Sign in

Jan-Ole Fischer

@olemole.bsky.social
322 followers 223 following 22 posts

PhD student in Statistics at Bielefeld University interested in doubly stochastic processes and their application to ecology 🦈, sports 🏈 and finance 📈 Website: janolefi.github.io GitHub: github.com/janolefi

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
Methods in Ecology and Evolution @methodsinecoevol.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
📖 Published📖 Inference on state occupancy in covariate-driven hidden Markov models🐢 🌏️ 🧪 Find out more:
buff.ly
Inference on state occupancy in covariate-driven hidden Markov models
0103
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
Freiheitsrechte.org - GFF @freiheitsrechte.org · 25/06/2026
3 Millionen Datenpunkte untersucht.  2.500 Belege gefunden.  13 Monate geprüft.  1 Ergebnis. Die AfD ist verfassungswidrig. Ein zulässiger Verbotsantrag beim Bundesverfassungsgericht hätte wahrscheinlich Erfolg. Das ist das Ergebnis unseres heute veröffentlichten Gutachtens. 🧵
Bild: Alice Weidel, Björn Höcke, Stephan Brandner, Hans-Christoph Berndt, Katrin Ebner-Steiner, Lena Kotré, Beatrix von Storch. Text: Nachweislich verfassungswidrig – Unser AfD-Gutachten belegt: Ein Verbotsverfahren gegen die Partei wäre wahrscheinlich erfolgreich.
11637791847
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
Tyler Morgan-Wall @tylermw.com · 27/06/2026
New package on CRAN! {skymodelr} allows you to generate glorious high dynamic range skydomes in #RStats at any place and date/time! Realistic radiance, 0-15000m altitude, stars, planets, and of course, the moon: modeled with the correct phase and brightness! #rayverse GH: github.com/tylermorganw...
24310
Jan-Ole Fischer @olemole.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
I coauthored a preprint on fitting the #Langevin diffusion model to error-prone tracking data 📄😊
020
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
Ben Bolker @bbolker.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
new diamond open-access Journal of Statistical Ecology launched 🎉🎉🎉 jse.centre-mersenne.org @fredbarraquand.bsky.social @oaggimenez.bsky.social @marieaugermethe.bsky.social @vianeylb.bsky.social (apologies to any Bsky editors I missed)
jse.centre-mersenne.org
Journal of Statistical Ecology Journal of Statistical Ecology
011870
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
Journal of Astrological Big Data Ecology @jabde.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
If it works, it works
1234
Jan-Ole Fischer @olemole.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
New preprint 📑 Fast inference in HMMs with latent Gaussian fields (via SPDE approach + RTMB) ⚡️ 🔗 arxiv.org/abs/2603.17469 We modify the forward algorithm to recover a sparse Hessian ➡️ Fast automatic Laplace approximation Case studies: 1) Detecting stellar flares 2) Lion movement w spatial field
1133
Jan-Ole Fischer @olemole.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
LaMa and RTMBdist updated 😊
020
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
James Balamuta @coatless.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
webRios is live. #rstats on your iPhone and iPad. I showed native R compilation on #iOS last week. Shipping it is another story (thanks, GPL). This version uses #webR 's #WebAssembly build instead. Different tradeoffs, but this one clears App Review. apps.apple.com/us/app/webri...
Promotional image for webRios showing the app icon and an iPhone displaying the R console. The console shows example R commands with syntax highlighting: basic arithmetic (1 + 1), a print statement saying 'Hello from iOS!', a warning message in orange reading 'Uh-oh, I'm in the Apple-verse?', an error message in red with the HAL 9000 quote 'I'm sorry, Dave. I'm afraid I can't do that.', and a plot command.
58329
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
Maya Vienken @mayavienken.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
We have a new preprint on covariate-driven #HMMs! doi.org/10.48550/arX... @olemole.bsky.social, @rolandlangrock.bsky.social • commonly used hypothetical stationary distribution can be biased⚠️ • we propose 2 approaches allowing unbiased inference • simulations and case study on Galápagos tortoises🐢🗺️
063
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
bsvars @bsvars.org · 11/12/2025
⬛🟦⚪ Two years in the making! In a fantastic collaboration with Miguel from the International Labour Organisation! 🖤💙 The 'bpvars' package for Forecasting with Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressions is out on CRAN! And it's spectacular! cran.r-project.org/package=bpvars #bpvars #bsvars.org #rstats
The 'bpvars' package for Forecasting with Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressions
094
Jan-Ole Fischer @olemole.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
Our paper on #HMMs with periodically ⏰ varying transition probabilities is published! 🎉 @carlinafeldmann.bsky.social, Sina Mews, @rmichels.bsky.social @rolandlangrock.bsky.social doi.org/10.1214/25-AOAS2107 We derive the periodically #stationary distribution and the implied dwell-time distribution
Periodically stationary distribution (probability that the fly is active) as a function of the time of day.
True stationary distribution is compared to biased approximation, and we see a substantial difference.
1155
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
Kelly Bodwin @kellybodwin.com · 09/12/2025
%notin% is coming to Base R! Heck to the yes. We are truly blessed on this day, thank you R Core. 🤩 #rstats
Screenshot of an item in the new R-devel release, that says:

