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Nick O'Donovan

@nickod.bsky.social
1.8K followers 490 following 94 posts

Political scientist and occasional policy wonk, interested in big tech, the digital economy, taxation and inequality. Author of Pursuing the Knowledge Economy: www.agendapub.com/page/detail/pursu… @DrNickOD

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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
"There is and can be no single ex ante identifiable message, so we should think carefully about the institutional arrangements for message selection" would have been preferable to "don't shoot the messenger".
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Nick Garland @npjgarland.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Here, Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social weighs up Burnham and Healey's choices for a fiscal reset: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Unknown Pressures: Resetting Fiscal Policy for Uncertain Times
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Nick Garland @npjgarland.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Everything in the new issue of the relaunched @ippr.org Progressive Review is now FREE TO READ here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/toc/10.1...
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Lukas Bogner @lbogner.eurosky.social · 23/09/2026
New Paper out in Socio-Economic Review! Part of a coming special issue on the socio-economics of loss and decline. About the 4D chess of using blended finance for the coal exit in the Global South. Read it here: doi.org/10.1093/ser/... (or ask me for a copy if you don't have access)!)
 The spectre of de-assetization: legal infrastructures and fragile fixes in fossil decommissioning - Lukas Bogner. Abstract: Efforts to decommission coal power plants in the Global South are constrained by the legal infrastructures that create and protect them as assets. This article examines the Asian Development Bank’s Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM) as a case of managing these constraints via a series of increasingly complex and fragile spatio-temporal fixes: First, power purchase agreements and investment treaties require compensation of investors at business-as-usual asset valuations; second, for lack of public funding, this compensation is to be generated via a blended finance mechanism; third, its inability to stem these costs necessitates further legal-financial engineering, including a novel guarantee mechanism and ‘coal-to-clean’ credits. The ETM and its successive fixes are haunted by the power relations inscribed in asset creation and protection in the Global South. This renders ‘de-risked’ transition finance dubious as a blueprint for fossil decommissioning and highlights the troubled nature of climate-related asset stranding in transnational, hierarchical legal space.
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Philipp Golka @pgolka.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Second paper of our SER special issue (with @vapunkt.bsky.social & @trgn.bsky.social) out just hours after the first and it's just as great - congrats Nick! 🎉 More information in the thread below ⬇️
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Weakening state and civil society institutions that governed/steered/regulated public utilities did not depoliticise those sectors, but rather ceded their political control to powerful private interests. Recreating and re-empowering such institutions could help challenge those interests today.
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
In another sense, the history of ‘stranded assets’ exposes the naivety of the policymakers who sought to insulate market provision from political control. Deregulation did not replace a messy political order with a harmonious economic order: it merely replaced one political economy with another.
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Proponents of deregulation argued that, once liberalised energy markets are in place, market forces will *already* compensate investors for the political and regulatory downside risks they bear. The case for compensating owners of fossil fuel assets again, after these risks crystallise, is weak.
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
If this compensatory logic is applied to fossil fuel assets today, however, it risks turning the ‘polluter pays principle’ on its head. But the original ‘stranding’ debates also teach us that stranding was only ever supposed to be a temporary phenomenon.
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The language of ‘stranding’ was introduced to describe these novel losses – and private investors in the pre-deregulation public utilities sought (and often won) compensation for the stranded costs of their stranded investments.
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
That changed with deregulation, triggering political conflict over who should shoulder losses related to legacy assets: the original investors, the ratepayers, the government, the still-regulated network providers or businesses operating in newly competitive markets.
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Prior to deregulation, US public utilities such as telecoms and electricity were often privately owned/funded, but heavily regulated – meaning that investors could almost always recover their capital costs through regulated fees from captive ratepayers. 'Stranding' was nigh-on impossible.
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
My latest article for Socio-Economic Review - read for free here: academic.oup.com/ser/advance-... - shows that this terminology is of surprisingly recent provenance, first appearing in US deregulation debates in the 1980s.
