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Michele Guindani

@mguindani.bsky.social
1.4K followers 1.1K following 270 posts

Statistician. Bayesian. Professor, Department of Biostatistics, University of California, Los Angeles. Views are my own. He/Him. linktr.ee/micheleguindani

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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 14h
In chats with collaborators over the past few days, I've seen how poorly generative AI proposes and evaluates Bayesian models. It really struggles with hierarchical modeling and spotting nonidentifiability. Was its training supervised mostly by frequentists? 😉 #Bayesian #AI
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Nature @nature.com · 26/09/2026
Artificial-intelligence systems can generate hypotheses, design experiments and analyse data — but humans still need to decide what makes sense go.nature.com/4hLtEqL
go.nature.com
AI co-scientists are revolutionizing how research is done
Nature - Artificial-intelligence systems can generate hypotheses, design experiments and analyse data — but humans still need to decide what makes sense.
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
There’s more here than meets the eye. AI shows both its potential and its limits: it can make us more productive, but is this the kind of productivity we want? Then again, perhaps Ramanujan would have left fewer results unproved, and Fermat would have needed less room in the margin…
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I always thought and still think that Nicholas Polson is absolutely brilliant. But even the smartest people can sometimes get ahead of themselves… or maybe ahead of their time. Time will tell. wapo.st/4xCaFUf
wapo.st
Using AI, a professor wrote 200 papers this year. Researchers are alarmed.
An online platform removed 257 papers written or co-written by the University of Chicago’s Nicholas Polson after other academics raised questions.
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Delete culture www.nytimes.com/2026/09/20/s...
nytimes.com
White House Moves to Take Control of N.I.H. Grants (Gift Article)
Federal officials are drafting an executive order that would place grants under review by an outside panel, the latest effort to redirect billions of dollars in research spending.
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Joachim Vandekerckhove 🏖️ @joachim.cidlab.com · 06/09/2026
This strikes me as eminently reasonable advice | Reiss, M.V., Adler, S.J., Barrie, C. et al. Improving computational reproducibility in the social sciences. Nat Hum Behav (2026).
rdcu.be
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
"With the growing prevalence of LLMs across fields and in shaping communication, studies have found that they are influencing and homogenizing people’s language, perspectives, and reasoning."
dlvr.it
The homogenizing effect of large language models on human expression and thought
Cognitive diversity, reflected in variations of language, perspective, and reasoning, is essential to creativity and collective intelligence. This diversity is rich and grounded in culture, history, and individual experience. Yet, as large language models (LLMs) become deeply embedded in people’s lives, they risk standardizing language and reasoning. We synthesize evidence across linguistics, psychology, cognitive science, and computer science to show how LLMs reflect and reinforce dominant styles while marginalizing alternative voices and reasoning strategies. We examine how their design and widespread use contribute to this effect by mirroring patterns in their training data and amplifying convergence as all people increasingly rely on the same models across contexts. Unchecked, this homogenization risks flattening the cognitive landscapes that drive collective intelligence and adaptability.
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Digital twins (AI models designed to mimic real individuals) could transform health research. They may be useful for pretesting studies, but using them as substitutes for people still seems premature.
dlvr.it
AI agents not ready to replace humans in behavioral research
A new study finds that digital twins don’t yet replicate the views of the individuals they are modeled after.
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
I may have found the perfect use for Claude Cowork: “Can you close all the apps I haven’t used in two days?” Finally, AI is addressing a real productivity problem, for me: my inability to close anything!
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
This is an important service that ISBA provides to the entire research community
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Another worrisome development for US prominence in research.
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
500,000 comments
dlvr.it
White House Faces Stiff Pushback on Subjecting Grants to Political Review
Academics, city leaders and congressional lawmakers number among the thousands to urge the Trump administration to reconsider a plan to assert more control over grants.
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
I always believed that politics should not decide science. Doctors should be doctors; statisticians should be statisticians; and politicians should not push their propaganda onto scientists. Submit your comments (if in the US) by July 13th, 2026. elizabethginexi.substack.com/p/this-new-o...
elizabethginexi.substack.com
