iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

The asylum seekers? Absolutely fine. They sit in the garden. They have no devices to amplify music. We've had no problems at all with their interfering with us. I suspect most people in our situation don't realise they're in it. And I imagine we're not the only ones for whom it's a refreshing change

729823

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

When there were young offenders there, we had lots of trouble. There were a couple of times when people (bizarrely) threw fruit at our house and broke windows. My wife's purse was stolen when we left a window open. We had police through the house several times and had to report a stabbing once.

11247

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

The house previously seemed to house young offenders and was some kind of half-way house accommodation. So the transition to a new group speaking a language common among asylum seekers makes me pretty sure it's now housing asylum seekers.

11156

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Firstly, I suspect that many people living next door to asylum seekers just don't realise they're doing so. The house where they're living was empty for a while then I noticed there were people there again and had been for a while. I think they're speaking Arabic to each other.

21526

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Owen Jones @owenjones.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

I heard Lee Anderson on Today saying that no one wanted to live next to an HMO housing people seeking asylum. As far as I can tell, my back garden abuts the back garden of a house that does indeed house asylum seekers, so I thought I'd give a brief account of why I am in fact fine about it.

23606211

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

This sums it up. He only sees angry posts about migrant rapists - so he doesn't realise that the vast majority of rapists are not migrants.

1313638

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 07/08/2026

Is welfare spending ''out of control''? It's estimated to be 11.1 per cent of GDP this financial year. That's just 1.1 per cent of GDP higher than in 2007-08, and total welfare spending has actually fallen by 0.9 per cent of GDP since 2012-13 ⤵️

chart showing Social security spending as a proportion of GDP, by category: GB

33321

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

East Anglia Bylines @eastangliabylines.co.uk · 25/07/2026

Net migration has fallen from 944,000 to 171,000. Yet that headline conceals major movements in both directions – including substantial emigration by British and EU+ nationals. So, asks Jonathan Portes, what exactly is the problem people want politicians to solve?

eastangliabylines.co.uk

Reducing net migration was never the real issue

Our immigration statistics have served to legimise racism. Reduced net migration was not what people wanted

35228

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

7. It is, however, completely contrary to the narrative from many politicians/media/thinktanks that recent work migration is a) mostly low-skill & b) has a large fiscal cost. The post-Brexit migration system was far from perfect! But it was clearly an economic benefit, not a cost. ENDS

38722

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

6. So the overall story is that high skilled/high paid workers are strongly fiscally positive, while medium/lower paid workers are (very broadly) fiscally neutral in the long run (although positive in the short run). This is no great surprise to those of us who've looked at the data..

48424

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

5. In the short term (where the numbers are more certain for obvious reasons) the picture is (even) more positive -even dependents are fiscally positive

1429

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

4. Even care workers (a subset of those on the Health and Care Visa) are only a relatively small direct fiscal cost, and as the report says roughly comparable to Brits: "Care Workers are therefore fiscally negative over their lifetimes and broadly similar to the UK median for the age group"

2437

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

3. This isn't surprising! The SWV was supposed to be targeted at private sector workers who would make a significant economic/fiscal contribution. The Health and Care Visa was to address skill/labour shortages in the NHS and care sectors, not to (directly) boost government finances.

3487

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

2. But this is highly heterogeneous - mostly driven by skilled workers *not* on health/care visas. The latter are also positive, but much smaller numbers, and offset by dependants.

14711

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

1. This is the lifetime (discounted back) net contribution of those who arrived on skilled work visas (including health/care visas) *and* their dependants in 2022/23. One way of looking at it is that this cohort (one year's worth of migrants) will "pay" for about 1.5% of the UK's £3 trillion debt

37614

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

"Migrants who came to the UK on skilled work visas in 2022-23 will make a net contribution of £47bn to the public finances over their lifetime, according to new estimates from the government’s Migration Advisory Committee." Not surprising, but some observations (1/n) www.ft.com/content/10da...

18472261

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

That competition for the anti-Reform mantle is a threat but also a opportunity for the govt. Whoever is PM will need to unite their bloc and pull over some voters from the right. The former is doable, the second probably will not involve many Lab 24->Reform switchers, who look pretty gone atm.

1145

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

In my strong view, Reform = a one issue pressure group on asylum/migration with a bit of anti-system on top. On flip side, among target voters (mostly Con 24), some worries about competence and governing experience (hence I assume the big play from the party re: defectors)

3182

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

As others (@owenwntr.bsky.social, MiC etc) have noted, social attitudes cut by financial security is quite a neat prism. Financially insecure social liberals going Green, financially insecure conservatives Reform. Lab & LD left with financially secure liberals. Con higher with secure cons.

13714

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

I'll go nation by nation now. In England, why did people not vote Labour? Interesting split here where non-Labour voters overall cite competence/cost of living/migration BUT Labour 2024 defectors talk about values - Lab as 'Tory lite', uncertainty over what they stand for. (sorry for small graph)

24312

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Sean Jones KC @seanjones.org · 09/05/2026

3. It must be so patently fairly distributed that people can’t be persuaded that others are getting more than their fair share; and 4. Unlike say, clean air, vaccines etc it has to be so undeniably a benefit that bad faith discourse in Facebook cannot persuade people otherwise. Good luck!

4618

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Sean Jones KC @seanjones.org · 09/05/2026

Making yourself popular by delivering improvements to people’s lives sounds like ideal politics but: 1. The change must be big enough and fast enough that people cannot fail to acknowledge it; 2. It must be so clearly your achievement that a hostile press cannot give credit to someone else /1

26418

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

The Renters' Rights Act is step forward on security of tenure. But it doesn't touch the core issue: Rents are simply too high relative to incomes, and have been for decades.

