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Nicholas D Carter

@nicholasdcarter.bsky.social
5.7K followers 529 following 393 posts

📚 Research Fellow | Project Drawdown (Food, Agriculture, Land) 🌳 Director of Environmental Science | Game Changers 2 🌎 Co-founder iffs.earth

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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 10h
Was a great find! Was interesting to learn this one page amongst many broader actions listed would trigger the cattlemen's association to pressure the publisher to stop printing them. Guess it didn't fit the little red barn/happy local animal farm dominating theme.
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 16h
Exxon faced lawsuits over climate deception. Beef industry associations deserve the same scrutiny and legal accountability. Full study: Jacquet J, Loy L (2026) Global warming and the National Cattlemen’s Association 1986–1996. PLOS Clim 5(10): e0001061. doi.org/10.1371/jour... 🧵/end
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 16h
“If the US had reduced beef and veal consumption by 50% starting in 1992 and replaced that consumption with other products…it is possible that somewhere between 4 and 13 Gt CO2eq could have been avoided between 1992 and 2023.” (Jacquet et al., 2025). Not even incl foregone land sparing C seq.
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 16h
NCA treated global warming as “a public relations concern that could affect consumer demand.” U.S. methane fell 19% from 1990–2022, driven by reductions from landfills & fossil fuels. Agricultural methane increased and livestock (mostly cattle) are now the leading anthropogenic methane source:
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 16h
I find this part hilarious. They even pressured Random House to stop reprinting a Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles book that explained cattle methane and encouraged eating less meat. By coincidence, I randomly found this book for my kids a year or so ago in a thrift shop:
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 16h
Its “Every Day is Earth Day for American Cattlemen” ad reached ~20 million people. Industry-sponsored reports–mostly w/a Texas A&M animal scientist, similar to recent UC Davis’ Mitloener–minimized cattle methane, both denying climate change but also falsifying %s & pushing out to the public.
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 16h
The NCA commissioned academic experts, monitored eco groups, attacked advocates for eating less beef, & promoted cattlemen as environmental stewards. Edelman PR recommended recruiting “third-party spokespersons, repeating our messages with a credibility we [the industry] cannot achieve.”
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 16h
A NCA rep at the 1989 EPA workshop on livestock’s methane contribution was one of 30 who agreed to “increase levels of research to find solutions to limiting CH4 emissions from livestock”. Instead NCA chose to: “control the agenda and prevent environmental issues from eroding consumer confidence.”
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 16h
John Robbins’ Diet for a New America (1987), Jeremy Rifkin’s Beyond Beef (1992), and the EPA’s livestock methane findings (1989) helped create an early-1990s PR crisis for the beef industry, fueling a disinfo response that has continued for decades.
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 16h
Just like Exxon knew about the impacts of climate change, the beef industry knew too. A new PLOS Climate study documents how the National Cattlemen’s Association (NCA), now NCBA, responded to evidence linking cattle methane to global warming from 1986–1996 (study 🔗 at end of 🧵)
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
But so often these broad regenerative claims are used to promote "better beef" that poses a much larger land-use problem: They can require ~2.5× as much land as conventional production, occupying land that could be restored for far higher carbon drawdown & biodiversity: drawdown.org/insights/eig...
drawdown.org
Eight reasons regenerative grazing can’t make beef climate-friendly
An influential regenerative grazing movement continues to grow. But here's why the science doesn't back up the purported climate benefits.
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Regenerative ag's GHG mitigation potential must consider impacts on yield & land-use New study iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... A small yield penalty for regenerative crops—for otherwise low land use & high yield for direct consumption—is likely worth the tradeoff to protect long-term soil use
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Institute for Future Food Systems @iffs-earth.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Shifting half of Canada's red and processed meat to plant proteins: +8.7 months of life, -25% diet emissions, most of it from what you add. Personal swaps matter but stay above the climate boundary, so supply and institutions matter too. www.nature.com/articles/s43...
nature.com
Partial substitutions of animal with plant protein foods in Canadian diets have synergies and trade-offs among nutrition, health and climate outcomes - Nature Food
Canada’s Food Guide recommends greater consumption of plant protein foods, but replacing animal with plant protein sources might have important consequences. Based on actual food intake values, this s...
