Sign in

Nick Lutsko

@nick-lutsko.bsky.social
160 followers 206 following 122 posts

Associate Professor of Climate Science at Scripps Institution of Oceanography/UCSD. More at: www.sio-climatephysics.com and notesonclimate.substack.com

PostsRepliesMedia
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I agree that trust comes from verification, in the absence of which we need auditable steps, but the rest is somewhat one-sided (and unfair to end-to-end ML models). CliMA is set up to address one source of model uncertainty. Bjorn Stevens could write a similar essay about…
111
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Wrote a short post on why Google's WeatherNext forecasting models are so good. TLDR: it's probably not the architecture, but how they train their models (though there's an interesting analogy to singular vectors in what they're doing) notesonclimate.substack.com/p/why-are-go...
notesonclimate.substack.com
Why are Google’s WeatherNext Models So Good?
Going from architecture to training
120
Reposted by Nick Lutsko
Casey Ivanovich @ccivanovich.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Feel like heatwaves started early this year? Or like they're dragging on later than ever? Our new @aguadvances.bsky.social paper shows that extreme heat is no longer limited to summer and is now creeping into the shoulder seasons -- but unevenly so. (1/6) doi.org/10.1029/2026...
doi.org
Extreme Dry and Humid Heat Seasons Are Changing Asymmetrically
Extreme dry and humid heat events show distinct seasonality often not aligned with meteorological summer, even in the tropics Extreme heat seasons have expanded since the 1980s over about half of...
1389
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
This is an interesting test case. The ML ensembles are much more confident in the W track than the physical ensembles, which are bimodal. Either they know something about the driving synoptic conditions, their perturbations aren’t sampling the bifurcation or they’re reverting to climatology
030
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Wrote about the atmospheric physics behind the FAA's proposal to allow "boomless" supersonic flight. notesonclimate.substack.com/p/boomless-s... This is a cool idea, though I'm skeptical of it working in practice
notesonclimate.substack.com
“Boomless” Supersonic Flight and the Mach Cut-off
The speed of sound, Snell’s Law and the FAA
020
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
It’s great to see Tim in the economist, but this is a strange piece. He seems to say we aren’t sure whether dynamics will be affected by climate change, but the question is how not if. Writing “persistent anticyclone” rather than just calling it a block is also confusing, since this could refer to…
120
Reposted by Nick Lutsko
Mike Byrne @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Counterintuitively, mixing of dry air into convecting plumes amplifies moist heat extremes. This "entrainment" effect strengthens as climate warms and dries, increasing human heat stress. Details in our new paper, led by @roshanjha.bsky.social: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
075
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Very much inspired by Mike’s work, Anthony showed the very hottest temperatures warm 30-40% faster than the tropical mean — we should start seeing global max temperature records broken pretty soon Interestingly, the locations of the warmest temperatures seems quite stable…
130
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
I appreciate the effort to explain climate dynamics to a broad audience, but I find these explainers on Europe’s fast warming a little misleading. They tend to mix generic reasons why land warms faster than the global mean (land/ocean contrast, sea ice loss)…
100
Reposted by Nick Lutsko
Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
High-resolution simulations reveal positive global warming feedback from Pacific low clouds www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
High-resolution simulations reveal positive global warming feedback from Pacific low clouds
High-resolution simulations reveal that direct carbon dioxide effects nonlinearly amplify positive low-cloud feedbacks.
22512
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
This is an interesting pattern. The surface temp anomalies look wave 4-ish, but a trapped k=4 wave is unlikely in NH summer (jet is too weak). The 500hPa heights and SLP are messier, so the temp pattern is probably a summer stationary wave pattern that was sharpened by surface feedbacks
110
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Following up on @zekehausfather.com post on early 20thC warming, I was surprised how large methane‘s contribution was. Turns out it was swamped after WW2 by faster CO2 emission growth even though CH4 forcing is stronger molecule-for-molecule notesonclimate.substack.com/p/methane-ma...
notesonclimate.substack.com
Methane Mattered More in the Early 20th Century
Zeke Hausfather had an interesting post recently at The Climate Brink on what drove early 20th Century warming, suggesting it was a roughly equal mix of human activity, natural forcings (volcanoes) an...
