Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 01/10/2026I think that's also a fair perspective! From that view, I think the title becomes "video games are becoming *high-quality art*" and partly because the reviewers are pushing them in that direction. But you can also see the quality coming through from their adaptations into other artistic media. 010
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 01/10/2026In fact, video game reviewers seem to talk more about plot, narrative, and artistic impact than movie reviewers, according to this Metacritic data. I'd argue both forms contain works of art, and both contain "functional" works meant to distract and waste time (schlocky action movies, etc.). 100
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Both game critics and users alike now seem to weigh the story of a game above almost all other criteria--including visuals, gameplay, etc. 100
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 01/10/2026People have been arguing about "video games as art" for decades. In that time, gamers and critics themselves have started to care a lot more about games' stories and artistic impact, suggesting that the medium is evolving. no-little-plans.ghost.io/video-games-...no-little-plans.ghost.ioVideo Games Are Becoming ArtRoger Ebert once famously claimed that video games can never be art. Many game designers (and players) may beg to differ, but I think the early days of video games certainly don’t qualify as art. Pong... 120
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Quick article at BP about how the landscape of Japanese talent flowing into MLB has changed. It was hard to translate and project from NPB based on outcome metrics; it's much easier with things like fastball velocity and bat speed. www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article... 0119
Reposted by Rob ArthurBaseball Prospectus @baseballprospectus.com · 23/09/2026This Wave Of Japanese Talent Is The Beginning Of A Pipeline by Robert Arthur (@robarthur.bsky.social) www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...baseballprospectus.comThis Wave Of Japanese Talent Is The Beginning Of A Pipeline | Baseball ProspectusThis time, it’s not just a few stars. 081
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 03/09/2026Another fascinating thing to me was that the culinary mix doesn't really vary much from large urban counties to smaller rural ones. American and Mexican food are the two dominant cuisines, with side helpings of Chinese, Italian, etc. Urban counties just have more distinct low-frequency flavors. 020
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 03/09/2026An interesting side story from this was that the counties where immigrants move also develop restaurants from their home countries about 2 years later, like clockwork. But, the elasticity--how many more restaurants open in that county--varies tremendously across different origins. 250
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 03/09/202610 years ago, a Trump supporter named Marco Gutierrez declared that without policy changes, there would be "a taco truck on every corner." A decade on, tacos are the fastest-rising culinary format in the country, much to most everyone's delight. no-little-plans.ghost.io/a-taco-truck...no-little-plans.ghost.io“A Taco Truck On Every Corner” Is Coming TrueWhen Marco Gutierrez, co-founder of Latinos for Trump, declared that “If you don’t do something about it, you’re going to have taco trucks on every corner,” it read to some like a threat, to others a ... 1245
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 02/09/2026Strangely, no one seems to be complaining about the additional taquerias 🧐 120
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 02/09/2026Almost exactly 10 years since the famous warning that there would soon be "a taco truck on every corner," they are indeed the biggest increase in restaurant format in the US, per Foursquare's data. no-little-plans.ghost.io/a-taco-truck...no-little-plans.ghost.io“A Taco Truck On Every Corner” Is Coming TrueWhen Marco Gutierrez, co-founder of Latinos for Trump, declared that “If you don’t do something about it, you’re going to have taco trucks on every corner,” it read to some like a threat, to others a ... 120
Reposted by Rob ArthurSaberseminar @saberseminar.bsky.social · 31/08/2026Thanks to all of our attendees and presenters for another successful Saberseminar! You guys are the main attraction and the community that makes our event welcoming, fun, and interesting, and we are so grateful to all of you. ❤️ 051
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 26/08/2026they tried forcing science to align with ideology in the USSR. It didn't go well. www.theatlantic.com/science/arch...theatlantic.comThe Soviet Era's Deadliest Scientist Is Regaining Popularity in RussiaTrofim Lysenko’s spurious research prolonged famines that killed millions. So why is a fringe movement praising his legacy? 010
