iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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Berlin School of Economics @bsoeberlin.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

🎯 Do people ignore information because it’s costly – or because they’re too confident in what they already know? 📊 A new study shows that overconfidence in one’s own beliefs can reduce attention to new information. Read more 👉 berlinschoolofeconomics.de/about-us/new...

When Confidence Limits Attention: New Evidence on Belief Updating
by Ciril Bosch-Rosa, Muhammed Bulutay, and Bernhard Kassner

Focus and Research Question

Overprecision—overestimating the accuracy of one’s own beliefs—may shape how people allocate attention to information. This matters because, in an information-rich world, ignoring additional evidence is often framed as rational. However, what seems rational may instead be partially driven by biased confidence in one’s existing views.

Theory and Approach

The authors extend a standard model of rational inattention (choosing how much information to process when it is costly) to include overprecision. They predict that overconfident people will update their beliefs less and pay less attention.

Data and Experiment

They run a pre-registered online experiment with a representative German sample. Participants estimate average ages in photos, report how uncertain they are, and then update their beliefs after seeing some information.

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Muhammed Bulutay @mvbulutay.bsky.social · 31/05/2025

Princeton University Press books are discounted by 50%. I'd say that's a great deal! press.princeton.edu?cq_src=googl...

press.princeton.edu

Homepage

Princeton University Press is a nonprofit publisher with close connections to Princeton University.

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Muhammed Bulutay @mvbulutay.bsky.social · 20/05/2025

Come and listen to me talk about my work on what consumers think about central bank inflation forecasts and how that affects inflation expectations and trust at the "Theories and Methods in Macroeconomics" Conference. There are many other interesting projects too! www.t2m.network/2025/program/

t2m.network

Program 2025

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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 11/05/2025

Thanks to everybody who chimed in! I arrived at the conclusion that (1) there's a lot of interesting stuff about interactions and (2) the figure I was looking for does not exist. So, I made it myself! Here's a simple illustration of how to control for confounding in interactions:>

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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

The "unexpected compression" in wages continues! Non-managerial wages (for around 80% of private workforce) continues to grow somewhat stronger than overall wages. This means the reduction in wage inequality post-pandemic has remained, and continued (at a slower pace).

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Muhammed Bulutay @mvbulutay.bsky.social · 24/04/2025

🚨New paper🚨 Classic rational inattention says people weigh costs vs. benefits when processing info. We show that overprecision biases this evaluation — leading to misallocated attention. 📄 Theory + experiment (link in last post) #econsky @boschrosa.bsky.social

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Muhammed Bulutay @mvbulutay.bsky.social · 18/04/2025

This is something people undervalue about laboratory experiments. One can credibly boost the understanding of instructions, sometimes just by reading them aloud.

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Lab² @labsquare.net · 31/03/2025

🔔 Call for Participation 🔔 Lab² is inviting researchers to take part in a multi-analyst study on the effects of having daughters on various outcomes. Join this metascience project as a co-author and gain the opportunity to work with SOEP data!

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Ivan Moscati @ivan-moscati.bsky.social · 28/03/2025

I’ve just completed a revision of a paper titled “Psychological narratives in decision theory: what they are and what they are good for.” I believe it makes a contribution to the recent literature on the epistemic role of narratives in science, particularly in economics. ssrn.com/abstract=476...

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Muhammed Bulutay @mvbulutay.bsky.social · 27/03/2025

This is a great opportunity to join us in the beautiful city of Heidelberg. Let me note that experiments are a common method among the faculty, including macroeconomists and microeconomists.

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Muhammed Bulutay @mvbulutay.bsky.social · 27/03/2025

That sounds like a good idea. I just hope it doesn't have unintended effects like discrimination.

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John A. List @johnlist.bsky.social · 25/03/2025

I finally have a publication date for my new Experimental Economics textbook: December 12. Equally as important, I am proud to have negotiated a low price for the book: $38.10...for a nearly 800 page book! You can find the book here: www.amazon.com/Experimental...

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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 24/03/2025

Whenever I post about climate, skeptical folks inevitable respond with this graph. So I decided to do something radical: actually read the underling scientific paper and ask the authors. As it turns out, it actually says the opposite of what skeptics claim: www.theclimatebrink....

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Muhammed Bulutay @mvbulutay.bsky.social · 05/03/2025

Much of the recent literature uses non-incentivized measures of beliefs and attitudes. The typical justification is based on simplicity. This study seems to show otherwise.

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Georg Weizsäcker @georgweizsaecker.bsky.social · 03/03/2025

If one person gives a euro to Ukraine, the result is €1. If two people give 2 each, it is €4. If 3,000 give 3,000 each, it is 9 million. Let’s coordinate, here 👇 and please re-post to spread the word. yourcontributionsquared.eu/en/

yourcontributionsquared.eu

Your Contribution Squared

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Muhammed Bulutay @mvbulutay.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

This is the summer school that got me interested in macroeconomics and finance. I highly recommend it. And it is in Barcelona! www.upf.edu/web/beslab/h...

upf.edu

16th BESLAB Experimental Economics Summer School in Macroeconomics, June 16-22, 2025

16th BESLAB Experimental Economics Summer School in Macroeconomics

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Muhammed Bulutay @mvbulutay.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

I wonder if they would behave differently if there were some humans in the market. The common knowledge of rationality may be what's driving their outcome.

