Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 24/09/2026"There is and can be no single ex ante identifiable message, so we should think carefully about the institutional arrangements for message selection" would have been preferable to "don't shoot the messenger". 000
Reposted by Nick O'DonovanNick Garland @npjgarland.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Here, Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social weighs up Burnham and Healey's choices for a fiscal reset: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....onlinelibrary.wiley.comUnknown Pressures: Resetting Fiscal Policy for Uncertain Times 101
Reposted by Nick O'DonovanNick Garland @npjgarland.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Everything in the new issue of the relaunched @ippr.org Progressive Review is now FREE TO READ here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/toc/10.1... 11910
Reposted by Nick O'DonovanLukas Bogner @lbogner.eurosky.social · 23/09/2026New Paper out in Socio-Economic Review! Part of a coming special issue on the socio-economics of loss and decline. About the 4D chess of using blended finance for the coal exit in the Global South. Read it here: doi.org/10.1093/ser/... (or ask me for a copy if you don't have access)!) 21510
Reposted by Nick O'DonovanPhilipp Golka @pgolka.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Second paper of our SER special issue (with @vapunkt.bsky.social & @trgn.bsky.social) out just hours after the first and it's just as great - congrats Nick! 🎉 More information in the thread below ⬇️ 044
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Weakening state and civil society institutions that governed/steered/regulated public utilities did not depoliticise those sectors, but rather ceded their political control to powerful private interests. Recreating and re-empowering such institutions could help challenge those interests today. 010
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 23/09/2026In another sense, the history of ‘stranded assets’ exposes the naivety of the policymakers who sought to insulate market provision from political control. Deregulation did not replace a messy political order with a harmonious economic order: it merely replaced one political economy with another. 112
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Proponents of deregulation argued that, once liberalised energy markets are in place, market forces will *already* compensate investors for the political and regulatory downside risks they bear. The case for compensating owners of fossil fuel assets again, after these risks crystallise, is weak. 110
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 23/09/2026If this compensatory logic is applied to fossil fuel assets today, however, it risks turning the ‘polluter pays principle’ on its head. But the original ‘stranding’ debates also teach us that stranding was only ever supposed to be a temporary phenomenon. 110
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 23/09/2026The language of ‘stranding’ was introduced to describe these novel losses – and private investors in the pre-deregulation public utilities sought (and often won) compensation for the stranded costs of their stranded investments. 100
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 23/09/2026That changed with deregulation, triggering political conflict over who should shoulder losses related to legacy assets: the original investors, the ratepayers, the government, the still-regulated network providers or businesses operating in newly competitive markets. 100
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Prior to deregulation, US public utilities such as telecoms and electricity were often privately owned/funded, but heavily regulated – meaning that investors could almost always recover their capital costs through regulated fees from captive ratepayers. 'Stranding' was nigh-on impossible. 100
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 23/09/2026My latest article for Socio-Economic Review - read for free here: academic.oup.com/ser/advance-... - shows that this terminology is of surprisingly recent provenance, first appearing in US deregulation debates in the 1980s. 130
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 23/09/2026The concept of ‘stranded assets’ has become central to analysis of the climate crisis. Rapid decarbonisation will result in the mass devaluation of a whole host of fossil-fuel-related investments. But where did the language of stranding come from, and how has its meaning changed over time? 161
Reposted by Nick O'DonovanMike Cook @mtrc.bsky.social · 22/09/2026New Post: Why I Love AI Next month it'll be twenty years since I went to university, learned to program, and studied AI. I wrote about why I loved it, why I still love it, and why, unfortunately, it no longer exists. www.possibilityspace.org/blog/posts/i... 32559166
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 23/07/2026Day 1: "There is a light that never goes out" due to reductions in electricity bills Day 2: "Get on the bus and cause no fuss, get a grip on yourself, it don't cost much" more than £1.99 Day 3: "Cigarettes and alcohol" (albeit cigarettes only in designated outdoor smoking areas) 000
Reposted by Nick O'DonovanHetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 15/06/2026Good provocation from @carlbfrey.bsky.social here - how much will AI mean people move to greater self service? As was shown by eg consumers scanning their own groceries, this phenomenon is hard for economic statistics to capture www.ft.com/content/47f4... 23413
