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James Bowes

@jamesbowes01.bsky.social
834 followers 99 following 3.8K posts
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
164 different employers, who have since lost their sponsor license, sponsored 100 or more people in a single post town in 2023. The vast majority are care providers and there is a disproportionate number in areas where a lot of people were recruited from Africa.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
The number of visas sponsored by companies who've lost their license has fallen in recent years. Some of this will of course be because less time has passed since the visa was sponsored, but a large part of this is much tighter scrutiny of visa applications. 2023 was especially bad.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
British people unfairly deported from Sweden aren't a natural consequence of Brexit and it's not okay to laugh at. It's a subset of extremist decisions made by a far-right government affecting many nationalities. Mistreatment of immigrants isn't unique to the UK or USA. www.msn.com/en-gb/news/o...
msn.com
MSN
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
www.researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news-uk-u...
researchprofessionalnews.com
Visa applications to study in UK plunge in crucial summer months - Research Professional News
August figures down by 32 per cent compared with 2023, as decline accelerates
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
17% fall year in year on student visa applications for August (120,300 to 99,500). Actual visa grants will fall further because of the higher rejection rate. Work visa main applicant applications dropping back to normal level from a seasonal high. Work visa dependant numbers starting to fall.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
There has been a big increase in the rejection of health and care dependant visa applications made by Nigerians already living here. Likely this is people switching from a graduate visa to work in social care or as auxiliary nurses, who came with dependants but aren't allowed them on the work visa.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Does anyone know why family and private life grants have fallen so much? Is it just because it's the second renewal after the pandemic or is this because of tougher rules? (Applications down a lot as well, so it's not just a higher rejection rate, although that has happened too).
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula... London and most other big cities saw their population decline in 2025. This was with net migration of 170,000. We’re unlikely to see net migration get that high again, unless immigration law is liberalised or there is another major humanitarian crisis like Ukraine.
ons.gov.uk
Population estimates for England and Wales - Office for National Statistics
National and subnational mid-year population estimates for England and Wales by administrative area, age and sex.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
It's now clear that, barring any major crisis in the next few months, this year will be the lowest post pandemic year for the number of people crossing by small boat. About 25,000 people crossing at most, so lower than even 2021.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
(main applicants only) Student visas granted Q2 of 2025: 52,619 Student visas granted Q2 of 2025: 29,289 44% fall Pakistani nationals only: Q2 of 2025: 5,812 Q2 of 2026: 575 90% fall!
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Aside from the cruelty of deporting 200,000 legal immigrants, who’ve followed all the rules, for no reason, I really can’t understand the logic of a mass deportation of middle income workers because you only want to keep the highest and lowest paid workers. inews.co.uk/news/politic...
inews.co.uk
Exempt care workers from hardline immigration reforms, voters say
Shabana Mahmood plans to double the waiting period for immigrants to qualify for indefinite leave to remain
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Reposted by James Bowes
Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Reports that small shops and takeaways have hired migrants on Skilled Worker visas have appeared in several media outlets recently. Our new Q&A explains why these employers were able to sponsor migrants, how many actually did, whether the government could ban them from using the visa system + more.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
One very interesting thing in the latest data: 110,255 health and care visas and 73,096 skilled worker visas were granted in 2025 to people who already had a work visa. The big question is how many are simply visa renewals and how many are people switching jobs?