1164
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Wrote about the ways people have implemented physical constraints in ML-driven weather forecast systems: notesonclimate.substack.com/p/physical-c... Physics still matters! But there are also a lot of open questions, and, as an outsider, I think this would benefit from a more systematic approach
notesonclimate.substack.com
071
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
The WH has a new EO encouraging the FAA to allow supersonic flight over the US if the plane doesn't create a sonic boom that reaches the ground: www.faa.gov/newsroom/ARM... This actually relies on a fun bit of atmospheric physics, which also shows why this might not be a great idea in practice 🧵
faa.gov
100
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Wrote a summary of Yue Xu‘s recent surface forcing paper notesonclimate.substack.com/p/a-spectral... Our simple model can be combined with similar TOA models to understand the atmospheric forcing, which has some interesting implications for precip changes under solar geo and paleoclimate scenarios
notesonclimate.substack.com
A Spectral Model of CO2's Surface Forcing
Summary of Yue et al. (2026)
020
Reposted by Nick Lutsko
Shiv Priyam Raghuraman @rshivpriyam.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
We are hiring a postdoc to research Earth's Energy Imbalance using Earth system model simulations and satellite observations. I appreciate anyone spreading the word! docs.google.com/document/d/1...
docs.google.com
Postdoctoral Research Associate Position in Earth’s Energy Imbalance
Postdoctoral Research Associate Position in Earth’s Energy Imbalance Department of Climate, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign The Department of Climate, Mete...
12821
Reposted by Nick Lutsko
elizabethginexi.bsky.social @elizabethginexi.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Summary of Key Changes in OMB’s Proposed Federal Financial Assistance Rule. Russell Vought is going destroy American Science. elizabethginexi.substack.com/p/summary-of...
elizabethginexi.substack.com
Summary of Key Changes in OMB’s Proposed Federal Financial Assistance Rule
Russell Vought is going destroy American Science
1251397827
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
The RCP8.5 story just seems like good scientific process: 1. we explored a wide scenario space when future warming (emissions & climate sensitivity) was uncertain 2. we focused on high-end cases because damages are nonlinear/tail risks 3. we updated to a narrower scenario space as more data come in
0265
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
l’m becoming more sympathetic to Stardust. Past the hype, they’ve raised substantial funding to investigate a promising candidate material for SAI and are now releasing papers. This wouldn’t be unusual in pharma www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/c...
nytimes.com
Can Some Very Tiny Particles Cool the Planet? One Tech Company Says Yes.
100
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
This is nice
020
Reposted by Nick Lutsko
American Meteorological Society @ametsoc.org · 05/05/2026
From curiosity about nature to leading next-gen climate models, Tapio Schneider, 2026 AMS Jule Charney Medal winner, reflects on his work and the future of climate science. Discover the conversation and what lies ahead for climate science: bit.ly/4whEcn4
headlines.ametsoc.org
Award Spotlight: A Conversation with Tapio Schneider
Tapio Schneider is the 2026 recipient of the Jule Charney Medal, recognized “for pioneering research on atmospheric dynamics and climate change and leadership in innovative climate model development.”...
0172
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
This crescent Earth photo from Artemis shows a nice cross section through the atmosphere, with blue edges where the light passes through the clear upper atmosphere and is Rayleigh scattered and a white middle where the light passes through clouds and aerosols in the lower atmosphere
000
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Glad to see someone finally test QRWA in an idealized setting. It’s always felt like a big jump to go from the linearized 2D vorticity equation (w/many assumptions) to the real atmosphere, where there are many confounding factors
010
Reposted by Nick Lutsko
Shiv Priyam Raghuraman @rshivpriyam.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
New paper on cloud feedbacks out! urldefense.com/v3/__https:/... Should an enhanced East Pacific warming pattern manifest at equilibrium, our results suggest that CESM2’s high climate sensitivity may be realized.
urldefense.com
Cloud feedback overestimated in coupled CESM2 simulations relative to AMIP simulations and satellite observations: importance of the pattern effect and implications for climate sensitivity
Cloud feedback overestimated in coupled CESM2 simulations relative to AMIP simulations and satellite observations: importance of the pattern effect and implications for climate sensitivity, Raghuraman...
043
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Wrote a follow-up to my last post, on the nuances of model diversity. We've certainly benefited from developing new models and exploring parameter space, but have spent less time establishing reference model hierarchies "of lasting value" notesonclimate.substack.com/p/model-dive...
notesonclimate.substack.com
Model Diversity and Model Hierarchies
"A" hierarchy, or "the" hierarchy?
