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paulwx

@paulwx.bsky.social
467 followers 1.5K following 259 posts
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paulwx @paulwx.bsky.social · 2h
James Malone won a special election and flipped a Trump+15 seat last year. It was one of the earliest indications of dissatisfaction involving the Trump tariffs.
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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 17h
POLLSTER BIAS THREAD II When is a poll an affiliate/internal? My criteria are that it coordinates directly with a political party / its candidates OR it is run by an openly acknowledged party figure. I mean "Senate GOP's top pollster," as opposed to "The CEO is a Republican by voter registration."
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paulwx @paulwx.bsky.social · 20h
Hopefully Malone is able to hang on in SD-36. Average shift would support D+10 GCB statewide.
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 23h
My PCE Nowcast has September core at +0.26% MoM or +3.2% annualized after the PPI data.
 PCE Nowcast -- September 2026
  ==============================================================================
  Headline PCE MoM:          +0.47%    (trailing 12m: +3.4%)
  Core PCE MoM (ex food/nrg): +0.26%    (trailing 12m: +2.5%)
  CPI read-through PCE MoM:  +0.38%    (trailing 12m: +2.1%)
    ex food & energy:        +0.17%    (trailing 12m: +1.1%)
  PPI read-through PCE MoM:  +0.03%    (trailing 12m: +0.5%)
    ex food & energy:        +0.03%    (trailing 12m: +0.5%)

  Component                              Wt     MoM%  Contrib (pp)  Source
  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Food & beverages (at home)           7.5%    -0.07%       -0.0052  CPI
  Food services & accommodations       7.3%    +0.43%       +0.0313  CPI* [core]
  Energy goods & services              4.2%    +5.20%       +0.2182  CPI
  Core goods (durable + nondurable e  18.3%    +0.25%       +0.0460  CPI [core]
  Prescription drugs                   1.7%    +0.09%       +0.0016  PPI [core]
  Housing services (OER + rent, ex-l  15.0%    +0.33%       +0.0488  CPI* [core]
  Healthcare services                 16.0%    +0.17%       +0.0279  PPI [core]
  Transportation services              3.0%    +0.59%       +0.0176  CPI [core]
  Education services                   2.5%    +0.58%       +0.0144  CPI [core]
  Telephone & communication services   2.0%    +0.16%       +0.0031  CPI [core]
  Personal care services               1.5%    +0.29%       +0.0043  CPI [core]
  Portfolio management services        1.5%    -0.14%       -0.0020  MKT [core]
  Other services (FISIM, recreation,  19.5%    +0.35%       +0.0682  ~est [core]
  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Total                               100.0%                  +0.4742

  Notes: CPI* = weighted blend of CPI sub-series (housing OER/rent, food/lodging).
         PPI series (healthcare, prescriptions) X-13 seasonally adjusted by default.
         MKT = …
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Jesi🃏♠️🔥 @luciferjesit.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
This was such a great answer from Abdul El-Sayed about his previous criticisms of President Obama.
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paulwx @paulwx.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
It's an early vote rally, so should easily be the most productive to date, with direct tangible results, in theory.
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Acyn @acyn.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Trump: I could say the stupidest things and you'd clap
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 09/10/2026
Ossoff says that Mike Collins has "hired half the Third Reich to staff your congressional office"
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 09/10/2026
Troy Jackson: "The gentleman's name was Johan Sebastian Guerrero. He had a 3 year old daughter. The only mistake he made that morning was going to work. Because Sen. Collins is not willing to stand up to Donald Trump, he was murdered in the streets of Biddeford for doing nothing wrong."
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 09/10/2026
Ossoff: "Tonight, a united Georgia will hear the trial the Mike Collins. Mike Collins has brought dishonor to our state through his personal bigotry and his widely documented ties to white nationalists. And he's sold out Georgia in his pathetic child-like devotion to Donald Trump."
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 09/10/2026
El-Sayed: "When Mike Rogers was in Congress, he literally told somebody from the stand, 'If you don't know your privacy is being violated, is it really being violated?' It's like the peeping tom vote you're going after."
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Joe Sonka 😐 @joesonka.lpm.org · 08/10/2026
A poll from a pro-Zach Dembo PAC shows him leading GOP candidate Ralph Alvarado by 9 (!) points in the #ky06 congressional race, a district that Trump won by 15 points in 2024. 47% to 36(!)%. Well now.
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 07/10/2026
SUSAN COLLINS: I was successful in getting road salt removed from the Canada tariff list TROY JACKSON: What about everything else? We can't eat road salt
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MLC @chicyph80.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I gotta tell you fam, I need to give the 3 powerhouse Dem counties in PA their flowers. These mail ballot return rates are INSANE!!! With 4 weeks to go, nearly 41% of all mail ballots have been returns in Philadelphia County! Just unreal numbers here! Way to go Team PA!
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Kevin @reginageorgebush.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
fascinating watching one of the Bulwark's stauncher conservatives realize that being a leftist outsider comes with its own general election advantages in places you might not expect
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paulwx @paulwx.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Received my ballot on Tuesday, mailed it out the same day, & Allegheny county received it this morning.
ALLEGHENY County received your ballot and securely stored it for processing on election day. Ballots cannot be opened before election day.

