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New Left EViews

@newlefteviews.bsky.social
4.7K followers 495 following 219 posts

Economist, researcher, writer etc • Int'l & European political economy, geoeconomics, climate, history • 1/3 of 'Eurotrash' and host of 'States and Markets', writing a book on trade

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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 7h
I had the pleasure of joining Joe and Tracy on the great Odd Lots podcast to talk about Europe. The short version: I’m bullish on Europe’s position relative to the US but bearish on trade with China. Link: t.co/curFVPwT7N
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 7h
I had the pleasure of joining Joe and Tracy on the great Odd Lots podcast to talk about Europe. The short version: I’m bullish on Europe’s position relative to the US but bearish on trade with China. Link: t.co/curFVPwT7N
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
I’m in the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social today, trying to account for Brexit’s role in Britain’s long decline. The verdict: it killed the recovery from austerity, which had killed the recovery from the crisis. Rejoining single market maybe worth the political capital one day—but not now. Link👇
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I had great fun talking about the political economy of football with in light of the Man City scandal with the guys from @endofsportpod.bsky.social
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Nina Zeelen @ninazeelen.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
"A short profile and comment on Merz, a chancellor with no ideas and remarkably unfit for the job of steering the sclerotic German economy through the increasingly hostile waters of a two-front trade war." - @newlefteviews.bsky.social (2025)
jacobin.com
Germany’s New Chancellor Is a Man Without Qualities
Friedrich Merz, Germany’s new chancellor, is the worst possible man for the job. Throughout his career, he has held a dogged commitment to a neoliberal ideology that has destroyed Europe’s social fabr...
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Nathan Kalman-Lamb @nkalamb.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Very fun and informative episode with @newlefteviews.bsky.social on the political economy of the Prem.
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
All timer.
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
From the other site:
yields, spreads, bonds, ECB, euro, France, fiscal, debt
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Jacobin @jacobinmag.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The primacy of the dollar is considered one of the pillars of American might, conferring exorbitant financial privileges and coercive power. But what maintains the global dollar system is in fact inseparable from what’s driving American domestic decline.
jacobin.com
Does Dollar Supremacy Help Americans?
The primacy of the dollar is considered one of the pillars of American might, conferring exorbitant financial privileges and coercive power. But what maintains the global dollar system is in fact inseparable from what’s driving American domestic decline.
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UnHerd @unherd.com · 02/07/2026
Any viable solution to the British housing question requires a deliberate diminution of the housing wealth held by the current voting majority — which is why such solutions have been politely set aside for 40 years. | Dominik Leusder unherd.com/2026/07/the-...
unherd.com
The great British housing con
Spectators watch a demolition in Glasgow in 2025. (Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
This place have group chats now or what?
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
Provost of Kings College, Cambridge, ladies and gentlemen. The college that produced JM Keynes
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
.. which you are undermining but reducing debt through fiscal measures, and on not having a central bank that isn’t deliberately unaccommodating.
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
This invariably involves greater debt but there is *zero* reason to focus on the numerator of some dumb ratio or other arbitrary some debt stock measures rather than focusing on whether the debt can be sustainably serviced in the long run which again depends on the growth trajectory..
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
At a time when public investment is more needed than ever. Reminder: the best way to reduce debt in the long term is growth, long term growth depends on investment, smart public investment crowds-in and increases the returns on private capital formation through demand, infrastructure upgrades etc.
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
The FT should be ashamed of this disgracefully ignorant piece that rehashes long discredited notions about public debt, fear-mongering about ‘a truly devastating debt explosion’ and wishing for a bond market ‘jolt’ to ‘concentrate minds’. I won’t even link to it.
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Lauri Donahue @lauridonahue.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
futurism.com/future-socie... lol
As one New York financier told Financial Times journalist Gillian Tett, new hires who were seen as “AI natives” are turning out to have alarmingly shallow ideas. So much so, the anonymous finance worker admitted, that his firm now actively avoids seeking out AI-literate STEM graduates, and opts to comb through humanities students instead.
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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
“Obviously nonsense, rightwing propaganda,” says Portes. “He is clearly capable. The idea that he’s some sort of communist or that he’s going to be fiscally irresponsible is just stupid.” 👍👏
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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Mbappé shows how to achieve work/life balance by quitting when his team is well ahead. In this LinkedIn post I will…
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
When comparing advanced economies, there is a hard limit to how meaningful current output levels are. But let’s be accurate, especially when commentators make huge inferences from poor data. Here: the best measure of real output we have for this context, along with key wellbeing indicators.
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Productive investment is what drives long-run real growth. Any country that wants to maintain living standards and sustainably service its debt needs to maintain adequate levels of capital formation: investment in the things with which the economy creates more things: equipment, buildings, IP etc.
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Arguably no advanced economy struggled more to invest and build than the United Kingdom. And the picture doesn't materially change for real GFCF, whether as a share of output, per capita or per hour. Have a piece on this later this month.
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Yusuf @yusufimaadkhan.com · 26/06/2026
I don’t deny that a level of decoupling between growth and environmental impact has taken place (as argued in chart below). But the reason I take degrowth seriously is because I’m not sure decoupling is sufficiently fast/widespread/persistent to avoid (even more!) terrible warming scenarios.
Financial Times chart

