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Robert Rust

@rrucs.bsky.social
301 followers 93 following 247 posts

China Analyst, Union of Concerned Scientists Global Security Program. US-China relations, especially on nukes, arms control and the like. Views my own, likes/RTs ≠ endorsements. I'm not here representing Hardbodies.

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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 7h
The acronyms are becoming dangerously crude
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Nick Kodama 🌳👻 @nickkodama.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
good, if true www.cnn.com/2026/10/06/p...
cnn.com
US and China discussing reciprocal nuclear site visits amid concerns about a new arms race | CNN Politics
The Trump administration has discussed beginning reciprocal nuclear site visits with China and plans to continue pushing for that possibility during in-person meetings in the coming months, according ...
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Union of Concerned Scientists @ucs.org · 23/09/2026
“President Trump’s statement to the UN clearly constitutes an implied threat to use overwhelming nuclear force against Iran and the Iranian people broadly. This would be a nuclear genocide. Any threat to use nuclear weapons is unacceptable, and his decision to do so should be strongly condemned..."
ucs.org
President Trump’s Implied Threat of Nuclear Annihilation Increases Global Risks of Nuclear Proliferation
President Trump’s threats to annihilate Iran with nuclear weapons are dangerous, making it likelier that other countries seek nuclear weapons for protection.
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
*institutions more so than systems
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
My impression is that the main argument is it would lead to a never-ending cycle of politically-motivated prosecutions. As if that makes any sense/what does that tell you about the health of the system?
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Thank you!
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
My first for @bulletinatomic.bsky.social, a deep dive on a CCTV doc about China's missile silos and thoughts on what a direct reference to the project in prominent media means for our understanding of China's nuclear thinking: thebulletin.org/2026/09/here...
thebulletin.org
Here's why China acknowledged its new missile silos in a documentary
A state media documentary featuring a PLA missile engineer provides the first semi-official acknowledgment of China's vast ICBM silo fields. By highlighting the high-level rush to complete the project...
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Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists @thebulletin.org · 15/09/2026
A state media documentary provides the first semi-official acknowledgment of China's ICBM silo fields. By highlighting the rush to complete the project, Beijing signals that this expansion is driven by a need to secure a second-strike deterrent against US missile defenses, writes @rrucs.bsky.social.
thebulletin.org
Here's why China acknowledged its new missile silos in a documentary
A state media documentary featuring a PLA missile engineer provides the first semi-official acknowledgment of China's vast ICBM silo fields. By highlighting the high-level rush to complete the…
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François Diaz-Maurin @francoisdm.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Why did China just break its silence on its massive new ICBM silo fields? In @thebulletin.org, Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social breaks down a recent Chinese state media documentary that marks the first semi-official acknowledgment of the silo project. 🧵
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Join the Union of Concerned Scientists, New Diplomacy Initiative (JP), and Korea Diplomacy Plaza tonight at 8pm EST for a webinar featuring US, Japanese, South Korean and Chinese expert perspectives on the Iran War! Register here for a Zoom link: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
us06web.zoom.us
Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: East Asian perspectives on the Iran War - East Asia Quadrilateral Dialogue . After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webi...
Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: East Asian perspectives on the Iran War - East Asia Quadrilateral Dialogue . After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webi...
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Innsmouth Looksmaxxing @gonebabygone.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Yes popular opinion on an issue that directly affects hundreds of communities down to the air they breathe is more urgent than on an issue that affects so few people that it currently centers on the WNBA, a league with no trans athletes
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Surely if contract workers delivering packages insanely quickly is such an amazing innovation, it would still be so if they had to raise prices by a buck or two?
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Dave Weigel lol
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
static.klipy.com
Chef Expertly Stir-Frying Food
ALT: Chef Expertly Stir-Frying Food
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Brian Finucane @bcfinucane.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
“Within minutes of a strike on a school full of children on the first day of the war against Iran, Pentagon officials knew that the U.S. military was responsible for leveling the site.” More than a ballroom or arch, these dead kids will be this president’s legacy. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/16/u...
nytimes.com
After U.S. Strike on Iranian School, Months Pass Without Answers
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Karthik Sankaran @rajakorman.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
It’s the healthcare!!!
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Gotta be extremely wary of the agendas of people who push this narrative
