iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Mike Denly @mikedenly.com · 25/09/2026

@juanfeliperiano.bsky.social’s bureaucratic nepotism paper is simply an incredible piece of scholarship. If you have not yet read it, you can find it here:

juanfeliperiano.com

030

Reposted by Mike Denly

Juan Felipe Riaño @juanfeliperiano.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

📰🗞️🔺 Una nueva cobertura de la versión más reciente de mi investigación sobre nepotismo burocrático en Colombia, esta vez en el Diario la República. Según mis estimaciones, el nepotismo burocrático le cuesta a los colombianos más de $1,2 billones de pesos al año www.larepublica.co/economia/la-...

larepublica.co

La “palanca” en el Estado cuesta desde $1,2 billones al año a la economía colombiana

Juan Felipe Riaño, profesor asistente del Departamento de Economía de Georgetown University, entregó los datos tras una investigación sobre nepotismo buroc...

132

Reposted by Mike Denly

Good Authority @goodauth.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Does vote buying even work? Trump offered every American $5,000. But it might not help Republicans in November. Read the latest from @johnsides.bsky.social & Kenneth Greene: goodauthority.org/news/does-vo...

goodauthority.org

Does vote buying even work?

Donald Trump's $5,000 midterm pledge raises a critical question: Can politicians actually buy votes effectively? Research by Kenneth Greene explains the big flaws in this approach.

074

Reposted by Mike Denly

Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

It really is striking how many authoritarian states have ended up in this exact same place, where the leader seizes control of scientific inquiry. Lysenkoism in the Soviet Union, Aryan Physics in the Third Reich, Great Leap Forward (also related to Lysenko) in China.

8527271074

Reposted by Mike Denly

Josh Fawcett Weiner @fawcettweiner.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

New article in @civilwarsjournal.bsky.social on links between rebel funding strategies and governance Rather than crowding out taxation, resource rents are often reinvested in the group, funding the development of governance and tax institutions over time Open access link: doi.org/10.1080/1369...

doi.org

Armed Group Extraction Strategies

Armed groups use many methods to meet their revenue needs. While some existing theory posits that resource rents preclude groups from taxing, empirically, some groups extract both resources and tax...

142

Reposted by Mike Denly

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Unprecedented corruption

315958

Reposted by Mike Denly

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

CBO analysis: The Iran war has cost the U.S. $38 billion as of August 1. That’s >$246 million per day, on average. CBO says the war has raised inflation and global energy prices, citing reduced traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, and says it’ll raise interest rates on treasuries.

37534292

Reposted by Mike Denly

Mike Tierney @miketierneyir.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Love this so much. Should out to my colleagues at @wm.edu AidData. #Data transparency is good.

041

Reposted by Mike Denly

Ryan Enos @ryanenos.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Don't posit a theory that is only interesting because it implies X causes variation in Y, test for a statistical relationship between X and Y, but then say you are not interpreting causally. Of course you are interpreting it causally. That was the whole point of what you just did.

25310

Mike Denly @mikedenly.com · 05/08/2026

Apply to 2 positions on Jobs for Aggies! 1) TAMU Bush School Students: Research Assistant for Lab for Economic Development Research (bush.tamu.edu/research/ins...) ID: 415588 2) TAMU Non-Bush School Students: Grader position for my Quant 1 course: (mikedenly.com/teaching/qua...) ID: 415590

jobsforaggies.tamu.edu

Jobs For Aggies | On-Campus Part-Time Work for Texas A&M Students

Jobs For Aggies - Texas A&M University

001

Reposted by Mike Denly

Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 06/07/2026

Corruption and perversion of the public trust do not serve any “side”. They harm all Americans. Tolerating this from “your” people poisons future efforts to stop it by “their” people. And that cripples the institutions that nourish sustained prosperity for all Conservatives and all Liberals.

0163

Reposted by Mike Denly

Oliver Kaplan @oliverkaplan.bsky.social · 19/06/2026

I shared some thoughts on the broader significance of Colombia’s presidential election - voters decide this Sunday

031

Reposted by Mike Denly

Josh Fjelstul @joshfjelstul.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

The World Cup starts tomorrow! With WorldCups.ai, you can ask any question about the World Cup — about tournaments, matches, countries, players, managers — in plain English and get a data-backed answer with an intuitive, interactive visualization.