Title: Growth used to come with increased environmental impact; now rich countries are growing while reducing their footprints

Subtitle: Trajectory of per-capita environmental impact and GDP, high-income countries, 1960-2022

Text beneath chart: Emissions are adjusted for trade and thus do not reflect offshoring of manufacturing. Source: 'Developed economies are growing while reducing many of their environmental impacts' (Dancer et al, 2026)
FT graphic: John Burn-Murdoch / @jburnmurdoch

Chart shows 4 faceted connected scatter plots, each with their own relative y axis.

On x axis is GDP per capita 

On y axis you have - 
1. CO2 emissions (t)
2. Material footprint (t)
3. Primary energy (MWh)
4. SO2 emissions (kg)

ALL PER CAPITA

The trends show all y axis variables peaked and declined (but all at different rates) as GDP per capita increases over time. This is meant to argue and illustrate the decoupling case.
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Yusuf @yusufimaadkhan.com · 07/07/2026
"If austerity killed the recovery from the crisis, Brexit killed the recovery from austerity." – @newlefteviews.bsky.social www.newstatesman.com/business/eco...
newstatesman.com
You can't blame Brexit anymore
Our economy was broken long before the referendum
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Link: www.newstatesman.com/business/eco...
newstatesman.com
You can't blame Brexit anymore
Our economy was broken long before the referendum
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
I’m in the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social today, trying to account for Brexit’s role in Britain’s long decline. The verdict: it killed the recovery from austerity, which had killed the recovery from the crisis. Rejoining single market maybe worth the political capital one day—but not now. Link👇
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
«Any viable solution to the British housing question requires a deliberate diminution of the housing wealth held by the current voting majority—which is why such solutions have been politely set aside for 40 years.» Me in @unherd.com on the heels of @andyburnham.bsky.social’s speech. Link👇
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
«In economic terms, removing barriers to construction and restricting openness to global investors are viable responses [...]. But politically the problem runs deeper. Britain has reconfigured its economy in a way that is difficult to unwind.» unherd.com/2026/07/the-...
unherd.com
The great British housing con
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Flamman @flamman.se · 06/02/2025
Trumps tullar slår hårdast mot hans fattigaste väljare – men lär berika USA:s elit. Ekonomen Dominik Leusder om ett dödfött projekt:
flamman.se
Trumps tullmani löser knappast USA:s problem
Gör Amerika dyrt igen – och lär inte stoppa landets nedgång
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
«In economic terms, removing barriers to construction and restricting openness to global investors are viable responses [...]. But politically the problem runs deeper. Britain has reconfigured its economy in a way that is difficult to unwind.» unherd.com/2026/07/the-...
unherd.com
The great British housing con
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
«Any viable solution to the British housing question requires a deliberate diminution of the housing wealth held by the current voting majority—which is why such solutions have been politely set aside for 40 years.» Me in @unherd.com on the heels of @andyburnham.bsky.social’s speech. Link👇
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Albert Pinto @70sbachchan.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
Imagine if hundreds of people died in hurricane or floods smashing through Europe Heatwaves have already killed that many ppl. They are a silent killer in that they dont generate outrage or fear. Hope this by @economist.com helps save lives as Europeans wake up to danger bsky.app/profile/eate...
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Albert Pinto @70sbachchan.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
EU AC debate feels partly like a op... Reminder Fossil capital fed climate denial narratives @doctorvive.bsky.social Stage 1: Deny the Problem Exists 2: Deny We're the Cause 3: Deny It's a Problem 4: Deny We can Solve It 5: It's too Late, and it’s all your fault. phenomenalworld.org/analysis/glo...
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Yusuf @yusufimaadkhan.com · 02/07/2026