To find information on your ballot, and to check to make sure it was counted after election day, you can click here: https://www.pavoterservices.pa.gov/Pages/BallotTracking.aspx.

Thank you!
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paulwx @paulwx.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Yeah, toss it completely in the trash. They didn't even try this time. bsky.app/profile/poll...
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paulwx @paulwx.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The generic ballot is even in this poll. Would be considerably more red than 2024. Big if true.
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Abdul El-Sayed @abdulelsayed.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Tomorrow, on October 1, the biggest transfer of wealth from the working class to the wealthy hits a critical milestone. Many of the provisions from the Big Ugly Bill will go into effect, harming hundreds of thousands of Michiganders in order to create tax cuts for the richest people in America.
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Kevin @reginageorgebush.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
👀 Bernie is dipping into his campaign committee's massive bank account to spend and staff up for Peggy Flanagan, Abdul El-Sayed, and Angie Nixon according to new reporting from Politico
politico.com
Sanders ramps up his midterm play with cash boost for candidates
Sanders is putting hundreds of thousands of dollars toward key campaigns and has raised $2.8 million for his preferred candidates this cycle.
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Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
A phenomenal moment in the Senate. Eric Schmitt, R-Mo., claims he has evidence Jack Smith went to a HAWKS game in Atlanta. Smith denies it. Schmitt declares he has busted Jack Smith for perjury. Smith, vexed, says he went to HAWKEYES game in Maryland. WATCH IN FULL, UNINTERRUPTED
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BeshearStan @beshearstan.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Also follow @angieforfl.bsky.social and get her to 15k!
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BeshearStan @beshearstan.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Woah this blew up way bigger then i expected. Donate to angie here and follow for more takes and posts like this! secure.actblue.com/donate/nixon...
secure.actblue.com
Support the movement. Donate today!
Support the movement. Donate today!
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BeshearStan @beshearstan.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
God I love Angie Nixon. I hope she wins
Now @AshleyMoodyFL. Why would I want to abolish the police when I want you arrested and in jail for stealing $10 million from sick kids? BFFR
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paulwx @paulwx.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Believe it is in reference to Trump putting out a video that showed Jeffries wearing a sombrero last year. Hard to keep track of it all. www.cnn.com/2025/09/29/p...
cnn.com
Trump posts racist, AI-generated video of Schumer and Jeffries ahead of looming government shutdown | CNN Politics
As the US government barrels toward a shutdown, President Donald Trump shared a racist video on social media, which appears to be AI-generated, depicting House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries wearing ...
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Daniel Gallen @danieljtgallen.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
“There was an overarching conservatism to Penn State's approach … that would have stood out even if the Nittany Lions had won.” 247sports.com/college/penn...
247sports.com
Penn State’s first blemish under Matt Campbell is an unforgettable one
No. 13 Penn State collapsed in a 24-20 loss to Wisconsin. There was plenty to learn about Matt Campbell and the Nittany Lions in the process.
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Cora Neas, ghost reporter @corabora.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
It's the same thing he said weeks ago tho
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danny @dabbs346.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Video: Susan Collins on her Brett Kavanaugh vote (that led to Roe v. Wade being overturned): "Thank you. It's something that still comes up. He's qualified. And I don't, as I've said, I don't regret that vote." #mesen #mepolitics
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paulwx @paulwx.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
One of the best kinds of emails to receive.
Your ballot is almost ready, and it is being prepared for mailing. If you do not receive your ballot within 7 days, please contact your county election office.

