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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

For the Colorado River, 2026 is one for the record books--in a bad way. NOAA CBRFC's May 1st (50% exc) forecast now has Lake Powell April-July inflows at 800 KAF, 13% of average, lower than 2002. Powell got 2200 KAF of inflows Oct 1 - April 1, making 2026 an abnormally "front-loaded" water year.

Graph showing the NOAA Colorado Basin River Forecast Center's forecasts of April to July inflows to Lake Powell from 1991 to 2026, with colored lines showing how each season's forecast evolved from January through July. The latest Forecast, May 1st 2026, is the lowest outlook for this time of year since at least 1991, at 13% of average inflows.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

The take-home from this plot is roughly correct: In 2026, U.S. wildfires through March have burned >twice the average area burned. But the "wildfire" dataset shown is based on MODIS sat images and lumps wildfires with prescribed (Rx) burns. Rx burns account for ~2/3 of annual US area burned (1/2)

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

March was...not helpful. NOAA CBRFC's April 1st (50% exceedance) forecast now has Lake Powell April-July inflows at 1400 KAF, 22% of average. Only 2002 (963 KAF) and 1977 (1208 KAF) ended up with lower inflows than that. If dry conditions continue through spring, 2026 could drop below 2002.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 05/03/2026

NOAA CBRFC's Mar 1st official forecast for Lake Powell April-July inflows is out, so here's an update of my "spaghetti" plot. Despite better snowfall in February, the most-probable forecast remains bleak at 36% of average. Even an unusually wet Mar-May would only get us to ~65% of average.

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Reposted by Jeff Lukas

Colorado Climate Center @climate.colostate.edu · 09/02/2026

The mountain snowpack so far this winter is in bad shape. Long-time Coloradans might remember two other terrible winters for snow: 1976-77 and 1980-81. Our latest blog post takes a look at how this year compares to those snow droughts of the past. #cowx

climate.colostate.edu

How does this year compare to the snow droughts of the past? - Colorado Climate Blog

Colorado’s mountain snowpack is in bad shape this year. It’s been extremely warm, and snowstorms have been few and far between. Based on data from the SNOTEL network, the amount of water stored in the...

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

Given the latest NOAA CBRFC inflow forecast for Lake Powell, I dusted off this plot from my Twitter days and updated it. The Feb 1st outlook for Colorado River flows hasn't been this poor in >35 years. Even if wetter weather ahead, bottom-10 outcome likely. h/t @glenwoodrek.bsky.social

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 17/12/2025

The true "why?" of this story is a little buried: This is part of Trump's retaliation against CO Gov. Polis for his recent refusal to pardon state-convicted 2020 election conspirator Tina Peters. An egregiously impulsive and reckless move with far-reaching consequences for the nation.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 08/10/2025

In case you were wondering, this is a completely normal way for a federal department (Agriculture) to communicate the status of its online services during a government shutdown.

Screenshot of a US Department of Agriculture website, the Snow and Water Interactive Map. A large text box at the top of the page reads "Due to the Radical Left Democrat shutdown, this government website will not be updated during the funding lapse. President Trump has made it clear he wants to keep the government open and
support those who feed, fuel, and clothe the American people."

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Reposted by Jeff Lukas

Henri F. Drake @henrifdrake.bsky.social · 30/06/2025

This is fucking insane. Closing these NOAA labs would obliterate our ability to observe, understand, and forecast the Earth System, from weather systems tomorrow to sea levels 50 years from now.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 22/05/2025

Succinct illustration of increasing exposure leading to greater risk and loss. This is in the southeast fringe of the Denver metro area, about 8 mi east of Parker.

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Reposted by Jeff Lukas

50501 Colorado @50501colorado.bsky.social · 21/04/2025

DOGE arrived at NOAA this morning. There was no notice. Joe Neguse is on his way, and Attorney General Phil Weisner will be arriving soon. If there is any way you can attend the Peaceful Protest, please turn out ASAP. 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 09/04/2025

The USGCRP was created by Pres. Bush in 1989 and tasked by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 to coordinate federal research and produce a quadrennial assessment: the NCA. Crippling the USGCRP is yet another abuse of power that undermines our nation's readiness for the future.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 28/03/2025

Agreed--the 'Anthropocene' ship has long sailed, and it doesn't need the stratigraphers on board in order to sustain its mission: Communicating that humans have massively impacted everything on Earth.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

This is beyond insane. The Forest Service's top-notch research arm is vital to managing the nation's National Forests--and to the many public benefits that extend well beyond the forests' boundaries, including watersheds and water supply, wildlife populations, wildfire mitigation and safety...

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

Huge turnout today outside the NOAA building in Boulder (also next to NIST & NTIA, with NCAR just up the hill). Uplifting to be part of it, but also depressing as hell that it's necessary. While there I talked with 3 just-illegally-fired NOAA folks, no doubt there were others.

Photo of people at a protest outside the NOAA building in Boulder, Colorado. Man on left is holding a sign saying "NOAA's work saves dollars and lives" and man on right has sign saying "Stop the insanity". Woman in background holds sign saying "Support federal science"

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 15/03/2024

Great read: CO state climatologist and Wx forecasting guru @russ-schumacher.bsky.social on how modeling and forecasts of big CO snowstorms have improved since the monster March '03 event. While the modeling has improved *a lot* in 20 years, the expertise of human forecasters is still critical.

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 13/03/2024

In @edyong209.bsky.social's excellent photo, we can see that Greater Roadrunners display the warming stripes for their locale--in this case, Arizona. Who knew? #showyourstripes

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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 19/12/2023

The sign of an incorrigible water nerd: I immediately converted the lava effusion rate into both cubic feet/second and acre-feet/day. That's 3500-7000 cfs of lava or 7000-14,000 acre-feet of lava per day which would take 4.5 to 9 years to fill Lake Powell with lava

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