“I don’t think it’s right to apportion blame,” McSweeney says, arguing that everyone was responsible for wasting the valuable first months in power and losing the faith of voters. lmfao
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
I had crunching some numbers on Iran's external liabilities for Bourse & Bazaar. Thanks very much to @yarbatman.bsky.social. www.bourseandbazaar-substack.org/p/irans-econ...
bourseandbazaar-substack.org
Iran’s Economy Can Absorb $300 Billion Targeted in MOU
Iran’s economy is large relative to its current external liabilities stock, which sits at a miniscule 2.5% of GDP.
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
The Mississippi versus UK thing is funny and I think it's worth discussing in a longer essay that I'm writing on Britain's decline, so I've removed the thread from yesterday for now. But for now here are the headline graphics.
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
The link at the end of the thread was broken so here it is: open.substack.com/pub/leusdero...
open.substack.com
Europe, America, PPPs and a (possible) natural experiment in deflator harmonisation
A little empirical test, why both current and constant PPPs are conceptually inappropriate, why chained PPPs are the approrpiate methodological compromise, and why probably none of this matters.
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Sorry: open.substack.com/pub/leusdero...
open.substack.com
The US is poorer than Belgium and Europe is not falling behind
Both Europe and America are in decline—but not relative to each other and from very different levels of development and material wellbeing.
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
Europe vs America: Supplemental Once more with feeling: here’s a small test that strengthens the case that the productivity wedge since 1995 in the constant PPP series is a deflator asymmetry mirage and that the chained PPP series adjusts for along with Balassa-Samuelson: 1/
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
Many more details here: please do subscribe. Shoutout to @arindube.bsky.social whose tweet I borrowed towards the end. END open.substack.com/pub/leusderofl…
open.substack.com
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
In which case I feel more confident about this narrative: there is no relative decline until 2020 and thereafter it’s not ICT driven capital deepening but big fiscal. Europe is stagnating and needs reforms—but not Americanisation. 14/
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
The chained PPP might be doing exactly what it’s meant to do. Chained and current (blue) series might just indicate that Europe and US are tracking each other, ICT raises productive on both sides, and Balassa-Samuelson is small until the Biden stimulus, which is plausible: 13/
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
Here’s how the wedges compare graphically. This seems familiar. 12/
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
Here are the group means and the changes between vintages: 11/
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
This is post harmonisation: the UK and US gap collapses to 2.3pp from 8.4pp and huge gaps open up between UK and Europe. To make this clean: I’m using the PWT’s own multi-benchmark constant series RGDPn to compare to RGDPo. 10/
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
Here’s are the PWT10.0 wedge means: large between US and UK and the Europe and US ones are much larger than the Europe and UK wedges. 9/
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
Helpfully, the ONS backdated the series and the PWT10.0 and PWT11.0 vintages are on either side of the harmonisation, with 11.0 incorporating the new series. So we can test how the ‘wedges’ between the UK and Europe / US change in each vintage for constant and chained PPPs. 8/
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
But there’s an outlier: the UK. Until 2021 it had not really harmonised its accounts: it used single deflation and matched models. Then it switched to double-deflation and hedonic adjustment for ICT, clothing etc. This harmonisation made it more ‘American’, methodologically. 7/
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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
If, as is the case, the US uses hedonic deflation and uses it more aggressively and Europe tends to be more on the matched model / less aggressive hedonic adjustment side, then a lot of the ‘wedge’ could be a pure artefact of backward extrapolation. 6/
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