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Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · 25/02/2025

After a long wait, the working paper for the Many-Economists Project: The Sources of Researcher Variation in Economics. We had 146 teams perform the same research three times, each time with less freedom. What source of freedom leads to different choices and results? papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

papers.ssrn.com

The Sources of Researcher Variation in Economics

We use a rigorous three-stage many-analysts design to assess how different researcher decisions—specifically data cleaning, research design, and the interpretat

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Muhammed Bulutay @mvbulutay.bsky.social · 25/02/2025

This is a very interesting result. My opinion: RCTs remain one of the more robust methods for p-hacking because the results are more verifiable due to data availability, pre-registration, and simplicity of analyses. In contrast, IV, structural, and simulations are much more flexible for p-hacking.

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Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 25/02/2025

The 2025 Annual Meeting of the Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA) will be co-organized with the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Harvard Business School Deadline March 20! Also a session organized by @suomenpankki.fi ! cebra.org/events/annua...

cebra.org

Annual Meeting - CEBRA

2025 CEBRA Annual Meeting: Call for Papers The 2025 Annual Meeting of the Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA) will be co-organized with the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Harvard Business Sc...

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Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

After being alerted about possible misconduct, the I4R are reproducing published papers that use data from a specific NGO (GDRI). This thread releases the first 2 reports and provides more information about the work and responses/statements from authors journals and journals. 🧵

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Muhammed Bulutay @mvbulutay.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

I really like stacked bar charts for time series.

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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 21/02/2025

With companies debating return-to-office policies, Alessandra Fenizia @afenizia.bsky.social (GWU) examines productivity differences between remote and office work—using data from UK public sector workers. Hosted by @talknormal.co.uk 🔊 Listen here: cepr.org/multimedia/d... #EconSky

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Muhammed Bulutay @mvbulutay.bsky.social · 19/02/2025

I always wanted to see the data on train delays. My experience with German trains has been so bad that I've begun to think I might be underestimating train delays in other countries. This data proves otherwise.

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Muhammed Bulutay @mvbulutay.bsky.social · 19/02/2025

A central banker talking about growth? Looks like it's going to be an interesting talk. I wish my German was good enough to keep up.

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George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 07/02/2025

A new working paper with Daniel Banki, @urisohn.bsky.social and Robert Walatka, just submitted to SSRN. The paper is comment on Ryan Oprea's recent AER paper. The paper is processing, but you, my friends, get early entry. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Title Authors Abstract (Decision under Risk are Decisions Under Complexity: Comment)

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Muhammed Bulutay @mvbulutay.bsky.social · 10/02/2025

Whaaat?😲 This is insanely low given that household inflation expectations are typically a few points above realized inflation.

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Muhammed Bulutay @mvbulutay.bsky.social · 17/12/2024

Tomorrow at #EWMES 2024 I'll be presenting a new project with @boschrosa.bsky.social and Bernhard Kassner on how overconfidence affects attention allocation. Come and listen if you're in Palma and interested! WP available on request.

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Our World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 10/12/2024

The world is awful. The world is much better. The world can be much better. All three statements are true at the same time. Understanding this is key to solving big global problems. We believe data & research can help us understand both the problems we face & the progress that’s possible. 🧵

A chart in three parts showing data on child mortality to make the points that "The world is awful. The world is much better. The world can be much better. All three statements are true at the same time."

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Muhammed Bulutay @mvbulutay.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

This is good news for the field.

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Reposted by Muhammed Bulutay

Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 24/11/2024

lol at last line of caption: "This figure is not intended to suggest that science is a race." The treachery of images! (source doi.org/10.1371/jour...)

Fig 5. Estimated disadvantages for non-native English speakers when conducting different scientific activities. The height of hurdles indicates the
relative length of time taken to read an English-language paper (Reading), to write a paper in English (Writing), and to prepare an oral presentation in
English (Presentation), and the relative frequency of an English-language paper being rejected (Paper rejection) or requested to revise (Paper revision)
due to English writing, for non-native English speakers (Non-native), compared to native English speakers (Native). The values are for non-native
English speakers who have published only one English-language paper (higher value from moderate and low English proficiency nationalities),
compared to the values for native English speakers. This figure is not intended to suggest that science is a race.

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Muhammed Bulutay @mvbulutay.bsky.social · 08/10/2024

Alright, Acemoğlu is also in the information experiments business now.😂 Interesting study about Turkish democracy.

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Muhammed Bulutay @mvbulutay.bsky.social · 06/10/2024

Heidelberg is a mesmerizing city.