A screenshot of WorldCups.ai’s
AI assistant.

011

Reposted by Mike Denly

Richard Delevan @richard.wickedproblems.earth · 23/05/2026

Had fun gaming out w @fgenovese.bsky.social, @lorenzocrippa.bsky.social and @davidrvetter.bsky.social what effect Pope Leo's AI encyclical coming out Monday might have on markets. Have a watch/listen! youtu.be/pTCcM2uEkOI

youtu.be

Pope Leo XIV on AI: Can Popes Move Markets?

YouTube video by Wicked Problems - Climate Tech Conversations

23615

Reposted by Mike Denly

Brian Finucane @bcfinucane.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

The word you are looking for is “corruption.”

23917216

Mike Denly @mikedenly.com · 05/05/2026

Big congrats, Bob--well deserved!!

010

Mike Denly @mikedenly.com · 04/05/2026

Congrats, Ricky! Your achievement is extremely well deserved! I hope you celebrate it well now, and a celebratory drink is on me at the next conference.

010

Mike Denly @mikedenly.com · 03/05/2026

So the article does more than estimate market reactions. It shows how top-down enforcement can help hold together a broader anti-corruption equilibrium. That is a big deal for how we think about corruption, populism, and democratic backsliding. Read the whole piece!

cambridge.org

Making Bribery Profitable Again? The Market Effects of Suspending Accountability for Overseas Bribery | International Organization | Cambridge Core

Making Bribery Profitable Again? The Market Effects of Suspending Accountability for Overseas Bribery - Volume 79 Issue 4

010

Mike Denly @mikedenly.com · 03/05/2026

After Trump suspended FCPA enforcement, investors rewarded firms with prior FCPA histories: markets believed lower enforcement made corruption-risk firms more profitable. In assurance-game terms, monitoring sustained the clean equilibrium; removing it shifted expectations toward the corrupt one.

120

Mike Denly @mikedenly.com · 03/05/2026

So, why is @lorenzocrippa.bsky.social et al's article so theoretically important? In short, it shows corruption can be BOTH a principal-agent and a collective action problem: credible enforcement changes individual incentives, but it also coordinates expectations about what others will do.

130

Mike Denly @mikedenly.com · 03/05/2026

At the same time, a lot of work shows that monitoring-based and incremental anti-corruption reforms can work. In particular, I'd highlight the now growing literature on audits as well as more reform-oriented work, such as the excellent work of @kbersch.bsky.social

cambridge.org

When Democracies Deliver

Cambridge Core - Comparative Politics - When Democracies Deliver

110

Mike Denly @mikedenly.com · 03/05/2026

An implication of collective action approaches is that monitoring alone may fail when corruption is systemic. If actors expect monitors, firms, or officials to be corrupt, incremental reforms may not reassure them enough to shift behavior toward a cleaner equilibrium. Better = big-bang approaches!

100

Mike Denly @mikedenly.com · 03/05/2026

The distinction matters. Principal-agent approaches emphasize delegation, information asymmetries, monitoring, and sanctions. Collective action approaches emphasize assurance-game dynamics: actors may prefer a clean system, but they do not want to be the only ones playing clean: norms matter!

230

Mike Denly @mikedenly.com · 03/05/2026

This @iojournal.bsky.social article from @lorenzocrippa.bsky.social et al. is one of the most important recent pieces on corruption, American politics, and democratic backsliding. It is an empirical research note, but I think its theoretical implications are much bigger. 1/n🧵

255

Reposted by Mike Denly

Michael L. Ross @profmichaelross.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

My new essay, with Rabah Arezki and Rick van der Ploeg, in @foreignaffairs.com. For all the benefits of the energy transition, the world isn't ready to rely on critical minerals

071

Reposted by Mike Denly

Chris Kenny, PhD @chriskenny.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

Given the Callais decision, resharing our (w @corymccartan.com) "Individual and Differential Harm in Redistricting" piece which tries to tackle estimating group harm, including separating partisan and racial effects of maps... osf.io/preprints/so... (conditionally accepted at Nature Human Behavior)

osf.io

OSF

041

Reposted by Mike Denly

Gustavo Diaz @gustavodiaz.org · 23/04/2026

Second, "Experiments on Taxes, Corruption, and Prejudice." Sat, April 25, 11:40am to 1:10pm CDT. Meta-analyses, lab experiments, field experiments! convention2.allacademic.com/one/mpsa/mps...