x %notin% table newly in base is an idiom for !(x %in% table) and provided almost entirely for convenience and code readability, from an R-devel suggestion, after many years of private definitions mostly hidden in packages, including in R's tools package.
4546
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
ᴅʀ. ᴍᴏᴡɪɴᴄᴋᴇʟ'ꜱ @drmowinckels.io · 03/12/2025
Day 2: devtools - Essential Development Workflow 🔧 The devtools package streamlines your package development workflow with key functions! ⚡ 💡 Pro Tip: Use Ctrl/Cmd + Shift + L in RStudio to quickly run load_all(). 📚 Resources: devtools.r-lib.org #RPackageDev #RStats #devtools #RPackageAdvent2025
devtools.r-lib.org
Tools to Make Developing R Packages Easier
Collection of package development tools.
1103
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
Théo Michelot @theomichelot.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
We have a preprint about modelling three-dimensional movement tracks, led by @njklappstein.bsky.social. The model takes the form of a step selection function and, just like in 2D, it can include directional persistence, attraction to targets, and habitat selection. doi.org/10.1101/2025...
Figure with two panels. Left panel: visualisation of a 3D movement track. Right panel: visualisation of the 3D direction of movement as two angles (one horizontal angle and one vertical angle).
0165
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
Théo Michelot @theomichelot.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
moveHMM version 1.0 turns 10 today 🎉 Such a fun 10 years; exchanging with folks who use the package (and its extensions) has been one of the best parts of my job!
Version history of moveHMM R package, showing version 1.0 dated 2015-10-23
1162
Jan-Ole Fischer @olemole.bsky.social · 05/09/2025
Our review paper on latent Markov models is now published in Statistical Modelling! 🎉 @rolandlangrock.bsky.social @SinaMews. We discuss choosing the right time and space formulation and provide the R package 📦 LaMa for fast ⚡and flexible estimation. 📄 Paper: journals.sagepub.com/eprint/UETXX...
sagepub.com
1121
Jan-Ole Fischer @olemole.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
My paper is out! 🎉 I explore hidden semi-Markov models with covariate-dependent state dwell-time distributions — because sometimes Markov just isn’t enough. Case study: Arctic muskox movement! 🦬📊 🔗 www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... #stats #TimeSeries #HSMM #StatisticalEcology #rstats
sciencedirect.com
Hidden semi-Markov models with inhomogeneous state dwell-time distributions
The well-established methodology for the estimation of hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) as hidden Markov models (HMMs) with extended state spaces is …
182
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
Vincent Arel-Bundock @vincentab.bsky.social · 14/02/2025
Rdatasets is a collection of 2300 free and documented datasets in CSV format. It's a great resource for teaching and exploration! The new `get_dataset()` function from the {marginaleffects} 📦 allows you to search and load them directly in #Rstats. vincentarelbundock.github.io/Rdatasets/ar...
210128
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
Bluesky @bsky.app · 06/02/2025
happy first birthday to Bluesky, and what a year it's been! with every day, the need for an open network that puts people first becomes increasingly clear. we're glad to be building this with you. after all, the heart of a social network is the people.
Popular meme format, grandma labeled with "bluesky's public launch was one year ago today." Younger person helping her labeled with "sure grandma let's get you to bed."
344315239513746
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
Vianey Leos Barajas @vianeylb.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
The world is on 🔥 -- and here's my first publication in an astronomy journal: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3... We combine Gaussian processes + hidden Markov models to efficiently detect stellar flares in one modelling step. 🧪
2399
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
Katharina Ammann @kammann.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
Could watch this animation all day 😍 Did you know that you can create GIFs with gganimate()? They can even be embedded in a latex PDF file and played via Adobe Acorbat Reader 💥 #ggplot #gganimate #datavisualisation #statisticalmodelling #finance #economics #quants
172
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
I'm just saying this is syntatically correct #rstats code
1612925
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
Sam Burgess @oceanterra.org · 10/01/2025
2024 @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social #climate data out today: 📈 2024 - first year more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial; for ERA5 it was 1.6ºC 🌡️ the past 10 years were the 10 warmest years on record 📈 2024 was warmest year for all continental regions, except Antarctica and Australasia 🌍🌡️🧪⚒️🌊
6155107
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
Sam Power @spmontecarlo.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
Quite a nice watch: youtu.be/TE4R8bumI-Q?...
youtu.be
On Theoretical Foundations of Diffusion Models
YouTube video by C3 Digital Transformation Institute
0354
Jan-Ole Fischer @olemole.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
In this year‘s NFL Big Data Bowl 🏈 submission, @rmichels.bsky.social, Robert Bajons, and I employ hidden Markov models to uncover 🔎guarding assignments and use this additional information to improve the prediction of defensive strategies. 📊 #bigdatabowl #rstats
381
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
Michael Lopez @statsbylopez.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
Big Data Bowl submissions are due tomorrow 🚨🚨 The deadline is 11:59 PM UTC, which is 6:59 PM EST 🚨🚨 #BigDataBowl
292
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
Sharon Machlis @smachlis.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
The {matrixStats} #RStats 📦 “provides highly optimized functions for computing common summaries over rows and columns of matrices, e.g. rowQuantiles(). There are also functions that operate on vectors.” By @henrikbengtsson.bsky.social github.com/HenrikBengts...
Example