Reposted by Rob ArthurSaberseminar @saberseminar.bsky.social · 15/08/2026We'll be converting all ticket sales to *late registrations* (at a higher fee) soon. Buy your tickets now! events.ticketleap.com/tickets/sabe...events.ticketleap.comSaberseminar 2026 - At Illinois TechSabermetrics, Scouting, and the Science of Baseball is the premier baseball analytics event. We get front office insiders, scientists, scouts, and sabermetricians into the same room and have them talk... 1311
Reposted by Rob ArthurSaberseminar @saberseminar.bsky.social · 10/08/2026Excited about Saberseminar but not able to make it this year? Always wanted to buy a sweatshirt, mug, or hat with the logo? Check out our online store for another way of supporting the event. If there's any particular color/item combo you want, let us know. www.bonfire.com/store/sabers...bonfire.comSaberseminar | Official Merchandise | BonfireCheck out Saberseminar on Bonfire and shop official merchandise today! Featuring limited edition custom apparel, printed with care in the USA just for you. 014
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 28/07/2026Using the DOJ's own data, I found that they're pursuing fewer criminal charges that aren't related to immigration. They're winning the cases they are pursuing less often, and at least in DC, it looks like they are declining to charge some serious offenses. no-little-plans.ghost.io/trumps-doj-i...no-little-plans.ghost.ioTrump’s DOJ Is Pursuing Fewer Non-Immigration Criminal ChargesThe Department of Justice is the federal government’s main law enforcement apparatus, and it has shed thousands of personnel since the beginning of Trump’s second term. There are fewer ATF (Alcohol, T... 000
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 28/07/2026This is what happens when you lose 11% of the personnel at DOJ and task the remainder with investigating immigration cases: there's less time for investigating and prosecuting other kinds of crime. no-little-plans.ghost.io/2000-staffer...no-little-plans.ghost.io2000 Staffers Have Left the Department of Justice US Attorney Offices Since September 2024DOJ’s EOUSA workforce shrunk by more than 11.5% from 2024-2025. Last week, a Department of Justice (DOJ) lawyer named Julia Le had a meltdown in court, telling a judge “The system sucks, my job sucks... 011
Reposted by Rob ArthurSaberseminar @saberseminar.bsky.social · 27/07/2026Get your tickets now! blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/...blogs.fangraphs.comSaberseminar 2026 Is August 29-30 in Chicago!Tickets are now available for the conference. 003
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 27/07/2026This pattern is especially significant in some districts, like DC, where arrests by police are actually up, but criminal charges are down because the DC DA's office seems to be declining to prosecute some crimes, including those unrelated to the crackdown like fraud and sexual abuse. 110
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 27/07/2026An underappreciated aspect of Trump's immigration crackdown is that the DOJ has a lot less time to spend on what it used to do--prosecuting more serious crimes. We're starting to see the first impacts: a reduction in non-immigration-related charges. no-little-plans.ghost.io/trumps-doj-i...no-little-plans.ghost.ioTrump’s DOJ Is Pursuing Fewer Non-Immigration Criminal ChargesThe Department of Justice is the federal government’s main law enforcement apparatus, and it has shed thousands of personnel since the beginning of Trump’s second term. There are fewer ATF (Alcohol, T... 130
Reposted by Rob ArthurCarl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 04/07/20261. A bit of evolutionary biology. I'm really intrigued by a new perspective piece from Steve Frank that explores connections between how natural selection creates systems that generalize and recent work in machine learning about the surprising capabilities of massively overparameterized systems.academic.oup.comGeneralization as the great leap in evolvability: insights from machine learningAbstract. Natural selection encodes learned information in the genome. Learned solutions may be tuned specifically to past challenges, failing in altered e 9402118
Reposted by Rob ArthurKen Morales @kbmorales.bsky.social · 06/07/20261/ I looked at 20 years of Supreme Court decisions and found that for the first time, all nine justices decided more cases by secret ballot — aka the “shadow docket” — than it did for cases argued in open court last term. 🧵: 281276575
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 06/07/2026Obviously hard to tell given this data, but I wonder how much of the reduction was the huge loss in personnel. Fewer people recovering guns -> fewer guns recovered. www.staradvertiser.com/2026/04/23/b...staradvertiser.comFBI, DEA, ATF staffing drops despite Trump crime crackdown pledge | Honolulu Star-AdvertiserWASHINGTON >> The Trump administration has cut more than 4,000 employees from some of the nation’s top law enforcement agencies, even as it vowed to crack down on crime, according to records obtained ... 100