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 12/06/2026In case you're wondering, I published it pseudonymously as I was working for a private sector firm at the time, who wanted to pre-approve any op-eds- so I'm somewhat belatedly taking responsibility for it now. It wasn't behind a paywall back then, either, so DM me if you want a copy! [3/3] 000
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 12/06/2026Probably the most prescient thing I’ve ever written (even a stopped clock…) It feels like UK politics today is still hamstrung by stark differences in exposure to/experience of collective economic outcomes- with some insulated from collective failures, others shut-out from collective success.[2/3] 100
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 12/06/202610 years ago, I wrote an article about the upcoming Brexit referendum. It argued that the Remain campaign’s warnings weren't cutting through, as too many UK citizens felt disconnected from the country’s aggregate economic performance. [1/3] www.newstatesman.com/business/eco...newstatesman.comWhy “it’s the economy, stupid“ may not be enough to see Remain over the lineThe benefits of growth are more unfairly distributed than ever, says Neil James. 100
Reposted by Nick O'DonovanRob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 27/02/2026This is not a reasoned political response. Labour has spent two years making all the voting groups who backed the Greens feel unwelcome and unheard, and now attacks them for daring to back someone else. They believe Labour isn’t listening and Starmer seems determined to prove them right 451150317
Reposted by Nick O'DonovanSimon Hix @simonhix.bsky.social · 27/02/2026This is from Keir Starmer’s letter to Labour MPs today. This sort of stuff is shockingly partisan and nasty. It will only backfire with voters who switched to Green or are thinking of switching. 68718
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 10/02/2026I am trying not to read anything too sinister into the fact that, when I searched for "money as a social contract", the concept of "society" induced a nervous breakdown in Google's AI bot, which began randomly yelling "YouTube" at me in response. 030
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 27/11/2025One point worth emphasising is that, by then, tax rises may not be needed to comply with UK fiscal rules, which specify a 3-year *rolling* target (tho may be needed to placate bond markets). As the OBR noted back in 2021, the problem with such rules is 'the date for meeting them never arrives' [2/2] 000
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 27/11/2025Lots of good commentary in the FT from @stephenkb.bsky.social and others questioning whether the delayed fiscal consolidation in yesterday's Budget will ever be delivered, given these tax rises are due to kick in from 2028 with an election looming... [1/2] on.ft.com/3LVEeOKon.ft.comRachel Reeves’ Budget fails her own 3 claimsChancellor’s actions not enough to satisfy pledges on cost of living, debt and NHS 100
Reposted by Nick O'DonovanBen Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 31/08/2025There's an important debate to be had on the wisdom of simultaneously increasing employer NICs, the minimum wage and employment rights. The jobs market does look weaker. But an alternative reading of this chart is that employment has just continued on its pre-election trend? 2144
Reposted by Nick O'DonovanDiane Coyle @dianecoyle1859.bsky.social · 01/09/2025This kind of descriptive analysis is v interesting- well worth a read 0315
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 01/09/2025What makes recent technological developments so devastating is not their novelty, but rather that the political economy of developed democracies is already set up to ensure the proceeds of growth are not widely shared. You can download the full article for free here: doi.org/10.1093/ser/... [5/5]doi.orgProsperity and inequality in mature knowledge economiesAbstract. In the 1990s, policymakers in affluent democracies viewed the ‘knowledge economy’ as a solution to economic stagnation and social exclusion. Yet, 13212
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 01/09/2025This is not (just) a story about generative AI displacing new graduates: it is a story about how knowledge work has been transformed and squeezed by successive technological advances, such as cloud computing and the platformisation of the digital economy. [4/5] 172
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 01/09/2025Moreover, even those sectors that were supposed to epitomise the new high-skill, high-wage paradigm in which 'what you earn depends on what you learn' have in fact become increasingly capital-intensive over time, denying skilled workers a higher share of the proceeds of growth. [3/5] 152
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 01/09/2025My new article, free to read in the Socio-Economic Review, explores productivity and inequality trends in advanced democracies from 1995 through to the eve of the COVID-19 pandemic. It exposes how the knowledge economy nowhere lived up to its promise of inclusive growth. [2/5] 161
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 01/09/2025***New article announcement!*** Prosperity and inequality in mature knowledge economies Barely a week goes by without new reports of generative AI displacing high-skilled knowledge work. But this is part of a trend stretching back more than 20 years. [1/5] 1139
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 26/08/2025Will AI eliminate high-skilled, high-paid knowledge work? If the recent past is anything to go by, yes. My new article explores how knowledge work has already become more capital-intensive since the early 2000s, undermining hopes of inclusive prosperity: doi.org/10.1093/ser/...doi.orgProsperity and inequality in mature knowledge economiesAbstract. In the 1990s, policymakers in affluent democracies viewed the ‘knowledge economy’ as a solution to economic stagnation and social exclusion. Yet, 030