031

Reposted by Mike Denly

Gustavo Diaz @gustavodiaz.org · 23/04/2026

I am chairing two supercool panels this year at @mpsa.bsky.social. First, "Machine Learning Applications." Fri, April 24, 3:20 to 4:50pm CDT. Lots of stuff about LLMs. Love them, hate them, don't miss them. convention2.allacademic.com/one/mpsa/mps...

121

Reposted by Mike Denly

Katy Robinson @katyrob.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

My article on purging & leader survival in rebel groups is now out in @jpeaceresearch.bsky.social! Open access: doi.org/10.1093/jopr... How do rebel leaders stay in power? While we often study "decapitation" by state forces, internal actors (coup plotters, spies) also threaten leader survival.

doi.org

Rebel purges and leader survival: maintaining power through purges in rebel organizations

Abstract. How do rebel leaders maintain power? In rebel groups, leaders face threats to their survival in office from dissatisfied subordinates, internal r

285

Reposted by Mike Denly

Aditya Dasgupta @adasgupta.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

Cool day of book discussions happening at MPSA, if you're looking for something to attend on Friday:

072

Mike Denly @mikedenly.com · 16/04/2026

Thanks, Ingo! Graham Goff and I have put a lot of work into this package. {DAGassist} can estimate a wide range of models and classify covariate roles after you make your DAG either with {ggdag} or {daggitty}. We hope that the package can make DAG-consistent estimation a little easier for everyone!

021

Reposted by Mike Denly

Danny Hidalgo @dhidalgo.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

We're hiring a Research Support Associate at MIT Political Science. Work with me, In Song Kim, Rich Nielsen, and Naoki Egami on methods and political economy. Great opportunity for those considering a PhD in the social sciences. One-year position with possible extension.

11311

Reposted by Mike Denly

Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 09/03/2026

If you use #QuartoPub for any PDF documents for teaching and you need to meet impending PDF accessibility rules, upgrade to v1.9, add format: typst: pdf-standard: ua-1 to the YAML front matter, and it'll work!

Accessibility score for: evalsp26_01-exam_answers
100% Accessibility score: 100 percent
arrow_drop_up
Perfect!

This PDF has a perfect accessibility score, although further improvements may still be possible. Keep up the good work!

512131

Reposted by Mike Denly

Chagai Weiss @chagaiweiss.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

⏳One month left to nominate papers for APSA's Experimental Research Section’s Best Paper Award! We’re excited to read creative experimental work tackling big political questions. Self-nominations welcome (and discussants, please nominate your panelists)!

064

Reposted by Mike Denly

Miriam Golden @mgoldenprof.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

Five more days to submit nominations for the Margaret Levi Award for the Advancement of Comparative Methodology! A broad and unusual call. Feel free to self-nominate or to submit a nomination on behalf of work that has inspired you.

057

Reposted by Mike Denly

Christina Cottiero @ccottiero.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

🎉I'm excited to share my new article with @cjschneider.bsky.social, now online at International Organization @iojournal.bsky.social: “International Financial Institutions and the Promotion of Autocratic Resilience.” Open access: doi.org/10.1017/S002... ✨🧵thread🧵✨

doi.org

International Financial Institutions and the Promotion of Autocratic Resilience | International Organization | Cambridge Core

International Financial Institutions and the Promotion of Autocratic Resilience

3215

Reposted by Mike Denly

Tom Pepinsky @tompepinsky.com · 04/03/2026

The anti-Trump coalition is a negative coalition, defined by what it opposes. Durable political change requires a positive coalition, defined by what it believes and the principles that will defend. Here is my outline of those principles... and the stakes. www.liberalcurrents.com/the-republic...