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The concept of ‘stranded assets’ has become central to analysis of the climate crisis. Rapid decarbonisation will result in the mass devaluation of a whole host of fossil-fuel-related investments. But where did the language of stranding come from, and how has its meaning changed over time?
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Mike Cook @mtrc.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
New Post: Why I Love AI Next month it'll be twenty years since I went to university, learned to program, and studied AI. I wrote about why I loved it, why I still love it, and why, unfortunately, it no longer exists. www.possibilityspace.org/blog/posts/i...
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Day 1: "There is a light that never goes out" due to reductions in electricity bills Day 2: "Get on the bus and cause no fuss, get a grip on yourself, it don't cost much" more than £1.99 Day 3: "Cigarettes and alcohol" (albeit cigarettes only in designated outdoor smoking areas)
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Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Good provocation from @carlbfrey.bsky.social here - how much will AI mean people move to greater self service? As was shown by eg consumers scanning their own groceries, this phenomenon is hard for economic statistics to capture www.ft.com/content/47f4...
This shift has broader macroeconomic implications. When work shifts to the consumer, it vanishes from the economy that statisticians measure. A company that replaces a billing department with a chatbot interface records lower costs and higher output per worker. The national accounts register a productivity gain. But the hours that patients spend decoding their own tests appear nowhere - not in labour statistics, not in GDP. As AI self-service expands into professional domains, this blind spot will grow.
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
In case you're wondering, I published it pseudonymously as I was working for a private sector firm at the time, who wanted to pre-approve any op-eds- so I'm somewhat belatedly taking responsibility for it now. It wasn't behind a paywall back then, either, so DM me if you want a copy! [3/3]
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Probably the most prescient thing I’ve ever written (even a stopped clock…) It feels like UK politics today is still hamstrung by stark differences in exposure to/experience of collective economic outcomes- with some insulated from collective failures, others shut-out from collective success.[2/3]
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
10 years ago, I wrote an article about the upcoming Brexit referendum. It argued that the Remain campaign’s warnings weren't cutting through, as too many UK citizens felt disconnected from the country’s aggregate economic performance. [1/3] www.newstatesman.com/business/eco...
newstatesman.com
Why “it’s the economy, stupid“ may not be enough to see Remain over the line
The benefits of growth are more unfairly distributed than ever, says Neil James.
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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
This is not a reasoned political response. Labour has spent two years making all the voting groups who backed the Greens feel unwelcome and unheard, and now attacks them for daring to back someone else. They believe Labour isn’t listening and Starmer seems determined to prove them right
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Simon Hix @simonhix.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
This is from Keir Starmer’s letter to Labour MPs today. This sort of stuff is shockingly partisan and nasty. It will only backfire with voters who switched to Green or are thinking of switching.
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
I am trying not to read anything too sinister into the fact that, when I searched for "money as a social contract", the concept of "society" induced a nervous breakdown in Google's AI bot, which began randomly yelling "YouTube" at me in response.
Google search results AI Overview: Money is fundamentally a social contract, functioning as a shared agreement among people to trust in and accept a medium—like fiat currency or digital assets—as a store of value and method of exchange. It represents a, YouTube social bond,, YouTube that enables, YouTube cooperation, YouTube and acts as a, YouTube "claim upon society," YouTube rather than possessing, YouTube intrinsic, YouTube value.
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
One point worth emphasising is that, by then, tax rises may not be needed to comply with UK fiscal rules, which specify a 3-year *rolling* target (tho may be needed to placate bond markets). As the OBR noted back in 2021, the problem with such rules is 'the date for meeting them never arrives' [2/2]
While rolling targets avoid many of these issues, the fact that the date for meeting them
never arrives means that the fiscal position can progressively deteriorate. History tells us that
Chancellors tend to take advantage, over successive Budgets, of the additional year to meet
their targets by loosening fiscal policy, while planning a sufficiently large fiscal tightening to
hit the target in the target year. Chart 4.4 shows the example of the Coalition’s rolling
structural current balance target (a five-year target from 2010 to 2014, then a three-year
target until 2015), which yielded no structural current surpluses in outturn.
