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Paul Madley-Dowd

@pmadleydowd.bsky.social
112 followers 118 following 36 posts

Research Fellow in Medical Statistics and Health Data Science at the University of Bristol

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Reposted by Paul Madley-Dowd
NIHR Biomedical Research Centre: Bristol @bristolbrc.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
🛠️New tool to help statisticians decide how to handle missing study data. 🎯Multiple imputation (MI) is where missing values are filled using stats techniques. The tool uses directed acyclic graphs to help decide whether MI will lead to misleading results. www.bristolbrc.nihr.ac.uk/improving-ho...
bristolbrc.nihr.ac.uk
Improving how missing data is handled in studies - Bristol Biomedical Research Centre
A new tool to help statisticians decide how to handle missing data in studies has been published by Bristol Biomedical Research Centre (BRC) researchers. In health research, it’s common to have missin...
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
I think this is a good question. In the paper we highlight that few other studies are looking at non target outcomes (e.g. non-COVID deaths) and so more work is needed to better understand what this finding means.
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Reposted by Paul Madley-Dowd
NIHR Biomedical Research Centre: Bristol @bristolbrc.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
🆕 New project! Can we improve autistic people’s health by changing the medicines we prescribe?💊 ❓Is over-prescribing or under-prescribing some types of medicine causing health problems for people with #autism? 👉 bristolbrc.nihr.ac.uk/can-we-impro... @draipsych.bsky.social
bristolbrc.nihr.ac.uk
Can we improve autistic people’s health by changing the medicines we prescribe? - Bristol Biomedical Research Centre
Autistic people often have more health problems and a shorter life expectancy than non-autistic people. Healthcare differences may be a reason for this. For example, medicines that alter mood and brai...
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Reposted by Paul Madley-Dowd
Eric Topol @erictopol.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
In people age 50+, the Covid booster halved hospitalization and deaths. Waning of benefit after 3-6 months For the mRNA BA.1 booster vs no shot after initial vaccination www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
Booster vaccination reduced the risks of both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 outcomes. Protection from booster vaccination waned over time. Effectiveness was similar for Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech bivalent vaccines.
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
Using the target trial framework we estimated the effectiveness of bivalent BA.1 mRNA booster vaccines administered during the autumn 2022 booster program in a study of over 3 million English adults.
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
Latest paper published in Vaccine : doi.org/10.1016/j.va...
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Reposted by Paul Madley-Dowd
Michel Nivard @michelnivard.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Grace Power, @mendelrandom.bsky.social and others (not me!) takes a plausible causal FX of BMI on breast cancer, and narrow down *when* that effect plays out. They find the effects of later BMI on breast cancer are steeply attenuated when conditioned on early BMI. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Lifecourse genome-wide association study meta-analysis refines the critical life stages for adiposity’s influence on breast cancer risk
Improving knowledge of adiposity’s genetic architecture across the lifecourse refines insights into its role in breast cancer.
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Reposted by Paul Madley-Dowd
Ian Hussey @ianhussey.mmmdata.io · 02/12/2025
Works the other way around too. “If I was Jonathan Haidt, how would I destroy the next generation?”
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
This work was inspired by a blog post by Paul Allison which I highly encourage you all to read: statisticalhorizons.com/missing-at-r...
statisticalhorizons.com
The Peculiarities of Missing at Random | Statistical Horizons
Paul Allison explores the nuances of data missing at random (MAR).
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
Disclaimer: the algorithm is conservative. It can tell you that MI will be valid when the m-backdoor criterion is met (assuming your DAG is correct). But where it tells you that the m-backdoor criterion is not met, this only means the MI may not be valid, not that it won’t be valid
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
Using a simple modification to the algorithm we show how to determine whether MI will be valid in subsamples restricted to participants with observed values for some of the incomplete variables
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
Additionally, we incorporate the work of Little and Zhang who showed that even when MI in the full dataset may not be valid, it may be valid in a subsample restricted to participants with observed values for a subset of analysis variables: doi.org/10.1111/j.14...
doi.org
Subsample Ignorable Likelihood for Regression Analysis with Missing Data
Summary. Two common approaches to regression with missing covariates are complete-case analysis and ignorable likelihood methods. We review these approache
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
Our algorithm provides easy to use guidance on how to implement the m-backdoor criterion in your work
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
Building on the work of Mohan and Pearl, Maya Mathur and colleagues have developed the m-backdoor criterion which indicates using DAGs which paths need to be closed (and whether they can be closed) in order for valid imputation osf.io/preprints/os...