With a matrix

> x <- matrix(rnorm(20 * 500), nrow = 20, ncol = 500)
it is many times faster to calculate medians column by column using

> mu <- matrixStats::colMedians(x)
than using

> mu <- apply(x, MARGIN = 2, FUN = median)
Moreover, if performing calculations on a subset of rows and/or columns, using

> mu <- colMedians(x, rows = 33:158, cols = 1001:3000)
is much faster and more memory efficient than

> mu <- apply(x[33:158, 1001:3000], MARGIN = 2, FUN = median)
0184
Jan-Ole Fischer @olemole.bsky.social · 30/12/2024
I crunch a lot of numbers to ultimately tell people „yeah this thing may or may not happen idk“.
040
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
Bluesky @bsky.app · 30/12/2024
What a year! Bluesky opened its doors just last February. Since then, we opened federation, launched video, rolled out trending topics, and a whole lot more. Happy New Year, and here’s to a great year ahead! 🎉
bsky.social
2024 In Review - Bluesky
It’s been a big year for Bluesky! Let's take a look back at everything that’s happened in the past year.
1656509135465
Jan-Ole Fischer @olemole.bsky.social · 30/12/2024
Every time it’s called a classifier, somewhere, a statistician dies. 😵‍💫 #stats #ML
5151
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
Stephen Wild @stephenjwild.bsky.social · 28/12/2024
Ooooooo arxiv.org/abs/2401.00649
arxiv.org
Linear Model and Extensions
I developed the lecture notes based on my ``Linear Model'' course at the University of California Berkeley over the past seven years. This book provides an intermediate-level introduction to the linea...
1315
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
Crystal Lewis @cghlewis.bsky.social · 29/12/2024
2627
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
R stats memes @rstats-sky.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
Boromir from Lord of the Rings saying "ONE DOES NOT SIMPLY INSTALL PYTHON"
0344
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
Olivier Gimenez 🦦 @oaggimenez.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
Does probability exist?
Probably not — but it is useful to act as if it does.
1207
Jan-Ole Fischer @olemole.bsky.social · 25/12/2024
Sina Mews, Roland Langrock, and I have updated 🆕 our review paper! It offers a comprehensive overview on choosing the right time ⏰ and space 📏 formulation for latent Markov models, providing a unifying perspective on discrete- and continuous-time HMMs, SSMs and MMPPs. 👉 arxiv.org/abs/2406.19157
arxiv.org
How to build your latent Markov model -- the role of time and space
Statistical models that involve latent Markovian state processes have become immensely popular tools for analysing time series and other sequential data. However, the plethora of model formulations, t...
1166
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
Demetri @phdemetri.bsky.social · 25/12/2024
You will be visited by three ghosts
A log likelihood is shown. The quantities for the score, wald, and likelihood tests are illustrated with respect to the log likelihood.
626131
Reposted by Jan-Ole Fischer
Christoph Molnar @christophmolnar.bsky.social · 24/11/2024
I feel like not enough people know about Quarto for creating documents. How it works: Write in markdown and use Quarto to convert it to html, pdf, epub, ... I produce my books with Quarto (web + ebook + print version). But you can also use it for websites, reports, dashboards, ... quarto.org
quarto.org
Quarto
An open source technical publishing system for creating beautiful articles, websites, blogs, books, slides, and more. Supports Python, R, Julia, and JavaScript.
1618026