iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 10h

Because they bet both sides;

Reposted by Business Otter

If I built an AI lab and it went rogue and deleted all student loan information, I'm betting they'd suddenly figure out how to prosecute me.

4286292437

Reposted by Business Otter

drewtoothpaste @drewtoothpaste.bsky.social · 10h

the media has taken the press release that "AI Has Solved Hundreds Of Difficult Math Problems" at face value and mostly ignored that the few times actual mathematicians reviewed the work, the problems were not solved. if you repeat this claim you're doing the oppressor's work for them

015922

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 12h

These statements are all completely irrelevant to my thesis.

000

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 12h

My thesis is that running an election where you keep the donors happy is more important than whether or not one wins the election. What Sinema did is illustrative of the incentive, but it's not what my thesis is about. Accordingly, your question is to someone who is making claims I do not make.

200

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 12h

So . . . what percentage of Federal Dems is that?

000

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 12h

So what you're saying is that the incentives really start kicking in at Win 4, not Win 1. As soon as you've got Win 4 in the books, you can do a little dance while voting to kill the minimum wage. I mean, sure. I will concede arguendo that after Win 4, Dems would rather lose than piss off donors.

200

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 13h

Our oligarchic elites are all-in on a hard Anthropogenic Climate Change collapse. They have persuaded themselves that there's no avoiding it, only accelerating it, and that they wanna rule from atop a mountain of skulls. Their death urge permeates current politics.

060

Reposted by Business Otter

Matt Novak @paleofuture.bsky.social · 21h

I keep trying to think of any historical example where a given technology's PROMOTERS AND TRUE BELIEVERS were like 'we are absolutely going to ruin your fucking life so be prepared like it's the end of the world'

Andrew Curran: Axios is reporting that the top labs are wargaming scenarios for the aftermath of a catastrophic event in the next 6 - 12 months, that some executives now see as being inevitable.

Axios: Top executives at Anthropic, OpenAl and other Al companies are privately gaming out scenarios for a public and political revolt after a catastrophic AI event.
Why it matters: These officials anticipate a large-scale event, most likely a cyberattack, that shuts down access to financial services, internet connectivity, or even power and water.

Edouard Harris: This is our view as well. Relatedly, average people will want to increase their level of personal resilience and preparedness as their resources allow. We will be publishing about this soon.

Nick Farina: Best ways to be prepared? Generators, water, books and DVDs?

Edouard Harris: Power, water, food, sanitation for most part. Parts of this depend on your geo latitude - solar vs propane for eg.

But also: set aside a computer that is not (and ideally has never been) connected to the internet. Buy faraday pouches and tape. Print out essential docs on paper.

1202513554

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 13h

Also, please learn to disagree respectfully with people who speak respectfully to you. If you wanna go to Twitter and spar with MAGA chuds, have fun, but in the real world, people can and do disagree with you in good faith.

000

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 13h

Not after the first election, not really. Once you've been somewhere for 2 years (or 6), the marginal benefit to another term is way less than the marginal benefit of keeping the donors (on whose behalf you will be lobbying) happy. cf: Sinema

220

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 17h

You are deeply sick for lying about right-wing violence against children to advance your genocidal agenda.

000

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 17h

Of course it's not - this is bog standard right wing antisemitism, no different from the bomb threats called in on Black churches regularly. You, however, are deeply sick for lying about right-wing violence against children to advance your genocidal agenda.

000

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 17h

000

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 17h

000

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 17h

Of course it's not - it's right wing antisemitism, no different from the bomb threats called in on Black churches regularly. You, however, are deeply sick for lying about right-wing violence against children to advance your genocidal agenda.

100

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 17h

The analogy that actually holds is Colin Kaepernick's career. If he had an owner-compatible ideology / personality, he'd have worked a lot more.

100

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 17h

That's when the weird Nash Equilibriums start showing up.

200

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 17h

Ah! Sorry for the double-reply, but I figured out what the issue is. You're treating this as a series of one-off games with different players, when it's a repeated game between the officeholder, the donor base, and the electorate.

210

Reposted by Business Otter

Mei 🪽 @meidotwav.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

treat your body like a data center. consume as much water, art and literature as possible. upset local municipalities with your existence.

38126864270

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 17h

Please don't use "mental illness" as a throwaway like this, thank you. Some of us have actual diagnosed real mental illnesses, and it's nothing like you're describing.

020

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 17h

Risk management. You won't consider options that involve pissing off the donors, because you're not risking a single election, you're risking your entire career. So if you're presented with an option that will vitally improve your electoral chances, but it comes with donor anger, you won't do it.

210

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 17h

It's simple risk management. You just won't consider options that involve pissing off the donors, because you're not just risking a single election, you're risking your entire career.

010

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 17h

Yes - it's much better to keep the donors happy than to win a given election. If the donors are happy (you lost the "right" way), then you're still in the game. If you lost AND made the donors unhappy, your career really is over.

130

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 17h

Individual NBA players earn vastly more by demonstrating the value of being hired by other teams and excelling, even if their team does mediocre in general. The incentives are literally opposite for most officeholders; losing but holding up capitalist interests is remunerative.

430

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 17h

1) Noting the incentives for losing in a way that keeps the donors and party establishment happy isn't saying they're just money hungry. 2) Historically, the actual critique is that capitalist parties agree too much for center-lefties to actually fight fascism. This has been borne out in 2025-6.