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
The definition of MAR (required for valid imputation) becomes tricky when there is more than one incomplete variable. This has led to suggestions to move away from the MCAR/MAR?MNAR classification system. doi.org/10.1093/ije/...
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
Have you ever tried to implement multiple imputation with several incomplete variables? How do you know whether MI will be valid for your data? We have just published an easy to use algorithm using modifications to DAGs (now they're colourful) to aid decision making with MI doi.org/10.1093/aje/...
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
Not an ALSPAC participant but I strongly object to people born the same year as me being described as in "middle age"!
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Reposted by Paul Madley-Dowd
Viktor H. Ahlqvist @ahlqvistviktor.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
theconversation.com/paracetamol-...
theconversation.com
Paracetamol use during pregnancy not linked to autism, our study of 2.5 million children shows
Our research provides strong evidence against the concerning claims made recently by US president Donald Trump.
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Reposted by Paul Madley-Dowd
Adam Kucharski @adamjkucharski.bsky.social · 13/09/2025
When can a 10% improvement be worse than a 5% one? New post on vibe coding and 'volatility tax': kucharski.substack.com/p/the-hidden...
kucharski.substack.com
Vibe coding and 'volatility tax'
The value of predictable improvement
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
I've just begun my journey into grant writing/internal project applications and it is starting to feel more and more like an exercise in click bait production. Why on earth is it more desirable to be vague and punchy than actual explaining what you want to do using field specific standard language
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
@timpmorris.bsky.social @ahlqvistviktor.bsky.social @maartenvsmeden.bsky.social
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
...modelling effects from these simulated patients.
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
I can see a (perhaps naïve) similarity to g-computation (I recognise this is just a tool for estimating marginal effects) but even there the analyst is using predictions based on models that used patient data as opposed to using the models to simulate a control patient and then...
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
Does anyone have any thoughts on digital twins in clinical trials or in-silico trials?
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Reposted by Paul Madley-Dowd
Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
1/ NEW R PACKAGE! For estimating the impact of potential interventions on multiple mediators in countering exposure effects (led by @cttc101.bsky.social) - Paper👉 tinyurl.com/ye26jsps - Package👉 tinyurl.com/yuh4kens Thread shows published examples of how the method can be used! #EpiSky #CausalSky
tinyurl.com
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Reposted by Paul Madley-Dowd
Venexia Walker @venexia.bsky.social · 04/07/2025
🚨 Funded PhD opportunity 🚨 Work with large-scale electronic health record data from #OpenSAFELY to optimise vaccine effectiveness estimation for respiratory viruses. Apply here 👉 www.findaphd.com/phds/project...
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Reposted by Paul Madley-Dowd
Viktor H. Ahlqvist @ahlqvistviktor.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
For those of you using sibling analysis, perhaps you'll find this useful 🥳: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
medrxiv.org
Moving beyond risk ratios in sibling analysis: estimating clinically useful measures from family-based analysis
Objective: Findings from family-based analyses, such as sibling comparisons, are often reported using only odds ratios or hazard ratios. We demonstrate how this can be improved upon by applying the ma...
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
Just adding "The meta-analyst decides that the accumulated evidence is in fact a pileup." as an additional favourite
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
Congratulations Viktor!!
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Reposted by Paul Madley-Dowd
Viktor H. Ahlqvist @ahlqvistviktor.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
Fantastic news! This is entirely attributable to all my colleagues—everyone from mentors to students—who have made this possible🎉🎉 news.ki.se/safer-medica...
news.ki.se
Safer medications for pregnant women and children
Viktor H. Ahlqvist, postdoc at the Institute of Environmental Medicine (IMM), receives 3,000,000 SEK in a Postdoctoral Grant from the Swedish Society for Medical Research (SSMF) for the project “Advan...
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Reposted by Paul Madley-Dowd
Lorenzo Fabbri @epilorenzo.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
It’s my understanding that with the parametric g-formula you use the outcome model to predict the outcome for each subject, independently of whether they are censored. And you take its mean considering ALL N subjects. If the pot. outcome has some NA, I’d still sum and divide by N. Stupid question:
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
I'm even less convinced by these certificates now bsky.app/profile/bkle...
