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nickpmorgan.bsky.social

@nickpmorgan.bsky.social
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 12/10/2026
The more you know ... The 4-year running average for the global temperature anomaly is forecast to break the Paris Limit of 1.5°C over the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline on November 17, 2026. We'll be covering the moment. Stay tuned!
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 11/10/2026
My latest on Substack. "The first truth about climate metaphors is that no metaphor exists that fully encapsulates how fucked everything is. Yes, the doomsday glacier is a ticking time bomb and the oceans are boiling, but what about coral tipping, what about ESAS and Siberian methane?"
climatecasino.substack.com
All the Canaries are Dead!
Long live the meta-metaphorical canary!
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UK Health Security Agency @ukhsa.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
🆕📊 The first #UKHSAVirusWatch graphs of the season are here, showing both flu & COVID-19 increasing, with possible signs of an early flu season. 🟢 Flu positivity rose to 6.5%, up from 5.0% the previous week
Flu positive tests (%)
 Data: 06 October 2025 to 04 October 2026
 Green line chart showing flu test positivity peaking during winter 2025/26, remaining low through spring and summer, then rising again ahead of winter 2026.
 Source: SGSS, England only, 7-day rolling average.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 10/10/2026
Tides in Santa Barbara are running 1-2 feet above predicted levels. Why? Thermal expansion due to record ocean temperatures, the Kelvin waves from the current El Nino and tropical storm Rachel. Interesting times are getting even more interesting. tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb...
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 06/10/2026
Breaking News! Code UFB!!! For the first time in recorded history, the Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature (SST) is above 30.0°C, reaching a preliminary SST of 30.06°C on October 5th. The Niño 3.4 SST anomaly is now 3.41°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. Everything is not fine.
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John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch.ft.com · 04/10/2026
What’s the evidence on rent control? I charted the findings from 112 studies: Great for rent-controlled tenants ✅ But: Pushes up rents for other people ❌ Pushes down new housing construction ❌ Pushes down building quality ❌
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Angry People in Local Newspapers @apiln.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
FARTGATE: Tomorrow’s Lancashire Telegraph is an absolute joy to behold. Buy it. Treasure it. Leave it to your grandchildren. #BuyALocalNewspaper
Lancs Telegraph front page: A POINT
OF ODOUR
Reform councillor 'broke wind
towards rival' during meeting.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 28/09/2026
Your 'bonus moment of doom' for today ~ Sign it! "Climate change, biodiversity loss, land and freshwater degradation, pollution, and unsustainable production and consumption are destabilizing the Earth system that supports all life." docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 27/09/2026
Breaking News! Code: FUBAR!!! The preliminary Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature for September 25th was 29.822°C. This breaks the previous highest temperature ever recorded in the region of 29.815°C, set on November 17th, 2015. The Climate 8-ball is exiting, stage right.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 22/09/2026
Continuing its voyage into uncharted waters, the latest preliminary Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly is now at a record 3.08°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. Models expect the Nino 3.4 anomaly to continue rising into at least mid-November. Then there will be dragons.
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Steve Rose @steverose7.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
This is one of the longest, hardest, most worthwhile pieces I’ve ever written. The story of a pollution incident in rural Sussex that’s Britain in microcosm - polluted rivers, dumping on farmland, govt agencies doing nothing. But also plans for a better way… www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
‘The eels were climbing out of the water to die’: why did every fish in this idyllic lake perish overnight?
Furnace Brook in East Sussex was home to carp, tench, bream, roach and trout – and 15 trailer-loads had to be buried. The mystery led to a neighbouring farm, and a story of waste, pollution and dirty ...
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Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf @rahmstorf.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
For everyone who doesn’t know what a wet bulb temperature means for them…
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Jon Cooper @joncooper-us.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
The shit is about to hit the fan.
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
I resigned from ExxonMobil today. I spent the last three years doing fossil fuel extraction research at both BP and ExxonMobil. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing to maximize extraction while the window to act closes, and gambling with our lives. More below.
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Simon Lee @simonleewx.com · 10/09/2026
8 years ago, I tweeted side-by-side maps from NASA GISS showing global temperatures in 1976 and 2018 – both hot summers in the UK. It subsequently went viral and was printed in the Daily Mail! The 2026 version is stark. Two locally extreme summers separated by 50 years of global climate change.
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Yale Environment 360 @yalee360.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Fueled by warming and a strengthening El Niño, record-setting marine heat waves are gripping oceans worldwide and playing havoc with sea life. Mounting evidence from recent events suggests the damage could be severe and long-lasting, both onshore and off.
e360.yale.edu
A Surge of Marine Heat Waves Threatens to Scramble Ocean Life
Fueled by climate change and a strengthening El Niño, record-setting marine heat waves are gripping oceans worldwide and playing havoc with sea life. Mounting evidence from recent events suggests the damage could be severe and long-lasting, both onshore and off.