020
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Wrote about the new approaches people are taking to building climate models: km-resolution, automated tuning, ML emulators… Climate has benefited from having 10s of models to test and compare, now we have new dimensions of model diversity to learn from notesonclimate.substack.com/p/the-many-p...
notesonclimate.substack.com
The Many Possible Futures of Climate Models
Kilometer-scale models, machine learning and model diversity
0123
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
Recorded warm temperatures off Scripps pier www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
theguardian.com
Record high ocean temperatures off southern California raise fears of prolonged marine heatwave
Researchers warn the high-pressure conditions could disrupt marine life and ecosystems if it continues
000
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
This is a fun piece about the design challenge of communicating uncertainty in weather apps (though I’d quibble with the claim that climate change is making weather more unpredictable) www.newyorker.com/culture/infi...
newyorker.com
Why You Hate Your Weather App
As the weather becomes less predictable, we need forecasts and apps that are better at telling us what we don’t know.
130
Reposted by Nick Lutsko
Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
This looks useful: 'Emulating Natural Climate Variability With InVERT (Internal Variability Emulator for Regional Temperature)' agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Emulating Natural Climate Variability With InVERT (Internal Variability Emulator for Regional Temperature)
We present a method for low-cost emulation of spatially resolved natural temperature variability at monthly resolution The emulator output's statistical, spatial, and temporal characteristics res...
0104
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Back to basics: if we want to understand the pattern effect we need to think about wave dynamics
061
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
There’s a fun new study by Google & American Airlines optimizing flight paths to reduce contrails blog.google/innovation-a... These are clear-sky contrails tho & some recent papers suggest in-cloud contrails are much more common (with uncertain warming effects), similar to the ship track debates
blog.google
Our new study explores how AI can reduce the climate impact of air travel.
Our new study shows what happens when contrail avoidance is built directly into the tools airlines already use.
221
Reposted by Nick Lutsko
Duncan Watson-Parris @dwatsonparris.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
🌍 We're hiring a postdoc at the intersection of cutting-edge #AI and #Earth system science. Help us redefine how we build and evaluate the next generation of climate models. Based at @ucsandiego.bsky.social , funded by Google.org. 🧵
google.org
Google.org: Google's philanthropy
Google.org connects nonprofits to funding & additional resources. Learn about our philanthropy program and goal to aid underserved communities.
185
Reposted by Nick Lutsko
Cristi Proistosescu @cristiproist.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
Getting direct measurements of CO2 from Pliocene-aged ice has been a Holy Grail of climate science! A new paper by @jmarkspeterson.bsky.social provides a record of CO2 going back 3million years(!), with (let's say) intriguing implications for anthropogenic climate change doi.org/10.1038/s415... 1/
doi.org
Broadly stable atmospheric CO2 and CH4 levels over the past 3 million years - Nature
Blue ice records from Antarctica are used to determine methane and carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 3 million years.
48530
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
In a new paper led by Yue Xu, w/Daniel Koll, we present an analytic model for CO2 surface forcing agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/... There’s been much recent work building simple spectral models of TOA forcing, we apply similar ideas to the surface
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
An Analytical Model for CO2 $ Surface Forcing, With Application to the Direct Precipitation Response
An analytical model for CO2 ${\text{CO}}_{2}$’s surface forcing is developed, incorporating the 667 and 1000 cm−1 bands Surface forcing is non-monotonic and peaks at relatively cool surface tempe...
120
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
New paper with Casey Wall and. @blazgaspa.bsky.social developing an “Analytical Model of the Lifecycle of Tropical Anvil CREs” agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/... We combine a simple radiative transfer param, with cloud spreading and microphysics models to get a pen-and-part model for…
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
An Analytical Model of the Lifecycle of Tropical Anvil Cloud Radiative Effects
An analytical model is presented for the lifecycle of tropical anvil cloud radiative effects, including for cloud spreading The model reproduces the cloud radiative effect lifecycle seen in a clo...
110
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
Trying something a little different: why do we think of the Sun as yellow and the Moon as white? And why are Martian sunsets blue? notesonclimate.substack.com/p/white-moon...
notesonclimate.substack.com
White Moons, Blue Sunsets
Atmospheric composition and color
000
Reposted by Nick Lutsko
Andrew Williams @andrewilwilliams.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
My first sole-author paper is now published! 🎉🎉🎉 It's the culmination of a lot of thinking, so I hope you enjoy it. Thanks to the friends, colleagues, and reviewers who helped make this happen 😊 agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
1315
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Interesting new paper by @vtcoop.bsky.social argues high Pliocene sensitivity is mostly a pattern effect from non-CO2 factors, esp ice sheets: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... Interpretation seems subtle: if ice sheets ~stable Pliocene may be a poor analogue for 21st-century warming (too hot)...
pnas.org
PNAS
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans...
