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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

In my latest piece for @APLNofficial ,I argue that, the disintegration of arms control and the proliferation of emerging and disruptive technologies, unilateral failsafe reviews could act as a veritable confidence-building measure. apln.network/analysis/comme…

apln.network

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Reposted by Syed Ali Zia Jaffery

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists @thebulletin.org · 13/05/2026

"As an NPT state party being the target of nuclear-laden threats, Iran has rightly stressed the need for codifying & legalizing negative security assurances" - the commitment that nuclear states won't use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states.

thebulletin.org

Iran's positions at the NPT Review Conference are rational. Ignoring them would weaken the treaty

Tehran should be engaged with on non-proliferation issues, not bombed and threatened with annihilation.

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Reposted by Syed Ali Zia Jaffery

François Diaz-Maurin @francoisdm.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

Iran has not withdrawn from the NPT and continues to abide by it. To save the non-proliferation regime, global powers must engage with these rational positions rather than resorting to military force, @alizia1992.bsky.social writes. 5/5 Read the full analysis in @thebulletin.org:

thebulletin.org

Iran's positions at the NPT Review Conference are rational. Ignoring them would weaken the treaty

Tehran should be engaged with on non-proliferation issues, not bombed and threatened with annihilation.

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Reposted by Syed Ali Zia Jaffery

François Diaz-Maurin @francoisdm.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

Recent military strikes on Iran's nuclear sites don't just risk escalation—they threaten the structural integrity of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). In a new piece, Syed Ali Zia Jaffery (@alizia1992.bsky.social) explains why ignoring Iran's NPT positions weakens the global treaty. 🧵 1/

The new Permanent Representative of Iran to the United Nations (Vienna), Reza Najafi, delivers Iran's statement at the 11th Review Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) on April 29. Iran has been elected as a vice president of the ongoing NPT Review Conference in New York, despite treaty violations reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency. (Credit: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran)

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

I have penned a few pieces on Iran and the ongoing RevCon. The first one, just published by @thebulletin.org , looks at Iran's positions on core issues at the RevCon. It argues that they are rational, necessitating engagement, not confrontation. thebulletin.org/2026/05/iran...

thebulletin.org

Iran's positions at the NPT Review Conference are rational. Ignoring them would weaken the treaty

Tehran should be engaged with on non-proliferation issues, not bombed and threatened with annihilation.

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

I wrote this a while back: Read the full Substack here: open.substack.com/pub/alizia1992…

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

My take for @PoliticoPak "First, by stepping up as a facilitator and a mediator in the midst of a multi-party, intricate war, Pakistan demonstrated that it is becoming a much more confident middle power..." pakistanpolitico.com/mdtn/

pakistanpolitico.com

What Does Pakistan Gain From a U.S.-Iran Ceasefire? - Pakistanpolitico

Syed Ali Zia Jaffery

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 05/04/2026

Trump might start thinking that ground operations, if carried out, would be successful. He could also say one of the primary objectives of the war was to rescue the pilot, and we achieved that with flying colors.

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Reposted by Syed Ali Zia Jaffery

Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

This is a really important point. I would argue that Hegseth's impact on actual defense strategy and policy is going to be minimal. But his impact on the military as an institution, and on civil-military relations, is already profound and negative.

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 04/04/2026

Absolutely, Netanyahu wants state collapse.

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 04/04/2026

Negotiations are a big no-no when one of the parties is looking for every opportunity to kill the other side's negotiators. Therefore, the U.S. needs to take significant steps to assuage Iran's concerns. So far, the U.S. is in no mood to do that.

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

This is what Prof. Vali said about Iran's Mosaic Strategy on our program yesterday:

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

Out Now on the Center for Security, Strategy and Policy Research , Ejaz Haider and Prof. Dr. Vali Nasr discuss the ongoing Iran war, Iran's retaliatory strategy, Trump's options, and the prospect of de-escalation. youtu.be/j7xT5AAnjKo?...

youtu.be

InFocus With Ejaz Haider EP86: Iran's Strategy of Mosaic Defence

YouTube video by CSSPR

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

"The literature on coercion also informs us that states refuse to comply when coercers put too many demands on the table." My take for The Friday Times www.thefridaytimes.com/30-Mar-2026/...

thefridaytimes.com

The Unreasonableness Of Washington’s 15-Point Proposal

US demands on Iran, conveyed via Pakistan, are seen as excessive and illegal, making a negotiated ceasefire unlikely amid ongoing conflict

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

The partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz is being wrongly framed as a cause despite the fact that it is a consequence of the war imposed on Iran.

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 22/03/2026

What should be worrying for the West is that at no rung has Iran allowed the U.S. and Israel to achieve escalation dominance. This partly explains why it doesn't feel the need to de-escalate.

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

Today, Israel and the U.S. ignored what Schelling called the focal point. Now, it will be curtains, unfortunately.

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

In a piece for the @BulletinAtomic last year, I argued why John Finer's remarks about our imaginary long-range ballistic missiles, as well as the sanctions that followed, will be counterproductive. Tulsi Gabbard has made similar remarks a while back! thebulletin.org/2025/01/why-...

thebulletin.org

Why US sanctions against Pakistan’s ballistic missile program might backfire

The United States could avoid the undesired effects of its sanctions by engaging in more substantive conversations on security with Pakistan.