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Tatyana Deryugina @tderyugina.bsky.social · 16/07/2024

A few weeks ago, I spoke on a panel about publishing at the CSWEP’s CeMENT workshop. I wanted to briefly share some of that advice here.

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Muhammed Bulutay @mvbulutay.bsky.social · 19/09/2024

This will look cooler when we reach 100 million.

A virtual certificate with text "Celebrating 10M users on Bluesky, #1,353,699, Muhammed Bulutay ‪@mvbulutay.bsky.social‬, joined on Oct 4, 2023"

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Muhammed Bulutay @mvbulutay.bsky.social · 19/09/2024

Google's AI podcast producer NotebookLM is crazy good. We are moving too fast with this AI thing and I am both worried and excited.

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Muhammed Bulutay @mvbulutay.bsky.social · 13/09/2024

I also enjoyed reading this a lot!

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Georg Weizsäcker @georgweizsaecker.bsky.social · 17/01/2024

#Econsky 📈📉: Before the deadline Feb 11, apply for your PhD with us. Intense coursework, wonderful peers and researchers all around you, and a city that's also ok. berlinschoolofeconomics.de/phd-programm...

berlinschoolofeconomics.de

Application

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Reposted by Muhammed Bulutay

Ross Dahlke @rossdahlke.bsky.social · 16/12/2023

Attention begets production: when social media content producers receive more engagement, they increase their production of content, finds Srinivasan combining observational and field experimental data karthikecon.github.io/karthiksrini...

Notes: This figure presents correlations between the attention that a Reddit post receives, as measured by the
number of comments, and various measures of content production by the post’s author over the next week. Each point
represents a one-comment bin, and bars represent 95% confidence intervals. The outcome in Plot A is Plog(score+1),
which is a quality-weighted measure of output. The outcome in Plot B is an indicator for if any posts are produced in
the next week, capturing the extensive margin. The outcome in Plot C is quantity, measured by the count of posts.
The outcome in Plot D is quality, measured by the average score of posts. All outcomes are demeaned by subreddit.

Notes: This figure repeats the difference-in-differences design of Figure 2 for two alternative outcomes. Plots A and
B consider the number of posts per day, an interpretable measure of the quantity of output. Viral producers post
0.068 more posts per day, which is 183% of the baseline of 0.037 posts per day. Plots C and D analyze effects on the
mean score conditional on posting, which is a measure of post quality. Going viral does not significantly change post
quality.

Notes: This figure replicates the difference-in-differences design of Figure 2 on TikTok. The outcome is a qualityweighted of output, where quality is measured by likes per view. Posts are viral if they surpass the 80th percentile of
the likes distribution. In Plot A, each point represents a 1 day bin. Event time 0 is the day that the viral or random
TikTok is created, and is excluded from the graph. Output increases by 0.049 units per day in the 30 days following
going viral TikTik relative to the random baseline, which is 279% increase over the pre-period rate of 0.017 units
per day. Plot B graphs heterogeneity in the treatment effect by the degree of virality. Each point is the output of
the difference-in-differences design estimated on the subset of posts that go viral within a two-percentile band of the
upvotes distribution. Posts in the first viral point received between 94-110 likes (80th-82nd percentile), while posts in
the tenth viral point received more than 3,583 upvotes (98

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Muhammed Bulutay @mvbulutay.bsky.social · 15/12/2023

📢 Job update 📢 I am very happy to announce that I will be joining the Department of Economics at @UniHeidelberg as a postdoc in September 2024! While it is sad to be leaving Berlin, I look forward to starting this new chapter of my life. #EconSky

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 01/12/2023

Consumer prices rose 3.2% over the year on average. Among Americans employed both now and a year ago: - hourly wage growth averaged 6.7%, so an hour of work buys an average of 3.5% more now than a year ago www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-gr...

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Muhammed Bulutay @mvbulutay.bsky.social · 02/12/2023

Unforgettable moment with Ryan Rholes from the high table of Jesus College. Stay tuned for our upcoming project ;)

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Muhammed Bulutay @mvbulutay.bsky.social · 15/11/2023

Hence, I have met my idol 😌🥲

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CRC Rationality & Competition @rationalitycrc.bsky.social · 24/10/2023

#EconSky 📉📈, you can now follow us on BlueSky. We combine methods and insights from behavioral and neoclassical economics to better understand important applied economic problems and reach more robust economic policy conclusions. [1/3] Who are we? 👇

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undercoverhist.bsky.social @undercoverhist.bsky.social · 19/10/2023

Reviewer 2, circa 1150

George of Antioch kneeling in front of Mary, circa 1150, La Martorana, Palermo

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Muhammed Bulutay @mvbulutay.bsky.social · 18/10/2023

Tomorrow I will present the main findings of my job market paper in CEPR's "Central Bank Communication" webinar (organized by Michael McMahon). Sign up and hear from inspiring junior researchers in the field: cepr-org.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

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