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 16/07/2025A reminder of the impermanence of currency hierarchies from the US Commercial and Financial Chronicle, 1 December 1877: 'in the great exchange markets of the world... our paper is not current and never will be.' 010
Reposted by Nick O'DonovanEconomics Observatory @econ-observatory.bsky.social · 07/07/2025💰One-off wealth taxes: what can we learn from history? @nickod.bsky.social TODAY on the Economics Observatory👇buff.lyOne-off wealth taxes: what can we learn from history? - Economics ObservatoryIn the wake of crises that have caused national debts to grow rapidly beyond ‘normal’ levels, the idea of drawing on private wealth in order to pay down those debts has sometimes gained currency. 012
Reposted by Nick O'DonovanPhilipp Golka @pgolka.bsky.social · 15/10/2024The #climate crisis leads to unprecedented losses & damages to real and financial #assets. But the dynamics and consequences of asset stranding are only poorly understood. If you want to change this, please join @trgn.bsky.social, @vapunkt.bsky.social & me for our #SASE2025 Mini-Conference (1/2) 21910
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 19/05/2025Really looking forward to this online seminar with Quinn Slobodian, author of Crack-Up Capitalism and Hayek's Bastards, 5pm BST on Weds 4th June. It promises to be a fascinating discussion of neoliberalism and its discontents. The link to sign up (for free!) is: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/professor-...eventbrite.co.ukProfessor Quinn Slobodian (Boston University) - Title TBATBA 010
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 13/05/2025Excellent (if depressing) article from the FT. Fixating on skills supply in the "knowledge economy", without considering other bottlenecks (housing/transport, access to capital, access to intellectual property/data etc), is tantamount to pumping air into a punctured tyre. www.ft.com/content/cd13...ft.comIs the UK failing its graduates?Young people are bearing the brunt of a long-term slowdown in the labour market, data shows 093
Reposted by Nick O'DonovanDuncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 09/04/2025The lesson of Donald Trump’s business career would seem to be, to adapt Keynes, that Donald Trump can remain irrational longer than Donald Trump can remain solvent. 17026
Reposted by Nick O'DonovanValentina Ausserladscheider @vapunkt.bsky.social · 10/03/2025📢 Next week is our first seminar of the @psabcpe.bsky.social online series with fantastic @ankehassel.bsky.social talking about Growth Strategies And Welfare Reforms: How Nations Cope With Economic Transitions💡Please sign up 💻 & share widely ‼️ 12213
Reposted by Nick O'DonovanSander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 03/03/2025The European Union remains a funny animal. Outside observers: rich place, lots of industry, lower debt levels than US/China. Should be able to rearm quickly and cheaply if they coordinate decision-making. Leaders on the inside: I don’t trust my neighbour so let’s bicker while the house burns down. 14417109
Reposted by Nick O'DonovanNick Garland @npjgarland.bsky.social · 07/02/2025This was an excellent piece by @craigpberry.bsky.social & @nickod.bsky.social on the relationship between equality and innovation, busting the idea that the two need be in tension: journals.lwbooks.co.uk/renewal/vol-...journals.lwbooks.co.ukThe productivist welfare state: how tackling inequality can unleash innovation - Lawrence WishartIn UK welfare debates, equality and economic growth are often treated as opposites: one inevitably comes at the expense of the o 141
Reposted by Nick O'DonovanDuncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 05/02/2025Lost much of the afternoon to this. It’s excellent. 0155
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 29/01/2025If you're interested in DeepSeek and the competitive landscape around generative AI, you might find this article from a while back interesting: journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.... (Feeling particularly smug about this passage this week...) 030
Reposted by Nick O'DonovanJérôme Deyris @jdeyris.bsky.social · 27/01/2025📊 Last week, we released our new central bank speeches database, which almost doubles the coverage of the @BIS_org database. We also released a tool to facilitate research on central bank communication: meet the #CBSpeeches explorer! Four tools for the price of one (=free!) 14419
Reposted by Nick O'DonovanGeorge Dibb @georgedibb.bsky.social · 18/12/2024Really recommend this excellent rebuttal to the 'Foundations' essay It shouldn't need pointing out but you really can't wonder at the ability of France, South Korea, or post-WW2 Britain at building things *and* argue that the state simply can't do things open.substack.com/pub/energyne...open.substack.comWithout FoundationA critique of the essay Foundations by Bowman, Southwood and Hughes 1112
Reposted by Nick O'DonovanAlisa Bokulich @alisabokulich.bsky.social · 12/12/2024💯 As I tell my students, having AI write your philosophy paper is like sending a robot to the gym for you and expecting to reap the health benefits. 21932240
Nick O'Donovan @nickod.bsky.social · 12/12/2024Really interesting which parties have sharp variations in support across ages groups and which don't (Lib Dems relatively cross-generational in appeal; Reform cross-generational among men only). 030