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 06/07/2026this is such great work from @bwd.bsky.social. He was kind enough to share some other emails where Sword et al. discussed my work, which was funny. Major props to Bradford for thinking to use public records law to get at some of this correspondence. 0127
Reposted by Rob ArthurSteve Vladeck @stevevladeck.bsky.social · 06/07/2026This passage from @davidlat.bsky.social perfectly captures the false dichotomy you see so often from the Supreme Court's defenders: The Court is held out as "independent" because it doesn't *always* rule for Trump. That whitewashes (1) how often it *does*; & (2) its bad behavior in non-Trump cases. 441816454
Reposted by Rob ArthurBradford William Davis @bwd.bsky.social · 06/07/2026In 2019, an MLB exec told Rawlings the league wanted its baseball to perform to what he called a ‘target leaguewide home run rate’ The next year, MLB started making and using two baseballs in at least three consecutive seasons. What could this mean for the 2026 rocket ball? issa new [eyeblack]readeyeblack.comDid you know about MLB's dinger quota?eyeblack found a league executive's instructions to achieve a 'target leaguewide homeun rate.' Here's what it says about 2026's Juiced Ball 2.0 38348
Reposted by Rob ArthurKen Arneson @kenarneson.bsky.social · 04/07/2026The weather in this afternoon's game between France and Paraguay in Philadelphia will be interesting, so I made a video about it for the brand new @weatherapplied YouTube Channel. If you want to see us make more such videos, subscribe to the channel. www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRA5...youtube.comWAM Weather Impact Preview: France v Paraguay, Philadelphia Stadium, July 4, 2026YouTube video by Weather Applied Metrics 3129
Reposted by Rob Arthurrahaeli @rahaeli.bsky.social · 04/07/2026In other "excellent news from religious bodies", the US Presbyterian General Assembly has formally voted to start the process to (correctly) declare white Christian nationalism a theological error incompatible with the teachings of Jesus: pres-outlook.org/2026/07/pcus...pres-outlook.orgPC(USA) labels White Christian nationalism "Theological Error"Calling White Christian nationalism incompatible with the teachings of Jesus, commissioners approved a proposed constitutional amendment and a new policy statement opposing the ideology. 173713979
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 04/07/2026I like the metaphor, but what that model lacked was the recommendation algorithm that finds content you'll like and serves it to you over and over and over and... 020
Reposted by Rob ArthurRob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 03/07/2026Movie stars are looking younger and younger relative to their actual age, and this trend has been going on since at least the 1970s. no-little-plans.ghost.io/the-top-10-e...no-little-plans.ghost.ioThe Top 10% Effect: Why Movie Stars Are Aging More SlowlyI’m going to show you some pictures of famous actors and ask you to tell me what each pair has in common. Pretend you didn't just read the title. Ready? Go. Pair 1 Pair 2 And for some men: ... 121
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 03/07/2026I did a deep dive on what might explain those exceptions. The strongest predictor *isn't* change in life expectancy or pollution or anything I expected when I started. 000
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 03/07/2026It turns out it's not just limited to the US and Western Europe, either--pretty much across the world, from China to France to Iran to Indonesia, most countries' movie stars have been looking younger. But there are a few (interesting) exceptions. 100
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 03/07/2026Movie stars are looking younger and younger relative to their actual age, and this trend has been going on since at least the 1970s. no-little-plans.ghost.io/the-top-10-e...no-little-plans.ghost.ioThe Top 10% Effect: Why Movie Stars Are Aging More SlowlyI’m going to show you some pictures of famous actors and ask you to tell me what each pair has in common. Pretend you didn't just read the title. Ready? Go. Pair 1 Pair 2 And for some men: ... 121
Reposted by Rob Arthurkelsie @kelsie.bsky.social · 01/07/2026We had a really mean python at work and I gave him back to his owner and was like “he was trying to kill me” and his owner said “well, he only has so many ways to interact with the world. All he has is a face” and it Moved Me 274498903
Reposted by Rob ArthurSteph @stephy.bsky.social · 23/06/2026I just bought my saberseminar ticket! 131
Reposted by Rob ArthurAlan Nathan @pobguy.bsky.social · 19/06/2026Unfortunately I'll not be attending this year due to a conflict. But I encourage all my baseball followers out there to attend. Saberseminar has always been one of the great forums for learning about the latest baseball research and connecting with other like-minded people. Do not miss it! 002
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 19/06/2026This is exactly why DEI efforts are not anti-meritocratic, as some critics claim. The base playing field is *severely* tilted against people of color, so efforts to push against that preexisting bias effectively just make promotions more fair and more meritocratic. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/19/u...nytimes.comSecret Vetting and Blocked Promotions: Inside Hegseth’s War on Diversity 021