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Reposted by Syed Ali Zia Jaffery

Stephen Herzog @herzogsm.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

1/4 IR research on so-called “taboo” weapons often focuses on individual systems or very limited comparisons. In new @jpeaceresearch.bsky.social work w/Dave Allison and @laurensukin.bsky.social, we compare aversions across a broader range of weapons (6). #OpenAccess: doi.org/10.1093/jopr...

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

An important, timely conversation between Drs. Christopher Clary and Asfandyar Mir. Force without assurance doesn't engender coercive effects.

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

The attack on Iran's Pars gas facility is a serious escalatory step.

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

The use of brute force by Washington and Tel Aviv against Tehran means that they don't seek to coerce that country. If anything, they aim to obliterate it. For coercion to be effective, assurances of non-action upon compliance are also necessary. No such assurances have been given to Iran.

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

Are the U.S. and Israel really hoping that by killing every important leader, they will find someone palatable and acceptable to take over the reins in Iran?

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

When leaders are abducted and killed, one can kiss goodbye to negotiations and diplomacy. A very dangerous precedent is being set.

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

The U.S. being surprised at Iran's retaliation is particularly surprising! Iran had literally informed everyone about its targeting strategy.

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

With the leadership factor quite pronounced in the Iran war, it is a good time to replug our conversation with @profsaunders.bsky.social on her book, "The Insiders' Game." youtu.be/ECpZxf0FJck?...

youtu.be

InFocus with Ejaz Haider Ep30, Mar 10:'How Elites Make War & Peace' with Prof. Elizabeth Saunders

YouTube video by CSSPR

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

Where is the Iran war headed? Can we see a strategic reset between Iran and the GCC countries? CSSPR hosted @nickjbrumfield.bsky.social , Dr. Reza Khanzadeh, and Dr. Aziz Alghashian to discuss all this. youtu.be/SEzJFfROPXE?...

youtu.be

InFocus With Ejaz Haider EP85: Gulf's Inflection Point

YouTube video by CSSPR

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

Three takeaways from Mojtaba Khamenei 's first message: 1) The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a significant lever, and it will be continually employed. 2) New , unexpected fronts are likely to open. 3) No Deescalation is in the offing with GCC countries.

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

It cannot topple a regime, not least the one like Iran's, given that it thrives on enduring pain for longer periods.

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

Epic Fury is turning out to be a failure of epic proportions. The regime remains intact.

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

One thing that can be said with certitude is this: Washington's clout over Gulf countries will never be the same after this war.

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

At a time when Iran wants to engage the U.S., Gulf states, and Israel in a war of attrition, the pace of attacks becomes somewhat meaningless. This is also because its pain tolerance is greater than the GCC countries'.

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 25/12/2025

In my piece for The Friday Times, I highlight the difficulty associated with eliminating terrorism and argue that Pakistan should devise a holistic CT strategy. www.thefridaytimes.com/25-Dec-2025/...

thefridaytimes.com

Pakistan’s Fight Against Terrorism: Strategy, Communities, And Reform In Action

Pakistan’s counterterrorism strategy must blend force, community empowerment, and reforms to curb TTP and BLA violence effectively

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 11/12/2025

Enjoyed discussing the Saudi-Pak SMDA, the May crisis, the 12-Day War, and broader questions surrounding nuclear weapons, with Ayesha Malik of the War Law Institute. youtu.be/ClREjgfuVvU?...

youtu.be

Will India Attack Pakistan Again? ft. Syed Ali Zia Jaffery

YouTube video by War Law Institute

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Reposted by Syed Ali Zia Jaffery

BASIC | The British American Security Information Council @basicint.bsky.social · 04/12/2025

In the latest of a series of articles assessing recent hostilities between India and Pakistan, Syed Ali Zia Jaffery ( @alizia1992.bsky.social ) says that India’s post-May signalling has centred a willingness to exercise force that invites “uncontrollable escalation“. basicint.org/indias-post-...

basicint.org

India’s Post-May Signalling And The Erosion Of Restraint In South Asia - BASIC

In the latest of a series of articles assessing recent hostilities between India and Pakistan, Syed Ali Zia Jaffery says that India's approach to signalling

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 04/12/2025

As part of @basicint.bsky.social 's series on the Indo-Pak crisis, I examine how India's post-Sindoor signaling has contributed to eroding restraint in South Asia. Grateful to Nicholas Wheeler and Chiara Cervasio for their thoughtful comments all along. basicint.org/indias-post-...

basicint.org

India’s Post-May Signalling And The Erosion Of Restraint In South Asia - BASIC

In the latest of a series of articles assessing recent hostilities between India and Pakistan, Syed Ali Zia Jaffery says that India's approach to signalling

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

It was great hosting Dr. Ahmad Khan in the @CSSPR_UOL Webinar Series. Our discussion was centered on his new book entitled "Sabre Rattling in Space: A South Asian Perspective." youtu.be/2xfjF42zWOY?...

youtu.be

CSSPR Webinar Series: Ali Zia in Conversation with Dr. Ahmad Khan

YouTube video by CSSPR

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 03/08/2025

My latest Substack on how the problem with defining terrorism has contributed to weakening India’s position on it. open.substack.com/pub/alizia19...

open.substack.com

India's Terrorism Mantra and the Definitional Problem

India’s old terrorism mantra against Pakistan is fast losing its sheen.

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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 29/07/2025

My latest Substrack sheds some light on the disadvantages of counterforce targeting. open.substack.com/pub/alizia19...

open.substack.com

Survivability, Counterforce Targeting, and Nuclear Use

I recently read Dr.

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