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bsvars

@bsvars.org
651 followers 343 following 243 posts

See our 𝗥 packages 𝗯𝘀𝘃𝗮𝗿𝘀, 𝗯𝘀𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗦𝗜𝗚𝗡𝘀, 𝗯𝗽𝘃𝗮𝗿𝘀, 𝗯𝘃𝗮𝗿𝘀, and 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗟𝗶𝗸𝗲𝗕𝗮𝘆𝗲𝘀 developed using frontier econometric methods and 𝗖++ code by @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social and @adamwang15.bsky.social bsvars.org #bsvars #bsvarSIGNs #bpvars #bvars #rstats

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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
💙💛 Join us TODAY for an online workshop on bpvars 💛 an R package 💙 for Forecasting with Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressions! 💙💛 💙💛 It's a unique opportunity to get insights into thsi remarkable material 💙💛 💙💛 You can still register at: bit.ly/3wBeY4S 💙💛 See you soon! #bpvars #rstats #forecasting
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
💙💛 We have a plan! ...for the All about bpvars Workshop for Ukraine! Have a look! 💙 data prep 💛 panel VARs 💙 estimation 💛 missing observations 💙 forecasting labour markets 💛 reporting forecasts 💙 forecast performance evaluation 💛 Register: bit.ly/3wBeY4S #IsupportUKR #bpvars #rstats #forecasting
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
💙💛 Hej! Our Workshop for Ukraine on 💙All about bpvars💛 takes place 💙💛 TOMORROW! 💙💛 💙💛 Register NOW at: bit.ly/3wBeY4S 💙💛 @dariia.bsky.social #IsupportUKR #bpvars #rstats #forecasting
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Dariia Mykhailyshyna @dariia.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
This workshop is in two days so don’t forget to register ! Details: bit.ly/3wBeY4S Please share! #AcademicSky #EconSky #RStats
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Dariia Mykhailyshyna @dariia.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
❗️Our next workshop will be on September 10th 6 pm CET by @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social on bpvars for forecasting with Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressions Register or sponsor a student by donating to support Ukraine! Details: bit.ly/3wBeY4S Please share! #AcademicSky #EconSky #RStats
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
💙💛 Register: sites.google.com/view/dariia-... 💙💛 We cover: modelling, forecasting, coding 💙💛 The vignette has 40 pages so a nice intro might help a lot 💙💛 a powerful package for forecasting multivariate time series for many countries 💙💛 conditional forecasting and handling missing observations
sites.google.com
Dariia Mykhailyshyna - Workshops for Ukraine
Feedback on the past workshops (if you want to learn how to make wordclouds, check out Text Data Analysis workshop below)
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
💙💛 Hej! Join me THIS THURSDAY for my online seminar on 💙💛 All about bpvars 💙💛 a unique opportunity to learn the R package for Forecasting with Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressions 💙💛 Workshops for Ukraine by the greatest @dariia.bsky.social 💙💛 See you! #IsupportUkraine #rstats #forecasting #bpvars
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
💙💛 Presenting at Workshops for Ukraine by @dariia.bsky.social is huge for me! 💙💛 To celebrate Ukraine and this occasion I prepared a Ukraine flag-coloured logo of the bpvars package! 💙💛 Join us THIS THURSDAY for my online seminar 💙💛 bit.ly/3wBeY4S #IsupportUkraine #rstats #forecasting #bpvars
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ArXiv Paperboy (Stat.ME+Econ.EM) @paperposterbot.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
arXiv📈🤖 A Design Concept of Forecasting Software for Normalized Vector Autoregressions with Fat Tails and Stochastic Volatility By Shang, Wang, Wo\'zniak
We present a suite of R packages for macroeconomic forecasting that leverages advanced Bayesian, structural, multivariate, dynamic, hierarchical, non-linear, and non-Gaussian models. The suite enables both structural and predictive analyses, and is adapted to time series data across various types, dimensions, and sampling frequencies. Each additional feature increases computational complexity. To address this challenge, our software design incorporates a carefully curated selection of models, efficient algorithms implemented in C++, advanced econometric and numerical methods, robust handling of complex input and output objects, and standardised workflows. This approach combines the computational efficiency of C++ with the convenience of working with data in R. We demonstrate that our packages facilitate original research contributions in forecasting, as illustrated by our example in which vector autoregressions with non-centred stochastic volatility enhance density and point predictions relative to models with centred stochastic volatility.