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The claim that cattle upcycle forage from marginal land is overplayed; it still displaces native wildlife We can extract protein at far less GHGs/land & in high adoption this can meet ALL protein/cal needs vs. cattle supplying ~3% My latest drawdown.org/explorer/dep... @projectdrawdown.bsky.social
drawdown.org
Deploy Leaf Protein Concentrates
Deployment of liquid protein concentrates could be a major climate solution, but it is not ready at scale. We will keep watching for further development.
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Silvia Secchi @profsecchi.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Dr. Foley is absolutely correct. “Regenerative” grazing being presented as a solution is very problematic from a climate action perspective b/c it is really obstruction that promotes unjust and unsustainable practices. Wealthy people can afford to pay the “regenerative” premium, the planet cannot.
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Alot of uncertainty in that analysis you keep pushing like it's consensus. And claiming extinction like it's inevitable isn't helpful. And it's ridiculous to act like using some alfafa way more efficiently is somehow normalizing beef or dairy.
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Agreed, legumes are excellent protein sources, but LPC uses otherwise inedible leaves, particularly alfalfa already grown for cattle feed. We can retain vegetation for soil health while producing more food from less land Did you read the analysis? Duckweed & sugar beet leaves also leading options.
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
What if we extracted the protein from alfalfa fed to dairy cows, skipping their CH4 & land use, to create healthy alternatives? Leaf protein concentrates emit ~1/10th of the GHGs per ha & may be key to our growing food demands New by me w/ @projectdrawdown.bsky.social drawdown.org/explorer/dep...
drawdown.org
Deploy Leaf Protein Concentrates
Deployment of liquid protein concentrates could be a major climate solution, but it is not ready at scale. We will keep watching for further development.
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Emily Cassidy @enviroem.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Beef may be going the way of the internal-combustion engine. Drought, high fuel and feed prices are threatening U.S. beef--an industry that is vulnerable to climate change and a major emitter. Insightful article by @billmckibben.bsky.social @newyorker.com www.newyorker.com/news/the-led...
newyorker.com
The True Cost of Beef
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., eats beef every day, but more Americans, faced with rising prices and another climate warning, might want something else for dinner.
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Danny Cullenward @ghgpolicy.org · 17/09/2026
The inimitable @mikegrunwald.bsky.social has an exceptionally well written oped on the disastrous proposal from the Greenhouse Gas Protocol to give companies carbon credit for cutting down trees.
nytimes.com
Opinion | The Latest Corporate Climate Ruse (Gift Article)
Making deforestation look climate-friendly will encourage a lot more deforestation.
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Yeah land sparing matters way more, via dietary change plant-based first. & then, better farming like stock-free organic is important, keeping a close eye on yields. Ultimately the biggest yield loss comes from feed crops conversion to meat. Then need to see diff between conv & org but less imp.
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Largely agree with OWID. 2 things I'll add: 1. Veganic farming (tho niche) likely performs better than manure-org: corporateknights.com/food-beverag... but need more research to compare. 2. Rather than focusing too much on on-farm biodiversity, broader diversity & land-spared matters far more.
corporateknights.com
Veganic farming wants to take the bull shit out of organic agriculture
Organic agriculture has become synonymous with spreading manure. Veganic farming is cultivating a greener path.
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George Monbiot @georgemonbiot.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
"Regenerative grazing" is a greenwashing scam, nothing more. Here's why. Please don't be taken in. drawdown.org/insights/eig...
drawdown.org
Eight reasons regenerative grazing can’t make beef climate-friendly
An influential regenerative grazing movement continues to grow. But here's why the science doesn't back up the purported climate benefits.
