthik Sankaran @rajakorman.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
The banter outcome is the US AI competitive landscape starting to look like the Chinese EV competitive landscape.
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