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UN Environment Programme @unep.org · 02/09/2026
Global warming is set to cross 1.5°C, pushing climate risks and impacts to increasingly dangerous heights, a new UNEP report warns.   Predicted impacts include extreme weather and threats to human health and economies.
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Helen Czerski @helenczerski.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
What is Andy Burnham going to do about the many big climate/environment decisions in his inbox? On this week’s Rare Earth @tomheap.bsky.social and I take a look, with the help of a stellar panel. It’s easy to list the problems, but what’s his solution? Available now: www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...
Helen Czerski, Michael Jacobs, Ed Conway, Tom Heap and Corinne Le Quéré stand in front of a Rare Earth logo.
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Yale Environment 360 @yalee360.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
For decades, weak regulations on petrochemical plants offered little protection to communities nearby. A Biden-era rule promised change, but under Trump, the EPA has granted exemptions to scores of polluting facilities and is working to rewrite the rule.
e360.yale.edu
A Hard-Won Rule to Cut Chemical Plant Pollution Is Being Unraveled
In 2024, the Biden administration enacted wide-ranging regulations to protect communities near petrochemical plants from air toxics. The Trump administration has since granted exemptions to scores of polluting facilities and is working to rewrite the long-awaited rule.
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Simon Lee @simonleewx.com · 26/08/2026
Summer 2026 is closing out with yet more of the Greenland High regime simonleewx.com/ecmwf_north_... This is consistent with the increased frequency and persistence of this regime in summer doi.org/10.1029/2025... although the anticyclone this year has often been slightly further west than typical.
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Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf @rahmstorf.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Record hot world ocean 😟
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James Hansen @drjamesehansen.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
The El Nino is off the charts. Can people see the real issue and accept the implications? We may be getting closer. See the Bigger Problem – mailchi.mp/caa/super-du... Also available on Substack: jimehansen.substack.com/p/super-dupe...
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Robert McSweeney @rtmcswee.carbonbrief.org · 19/08/2026
As El Niño is going to be in the news A LOT over the coming months, we felt it was time for a new @CarbonBrief explainer. And I think it's fair to say that the maps and figures in this look amazing ⬇️
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Gareth Dennis @garethdennis.uk · 19/08/2026
This is the most important picture from the RAIB bulletin... It's a lateral kink that likely snapped into a buckle under the rear part of the train, but given discussion by the RAIB over embankment condition, the specific trigger remains unknown. Still plenty that's now confirmed though.
a rear facing view up the tracks with a severe kink on the right hand track, over the top of an underbridge
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 14/08/2026
Earlier in the summer I presented a figure showing how a comparable weather event to the summer of 1976 would be experienced in a warmer current climate. It would be 3-4°C hotter, with London hitting 38°C. Yesterday, that is exactly what happened.
Weather of 1976, and a version for the current climate
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Prof Richard Betts @richardabetts.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Nope, it’s the weeks of hot, dry weather made more severe by global heating due to fossil fuel burning that has increased the risk of wildfires. The landscape is so dry that any ignition can start a fire that becomes uncontrollable. Fields of crops and grasses are not “rewilded” but have burned
Front page of the Daily Mail newspaper “eclipse special” with headline “Rewilding link to record fires”, beneath a photograph of people watching the near-total eclipse of the sun with the title “Britain finally gets a break from the sun (for a few minutes!)”
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Met Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 13/08/2026
Temperatures provisionally reached 38.1°C at Kew Gardens, making it the hottest day of the year so far. This is the second time this year we have reached 38°C. The only other time this has happened twice in one year was in 2022. It also makes it the 5th hottest day on record.
A map showing 38.1°C recorded at Kew Gardens. This makes it the hottest day of the year so far.
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Met Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 10/08/2026
The BAMS State of the Climate report for 2025, published today, shows that the global climate set several new records, including atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, the loss of glacial ice from mountain regions, and the dryness of global soils. Read more ⬇️ buff.ly/tkbuQdS
Met Office news release graphic showing close-up cracked, drought-stricken earth. Text reads: “News Release, 10 August 2026. Rising greenhouse gas concentrations lead to ice loss and drying soils.” The Met Office logo appears in the top left corner.
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Met Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 09/08/2026
Unprecedented heat has affected much of Europe this summer and this week will be no exception🌡️ Yet another spell of extremely hot weather is set to spread north across much of the UK with temperatures reaching the mid 30s Celsius in places📈🌍
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Met Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 08/08/2026
As has been the case throughout this summer, heat is once again poised to surge north into parts of the UK through the coming week🌡️ Temperatures are currently expected to peak in the mid 30s Celsius for some on Wednesday and Thursday 📈🌍
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 05/08/2026
The rise in Niño 3.4 region sea surface temperatures over the past few weeks has been nothing short of astonishing. We are now hotter than any days during the 1997/1998 super El Niño event, and we are still many months from the peak.
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Simon Lee @simonleewx.com · 03/08/2026
Indeed — it’s not just about getting to net zero, but getting to net zero as soon as possible. I’ve found this is often a point where people finally realise the sheer urgency of addressing climate change. simonleewx.com/2026/06/24/n...