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CRAN Package Updates Bot @cranberriesfeed.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
CRAN updates: bamp rSPDE StealLikeBayes #rstats
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
❤️🖤 We stole two more samplers from non-standard distributions and made them available to all 🖤❤️ ❤️🖤 Have a look! 🖤❤️ 🖤 bsvars.org/StealLikeBay... ❤️ cran.r-project.org/package=Stea... #rstats #StealLikeBayes
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
🌟 The design includes: 💛 suite of models 💛 econometric and numerical methods 💛 algorithms in C++ 💛 handling of inputs and outputs 💛 simple workflows 🌐 doi.org/10.48550/arX... #forecasting #rstats #bsvars #bsvarSIGNs #bvars
doi.org
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
⭐ HA! A new working paper on software design for our R packages bsvars, bsvarSIGNs, and bvars is out! ✨ Have a look! 🌐 doi.org/10.48550/arX... #forecasting #rstats #bsvars #bsvarSIGNs #bvars
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
⭐ Have a look at Adam's presentation of our new working paper on the software design for our R packages bsvars, bsvarSIGNs, and bvars! 💛 It's all about 💛 models 💛 techniques 💛 C++ 💛 IO 💛 workflows 🌐 bsvars.org/2026-08-conc... 🌐 doi.org/10.48550/arX... #forecasting #rstats #bsvars #bsvarSIGNs #bvars
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
⭐ This holds for ⭐ structural VARs and common volatility BVARs ⭐ point and density forecasts ⭐ 1-month and 1-year ahead forecasts 🌐 doi.org/10.48550/arX... #forecasting #bvars #sv #rstats #bsvars #bsvarSIGNs #bvars
doi.org
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
⭐ Alright! In our new working paper we show that ⭐⭐ Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with non-centred Stochastic Volatility forecast better than those with centred Stochastic Volatility! ⭐⭐ ⭐ That's huge! 🌐 doi.org/10.48550/arX... #forecasting #bvars #sv #rstats #bsvars #bsvarSIGNs #bvars
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
💛🩷 the methods implemented in bsvars version 4.0 are based on sound research 💛🩷 a methodological paper for the package was published in the Journal of Econometrics 💛🩷 see Lütkepohl, Shang, Uzeda, Woźniak (2026) doi.org/10.1016/j.je... #bsvars #rstats #econsky
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
💛🩷 the bsvars package development gets collaborative! 💛🩷 Fei did code revision 💛🩷 Xiaolei and Bruno sent PRs 💛🩷 Rob suggested improvements 💛🩷 Helmut, Luis and Fei coauthored a paper 💛🩷 cran.r-project.org/package=bsvars @adamwang15.bsky.social @robjhyndman.com #bsvars #rstats #cooperation #econsky
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
💛🩷 install.packages("bsvars") #bsvars #rstats
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
🩷💛 a new exogeneous volatility regimes model available in bsvars 4.0 🩷💛 choose when volatility changes 🩷💛 commonly used 🩷💛 might work well with data 🩷💛 fast estimation 🩷💛 see Brunnermeier, Palia, Sasry, Sims (2021, AER) 🩷💛 see Shang, Woźniak (2026) arxiv.org/abs/2603.16035 #bsvars #rstats #econsky
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
💛🩷 a new feature of Student-t shocks available in bsvars 4.0 💛🩷 all models may feature Student-t shocks 💛🩷 source of identification 💛🩷 verify identification 💛🩷 improved forecasting 💛🩷 ensured normalisation 💛🩷 see Shang, Wang, Woźniak (2026) - coming up soon #bsvars #rstats #econsky
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
💛🩷 see Shang, Woźniak (2026) doi.org/10.48550/arX...
doi.org
Identification Verification for Structural Vector Autoregressions with Sparse Heterogeneous Markov Switching Heteroskedasticity
We propose a structural vector autoregressive model with a new and flexible specification of the volatility process which we call Sparse Heterogeneous Markov-Switching Heteroskedasticity. In this mode...
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
💛🩷 identification verification - a new feature bsvars 4.0 💛🩷 verify identification via heteroskedasticity 💛🩷 verify non-normality 💛🩷 for all volatility models 💛🩷 flexible specification 💛🩷 see Lütkepohl, Shang, Uzeda, Woźniak (2026) doi.org/10.1016/j.je... #bsvars #rstats #econsky
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
🩷🖤 Access all the features of the new version of the R package bsvarSIGNs for Bayesian Estimation of Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified by Sign, Zero, and Narrative Restrictions by typing: 🩷🖤 install.packages("bsvarSIGNs") 🩷🖤 cran.r-project.org/package=bsva... #bsvarSIGNs #rstats #econsky
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
🩷💛 new features in version 4.0 of the R package bsvars 🩷💛 new volatility models 🩷💛 Student-t shocks 🩷💛 identification verification 🩷💛 improved plot and summary 🩷💛 code improvements 🩷💛 bsvars.org/bsvars/ #bsvars #rstats #foss #econsky
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
See more in our recent working paper: arxiv.org/abs/2603.16035
arxiv.org
Identification Verification for Structural Vector Autoregressions with Sparse Heterogeneous Markov Switching Heteroskedasticity
We propose a structural vector autoregressive model with a new and flexible specification of the volatility process which we call Sparse Heterogeneous Markov-Switching Heteroskedasticity. In this mode...