From Principles to Politics. Freedom, equality, and fellowship are principles of the republican tradition, in the U.S. and globally. Echoes can be found in liberté, egalité, fraternité ou mort (liberty, equality, and fraternity or death) in revolutionary France, in the revolutionary leader Simon Bolivar’s Letter from Jamaica, and in countless constitutions across the world. These are universal values, and they are also quintessentially American.
The Trump administration’s perversion of these American values explains why his second administration is so unpopular. But its opponents must not repeat the errors of the Biden-Harris administration, which activated a negative coalition to win the presidency in 2020 but failed to secure a durable settlement thereafter. The Biden-Harris administration’s fundamental error was refusing to confront the enemy of freedom, equality, and fellowship as the enemy. Biden and Harris knew exactly the stakes; they warned Americans of what the Trump administration would do if returned to office in 2025. Yet they believed that normal politics was possible, and hoped to turn the other cheek, to bless those who cursed them. “The fever will break,” Biden had been predicting since Obama’s reelection in 2012.
The Nazi propagandist Carl Schmitt was right to identify liberal democracy’s weakness: reducing political conflict to disagreement over economic policy or cultural values. But when the procedures of liberal democracy have been distorted by antidemocratic forces, the liberal’s response to these distortions must be unequivocal. Every liberal—republican, conservative, socialist, Christian, or any other—must draw the line when confronted with lawlessness, corruption, and perfidy by those who abandon freedom, equality, and fellowship for their personal ends. There can be no compromise on these principles.

26518

Mike Denly @mikedenly.com · 04/03/2026

Congrats, Christina(s)! It is awesome work!

100

Reposted by Mike Denly

Lorenzo Crippa @lorenzocrippa.bsky.social · 26/02/2026

Excited to share a new piece, co-authored with Eddy Malesky and Lucio Picci, at @foreignaffairs.com! We return to the Trump administration's decision to suspend (and reform) the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. 🧵: "How Washington Is Weaponizing Anticorruption Law." 1/

foreignaffairs.com

How Washington Is Weaponizing Anticorruption Law

The era of neutral enforcement is over.

1102

Reposted by Mike Denly

Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 18/02/2026

New Blog for CGD: US Aid Cuts Fueled Conflict in Africa www.cgdev.org/blog/us-aid-...

078

Reposted by Mike Denly

Augustin Bergeron @abergeron.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

🚨 I’m hiring a Harvard-based Predoctoral Fellow. If you’re excited about development, political economy, and public finance, apply! ✅ Full-time (July 1 start) 🗓️ Rolling deadline 🎓 Great fit for candidates considering a PhD Apply ➡️ academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/15884

032

Reposted by Mike Denly

Lisa Dellmuth @lisadellmuth.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

Come work with me! Two postdoc positions open in @erc.europa.eu project PROTECT, examining how local change shapes public support for protectionist policies in areas like trade and finance. @stockholmuni.bsky.social su.varbi.com/en/what:job/... su.varbi.com/en/what:job/... #polisky #academicsky

02923

Reposted by Mike Denly

𝙅𝙖𝙘🍩𝙗 𝙉𝙮𝙧𝙪𝙥 @jacobnyrup.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

This is tragic. The World Factbook was a useful resource to make sense of the world as a comparative politics scholar. The dismantling of the US state and its resources will leave a less knowledgeable world.

apnews.com

CIA ends publication of its popular World Factbook reference tool

The CIA is ending the publication of its popular World Factbook reference manual. The agency announced the decision Wednesday but gave no reason for it.

0101

Reposted by Mike Denly

Sabrina B. Arias @sabrinabarias.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

As President Trump withdraws the US from intl agreements - including the Paris Agreement and WHO - Lotem Bassan-Nygate and I ask how this affects public opinion towards cooperation? We descibe our recent findings in @goodauth.bsky.social : tinyurl.com/goodauth @harvardkennedy.bsky.social 1/4

tinyurl.com

When Trump withdraws from global agreements, will the public follow?

When Trump withdraws from global agreements, will the public follow? New evidence shows that Trump’s actions can change minds, but there are limits.

2188

Reposted by Mike Denly

Ryan Jablonski @ryanjablonski.bsky.social · 23/01/2026

A reminder that the deadline for the Political Economy of Aid and International Development meeting (at Georgetown U) is next Friday (30 January). Come to hear and discuss some of the best new work on the political economy of aid and international development.

032