Michael Tippett 🎃 @mktippett.bsky.social · 09/10/2026did the AI models do well? bsky.app/profile/bmcn... 000
Reposted by Michael Tippett 🎃Sang-Ki Lee @sklee621.bsky.social · 29/09/2026A new study shows a clear regional divide in future US hurricane landfalls: while tropical cyclone frequency is projected to decline along the Gulf Coast—including Texas—it will steadily increase along the Southeastern US coastline throughout the 21st century. 🌊🧪 ocean2climate.org/2026/09/29/f...ocean2climate.orgFuture Tropical Cyclone Risk in the Gulf Drops while the Southeast Braces for ImpactFigure 1 from Lele et al. (2026). Multi-Model Mean of track density change in the North Atlantic, calculated between future and historical periods for SSP1-2.6 (a) and SSP5-8.5 (b). Stippling shows… 097
Michael Tippett 🎃 @mktippett.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Indeed! just yesterday I was comparing your daily RONI to other posted ones 010
Michael Tippett 🎃 @mktippett.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Our recent preprint examines the impacts of ENSO on US HDDs. Fun fact that I learned: The 1997-98 El Niño (and Enron!) jump started the weather derivatives market eartharxiv.org/repository/v...eartharxiv.orgENSO, weather regimes, and U.S. heating degree days 041
Michael Tippett 🎃 @mktippett.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Nice! Perhaps relevant for ENSO and NMME based predictions agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/... agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com 120
Michael Tippett 🎃 @mktippett.bsky.social · 03/09/2026In a warming climate, relative SST is attractive compared to fixed SST thresholds because theory connects it to tropical convection and empirical results connect it to potential intensity. Vecchi et al. (2008) asked "Whither Hurricane Activity?" about future projections and this is the future now 021
Reposted by Michael Tippett 🎃Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 28/08/2026The 2026 El Niño is second only to 1997 when you account for climate change, but easily first if you leave climate change in. Nice 2026 El Niño article by Emily Becker at climate.us (the former climate.gov killed by the Orange One). 1104
Michael Tippett 🎃 @mktippett.bsky.social · 14/08/2026agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/... 010
Michael Tippett 🎃 @mktippett.bsky.social · 14/08/2026my favorite engagement bait prompt is that Jan-Dec annual averages are a social construct that makes El Niño feel unloved 140
Michael Tippett 🎃 @mktippett.bsky.social · 13/08/2026I worked in building that he designed and this tracks 110
Michael Tippett 🎃 @mktippett.bsky.social · 13/08/2026“El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.“ Go with the pros. Accept no substutes www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...cpc.ncep.noaa.gov 110
Michael Tippett 🎃 @mktippett.bsky.social · 10/08/2026there’s that becket quote about why he wrote in french "Parce qu'en français c'est plus facile d'écrire sans style" 010
Michael Tippett 🎃 @mktippett.bsky.social · 09/08/2026just got back from 10 days there and a rain resistant windbreaker is nice 110
Reposted by Michael Tippett 🎃Lauren Rosenthal @laurenthal.bsky.social · 05/08/2026El Niño usually isn't all bad. It can block hurricanes, even ease CPI in some cases. But in a warming climate, there's a lot of uncertainty about how it will play out - especially if it's the strongest we've seen since 1950. Read free: www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202... /endbloomberg.comRecord El Niño Threatens Fragile Economies Squeezed by WarThe El Niño could be the most powerful in decades, fueling major threats to fragile economies around the world. 143
Reposted by Michael Tippett 🎃Andrew Williams @andrewilwilliams.bsky.social · 05/08/2026I think we should also measure our success by whether what we do "enables people to understand and think more clearly and effectively about the world around us." I think that climate science was *already* struggling to measure success in this way, and the advent of LLMs will make this harder! 151
Reposted by Michael Tippett 🎃Michael Tippett 🎃 @mktippett.bsky.social · 28/07/2026ENSO forecasts from individual models can be “idiosyncratic” and their average tends to be better. Here is the NMME multimodal mean dressed with a synthetic, performance-based 100-member ensemble (with code) github.com/mktippett/nm... 131
