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Rob Arthur

@robarthur.bsky.social
2.2K followers 338 following 192 posts

Data journalist, data scientist, freelancer published many places: WSJ, NYT, the Atlantic, the Guardian, etc. Before that: staff at FiveThirtyEight Before that: an evolutionary geneticist.

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Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Quick article at BP about how the landscape of Japanese talent flowing into MLB has changed. It was hard to translate and project from NPB based on outcome metrics; it's much easier with things like fastball velocity and bat speed. www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...
Chart showing a spike in Japanese-born players' playing time in MLB over the last couple of years.
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Baseball Prospectus @baseballprospectus.com · 23/09/2026
This Wave Of Japanese Talent Is The Beginning Of A Pipeline by Robert Arthur (@robarthur.bsky.social) www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...
baseballprospectus.com
This Wave Of Japanese Talent Is The Beginning Of A Pipeline | Baseball Prospectus
This time, it’s not just a few stars.
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Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
10 years ago, a Trump supporter named Marco Gutierrez declared that without policy changes, there would be "a taco truck on every corner." A decade on, tacos are the fastest-rising culinary format in the country, much to most everyone's delight. no-little-plans.ghost.io/a-taco-truck...
no-little-plans.ghost.io
“A Taco Truck On Every Corner” Is Coming True
When Marco Gutierrez, co-founder of Latinos for Trump, declared that “If you don’t do something about it, you’re going to have taco trucks on every corner,” it read to some like a threat, to others a ...
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Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Almost exactly 10 years since the famous warning that there would soon be "a taco truck on every corner," they are indeed the biggest increase in restaurant format in the US, per Foursquare's data. no-little-plans.ghost.io/a-taco-truck...
no-little-plans.ghost.io
“A Taco Truck On Every Corner” Is Coming True
When Marco Gutierrez, co-founder of Latinos for Trump, declared that “If you don’t do something about it, you’re going to have taco trucks on every corner,” it read to some like a threat, to others a ...
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Saberseminar @saberseminar.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Thanks to all of our attendees and presenters for another successful Saberseminar! You guys are the main attraction and the community that makes our event welcoming, fun, and interesting, and we are so grateful to all of you. ❤️
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Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
they tried forcing science to align with ideology in the USSR. It didn't go well. www.theatlantic.com/science/arch...
theatlantic.com
The Soviet Era's Deadliest Scientist Is Regaining Popularity in Russia
Trofim Lysenko’s spurious research prolonged famines that killed millions. So why is a fringe movement praising his legacy?
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Saberseminar @saberseminar.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
We'll be converting all ticket sales to *late registrations* (at a higher fee) soon. Buy your tickets now! events.ticketleap.com/tickets/sabe...
events.ticketleap.com
Saberseminar 2026 - At Illinois Tech
Sabermetrics, Scouting, and the Science of Baseball is the premier baseball analytics event. We get front office insiders, scientists, scouts, and sabermetricians into the same room and have them talk...
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Saberseminar @saberseminar.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Excited about Saberseminar but not able to make it this year? Always wanted to buy a sweatshirt, mug, or hat with the logo? Check out our online store for another way of supporting the event. If there's any particular color/item combo you want, let us know. www.bonfire.com/store/sabers...
bonfire.com
Saberseminar | Official Merchandise | Bonfire
Check out Saberseminar on Bonfire and shop official merchandise today! Featuring limited edition custom apparel, printed with care in the USA just for you.
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Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Using the DOJ's own data, I found that they're pursuing fewer criminal charges that aren't related to immigration. They're winning the cases they are pursuing less often, and at least in DC, it looks like they are declining to charge some serious offenses. no-little-plans.ghost.io/trumps-doj-i...
no-little-plans.ghost.io
Trump’s DOJ Is Pursuing Fewer Non-Immigration Criminal Charges
The Department of Justice is the federal government’s main law enforcement apparatus, and it has shed thousands of personnel since the beginning of Trump’s second term. There are fewer ATF (Alcohol, T...
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Saberseminar @saberseminar.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Get your tickets now! blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/...
blogs.fangraphs.com
Saberseminar 2026 Is August 29-30 in Chicago!
Tickets are now available for the conference.
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Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
An underappreciated aspect of Trump's immigration crackdown is that the DOJ has a lot less time to spend on what it used to do--prosecuting more serious crimes. We're starting to see the first impacts: a reduction in non-immigration-related charges. no-little-plans.ghost.io/trumps-doj-i...
no-little-plans.ghost.io
Trump’s DOJ Is Pursuing Fewer Non-Immigration Criminal Charges
The Department of Justice is the federal government’s main law enforcement apparatus, and it has shed thousands of personnel since the beginning of Trump’s second term. There are fewer ATF (Alcohol, T...