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
People coming from abroad on a main applicant work visa are now outnumbered by people switching from a student or graduate visa. Significant for the skilled worker visa as student/graduate visa switchers have a temporarily lower salary threshold, so many will need a big pay rise to extend their visa
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Big fall in student switchers to a work visa, only partially offset by more graduate visa switchers. This latter figure likely to reduce due to the removal of a lot of jobs from the list of eligible occupations.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
It's not just small boats that are falling. Asylum claims within the country have fallen a lot due to stricter visa rules, especially student visa holders. Claims by graduate visa holders peaked later but this is falling too now.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
More main applicant long-term work visas for entry now granted to EU nationals than to South Asians and Africans combined. This is including health and care.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Skilled construction worker roles will remain on the temporary shortage list next year despite concerns about exploitation because of the importance of the sector. But we needn’t have bothered- only 21 visas for entry granted in skilled construction roles Apr-June 2026.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
This is actually a good case study to use. Middlesbrough is perhaps unusual in having such a large increase in non-EU workforce (comparable to Coventry), but this isn't driven by a unique employer demand but by immigrants choosing to live there to study or being housed there as asylum seekers.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
2 myths dispelled in one graph: 1. There aren't a finite number of jobs, it's possible to have a lot of immigration without displacing British workers. 2. Brexit and the emigration of EU nationals wasn't the cause of the increase in non-EU immigration from 2021 onwards.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
July visa application statistics out. 20% fall in student visa applications compared to July 2025. This is significant as it’s the first month with applications by the main summer cohort. Like June work visa applications remain ‘high’ due to seasonal peaks but 47% down on July 2025 (62% on 2024)
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
This is the long term plan for Ukrainians in the U.K. too. The law has been changed to ban Ukrainians from ever getting Indefinite Leave to Remain, even after 10 years.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
I wonder if there is a link between this and the fact that scientists and engineers will be hit hard by Earned Settlement and the high salary threshold? A lot of people who'd traditionally have had a skilled worker visa being redirected to the global talent visa. www.gov.uk/government/n...
gov.uk
Global Talent visa expanded to attract world's brightest researchers to power British innovation
More than 100 innovative research companies can now support the world's brightest researchers to come and work in the UK through the Global Talent visa.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Update on my post about vape shops. It does look like some have sponsored a few workers, so there are about 100 people that were sponsored for visas by them. The numbers were suppressed in my other data due to low numbers per company.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
I’ve looked into this. Most companies on the list of registered sponsors never sponsor a single visa. The only vape company I can find evidence of them sponsoring workers is Acme Vape Ltd who are a massive wholesaler with £80m annual turnover and sponsored 8 people in 2024.
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Reposted by James Bowes
Madeleine Sumption @msumption.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Interesting piece from BBC on vape shops & others still registered to sponsor migrant workers I was on Radio 4 at 6.45am to explain why. It's an unintended consequence of post-Brexit expansion that made mid-skilled jobs (eg electricians etc) eligible www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Car washes and vape shops can still sponsor skilled foreign workers despite visa changes
The rules were tightened in July 2025 to restrict the scheme mostly to graduate-level employees who would be earning at least £41,700.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
In recent years a lot of visas have been sponsored by employers who have subsequently lost their sponsor license. This reached a peak in 2023 when this was a particular problem. Let's look at 2023 in more detail. (1/4)
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
The recent Temporary Shortage List Stage 2 Review recommended most construction worker roles be on the list but had concerns about the risk of exploitation. For context, here are the number of people sponsored in 2023 by occupation split by if their employer has had their sponsor license revoked.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Okay 2026 might not be the lowest year for crossings into the EU after all. As many people crossed in a single day as had crossed in the entire year up to this point. Unlikely to have an impact on crossings to the UK. news.sky.com/story/ceuta-...
news.sky.com
Ceuta latest: Nearly 50,000 migrants breach border and enter Spanish enclave from Morocco in 24 hours
At least 24 people have died during an attempt to cross into the tiny Spanish enclave of Ceuta, in North Africa. Around 50,000 migrants are estimated to have entered, prompting Spain to deploy its mil...
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Interestingly while the number of crossings to Greece and Italy has fallen in July (perhaps due to new EU asylum rules*?), numbers have increased in a lot in Spain. Moroccans and Algerians unlikely to claim asylum though. www.msn.com/en-gb/news/o...