If you have questions concerning your ballot, please contact ALLEGHENY County at (412) 350-4500.

Thank you

****Please do not reply to this email.****
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teamhamiltonhq.bsky.social @teamhamiltonhq.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Meischa was Roger Marshall's patient. This is her story.
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Troy Jackson @troyjackson207.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Susan Collins is blatantly corrupt. Hollywood couldn't write this in a script.
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paulwx @paulwx.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Some questions say they were withheld for a future release. Could be either ME-02 or ME-GOV or both.
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
* US ENERGY SECRETARY CHRIS WRIGHT SAYS DIESEL EXPORT BAN WOULD NOT WORK * WRIGHT SAYS US DIESEL EXPORT BAN WOULD RAISE GASOLINE AND JET FUEL PRICES @reuters.com $XOM $CVX $OSX
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paulwx @paulwx.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
It's even worse than I initially thought. 46D/46R is when you include Dem/GOP leaning independents. This was an R+5 (!!!) sample when you exclude Independents from Dem/GOP totals.
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paulwx @paulwx.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Yep. 2018 was 37D/33R/30I party ID, so this is arguably too Republican a sample for this year.
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paulwx @paulwx.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
D+8 with even party ID is not a bad place to be. @hydevoltyge.bsky.social
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Kevin @reginageorgebush.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
you may now officially add Florida to the list of states where Republicans are spending real money to defend Senate seats, next to Kansas, Nebraska, Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, and South Carolina
x.com
Rob Pyers (@rpyers) on X
Stronger Safer Nation, a SuperPAC funded by Ken Griffin, tobacco, and other interests, drops close to $2.7 million on media buys opposing Democrat Angie Nixon in the #FLSen race
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paulwx @paulwx.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
D+3 generic ballot in Texas as a bonus bsky.app/profile/usap...
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Angie Nixon @angieforfl.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The things squeezing Florida families don’t check your party first. Billionaires don’t care if we can afford to get by. I’m running for Senate to fight for a Florida that works for all of us. #Angie4FL
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paulwx @paulwx.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
There was that rumor of a Fabrizio/Impact poll dropping for Maine.
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 22/09/2026
this is a genuinely crazy story
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Troy Jackson @troyjackson207.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
This is corruption of the highest order. Susan Collins delivered millions in taxpayer dollars for a corrupt donor bankrolling her campaign, and then Donald Trump helped her cover it up. No wonder she voted with him 96% of the time and has rubberstamped his agenda to hurt Maine.
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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
fyi YouGov seems to be in the field for every battleground state and even in most of the reach states
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ashley (spooky) 🕸️ @clearlyashley.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
please. please please please. I need it more than air
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paulwx @paulwx.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Some 👀 results from Dem internals as well
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paulwx @paulwx.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
I know many of us are watching KY-06 for an early flip & potential barometer of what the night may look like, but if this theory is to be believed, KY-05 may be an early important barometer in of itself to test this theory in how much low income conservative whites are swinging vs 2024.
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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
this is a real picture lmao
Pikachu in a spacesuit in the international space station with earth in the background lol
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Micah @rincewind.run · 20/09/2026
if you are a Dem who for whatever reason does not feel comfortable actively defending trans rights (which you should) you have two good response options: 1. ignore it! just keep running ads about the economy 2. “I am focused on your pocketbook, my opponent is focused on children’s genitals”
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paulwx @paulwx.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Not good for ships traveling through Bab el-Mandeb.
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paulwx @paulwx.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Goes without saying that this is a backward looking indicator - so any continued deteoriation in metrics like diesel prices would not be factored into this estimate.
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