Reposted by Rob ArthurSaberseminar @saberseminar.bsky.social · 19/06/2026Excited to announce that general ticket sales for Saberseminar 2026 are open now! We've got a great lineup of speakers that we'll reveal soon, but you can expect more of the fantastic research and discussions we've had in past years. events.ticketleap.com/tickets/sabe...events.ticketleap.comSaberseminar 2026 - At Illinois TechSabermetrics, Scouting, and the Science of Baseball is the premier baseball analytics event. We get front office insiders, scientists, scouts, and sabermetricians into the same room and have them talk... 036
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 15/05/2026That's a shame. There was a lot of really good, sometimes academic-quality research on the site. (There was also some terrible stuff.) There's nothing to be gained by taking it offline. 030
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 14/05/2026This is free to read, but if you enjoy reading it, you may also want to consider subscribing. Got some cool stuff coming up, some baseball, some more movies, some politics, and more. 020
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 14/05/2026With a bit of statistical investigation, I found that for every year younger an actress can look, they can make about $2.5M more in their careers. Since many succeed in looking 5-10 years younger, we're talking $10+M more. That's a pretty hefty financial incentive to seem young. 000
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 14/05/2026I found that actresses in particular appear to age remarkably slowly. When they're in their 40s, they look 36; when they're in their 50s, about a third of them still look like they're under 40 years old, an impressive feat. Male costars tend to look pretty much as old as they actually are. 100
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 14/05/2026To get at how old people look, and not just how long it has been since they were born, I used an algorithm called InsightFace that can estimate a person's age based on a photograph with about as much accuracy as a human can: typically around 5-10 years off. 100
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 14/05/2026In my last post, I looked at how Hollywood discriminates severely and unreasonably against older actresses, in particular. In this post, I look at how actresses fight back: they look much younger than their chronological age. no-little-plans.ghost.io/for-hollywoo...no-little-plans.ghost.ioFor Hollywood Actresses, Looking Younger Pays OffEvery year they can shave from their appearance equates to millions of dollars in career earnings. I recently wrote about the blatant bias against aging female stars in Hollywood. I found that Hollyw... 130
Reposted by Rob ArthurSaberseminar @saberseminar.bsky.social · 13/05/2026Just 3 DAYS LEFT to submit your abstract for Saberseminar 2026! docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...docs.google.comSaberseminar Abstract Submission FormThank you for considering presenting your work at Sabermetrics, Scouting, and the Science of Baseball 2026. Because of your efforts, we have grown to be a national meeting known for showcasing new, or... 012
Reposted by Rob ArthurDavid Roberts @volts.wtf · 23/04/2026Still feel like "Musk and his crew of incels destroyed a bunch of stuff they didn't understand and thereby hastened the deaths of millions of children" did not get the public attention it warranted.wired.comUSAID Whistleblower Says It Was Even Worse Than People KnewPolitical appointees wanted a quiet drawdown, the whistleblower says. DOGE wanted an execution. 19599414086
Reposted by Rob ArthurThe New York Times @nytimes.com · 22/04/2026The acting head of the CDC has canceled the publication of a study that found that the Covid vaccine sharply cut the odds of hospitalizations and emergency visits last winter, a Health Department spokesman said.nyti.msC.D.C. Cancels Publication of Study Showing Benefits of Covid VaccinesThe report found that the shots cut the likelihood of hospitalizations, but the agency’s acting head said it gave an inaccurate picture of the vaccines’ effectiveness. 2717591
Reposted by Rob ArthurStephen Sutton-Brown @srbrown70.bsky.social · 17/04/2026Which of y'all are submitting something for Saberseminar this year? Which of y'all are attending? Which of you hate baseball and knowledge and good hangs? docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...docs.google.comSaberseminar Abstract Submission FormThank you for considering presenting your work at Sabermetrics, Scouting, and the Science of Baseball 2026. Because of your efforts, we have grown to be a national meeting known for showcasing new, or... 057
Rob Arthur @robarthur.bsky.social · 17/04/2026And using deep learning models to predict movie popularity and quality (with surprisingly high accuracy). no-little-plans.ghost.io/how-to-predi... 011