480

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 17h

If the purpose of a system is what it does, the modal Federal Democrat is in it to vote for Trump's ICE. Anyways.

210

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 17h

Middle-aged people mostly do what they have been doing.* Anyone who runs for office the first time? Outside Fetterman, they want to win, sure. Their losses are due to inexperience, luck, or unsuitability. Anyone who's running for office the 3rd or 8th or 10th time? I dunno, man. People do things.

120

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 17h

Every Quisling accusation a confession

030

Reposted by Business Otter

Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

New working paper: the Norwegian wealth tax was a huge success. The "exodus" of wealthy people never happened (less than 100 individuals left). Tax revenue increased by 71.5%. No changes in business activity or investment. www.nber.org/papers/w35854

Taxing Entrepreneurial Wealth: Evidence from
Norway, 2021-2025
Marius A. K. Ring
WORKING PAPER 35854|
DOl 10.3386/w35854
ISSUE DATE October 2026
Whether imposing higher taxes on business owners adversely affects business activity by constraining investment and inducing capitalist flight is a central question in the ongoing debate on how to tax the ultra wealthy. To shed new light, I exploit a series of related Norwegian reforms during 2021-2024 that increased dividend tax rates, removed migration-related capital gains tax loopholes, and nearly doubled the effective marginal tax rate on business wealth. These reforms spurred international debate and, allegedly, an "exodus" of Norwegian billionaires (Financial Times,
2023). While I document clear effects on migration, these responses are concentrated among the top 0.1% of the wealth distribution and mostly confined to 2022 and 2023. My results indicate that at most 100 individuals left due to the reforms. I find no evidence of significant outmigration or reduced inflows of startup founders or inventors. I estimate that absent any outmigration, wealth tax revenues would have increased by 75% from 2021 to 2024. Reform-driven outmigration lowers the revenue gain to 71.5%. My findings further show that outmigrating owners' firms remain economically active and do not reduce investment. In a broader set of analyses, I examine whether business outcomes are affected, regardless of whether owners outmigrate, since firms may reduce investment both due to liquidity constraints or distortions to owners' savings decisions. I compare firms owned by Norwegian individuals subject to the wealth tax with firms owned by foreigners and other tax-exempt entities. By merging historical ownership data from Orbis with the Norwegian shareholder register, I perform these analyses on both Norwegian and foreign-domiciled firms.
Across settings, I find no evidence that Norwegian-owned firms pay out more dividends or invest less after the reforms,…

123119335101

Reposted by Business Otter

K @kate10010.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Ed Zitron used AI to create the very first chart in this piece. It made a critical error, which he did not notice because he just learned about bonds last month. THAT is the danger of non practitioners relying on AI output, you don’t know what you’re looking for. The chart is completely inaccurate.

26706107

Reposted by Business Otter

Claudia: alt text please 😩 @lesbianspacemerc.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

If you say we have to vote for non-trans-supportive Dems to stop Republicans… 1. Would you say that if they supported literacy tests at the polls to "cut down on illegals voting"? 2. Would you say the same thing if they said they support bans on abortions until the woman has 9 months of therapy?

7384135

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Well and also Macedonian bots and 13 year olds griefing on the internet for funsies.

000

Reposted by Business Otter

William Snyder @profsnyder.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Redacting the signatory might be unprecedented. I've never seen or heard of the like.

14766130

Reposted by Business Otter

Ben Collins @bencollins.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Sam Altman said people are just gonna have to die in order to implement AI. In the very same week, Anthropic claimed it’s a human rights violation to be mean to the computer. These people need to be held accountable. They think lines of code are a person with rights but living people are debris.

18868061920

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

This is actually a big deal - what if it actually is true that our police departments are totally separated from democratic levers? That's certainly not a democracy any more. So what's the next step in the project?

020

Reposted by Business Otter

Luke O'Neil @lukeoneil47.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

You can’t be named that man

1544428

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

10/10 no notes gonna go see if they have a Patreon

011

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

2. Who cares? The whole point of America is that the oligarch who gets the second-most votes wins. Libs love that shit and never change it. 3. Grow the fuck up. Some people just disagree with you.

000

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

A. HRC in 2016 ran on "I'll harm undocumented people more and better than Trump". B. Biden in 2020 ran the same. C. Biden in 2024 ran on "I'm older and more decrepit than Trump" until he finally gave up, at which point Harris ran on "Joe and I are just as into genocide as Trump".

100

Reposted by Business Otter

Gallifreyan Jedi @jediofgallifrey.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

if you're in line to eat shit because you insisted we had to support the mercenary nazi tattoo rapist guy to beat susan collins STAY IN LINE

716729

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

If there is one truth which is fundamental and total, it's that the Nazi CSAM site is mostly bots and sweatshop posters.

000

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

What an extraordinary - and extraordinarily stupid - claim. Touch grass, friend. You have started hallucinating that the stripper loves you.

100

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Trump's opponent in all 3 ran on "Like Trump, but maybe a little nicer." Trump is America is Trump.

100

Reposted by Business Otter

ThemBOO! @thembo.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

"Social contagion." Is that the thing where a young couple with two full time incomes can barely afford to keep the lights on in a tiny apartment while multiple mounting piles of debt gnaw away their grocery budget

711618

Business Otter @ottersimple.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Trump is America is Trump. We live in the world they shit in.

150