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
The science shows regenerative grazing simply doesn't work And I get it, it's a captivating well funded story ($200M from McD's otw), and it's easier to convince many that small tweaks are all that's needed vs. actual systemic changes away from beef 🧵here's 8+ reasons why this won't make beef eco
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Project Drawdown @projectdrawdown.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Cattle continue emitting methane as long as they remain on the landscape, regardless of what alt grazing practices can or can’t do for soil’s capacity to store carbon in the form of soil organic carbon (SOC). Learn more 👉https://drawdown.org/insights/
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Bottom line: we need to to grow more food on less land, in ways that protects soil & allows space for carbon sequestration & biodiversity. Put simply, that's more plant-based, & phasing away from animal-sourced foods. Latest from me with @projectdrawdown.bsky.social drawdown.org/insights/eig...
drawdown.org
Eight reasons regenerative grazing can’t make beef climate-friendly
An influential regenerative grazing movement continues to grow. But here's why the science doesn't back up the purported climate benefits.
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Earth’s monitored wildlife populations have fallen 73% in the past half-century. Animal-sourced foods are the leading driver of biodiversity and habitat loss globally, with grazing cattle bearing disproportionate responsibility. Extensively farming uses more land per KG (some est. 2x per KG).
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Regenerative grazing often promotes increasing stocking rates (so more CH4). But let's say they didn't & called for reducing intensity In arid and semi-arid regions (~80% of global grazing land), reducing intensity provides neutral & often still negative effects on SOC: drawdown.org/explorer/red...
drawdown.org
Reduce Grazing Intensity
Increase Livestock Grazing
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Ruminant farming only provides about 2% of the global calorie supply & 3-5% of the global protein supply. While not all land used for grazing cattle can support crops, beef uses nearly 40% of global cropland, enough to feed ~7 billion people if that land was used for food crops instead.
“Ruminant meat production contributes…only 1.4% of global calories and 3.1% of global protein” (Wirsenius et al., 2025)
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2976-601X/ae4f6b
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
But what about xx study that shows beef is net zero?! Poorly conducted studies are cited 3x as often as credible research. Many are high-rainfall areas, often previously forest. Ind. big scale b4 & after control studies that track SOC to >30 cm over 5–10+ yrs is key: drawdown.org/explorer/dep...
drawdown.org
Deploy Alternative Grazing
Improve Livestock Grazing is a potential climate solution that we will Keep Watching.
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
But regenerative grazing promises to improve soil. Soil outcomes also depend as much/or more on rainfall, temperature, geology, & previous land use than grazing techniques alone. And we know among the best soil is untouched wild nature, exactly what shifts plant-based free up.
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Meanwhile, rewilding these pastures alone could sequester ~13Gt of CO2 per year. And if we consider that we'd be looking at about 8Gt of GHGs from business-as-usual growth of farming ruminants, that's about a 21Gt opportunity in shifting away - equivalent to more emissions than China!
Hayek et al., 2024
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Grazing cattle is the single largest land-use humans have undertaken. Most degrade land, & where it may reduce SOC loss, gains are temporary & outweighed by the methane year after year. Offsetting global ruminant GHGs through SOC would require nearly 2x the carbon stock in all managed grasslands
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
The science shows regenerative grazing simply doesn't work And I get it, it's a captivating well funded story ($200M from McD's otw), and it's easier to convince many that small tweaks are all that's needed vs. actual systemic changes away from beef 🧵here's 8+ reasons why this won't make beef eco
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Project Drawdown @projectdrawdown.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
A lot of people are asking whether regenerative grazing can solve beef's climate problem. 🐄 🌡️ 📈 In his latest Insights post, @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social, Drawdown Research Fellow, breaks down the peer-reviewed science behind the answer. Read more: bit.ly/3UDJbjB
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Dr. Jonathan Foley @globalecoguy.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
The idea that "regenerative" grazing is a climate solution has really taken hold in some quarters. But the science is clear: It doesn't work. Methane and land-use emissions just overwhelm any soil carbon benefits. Here's a great piece by @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social drawdown.org/insights/eig...
drawdown.org
Eight reasons regenerative grazing can’t make beef climate-friendly
An influential regenerative grazing movement continues to grow. But here's why the science doesn't back up the purported climate benefits.