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
🩷💛 a new Markov switching volatility model available in bsvars 4.0 🩷💛 heterogeneous specification 🩷💛 a Markov process per shock 🩷💛 sparse specification 🩷💛 excellent forecasting 🩷💛 precise estimation 🩷💛 see Shang, Woźniak (2026) 🩷💛 arxiv.org/abs/2603.16035 #bsvars #rstats #econsky
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CRAN Updates @cranupdates.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Updates on CRAN: actinet (0.4.0), bsvars (4.0), colorr (1.1.0), dann (1.2.0), eiIT (0.0.2-1), funcml (0.9.0), glyrepr (1.0.0), gorica (0.1.6), GPArotation (2026.8-2), GRIN2 (2.1.0), heims (0.4.3), hexify (0.8.2)
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
🩷💛 A new version 4.0 of the R package bsvars has just landed on CRAN! 🩷💛 Bayesian Estimation of Structural Vector Autoregressive Models 🩷💛 With plenty new features and models! 🩷💛 It's awesome! 🩷💛 cran.r-project.org/package=bsvars #bsvars #rstats #foss #econsky
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
🩷💛 A new version 4.0 of the R package bsvars has just landed on CRAN! 🩷💛 Bayesian Estimation of Structural Vector Autoregressive Models 🩷💛 With plenty new features and models! 🩷💛 It's awesome! 🩷💛 bsvars.org/bsvars/ #bsvars #rstats #foss
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
💜🖤 bsvarSIGNs new feature: COVID-specific volatility 💜🖤 The package uses a flexible BVAR with estimated hyper-parameters of the Minnesota prior by Giannone, Lenza & Primiceri (2015, RESTAT) 💜🖤 The model is NOW extended by COVID-specific volatility as in Lenza & Primiceri (2022, JAE) 💜🖤 bsvars.org
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
💜🖤 bsvarSIGNs new feature: small-open economy 💜🖤 The package NOW features a small-open economy model 💜🖤 It is estimated with block-exogeneity restrictions on structural and autoregressive parameters 💜🖤 It allows sign and narrative restrictions 💜🖤 bsvars.org/bsvarSIGNs/ #bsvarSIGNs #rstats
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
💜🖤 bsvarSIGNs new feature: parallel computations 💜🖤 We implemented parallel computations for posterior sampling 💜🖤 This is possible thanks to the particular model specification 💜🖤 Model estimation is even faster NOW 💜🖤 bsvars.org/bsvarSIGNs/ #bsvarSIGNs #rstats
bsvars.org
Bayesian SVARs with Sign, Zero, and Narrative Restrictions
Implements state-of-the-art algorithms for the Bayesian analysis of Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVARs) identified by sign, zero, and narrative restrictions. The core model is based on a flexibl...
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
🩷🖤 NEW FEATURES in version 3.0 of bsvarSIGNs 🩷 BVAR with COVID-specific volatility as in Lenza, Primiceri (2022, JAE) 🖤 Small-open economy model with sign and narrative restrictions 🩷 Even faster parallel computations for posterior sampling 🖤 More info at: bsvars.org/bsvarSIGNs/ #bsvarSIGNs #rstats
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
🖤🩷 WOW! 🩷🖤 🖤🩷 Version 3.0 of our R package bsvarSIGNs is on CRAN now! 🩷🖤 🖤🩷 And it has new superb features! 🩷🖤 🌐 have a look: bsvars.org/bsvarSIGNs/ #bsvarSIGNs #rstats #foss #structural #BVARs #macro #forecasting #econsky
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
🖤🩷 Big news! bsvarSIGNs version 3.0 is on CRAN now! And it's great! 🩷🖤 🌐 have a look: cran.r-project.org/package=bsva... Thanks @adamwang15.bsky.social #bsvarSIGNs #rstats #foss #structural #BVARs #macro #forecasting #econsky
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
⭐⭐⭐ bsvars has reached 30K downloads! ⭐⭐⭐ ⭐⭐⭐ Infinite thanks to all the users! Thank you! ⭐⭐⭐ ⭐⭐⭐ bsvars.org ⭐⭐⭐ ⭐ Watch this space! There's lots of new things coming! #bsvars #rstats #foss #econsky
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
🌟🌟🌟 bsvarSIGNs has reached 10K downloads 🌟🌟🌟 🌟🌟🌟 Thanks to all of you who downloaded and used the package! 🌟🌟🌟 🌟🌟🌟 bsvars.org 🌟🌟🌟 🌟 More goodies is coming soon! #bsvarSIGNs #rstats #foss #econsky
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
💝 Ah, it's so good when co-authors go through the final code review! 🛍️ Thanks Fei for correcting the forecasts! 💖 github.com/bsvars/bsvar... #bsvars #forecasting #cooperation #foss #econsky
github.com
Fix recursive forecasts for non-centred SV and Student-t specs by lcq110 · Pull Request #143 · bsvars/bsvars
I found two issues in src/forecast.cpp. 1. Non-centred SV forecasts The current code has: ht(n) = posterior_omega(n, s) * (posterior_rho(n, s) * ht(n) + xx); forecasts_sigma2(n, h, s) = exp...