110
Reposted by Nick Lutsko
Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 30/01/2026
@agu.org has a tool to help you submit a comment to NSF on the importance of NCAR: agu.quorum.us/campaign/154... #SaveNCAR
agu.quorum.us
Share your comments on NCAR with NSF
Tell NSF the future that you want for NCAR by 13 March
17470
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
New post on the shape of the water vapor feedback: notesonclimate.substack.com/p/what-contr... Surprisingly, the WV feedback is controlled by surface temperature, not how much moisture is in the air
notesonclimate.substack.com
140
Reposted by Nick Lutsko
Duncan Watson-Parris @dwatsonparris.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
Bridging Physics & AI in Climate Modeling 🌍🤖 Introducing JCM v1.0: A fully differentiable, intermediate-complexity atmospheric model built in Python/JAX. Training hybrid models is hard because legacy code lacks gradients. JCM solves this.
1238
Reposted by Nick Lutsko
Nat Bullard @nathanielbullard.com · 15/01/2026
Do you like charts? Oh yes you do. I've just published hundreds of them, as I do every year. www.nathanielbullard.com/presentations
7445129
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
New piece trying to understand why it took <5 years for ML models to not just match, but beat traditional forecasts notesonclimate.substack.com/p/why-is-wea... My guess is ML's success comes from 3 factors: (1) infrastructure, (2) how it handles uncertainties inherent to forecasting, (3) compute
notesonclimate.substack.com
Why is Weather Forecasting such a Good Problem for ML?
Infrastructure, Uncertainties and Compute
110
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
Some interesting papers from over the break: Karen McKinnon and Isla Simpson showed evidence of substantial continental brightening from 1980 to 2024 that seems to be due to loss of cloud cover (not aerosols), but isn't reproduced by CMIP models agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Observed and Modeled Trends in Downward Surface Shortwave Radiation Over Land: Drivers and Discrepancies
Variability and trends in ERA5 downward surface shortwave radiation agree well with high-quality in situ and satellite-based estimates Recent (1980–2024) trends in shortwave over land largely ali...
120
Reposted by Nick Lutsko
Flavio Lehner @climateflavors.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
I came to the US over 10 years ago for a postdoc at NCAR. It changed my life and supercharged my ability to do science. NCAR's unique community nature makes it a global node in atmospheric and climate research. It's really not possible to overstate its value for science and society.
013030
Reposted by Nick Lutsko
National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 17/12/2025
Today, we're rolling out a new suite of AI-driven global weather models, including a "first of its kind" hybrid ensemble system! Want to get geeky with us? Come check it out: www.noaa.gov/news-release...
noaa.gov
This AIGFS forecast in the form of a map, for December 10, 2025, shows the heavy precipitation from an atmospheric river hitting the U.S. Pacific Northwest. AI weather models like this one will protect life and property by improving forecast accuracy and timeliness for events such as the catastrophic flooding that impacted the Northwest.
5336943
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
New paper by Wenyu Zhou finds recent poleward migration of TCs is dominated by Pacific variability www.nature.com/articles/s41... It's awkward that so many of the climate signals we observe are driven by the tropical Pacific, where models struggle but we also expect trends to reverse sign
nature.com
Poleward migration of tropical cyclones over 1980–2024 is dominated by Pacific variability - Nature Geoscience
A tripolar pattern of Pacific sea surface temperature variability strongly modulates tropical cyclone latitudes and largely determined their poleward migration during the period 1980–2024, according t...
000
Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
I've started a Substack to cross-post writing I put up on my website. Hopefully this makes it easier to follow. First one is a re-post of my most recent piece on "Energy Conservation in Climate Models" notesonclimate.substack.com/p/energy-con...
notesonclimate.substack.com
Notes on Climate | Nick Lutsko | Substack
Notes on Climate and Weather from Nick Lutsko SIO/UCSD. Click to read Notes on Climate, by Nick Lutsko, a Substack publication. Launched 2 hours ago.
121
Reposted by Nick Lutsko
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 11/12/2025
Beautiful analysis once again @hausfath.bsky.social www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-wha...
carbonbrief.org
Analysis: What are the causes of recent record-high global temperatures? - Carbon Brief
In this article, Carbon Brief explores four different factors that have been proposed for the exceptional warmth seen in recent years
296
Reposted by Nick Lutsko
Simon Lee @simonleewx.com · 09/12/2025
“Our results enhance the confidence in the climate model projections that the tropics will win the ‘tug-of-war’ and that the zonal-mean jet stream will shift poleward in response to future warming.” 👏 Louder for the people at the back!!📣
03812