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 04/07/2026
1. A bit of evolutionary biology. I'm really intrigued by a new perspective piece from Steve Frank that explores connections between how natural selection creates systems that generalize and recent work in machine learning about the surprising capabilities of massively overparameterized systems.
academic.oup.com
Generalization as the great leap in evolvability: insights from machine learning
Abstract. Natural selection encodes learned information in the genome. Learned solutions may be tuned specifically to past challenges, failing in altered e
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Ken Morales @kbmorales.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
1/ I looked at 20 years of Supreme Court decisions and found that for the first time, all nine justices decided more cases by secret ballot — aka the “shadow docket” — than it did for cases argued in open court last term. 🧵:
A line chart shows the number of Supreme Court decisions on the merits docket versus the shadow docket from the 2003-04 term to the 2024-25 term. The merits docket decisions trend downward over time, ending at 56 decisions, while the shadow docket decisions rise sharply in the 2018-19 term and surpass the merits docket in the last term at 63 decisions.
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Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
this is such great work from @bwd.bsky.social. He was kind enough to share some other emails where Sword et al. discussed my work, which was funny. Major props to Bradford for thinking to use public records law to get at some of this correspondence.
Email from Morgan Sword to Lloyd Smith and others asking about whether they've seen Rob Arthur's article.
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Steve Vladeck @stevevladeck.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
This passage from @davidlat.bsky.social perfectly captures the false dichotomy you see so often from the Supreme Court's defenders: The Court is held out as "independent" because it doesn't *always* rule for Trump. That whitewashes (1) how often it *does*; & (2) its bad behavior in non-Trump cases.
Screenshot from David Lat's "Original Jurisdiction" newsletter that reads:

Runner-up for Judge of the Week: Chief Justice Roberts. The end of a Term brings with it evaluations of the Supreme Court—and, of course, the Chief Justice as its leader. For critiques of the current conservative Court—and, implicitly, Chief Justice Roberts—see the views of Professors Kate Shaw and Steve Vladeck in this spirited debate in The Times (gift link).

I call it a “spirited debate” because of the vigorous pushback that Shaw and Vladeck received from Professor Will Baude (who clerked for the Chief). See also this post at Executive Functions by Professor Jack Goldsmith—no fan of the Trump administration—titled “The Powerful, Resilient, Independent Supreme Court.” Or if Goldsmith is too conservative a commentator for your tastes, check out this staff editorial by The Washington Post (gift link), “The Supreme Court’s not-so-MAGA majority.”
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Bradford William Davis @bwd.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
In 2019, an MLB exec told Rawlings the league wanted its baseball to perform to what he called a ‘target leaguewide home run rate’ The next year, MLB started making and using two baseballs in at least three consecutive seasons. What could this mean for the 2026 rocket ball? issa new [eyeblack]
readeyeblack.com
Did you know about MLB's dinger quota?
eyeblack found a league executive's instructions to achieve a 'target leaguewide homeun rate.' Here's what it says about 2026's Juiced Ball 2.0
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Ken Arneson @kenarneson.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
The weather in this afternoon's game between France and Paraguay in Philadelphia will be interesting, so I made a video about it for the brand new @weatherapplied YouTube Channel. If you want to see us make more such videos, subscribe to the channel. www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRA5...
youtube.com
WAM Weather Impact Preview: France v Paraguay, Philadelphia Stadium, July 4, 2026
YouTube video by Weather Applied Metrics
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rahaeli @rahaeli.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
In other "excellent news from religious bodies", the US Presbyterian General Assembly has formally voted to start the process to (correctly) declare white Christian nationalism a theological error incompatible with the teachings of Jesus: pres-outlook.org/2026/07/pcus...
pres-outlook.org
PC(USA) labels White Christian nationalism "Theological Error"
Calling White Christian nationalism incompatible with the teachings of Jesus, commissioners approved a proposed constitutional amendment and a new policy statement opposing the ideology.
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Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Movie stars are looking younger and younger relative to their actual age, and this trend has been going on since at least the 1970s. no-little-plans.ghost.io/the-top-10-e...
no-little-plans.ghost.io
The Top 10% Effect: Why Movie Stars Are Aging More Slowly
I’m going to show you some pictures of famous actors and ask you to tell me what each pair has in common. Pretend you didn't just read the title. Ready? Go. Pair 1 Pair 2 And for some men: ...
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Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Movie stars are looking younger and younger relative to their actual age, and this trend has been going on since at least the 1970s. no-little-plans.ghost.io/the-top-10-e...
no-little-plans.ghost.io
The Top 10% Effect: Why Movie Stars Are Aging More Slowly
I’m going to show you some pictures of famous actors and ask you to tell me what each pair has in common. Pretend you didn't just read the title. Ready? Go. Pair 1 Pair 2 And for some men: ...