msn.com
MSN
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
Top 20 highest sponsored graduate level jobs in Quarter 1 of 2026. Green means would likely qualify for ILR in 5 years, red means likely 10 years. Visas for entry only. Former international students it's mostly similar jobs but fewer senior managers.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Top 20 occupations for student visa switchers to a work visa in 2025- all occupations.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Top 20 non-graduate jobs (excluding care which has special rules) for switchers from a student visa to a work visa in 2025. Ones in green remain eligible for a work visa from next year.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Based on visa grants in Q1 of 2026, we can expect about 80% of visas for people doing temporary shortage list jobs to go to either Filipinos or EEA nationals. Indians hit hardest by the new changes, but interestingly also Americans hit by sales accounts and business development managers' removal.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Excluding social care, 4,609* visas were given to people switching from a student visa to a work visa in non-graduate jobs in 2025. However, only 271 would have been eligible under the rules from 2027. *the real number is a little larger but small numbers are removed from the data.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
7,077 main applicant visas were granted for skilled worker visas or health and care visas for entry but it would have been 6,431 under the new shortage list rules. So a relatively modest fall. But a fall from 1,153 to 537 amongst non-graduate jobs. The big difference will be grad visa switchers.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Interestingly 5 of the 28 jobs recommended for inclusion on the Temporary Shortage List from next year aren’t currently eligible for a work visa as they’re not on either shortage list.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
All occupations only included on the list for 18 months. It's expected that the updated list in July 2028 will include even fewer jobs. In particular, there are concerns over exploitation in the construction sector, but these jobs were kept for now due to the importance of the sector.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
www.gov.uk/government/p... Reduced Temporary Shortage List of 28 occupations to replace the current two shortage lists (with a few graduate jobs being cut from the list of eligible occupations plus some common occupations in sales and marketing). Disproportionately hits graduate visa switchers.
gov.uk
Temporary Shortage List: Stage 2 report
The Migration Advisory Committee’s final recommendations on occupations for the Temporary Shortage List.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co... This is an eye opener, how much the number of switchers from a student visa has fallen. Graduate visa switchers are more significant, but we don't yet have good data there.
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk
International students entering the UK labour market Migration Observatory
This analysis examines international students staying in the UK for work after their studies, and the jobs they do - including in the care sector.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Earned Settlement won't 'only' force out people in low paid and/or non-graduate jobs. For the following graduate level jobs over half of visas granted in country in 2025 paid below £50,270 and below either the higher salary threshold or the higher going rate; this would mean having to emigrate.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
x.com/CPhilpOffici... Never known a more shameless politician than Chris Philp. He’s literally complaining that Labour haven’t deported immigrants that his Conservative government welcomed into the country. You can no longer get a work visa for these jobs if you didn‘t already have one by July 2025
x.com
Chris Philp MP (@CPhilpOfficial) on X
I heard that dozens of convenience stores, mobile phone shops and bazaars on Whitechapel Road in East London are sponsoring skilled worker visas. I went there yesterday to investigate this scam. H...
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
In country work visa grants have grown a lot recently. Often people renewing their visa or switching jobs, but it also includes student/graduate visa switchers. About half are graduate level jobs (many NHS). Grants for jobs ineligible for a new work visa remain high due to revoked sponsor licenses.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
This is telling. Work visa main applicants for entry only (excludes Apr-Sep 24 because of limited data). This would be even worse if student/graduate visa switchers, dependants, refugees and family/private life route included. (Countries assigned to ethnicity most immigrants from there belong to).
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Work visa applications are actually up in Quarter 2 compared to Quarter 1. Does this mean immigration is increasing again? Not necessarily. Graduate level employment follows seasonal patterns. Financial services recruitment has seasonally increased as normal, but not doctors in training posts.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
The Temporary Shortage List is under review to decide which jobs should be on it from 2027. But numbers are in free fall already despite these jobs remaining eligible. Dependant ban then tougher English test have hit numbers hard. Some nationalities have given up with high visa rejection rates.(1/2)
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Is it really credible that 3 Nepalese skilled workers are bringing 194 dependants with them? Clearly not. The latest Times article is therefore clearly misrepresenting the facts (and deliberately so). Dependant numbers are falling, albeit slower than anticipated. (1/2)
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
If you haven't quite grasped yet just how far immigration has fallen this may help put things into perspective: In the first three months of 2026 there were only 21 visa applications for entry made by Filipino nurses. This is without any visa restrictions making it harder for nurses to come.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Small boat crossings for the first half of the year. The second lowest year post pandemic, slightly ahead of 2023. While crossings have increased with the warmer weather it is still the fewest crossings in June since 2021. 41% fall on last year.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
This has made a huge difference. Only 163 non-prioritised applicants were awarded a training position in round 1 compared to 2,168 last year. There are two further rounds of recruitment, but the trend is very clear here.
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