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Royal Meteorological Society @rmets.org · 03/08/2026
Why doesn’t 30°C always feel like 30°C? It might feel pleasantly warm in a light breeze one day, but on a different day the same temperature can feel oppressive, sticky and exhausting. That’s because air temperature doesn’t tell the whole story. Read more: www.rmets.org/metmatters/h...
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John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch.ft.com · 31/07/2026
New from me: Until recently, the gap between comfortably-off and just-getting-started could plausibly be crossed in a decade or two of hard work. Growth in asset prices means that’s no longer true: even a lifetime of striving doesn’t offer a realistic prospect of feeling you’ve “made it”.
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Climate Change Committee @thecccuk.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
💧 Drought has been declared across parts of the UK. In our A Well-Adapted UK report, the Committee set out recommendations for government to help avoid future water shortages. 🎥 CEO Emma Pinchbeck explains. 🔗 Read the report: www.theccc.org.uk/publication/...
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Adam Schwarz @adamjschwarz.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
When the story of why humanity didn't stop climate change is written, it will feature front pages like this. Even as the skies blacken with climate change-induced wildfires, right wing media continue their relentless crusade against measures to tackle it.
The Times: Net zero risks blackouts. Below a photo of French wildfires.
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Met Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 15/07/2026
Climate change is shifting the geography of our weather. “Think of this warming as moving north and uphill,” says Mike Kendon “with areas like the Vale of York and Lancashire now having similar annual temperatures to Greater London previously in 1961-1990.” Read the report👉 10.1002/joc.70470 🧵3/
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Climate Change Committee @thecccuk.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
The government has announced it will be planning for a minimum of 2°C of warming by 2050 and committed to setting stronger, measurable objectives for climate adaptation. The need for action could not be more urgent. ⚠️ Read our full response: www.theccc.org.uk/2026/07/13/r...
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Simon Lee @simonleewx.com · 10/07/2026
In the 20th century, there were many years where the temperature never exceeded 30°C *anywhere* in the UK. In 1974, the highest temperature was a mere 28.0°C, which really underscores how extreme 1976 was for the time. That climate no longer exists.
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 04/07/2026
Hotter and hotter and hotter www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
New records set in many European countries
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Simon Lee @simonleewx.com · 27/06/2026
Today’s GFS 18Z for 11 July showing max temperatures in England reaching 41°C Not to be taken as a deterministic forecast. However, this suggests that yet more extreme heat is possible in the next few weeks, which is made more likely and intense by climate change driven by burning fossil fuels.
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Met Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 25/06/2026
⚠️ We've issued a red warning for extreme heat in parts of the UK tomorrow. It's the first time we've had three consecutive days of red weather warnings for extreme heat in the UK 🌡️ Read our news release ⤵️ bit.ly/4agASz5
Graphic showing orange sunlight with clouds partially visible. Text reads: red warning for extreme heat issued for record third consecutive day.
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Simon Lee @simonleewx.com · 24/06/2026
It’s not just about getting to net zero, but getting to net zero as soon as possible. simonleewx.com/2026/06/24/n...
simonleewx.com
Notes from a hot island
Fifty years on from the infamous 1976 heatwave, the UK looks set to experience its hottest June day on record – exceeding the maximum of 35.6°C set on 28 June 1976. Extreme summertime heat has quic…
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Leo Hickman @leohickman.carbonbrief.org · 24/06/2026
++BREAKING++ Leading climate scientists in the UK have written to senior editors in broadcast media - and OFCOM and IPSO: "To express our concern about recent media coverage of extreme weather, climate change and net-zero and to urge you…to inform public audiences of the scientific links"
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Helen Czerski @helenczerski.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Grim timing yesterday as news of the Met Office Red alert flashed up on phones right in the middle of a big event about new Met Office forecasts for June 2056, showing potential peak temperatures of 45C in England. Stopping the CO2 emissions driving this is essential, but we also need to prepare.
View from the back of the audience shoeing a huge weather map with the forecast for June 2056, and people standing on stage in front of it.
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 22/06/2026
When looking at the full global picture it becomes obvious that we are now living in a much changed climate. In summer 1976, north-west Europe was a lonely hot spot in a sea of cooler temperatures. In summer 2025, the world is bright red. The climate is unrecognisable compared to 50 years ago.
Average summer temperature anomaly in 1976Average summer temperature anomaly in 2025
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Simon Lee @simonleewx.com · 20/06/2026
Met Office forecasting 39°C for Tuesday — temperatures not seen in the UK outside of July 2022
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Simon Lee @simonleewx.com · 20/06/2026
The nighttime lows in this forecast are the average *highs*
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Reading Uni Weather @ruweather.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
Climate stripes for Reading on this #ShowYourStripes day.
Warming temperature stripes for Reading, stretching from light to dark blue on the left to light to dark red on the right symbolising a dramatic warming trend over the last century or so.
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