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kelsie @kelsie.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
We had a really mean python at work and I gave him back to his owner and was like “he was trying to kill me” and his owner said “well, he only has so many ways to interact with the world. All he has is a face” and it Moved Me
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Steph @stephy.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
I just bought my saberseminar ticket!
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Alan Nathan @pobguy.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Unfortunately I'll not be attending this year due to a conflict. But I encourage all my baseball followers out there to attend. Saberseminar has always been one of the great forums for learning about the latest baseball research and connecting with other like-minded people. Do not miss it!
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Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
This is exactly why DEI efforts are not anti-meritocratic, as some critics claim. The base playing field is *severely* tilted against people of color, so efforts to push against that preexisting bias effectively just make promotions more fair and more meritocratic. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/19/u...
nytimes.com
Secret Vetting and Blocked Promotions: Inside Hegseth’s War on Diversity
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Saberseminar @saberseminar.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Excited to announce that general ticket sales for Saberseminar 2026 are open now! We've got a great lineup of speakers that we'll reveal soon, but you can expect more of the fantastic research and discussions we've had in past years. events.ticketleap.com/tickets/sabe...
events.ticketleap.com
Saberseminar 2026 - At Illinois Tech
Sabermetrics, Scouting, and the Science of Baseball is the premier baseball analytics event. We get front office insiders, scientists, scouts, and sabermetricians into the same room and have them talk...
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Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
That's a shame. There was a lot of really good, sometimes academic-quality research on the site. (There was also some terrible stuff.) There's nothing to be gained by taking it offline.
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Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
This is free to read, but if you enjoy reading it, you may also want to consider subscribing. Got some cool stuff coming up, some baseball, some more movies, some politics, and more.
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Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
In my last post, I looked at how Hollywood discriminates severely and unreasonably against older actresses, in particular. In this post, I look at how actresses fight back: they look much younger than their chronological age. no-little-plans.ghost.io/for-hollywoo...
no-little-plans.ghost.io
For Hollywood Actresses, Looking Younger Pays Off
Every year they can shave from their appearance equates to millions of dollars in career earnings. I recently wrote about the blatant bias against aging female stars in Hollywood. I found that Hollyw...
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Saberseminar @saberseminar.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Just 3 DAYS LEFT to submit your abstract for Saberseminar 2026! docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
docs.google.com
Saberseminar Abstract Submission Form
Thank you for considering presenting your work at Sabermetrics, Scouting, and the Science of Baseball 2026. Because of your efforts, we have grown to be a national meeting known for showcasing new, or...
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David Roberts @volts.wtf · 23/04/2026
Still feel like "Musk and his crew of incels destroyed a bunch of stuff they didn't understand and thereby hastened the deaths of millions of children" did not get the public attention it warranted.
wired.com
USAID Whistleblower Says It Was Even Worse Than People Knew
Political appointees wanted a quiet drawdown, the whistleblower says. DOGE wanted an execution.
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The New York Times @nytimes.com · 22/04/2026
The acting head of the CDC has canceled the publication of a study that found that the Covid vaccine sharply cut the odds of hospitalizations and emergency visits last winter, a Health Department spokesman said.
nyti.ms
C.D.C. Cancels Publication of Study Showing Benefits of Covid Vaccines
The report found that the shots cut the likelihood of hospitalizations, but the agency’s acting head said it gave an inaccurate picture of the vaccines’ effectiveness.
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Stephen Sutton-Brown @srbrown70.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Which of y'all are submitting something for Saberseminar this year? Which of y'all are attending? Which of you hate baseball and knowledge and good hangs? docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
docs.google.com
Saberseminar Abstract Submission Form
Thank you for considering presenting your work at Sabermetrics, Scouting, and the Science of Baseball 2026. Because of your efforts, we have grown to be a national meeting known for showcasing new, or...
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Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
a little while back, I started a blog, except I guess blogs are called newsletters now. (Apparently I'm sufficiently old to have reached the stage of "that thing I called X is now called Y and I'm mad about it.")
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Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
sure, it's well known that all doctors emanate glowing radiance from their hands
stupid Trump meme of himself as Jesus
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Saberseminar @saberseminar.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
Reminder: abstract submissions are open for Saberseminar 2026. We always aim for a mix of talks on a wide variety of subjects, from established professionals to hobbyists to students looking to get a foot in the door. Submit your abstract ASAP! docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
docs.google.com
Saberseminar Abstract Submission Form
Thank you for considering presenting your work at Sabermetrics, Scouting, and the Science of Baseball 2026. Because of your efforts, we have grown to be a national meeting known for showcasing new, or...