Michael Tippett 🎃 @mktippett.bsky.social · 28/07/2026See also: Barnston, A. G., M. K. Tippett, H. M. van den Dool, and D. A. Unger, 2015: Toward an Improved Multimodel ENSO Prediction. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 54, 1579–1595, doi.org/10.1175/JAMC....journals.ametsoc.org 000
Michael Tippett 🎃 @mktippett.bsky.social · 28/07/2026ENSO forecasts from individual models can be “idiosyncratic” and their average tends to be better. Here is the NMME multimodal mean dressed with a synthetic, performance-based 100-member ensemble (with code) github.com/mktippett/nm... 131
Reposted by Michael Tippett 🎃Michael Tippett 🎃 @mktippett.bsky.social · 23/07/2026Come for SVD, stay for the ENSO-conditioned global mean temperature forecasts agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/... 2122
Michael Tippett 🎃 @mktippett.bsky.social · 23/07/2026Come for SVD, stay for the ENSO-conditioned global mean temperature forecasts agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/... 2122
Michael Tippett 🎃 @mktippett.bsky.social · 09/07/2026Synopsis: El Niño abides and will become more so www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...cpc.ncep.noaa.gov 000
Michael Tippett 🎃 @mktippett.bsky.social · 07/07/2026Here is one recipe for computing relative Nino-3.4 in models. Bonus content: plots of the latest NMME forecasts, skill scores, and yes, code github.com/mktippett/nm...github.comGitHub - mktippett/nmme-ensoContribute to mktippett/nmme-enso development by creating an account on GitHub. 110
Reposted by Michael Tippett 🎃Andrew Freedman @afreedma.bsky.social · 01/07/2026A deep dive into the various factors favoring record heat in Europe & the US, including climate change, the jet stream configuration & to some extent, the strengthening El Niño . www.cnn.com/2026/07/01/c... Thx to @kimcobb.bsky.social @michaelemann.bsky.social @mktippett.bsky.social & others.cnn.comCruel summer: Punishing heat waves hit Europe, US, with a preview of what’s to come | CNNSummer has barely started in the Northern Hemisphere, but already it’s offering an oppressive preview of life on a hotter planet. 02914
Reposted by Michael Tippett 🎃Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 26/06/2026Yup. Without warning this morning Columbia University decided that no-cost adjuncts (like me and Ben) at LDEO weren’t wanted anymore. 64721
Michael Tippett 🎃 @mktippett.bsky.social · 11/06/2026New CPC ENSO forecast: 62% and 63% probability of ≥2.0°C during OND and NDJ www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana... 022
Reposted by Michael Tippett 🎃ECMWF @ecmwf.int · 10/06/2026In our seasonal forecast from 1 June 2026, we are introducing the Relative Niño indices. Recommended by @wmo-global.bsky.social, this is an additional measure of El Niño strength alongside more traditional Niño 3.4 SST anomalies. It's expected to be readily adopted. ➡️ www.ecmwf.int/en/about/med... 02813
Reposted by Michael Tippett 🎃Michael Tippett 🎃 @mktippett.bsky.social · 08/06/2026RONI forecasts showing less spread out than ONI ones? Fortuitous error cancelation? Unnamed models (NASA) looking like less of an outlier. All from nmme.earth.miami.edu/figures/inde... 042
Michael Tippett 🎃 @mktippett.bsky.social · 08/06/2026RONI forecasts showing less spread out than ONI ones? Fortuitous error cancelation? Unnamed models (NASA) looking like less of an outlier. All from nmme.earth.miami.edu/figures/inde... 042
Reposted by Michael Tippett 🎃Jorge García Franco @jorgelgf.bsky.social · 05/06/2026How does the GFDL SPEAR Large Ensemble project tropical cyclones to change under warming? Short answer: fewer storms globally, but each is projected to be wetter and bigger. w @mktippett.bsky.social @scamargo.bsky.social Read more in Earth's Future: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.comHistorical and Projected Tropical Cyclone Characteristics in SPEAR Large Ensemble SimulationsTC genesis is projected to decrease, with a poleward shift in activity regions Climatological TC precipitation (TCP) is projected to decrease, while precipitation rate per TC and TCP size increas... 0157
Michael Tippett 🎃 @mktippett.bsky.social · 31/05/2026Both? there seems to be a definition but different threshold? and cme futures for london but I didn’t find an actual quote 100