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
🖤💙 Save the date! 💙💛 My Workshop for Ukraine organised by @dariia.bsky.social is "All About bpvars" and takes place on Sep 10! Pls remember to register and see you then! 🌐 sites.google.com/view/dariia-... #w4UKR #bpvars #rstats
sites.google.com
Dariia Mykhailyshyna - Workshops for Ukraine
Feedback on the past workshops (if you want to learn how to make wordclouds, check out Text Data Analysis workshop below)
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
🖤💙 Save the date! 💙💛 My Workshop for Ukraine organised by @dariia.bsky.social is "All About bpvars" and takes place on Sep 10! Pls remember to register and see you then! 🌐 sites.google.com/view/dariia-... #w4UKR #bpvars #rstats
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
❤️💛💚 Coming up soon! I'm presenting the newest version of our R package bpvars for forecasting with Panel Vector Autoregressions at Ghana R Conference! 🖤💙 I cant wait! 🌐 ghana-rusers.org/events/?even... #rstats #Ghana #useR #forecasting #bpvars
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bsvars @bsvars.org · 08/07/2026
❤️💛💚 Already this Friday! Tomasz is presenting the newest version of our R package bpvars at the Ghana R Users Conference! ❤️💛💚 The package and the material is great! And the conference looks super interesting! Join us ❤️💛💚 ❤️💛💚 bsvars.org/2026-07-Ghan... #rstats #useR #Ghana #bpvars #bsvars
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bsvars @bsvars.org · 01/07/2026
That's a co-author grade 🐲 Finds a mistake in preliminary code, corrects your C++ code, submits a Pull Request, becomes a contributor! I think we have a paper! Thanks, Fei Shang! github.com/bsvars/bsvar... #bsvars #rstats #cooperation
github.com
Correction of student-t df sampling by lcq110 · Pull Request #140 · bsvars/bsvars
I think I found a typo in src/sample_t.cpp, in function log_kernel_df(). The current code has: lk_df += 0.5 * T * aux_df * log(0.5 * (aux_df + 2)); lk_df -= 0.5 * (aux_df - 2) * accu(log(aux_lambda...
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bsvars @bsvars.org · 26/06/2026
🌆 verbs are functions in our R packages 🌇 bsvars bsvarSIGNs bpvars bvars 🌆 🌟 specify a model ✨ estimate it ⭐ compute things to interpret 💫 forecast future values ✨ verify hypotheses 💛 bsvars.org #bsvars #rstats
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bsvars @bsvars.org · 26/06/2026
🌆 functions verify test model and data properties in our R packages 🌇 bsvars bsvarSIGNs bpvars bvars 🌆 🌟 verify homoskedasticity ✨ verify normality ⭐ verify restrictions on autoregressive parameters 💫 using Bayes factors 💛 bsvars.org #bsvars #rstats
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bsvars @bsvars.org · 26/06/2026
🌆 function forecast is used to obtain draws from the predictive density in our R packages 🌇 bsvars bsvarSIGNs bpvars bvars 🌆 🌟 Bayesian forecasting with state-of-the-art models ✨ point/density forecasting ⭐ great plots 💫 blazingly fast computations 💛 bsvars.org #bsvars #rstats #forecasting
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Tomasz Woźniak @tomaszwozniak.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
🌟 we use non-centred stochastic volatility for structural VARs ✨ with a prior for variances centred at homoskedasticity with strong shrinkage 💫 verify partial identification of a shock ⭐ efficient estimation and normalisation 💛 great for fiscal policy 💝 the paper behind my R package bsvars #bsvars
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bsvars @bsvars.org · 25/06/2026
💝 Our paper behind the R package bsvars is out now in the Journal of Econometrics! 💖
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bsvars @bsvars.org · 23/06/2026
🌆 use our function compute to process estimation output and obtain posterior draws for quantities of interest 🌆 🌟 impulse responses ✨ forecast variance decomposition 💫 historical decomposition ⭐ structural shocks 💛 fitted values 🌟 conditional sd 💫 regime probabilities 🌐 bsvars.org #bsvars #rstats
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