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
So many attacks on ultra-processed foods yet: "A pig or chicken genetically modified to grow extremely fast and fed a steady diet of soybean meal and industrially produced feed additives" and often antibiotics, gets a free pass as natural newrepublic.com/article/2141... @jandutkiewicz.bsky.social
"But the bill will come due for all of us, in one way or another. If Kennedy and the MAHA movement are successful in convincing Americans to eat even more meat, it will not only cause more heart disease and diabetes, but necessarily lead to more factory farms, more cancer-causing pesticides, and more rivers polluted by runoff. That is the reality. The MAHA fantasy is just a road to the very future that MAHA claims to oppose, in which we're all in poorer health and Big Ag is bigger than ever."
Jan Dutkiewicz
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Kristian Steensen Nielsen @kristiansn89.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
🌍 A defense of the personal carbon footprint 🌱 I often hear people, including in the climate community, dismiss the concept of a personal carbon footprint. I believe this is a mistake. Here are three reasons why👇🧵
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Reducing food waste is key: drawdown.org/explorer/red... Composting too, a win-win. Re: food waste though, feed conversion to meat loss is so underappreciated (equivalent to many billions more people potentially fed): iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... And what is wasted (🥩vs.🫘) also matters:
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00710-3
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
I don't think an end to trawling & fish farming is ambitious enough. North atlantic right whales will still face extinction. We'll still see fishing waste and wild food webs disrupted. None of it is a necessity for mid/rich income esp, and with better food equity globally, we can all thrive without.
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Many areas reliant on fishing for basic food security/nutrients are competing against industrial fleets extracting fish. Anyway, as I understand it you don't support that and we have commonality there. And yeah change needs to come from many with privilege to do so (global north, rich, etc.).
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
FAO changed their accounting methodology in 2010 (should have mentioned that in the alt text of that figure)
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
I disagree. To me, that's bothsidesism, acting like the issues are close to equal. We can be clear that plant proteins are a win across every environmental metrics (because they are) while also acknowledging some remaining issues in the broader margins (palm oil, chocolate, coffee).
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
I understand your point: there's levels. But I'm not comparing fish to animal foods produced on land, I'm comparing to plants where of course we can achieve excellent nutrition at all stages of development. And you mentioned your fish in your original reply, not fish in food insecure areas :)
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
I live in a small rural fishing town. Even small boats can cause damage too, as is clear with the north atlantic right whale being driven to extinction, mostly from lobster fishing.
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Low land/freshwater use doesn’t mean low biodiversity impact though which was my main point of contention. ~26% of wild catch comes from trawling, while 15–25% of the continental shelf is trawled each year, causing up to 41% loss of seabed biota according to www.nature.com/articles/s43...
nature.com
Broad bidirectional effects of global food production on the environment - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
Food production systems have negative effects on the environment, and environmental changes threaten global food production and security. This Review discusses the bidirectional effects of food produc...
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
It's not as positive of a signal as it looks though. It's a drought induced & feed cost related herd reduction, which could be how this happens globally, but beef production around the world is still going up. US is just importing more from Brazil, etc., driving up issues elsewhere.
https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/75/12/1016/8303627
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
*respectfully :)
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Sure, it's a climate-win relative to beef but, respectively, even wild-caught fish is a major biodiversity loss issue. Outside of the 3% of fishing for subsistence (1.2% of calorie supply) we need to massively scale back and I'd instead love to see more kelp/plant-based seafood alternatives.
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Nicholas D Carter @nicholasdcarter.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Global protein consumption has increased by 1/3 since 1960 More than half of this new growth has come from animal sources, despite plant protein still making up 62% of all protein supply Reversing this trend & being clear on plant protein wins (fibre, planetary health, equal muscle gain) is key
"relative" change in protein supply, showing animal protein growing faster via: https://ourworldindata.org/food-supply

Other references: FAOSTAT & Poore & Nemecek (2018)
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