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
Lots of good commentary in the FT from @stephenkb.bsky.social and others questioning whether the delayed fiscal consolidation in yesterday's Budget will ever be delivered, given these tax rises are due to kick in from 2028 with an election looming... [1/2] on.ft.com/3LVEeOK
on.ft.com
Rachel Reeves’ Budget fails her own 3 claims
Chancellor’s actions not enough to satisfy pledges on cost of living, debt and NHS
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 31/08/2025
There's an important debate to be had on the wisdom of simultaneously increasing employer NICs, the minimum wage and employment rights. The jobs market does look weaker. But an alternative reading of this chart is that employment has just continued on its pre-election trend?
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Diane Coyle @dianecoyle1859.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
This kind of descriptive analysis is v interesting- well worth a read
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
What makes recent technological developments so devastating is not their novelty, but rather that the political economy of developed democracies is already set up to ensure the proceeds of growth are not widely shared. You can download the full article for free here: doi.org/10.1093/ser/... [5/5]
doi.org
Prosperity and inequality in mature knowledge economies
Abstract. In the 1990s, policymakers in affluent democracies viewed the ‘knowledge economy’ as a solution to economic stagnation and social exclusion. Yet,
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
This is not (just) a story about generative AI displacing new graduates: it is a story about how knowledge work has been transformed and squeezed by successive technological advances, such as cloud computing and the platformisation of the digital economy. [4/5]
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
Moreover, even those sectors that were supposed to epitomise the new high-skill, high-wage paradigm in which 'what you earn depends on what you learn' have in fact become increasingly capital-intensive over time, denying skilled workers a higher share of the proceeds of growth. [3/5]
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
My new article, free to read in the Socio-Economic Review, explores productivity and inequality trends in advanced democracies from 1995 through to the eve of the COVID-19 pandemic. It exposes how the knowledge economy nowhere lived up to its promise of inclusive growth. [2/5]
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
***New article announcement!*** Prosperity and inequality in mature knowledge economies Barely a week goes by without new reports of generative AI displacing high-skilled knowledge work. But this is part of a trend stretching back more than 20 years. [1/5]
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
Will AI eliminate high-skilled, high-paid knowledge work? If the recent past is anything to go by, yes. My new article explores how knowledge work has already become more capital-intensive since the early 2000s, undermining hopes of inclusive prosperity: doi.org/10.1093/ser/...
doi.org
Prosperity and inequality in mature knowledge economies
Abstract. In the 1990s, policymakers in affluent democracies viewed the ‘knowledge economy’ as a solution to economic stagnation and social exclusion. Yet,
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
A reminder of the impermanence of currency hierarchies from the US Commercial and Financial Chronicle, 1 December 1877: 'in the great exchange markets of the world... our paper is not current and never will be.'
The South was never in spite of all her troubles in a position of such genuine promise as now She has forced to learn economies in production she can grow cotton now profitably at a low price although she used to get poor on it at a high one she has also learned to grow a large crop the labor question is in great measure solved on her soil and her position in the world's markets was never so favorable as now Her great staples are the equivalent of gold in a peculiar sense the governing price of cotton to day is a gold one in the great exchange markets of the world where our paper is not current and never will be The dream of all Southern publicists has always been for direct commercial relations with England Perhaps this is more than a dream perhaps not but what can be more foolish than to insist upon spurning and excluding the currency of mankind in order to cling to the non exportable paper which is the worst foe the country has
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Economics Observatory @econ-observatory.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
💰One-off wealth taxes: what can we learn from history? @nickod.bsky.social TODAY on the Economics Observatory👇
buff.ly
One-off wealth taxes: what can we learn from history? - Economics Observatory
In the wake of crises that have caused national debts to grow rapidly beyond ‘normal’ levels, the idea of drawing on private wealth in order to pay down those debts has sometimes gained currency.
