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Meanwhile... bsky.app/profile/neil...

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NOTES: - UK production data from NSTA and OE-UK (for the max case) - Future demand data from CCC. The path to net zero is from CB7, the No-Policy baseline is from the CCC also. I assume in the "Reform rollback" scenario that O&G demand follows the trend of the No-Policy baseline from 2029 onwards

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This is obviously toy analysis – I don't have a 🔮 to know how much gas Reform's (non-existent) climate policies would drive. But the main point stands: Reform couldn't get much more O&G out of the North Sea (coz geology). But they could lock in a lot more O&G demand in our energy system.

The fastest way to energy independence is to stop burning the damn stuff in the first place! 👏 Electrify 👏 Electrify 👏 Electrify 👏

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Overall: 🛢️ Oil imports would be 85% larger in 2035 under this "rollback" scenario than if we press on to NZ by 2050 🔥 Gas imports would be 63% larger By 2040, O&G imports would be 3x larger, and by 2050 they'd be up 5.5x

The result? ▶️ Reform would burn a lot more O&G than they dig up, and would overall INCREASE, not REDUCE, the UK's import dependency These graphs compare a world where there's no new fields, but we reach NZ by 2050 & a world where we roll back climate policy but try to get more O&G out of the UKCS

This would add 🛢️ 270 TWh of oil demand in 2035 🔥 250 TWh of gas demand in 2035 Relative to a pathway which aligns with the UK's (*cough* legally-binding *cough*) carbon budgets

Meanwhile, Reform also want to burn a LOT more fossil fuels. What if Reform, in 2029, put oil and gas demand back to trend with the No-Policy baseline*? They won't be able to reverse all climate policy to-date, but they'll give it a good go. This is what that would look like *(details at the end)

Overall, if Labour doesn't approve ANY of the projects that have already been discovered, and a theoretical Reform Gov approves them all and drives discoveries, that would still only boost 🛢️ Oil production by 48 TWh in 2035 🔥 Gas production by 65 TWh

... but it's possible that they let at least some of this be extracted. Reform & the Tories are *obsessed* with getting as much O&G out of the North Sea as possible. Even the industry body Offshore Energies UK doesn't think this is going to change the picture – UK O&G production is on the way down

Well, first – how much more O&G might we extract under a Reform Gov? These graphs show – it's not much. Labour has said they're committed to no new licensing rounds (so no new discoveries). It's not clear what they'll do with the O&G that's already been discovered but not approved for extraction...

But Reform don't only want to extract more fossil fuels, they also want to burn more... They'd ▶️ Scrap "net stupid zero" policies ▶️ Terminate existing contracts / subsidies on renewables ▶️ Make it virtually impossible to build more *How would this impact on the UK's oil and gas import dependency?*

Now, others have already pointed out very eloquently that: ▶️ O&G is sold on intnl markets – unless you want to requisition these companies, you still have to pay the $$$ to get the fuel ▶️ The North Sea is in terminal decline & new fields will not change this ▶️ A liveable climate is a good thing

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Guy Shrubsole @guyshrubsole.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

🚨Reform could almost *DOUBLE* oil and gas imports by 2035 🚨 (by my rough estimates) The war in Iran has led to a million folks suggesting that we just need to drill in the North Sea a bit more, and the UK will be all fine again. Notably, that voice of reason, Reform UK, is keen on this

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Reposted by Neil Grant

VICTORY! Government to open up the Land Registry - bringing to an end a thousand years of secrecy shrouding who owns England. I’ve been campaigning for this for ten years: the new Land Use Framework, published later today, makes it government policy. 1/ www.theguardian.com/environment/...

theguardian.com

Government to lift paywall from large parts of the Land Registry

Exclusive: finding out who owns land will become simpler under plans to make the best use of green spaces and hit net zero targets

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Neil Grant @neilgrant.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

54 million tonnes of CO2 is: ▶️ Equivalent to >25 million cars on the road* ▶️ More than the lowest 25 African emitters combined ▶️ Would put it as the 7th largest emitter in Africa, if it was a country The scale of this plant is just mindblowing *(European emissions factors + driving)

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Neil Grant @neilgrant.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

Today I learned about Secunda CTL, a coal-to-liquids plant in South Africa & the largest single emitter in the world. In 2023 it emitted 54 MILLION tonnes of CO2 🤯 The main site alone is ~9 km2, or more than 3x the size of the City of London district 🤯