171

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

The biggest jumps in housing costs come when people move home. Landlords are more likely to increase rents between tenancies, and by larger amounts.

141

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

Problem 3: rent increases come in sharp, unpredictable spikes. Rents don't always rise every year. But when they do, increases are often well above inflation.

251

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

Housing support (housing benefit / LHA) can't fix this on it's own. Many struggling renters can't access these benefits. And support has fallen behind rent growth. Government should relink LHA to current rents.

151

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

High housing costs drive poverty and increase economic insecurity. At worst, unavailability of homes and unaffordable rents drive homelessness and destitution.

151

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

Problem 2: rent affordability pressures are particularly acute for low-income households, made worse when subsidies are inadequate. Low income renters spend much higher share of incomes on rents, and 40% of renters in the bottom 40% of incomes struggle to pay rent.

173

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

The problem now affects far more people. The private rented sector doubled in size since 2000, as owner occupation and social renting declined. More people paying high rents for longer.

193

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

The UK stands out internationally. Almost one in four private renters in the UK spend over 40% of their incomes on rents - the highest in Europe (in OECD data).

1106

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

Before rent deregulation in the late 1970s, average rents were about 11% of average earnings. This rose sharply after deregulation, and the high rent-to-income ratios have been the norm since. This is the structural problem.

1148

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

Problem 1: rents have been persistently high as a share of renters incomes for a few decades. The problem isn't just about rent growth, it's that rents are consistently high as a share of incomes.

173

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

It's a bit of a myth that rents are constantly increasing faster than earnings or overall inflation - on average, they're not. So what *is* the problem of unaffordability in the private rented sector? And what does this mean for how we go about fixing it? Our take 🧵⬇️

34126

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Praxis, for migrants and refugees @praxisprojects.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

The 'earned settlement' changes will only deliver a fraction of claimed savings, according to the Government's own data. This totally undermines the Gov's own rationale for going ahead with the disastrous plans. Thanks to a FOI request by @jdportes.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026...

theguardian.com

Mahmood’s migration changes will deliver fraction of claimed savings, data suggests

Exclusive: Analysis of government figures indicates public finances will gain £600m not £10bn if migrants’ access to benefits is reduced

12717

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Marisa Kabas @marisakabas.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

“Mohammed, five, Othman, seven, who was blind and had special needs, their mother Waad Bani Odeh, 35, and father Ali Bani Odeh, 37, were driving through their hometown of Tamoun late on Saturday when Israeli forces opened fire.” Shot in the head and face. Executed with their parents. No words.

theguardian.com

Israeli police kill two young Palestinian boys and their parents in West Bank

Mother, father and brothers aged five and seven shot in their car as they returned from Ramadan shopping trip

5727371304

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

The one area where visas are increasing is in country visa grants. Especially for family and dependants, but also the graduate visa. Partly seasonal for the graduate visa (and tougher work visa rules), but I think the biggest factor here is the government's mass revocation of sponsor licenses. (4/4)

021

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

A big fall in student visa grants in Quarter 4 relative to 2024 (until now 2025 had seen higher student visa numbers than 2025). Affects all South Asian countries, but a huge collapse in Pakistani students. Only about half of student visa applications by Pakistanis are now accepted. (3/4)

131

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

There has also been a fall in grants for high skilled jobs where people can still bring dependants. Partly seasonal, but that should only bring numbers down to Q1 levels. Also a tougher salary threshold and tighter scrutiny of sponsors and applications, eg big fall in Pakistanis working in IT. (2/4)

131

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Sarah O'Connor @sarahoconnorft.ft.com · 20/02/2026

New quarterly migration statistics out today. One thing that's clear is a big collapse in visa applications and grants for shortage occupations that are eligible for a visa but not to bring dependants. This would be even steeper without a surge in demand for ship and hovercraft officers. (1/4)

11112

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Such a good piece today from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com which shows that the declining graduate premium is very much a UK problem rather than a general (or inevevitable) consequence of more people going to uni www.ft.com/content/649d...

1020280

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 18/02/2026

This should also make it clear that simplified spatial thinking is inadequate to understand current multi-party competition. See e.g. Labour worst and Greens strongest against Reform. Yet, spatial thinking (e.g. you have to moderate to win elections) still dominates political analysis and strategy.

0276

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

There is no reason to believe that people of any one race, sex, or sexuality, etc are especially meritorious. A workforce truly appointed on merit should be diverse and inclusive. The Act does its best to make that happen. /13

184

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

That means that if alternative measure falling short of favouring the minority ethnic candidate were available, the positive action would not be lawful. /11

192

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

You can’t have a POLICY of preferring minority ethnic candidates and even if you jump through those hoops you’d still have to show it was a proportionate means of avoiding the disadvantage or addressing the under-representation. /10

2132

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social

Critically, you cannot use positive action to appoint a less-qualified candidate. It’s only available at all where the candidates are EQUALLY QUALIFIED. You can’t use it to pass over a better qualified candidate. /9

(4) But subsection (2) applies only if -
(a) A is as qualified as B to be recruited or promoted,
(b) P does not have a policy of treating persons who share the protected characteristic more favourably in connection with recruitment or promotion than persons who do not share it, and
(c) taking the action in question is a proportionate means of achieving the aim referred to in subsection (2).

1175

Reposted by @raccycheung.bsky.social