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Philipp Golka @pgolka.bsky.social · 15/10/2024
The #climate crisis leads to unprecedented losses & damages to real and financial #assets. But the dynamics and consequences of asset stranding are only poorly understood. If you want to change this, please join @trgn.bsky.social, @vapunkt.bsky.social & me for our #SASE2025 Mini-Conference (1/2)
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 19/05/2025
Really looking forward to this online seminar with Quinn Slobodian, author of Crack-Up Capitalism and Hayek's Bastards, 5pm BST on Weds 4th June. It promises to be a fascinating discussion of neoliberalism and its discontents. The link to sign up (for free!) is: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/professor-...
eventbrite.co.uk
Professor Quinn Slobodian (Boston University) - Title TBA
TBA
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
Excellent (if depressing) article from the FT. Fixating on skills supply in the "knowledge economy", without considering other bottlenecks (housing/transport, access to capital, access to intellectual property/data etc), is tantamount to pumping air into a punctured tyre. www.ft.com/content/cd13...
ft.com
Is the UK failing its graduates?
Young people are bearing the brunt of a long-term slowdown in the labour market, data shows
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Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
The lesson of Donald Trump’s business career would seem to be, to adapt Keynes, that Donald Trump can remain irrational longer than Donald Trump can remain solvent.
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Valentina Ausserladscheider @vapunkt.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
📢 Next week is our first seminar of the @psabcpe.bsky.social online series with fantastic @ankehassel.bsky.social talking about Growth Strategies And Welfare Reforms: How Nations Cope With Economic Transitions💡Please sign up 💻 & share widely ‼️
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
The European Union remains a funny animal. Outside observers: rich place, lots of industry, lower debt levels than US/China. Should be able to rearm quickly and cheaply if they coordinate decision-making. Leaders on the inside: I don’t trust my neighbour so let’s bicker while the house burns down.
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 12/02/2025
"Man rejects means, demands end."
Extract from the guardian website, reading Trump says more tariffs coming and calls for lower interest rates"
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Nick Garland @npjgarland.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
This was an excellent piece by @craigpberry.bsky.social & @nickod.bsky.social on the relationship between equality and innovation, busting the idea that the two need be in tension: journals.lwbooks.co.uk/renewal/vol-...
journals.lwbooks.co.uk
The productivist welfare state: how tackling inequality can unleash innovation - Lawrence Wishart
In UK welfare debates, equality and economic growth are often treated as opposites: one inevitably comes at the expense of the o
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Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
Lost much of the afternoon to this. It’s excellent.
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 29/01/2025
If you're interested in DeepSeek and the competitive landscape around generative AI, you might find this article from a while back interesting: journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.... (Feeling particularly smug about this passage this week...)
By contrast, with second-order network effects, there could come a point when it becomes difficult to improve the quality of connection between any given individual and the things to which they might be connected (products in online retail, webpages in a search engine, diagnoses in a diagnostics app, responses to a prompt in generative AI). Beyond a certain level, additional data may cease to affect results, instead serving primarily to confirm matches. This means that incumbency advantages associated with second-order network effects do not always grow indefinitely. The risk of markets tipping irrevocably on this basis alone is thus limited, and there may be less need for privacy-invading and/or innovation-curtailing interventions to preserve competition. Conceivably, multiple organisations could acquire the number of users necessary to provide an adequate quality of matches.
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Jérôme Deyris @jdeyris.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
📊 Last week, we released our new central bank speeches database, which almost doubles the coverage of the @BIS_org database. We also released a tool to facilitate research on central bank communication: meet the #CBSpeeches explorer! Four tools for the price of one (=free!)
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George Dibb @georgedibb.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
Really recommend this excellent rebuttal to the 'Foundations' essay It shouldn't need pointing out but you really can't wonder at the ability of France, South Korea, or post-WW2 Britain at building things *and* argue that the state simply can't do things open.substack.com/pub/energyne...
open.substack.com
Without Foundation
A critique of the essay Foundations by Bowman, Southwood and Hughes
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Alisa Bokulich @alisabokulich.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
💯 As I tell my students, having AI write your philosophy paper is like sending a robot to the gym for you and expecting to reap the health benefits.
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Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
Really interesting which parties have sharp variations in support across ages groups and which don't (Lib Dems relatively cross-generational in appeal; Reform cross-generational among men only).
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