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Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
back @baseballprospectus.com for the first time in a while, using prospect reports--the raw text--analyzed with deep learning models to predict who will get to the majors and how valuable they'll be. www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...
baseballprospectus.com
Prospect Hunting With Deep Learning | Baseball Prospectus
Examining a new tool for interpreting scouting reports.
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Mark Nance @mnance.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
Teaching students to ask a question, find and consider evidence, and craft and clearly articulate an argument is at the core of all teaching. It is a slow, messy, non-linear process, but a skill that can be taught. AI short circuits that learning. As Karamanis writes, failure is the curriculum.
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Jessica Lussenhop @jlussenhop.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
I often share ProPublica work by picking one quote that stood out to me. But I can't narrow it down with this jaw-dropping piece by @kbmorales.bsky.social and @davidarmstrongx.bsky.social so, uh, 🧵I guess: www.propublica.org/article/trum...
A chart categorizing the number of Trump DOJ cases that have been rejected by case type
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Saberseminar @saberseminar.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
We're excited to announce that Saberseminar 2026 will be held August 29-30 at the IIT campus in Chicago! We're excited to get back together for another weekend of fundraising and cutting-edge baseball research. For more information, visit our website. www.saberseminar.com
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Chris Geidner @chrisgeidner.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
BREAKING: Judge Cobb finds that Sec. Noem's second and third efforts to restrict congressional oversight access to federal immigration facilities still likely violate Sec. 527, issues an order blocking both during litigation.
IV.
CONCLUSION
For the foregoing reasons, Plaintiffs' motion for a stay of agency action, ECF 49, is GRANTED. The challenged January 8 notice policy, including the purported ratification on
February 2, is STAYED pending conclusion of these review proceedings, and the temporary
restraining order entered by the Court on February 2, 2026, ECF 52, is hereby dissolved.
A separate order accompanies this memorandum opinion.
SO ORDERED.
duall.Co
ЛА М. СОВВ
United States District Judge
Date: March 2, 2026
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Scientific American @sciam.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
As the U.S. officially breaks 1,000 measles cases in 2026, experts say that the rate of infections is accelerating much faster this year than it did in years past
scientificamerican.com
The U.S. just surpassed a grim measles milestone
As the U.S. officially breaks 1,000 measles cases in 2026, experts say that the rate of infections is accelerating much faster this year than it did in years past
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James Talarico @jamestalarico.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
This is the interview Donald Trump didn’t want you to see. His FCC refused to air my interview with Stephen Colbert. Trump is worried we’re about to flip Texas.
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ryan cooper @ryanlcooper.com · 16/02/2026
yeeeesh www.yahoo.com/entertainmen...
yahoo.com
Erika Kirk Faces Backlash Over Alleged 'Inappropriate' Texts With A 15-Year-Old: 'Absolutely Vile'
Purported Texts Between Erika Kirk And A 15-Year-Old Go Viral Sparking Backlash And 'Grooming' Allegations
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Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 14/02/2026
Glad this is getting covered, but also… Completely surreal to read the NYT report on this as recently disclosed info, and just an allegation. This happened to every observer I know! It happened to me twice! I have it on video both times! www.nytimes.com/2026/02/13/u...
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Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
According to public Department of Justice records, about 2000 staffers left DOJ from 2024-2025, including about 1000 lawyers. The last time there were there this few staff was 2010. no-little-plans.ghost.io/2000-staffer...
no-little-plans.ghost.io
2000 Staffers Have Left the Department of Justice Since September 2024
DOJ’s workforce shrunk by more than 11.5% from 2024-2025. Last week, a Department of Justice (DOJ) lawyer named Julia Le had a meltdown in court, telling a judge “The system sucks, my job sucks.” She...
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George Conway ⚖️🇺🇸 @gtconway.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
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Radley Balko @radleybalko.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
Federal agents cornered Marimar Martinez, shot her several times, boasted about it, arrested her, lied about her to the public and in the police report, and falsely charged her with assaulting them. Now the government wants to keep evidence of their lies secret to protect these agents' "privacy."
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Mark Zaid, Esq @markzaidesq.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
What is going on w/Bondi's DOJ & Pirro's US Attny's Office? They are repeatedly missing court deadlines in new lawsuits against USG & facing possible default. I had two w/i last few days. Admin has gutted these offices. I feel for lawyers still there. Workload is unmanageable.
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The Tennessee Holler @thetnholler.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
“I watched him die… then I watched them maneuver his body like a rag doll— only to discover it was because they wanted to count the bullet wounds and see how many they ‘got’, like he was a deer.”
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Bill Corbett @billcorbett.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
Mommy Mondays with Tony Dokoupil
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