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Seems a logical conclusion to reach when you keep getting bombed in the middle of negotiations!
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
So that story about the Apache getting hit by a drone is made up right?
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
You know what, fair.
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Wesley Morgan @wesleymorgan.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Wonder if this is the first time the word “cuckolds” has appeared on a .gov website
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Some thoughts on Trump's visit to Beijing. The main takeaway: China accepting a framework of "managed competition" for the bilateral relationship is new. Whether we'll actually get long-term stability remains to be seen. blog.ucs.org/robert-rust/...
blog.ucs.org
Trump and Xi Take a First Step Toward Better Relations
During their May summit in Beijing, the US and Chinese leaders agreed to pursue "constructive strategic stability"—a vague term with important historical context.
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Unfortunately this is increasingly becoming the “serious position,” as far as I can tell based entirely on vibes.
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
High school friend lives in the North Bank, was at a party there a few years ago. Could see Emirates from the balcony.
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Jerome Powell declines to lower rates, hey hey hey
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Hey it got me good lol
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
I think it serves its purpose in galvanizing the support that had gotten so stale and stagnant pre-Arteta for sure. As for your second point, don't even get me started.
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
Traditions have to start somewhere, the reflexive tendency to treat anything new as cringe and contrived is somewhat understandable but also just something people need to get over. It took me a little while, but I love that song now.
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Interesting that the author doesn't mention ISIS-K at all, considering they are by many accounts actively recruiting TIP/ETIM and increasingly targeting Chinese interests in the region.
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Nick Kodama 🌳👻 @nickkodama.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
lmfao who explained the thucydides trap to him
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
““Up the Ra,” Nigel?”
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Batting way below the Mendoza line on guessing whether a meeting or conference will be a tie/no tie vibe
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Masterful gambit, exhibit 54836 or something.
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Lol
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
I’m willing to bury my hatchet about MLS not getting midfield run earlier if it means he gets a serious shot there long term. Full strength rotation of Rice Zub MLS Merino for next year should have us covered at 6/8.
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Union of Concerned Scientists @ucs.org · 06/05/2026
"There are lessons from the Taiwan Strait Crisis of the 1950s that can help reopen the Strait of Hormuz and rescue the global economy," writes @gkucs.bsky.social in his latest blog:
blog.ucs.org
Iran and Taiwan: A Tale of Two Straits
The Taiwan Strait crisis of the 1950s holds lessons for the United States in its ongoing war against Iran.
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Not gonna go read the piece, but they are probably correct that a lot of legacy platforms and weapons are becoming somewhat obsolete. Overall though it’s mainly what you said.
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Joel @snufkinlib.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
trying to play peekaboo with my child but he's a European diplomat: me: where'd daddy go? baby: we must articulate a post-daddy vision of strategic autonomy me: peekaboo! baby: my historic relationship with my father is stable despite recent troubles
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Would have been soft but it’s literally re-reffing, as far from a clear and obvious mistake as you can get
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
It’s all krieg to me
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
This dang phone.
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
To be fair, the liberal position he is laying out basically fits 1:1 with what Yglesias has been saying for the past two months.
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Calling my shot: resale ticket prices to the average group stage game will crater a few weeks out from the tournament, and most games will still be 2/3rds full at best.
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404 Media @404media.co · 22/04/2026
Trump’s proposed 2027 budget would almost double the budget for plutonium pits, the chemical filled metal sphere inside a nuclear warhead that kicks off the explosion in a nuclear weapon. @evystadium.bsky.social has more. Story by @mjgault.bsky.social: www.404media.co/trump-2027-b...
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Good point.
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Nikkei Asia (Official) @asia.nikkei.com · 23/04/2026
China’s exports of solar equipment in March were equivalent to Spain's entire solar capacity, hitting a record as high energy prices have countries seeking alternative power source. trib.al/QBf0zZy
trib.al
Iran war pushes China's solar exports to record high in March
Single month's shipments equivalent to Spain's entire solar capacity, report says
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Would love to engage in this discourse but I’m afraid there’s no way I’m gonna be reading anything with that byline
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Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Eyes rolled back a full 180 degrees at this sentence in ChinaTalk's Dwarkesh/Jensen reaction
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