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Reposted by Paul Madley-Dowd
Suzie Cro @suziecro.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
New publication led by @proflouisemarston.bsky.social using multiple imputation to target a hypothetical estimand in a pandemic restriction-free world for a trial in schizophrenia - demonstrating the potential impact of the pandemic on the trial results
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
There's already been a very interesting preprint commentary on our paper by Maya Mathur and Ilya Shpitser which I highly recommend people take a look at : osf.io/preprints/os...
osf.io
OSF
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
Conclusions: - Use auxiliary variables that are completely observed, or have smaller amounts of missing data - Explore the missing data mechanisms of incomplete auxiliary variables - Aim to use auxiliary variables that are independent of their own missingness.
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
"Bias was larger when the auxiliary had a stronger correlation with the outcome...In terms of absolute bias in the MI estimate, this equates to around ... 17% of the true effect size." We would tend to treat such an auxiliary as preferable, but we need to show caution when it has missing data in it
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
The most striking finding to me was that when there was no bias in CRA (and we are using MI to reduce SEs only), including an auxiliary variable with an open path to its own missing data can introduce substantial quantities of bias.
Subsection from Figure 2 of the paper. The image shows a plot with relative bias on the Y axis, and the proportion of missing data in the auxiliary variable on the Z axis. Four coloured lines are on the plot representing different correlations between the outcome and the auxiliary variable. This plot, plot H, displays results for an example where the missingness mechanism for the outcome leads to an unbiased estimate of an exposure outcome
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
We looked at different missing data mechanisms for both an outcome and an auxiliary variable. Where the outcome missingness mechanism led to a biased complete records analysis, increasing proportions of missing data reduced the ability of auxiliary variables to remove bias.
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
But what happens when those auxiliary variables have missing data in them? We didn't know what consequence including incomplete auxiliary variables has on bias of exposure-outcome estimates made using regression models - so we did some simulating.
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
Final version published so time to talk about it: doi.org/10.1093/aje/... When using multiple imputation to account for missing data we often use auxiliary variables (variables included in the imputation model but not the analysis model) to 1) reduce bias and 2) improve statistical efficiency.
doi.org
Analyses using multiple imputation need to consider missing data in auxiliary variables
Abstract. Auxiliary variables are used in multiple imputation (MI) to reduce bias and increase efficiency. These variables may often themselves be incomple
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Work by @ahlqvistviktor.bsky.social @draipsych.bsky.social @karolinskainst.bsky.social @aarhusuni.bsky.social @neilmdavies.bsky.social @danielberglind.bsky.social ... and many more... @natureportfolio.bsky.social
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
The phrase 200% higher looks a lot more alarming than twice the risk of 0.9%. This is nothing new in the area of risk communication - but today it has annoyed me
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
I think there is an issue with people communicating relative risk, they often use language relating to risk difference (i.e. X% higher risk). They’re not wrong but I feel that people should be using phrases like twice the risk instead of 200% higher risk.
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
- At 12 years of age, the children of unexposed mothers had a ... 0.9% risk of intellectual disability ... - With intellectual disability ... polytherapy was associated with a risk of 1.8%. - Taken together, the risk of intellectual disability was ... 200% higher with polytherapy
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
One thing that has frustrated me with the reporting on this is the communication of risk. In an overall well written article (www.news-medical.net/news/2024112...) about our work we have the following (see next):
news-medical.net
Antiseizure medications in pregnancy tied to child neurodevelopment risks
Researchers investigate how anti-seizure medication use during pregnancy may increase the risk of neuropsychological conditions in children.
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
In our latest work we investigated the effect of antiseizure medication prescribing/dispensation in pregnancy on offspring neurodevelopmental outcomes using over 3 million pregnancies from the UK and Sweden. Article out now in Nature Comms: nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Antiseizure medication use during pregnancy and children’s neurodevelopmental outcomes - Nature Communications
Some antiseizure medications including valporate are associated with neurodevelopmental conditions in children exposed in utero but evidence is less clear for other drugs. Here the authors investigate...
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 07/10/2024
We will be covering multiple imputation methods to address 1) where data are missing not at random 2) imputation for multilevel models 3) imputation for survival models, and 4) imputation for propensity score analysis
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Paul Madley-Dowd @pmadleydowd.bsky.social · 07/10/2024
We are running our short course on Advanced Multiple Imputation Methods to Deal with Missing data this December (5th and 6th). link for further info: tinyurl.com/ybu982ru
tinyurl.com
Advanced Multiple Imputation Methods to Deal with Missing Data
Multiple imputation is a principled approach to account for missing data in analyses where valid results depends on careful construction of the imputation model. The potential for misspecification of ...
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