This new OMB Rule Is Bigger Than Science. Much Bigger.
This image was generated by Google AI (Gemini)
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Laura Helmuth @laurahelmuth.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Statement by @sciamunion.bsky.social on Springer Nature's sale of Scientific American and massive editorial layoffs right before a successful union vote is counted. www.wgaeast.org/wgae-scienti...
wgaeast.org
WGAE-Scientific American Union Statement on Springer Nature’s Sale and Layoffs | Press Room
The following is a statement from Writers Guild of America East members at Scientific American on today’s decision to sell Springer Nature and lay off staff: “Earlier today in an all-staff meeting we ...
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Frank Harrell @f2harrell.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Today we celebrate the awarding of the prestigious Rousseeuw prize to the R Core team in recognition of their 30 years of dedicated work on R and in recognition of the massive impact of R on the scientific community rousseeuwprize.org/2026 #RStats
rousseeuwprize.org
The Rousseeuw Prize for Statistics
The Rousseeuw Prize for Statistics is a biennial prize to celebrate outstanding contributions to statistics research.
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PessoaBrain @pessoabrain.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗻 𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝘃𝗶𝗲𝘄 𝗼𝗳 "𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗼𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴" 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻? philosophymindscience.org/index.php/ph... #neuroskyence
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Science Magazine @science.org · 03/06/2026
Biologically immortal sea cucumber tissues may provide new opportunities for ethical aging research in regenerative biology, biomedical research, and tissue engineering. Learn more in #ScienceAdvances: scim.ag/4dMH6sN
scim.ag
Natural tissue immortality: Indefinite survival of sea cucumber explants
Biological immortality of marine tissues offers previously unexplored potential for ethically unconstrained biomedical and aging research.
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Science Magazine @science.org · 02/06/2026
Proposed changes by the Trump administration to rules that govern how federal dollars are spent "would inevitably lead to unlegislated reductions in funding and damage US leadership in science, both in academia and industry," writes H. Holden Thorp in a new #ScienceEditorial. scim.ag/4uK0fBj
Text quote on a black background. The quote reads: "... the White House ... has found new ways to circumvent the will of Congress and starve American science." Below, the quote is attributed to H. Holden Thorp, Editor-in-chief, Science journals.
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Nature @nature.com · 03/06/2026
A decade on from the launch of an ambitious project, it’s time to revisit the reasons for constructing a human genome from scratch, says synthetic biologist Sudarshan Pinglay. go.nature.com/4uRxXVQ
go.nature.com
Why a synthetic human genome is still worth building
A decade on from the launch of an ambitious project, it’s time to revisit the reasons for constructing a human genome from scratch.
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Nature @nature.com · 03/06/2026
We spoke to researchers studying the use of AI in health care to understand which ‘AI doctors’ have shown the most promise so far — and when such tools might take command of medical diagnoses. go.nature.com/4e0xjOx
go.nature.com
How good are ‘AI doctors’ — and will they take over medicine?
Nature talks to specialists about whether people might soon be diagnosed by artificial-intelligence systems.
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 30/05/2026
As the old saying apparently goes, "𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘴𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘬𝘴 𝘴𝘰 𝘸𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘪𝘵 𝘣𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘴 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘵𝘰𝘱, 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘯𝘦𝘹𝘵 𝘰𝘣𝘷𝘪𝘰𝘶𝘴 𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘱 𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘬 𝘪𝘵" www.scientificamerican.com/article/whit...
scientificamerican.com
White House proposes new rules giving political appointees final say on research grants
These proposed Office of Management and Budget regulations would render the federal research grant review process opaque
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Nature Portfolio @natureportfolio.nature.com · 18/05/2026
A Review in Communications Medicine explores Long COVID — which affects more than 400 million people globally — including current knowledge, gaps and future directions for research, diagnosis and treatment. go.nature.com/4unyxtI #medsky 🧪
This is figure 1, which shows a summary of the pathophysiology of Long COVID.
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Nature Portfolio @natureportfolio.nature.com · 18/05/2026
A feature in Nature reports on the growing concern over emerging AI tools in biology. Although they are being developed to help produce innovative drugs and other societal benefits, there are concerns they could also make it easier to create new threats. 🧪
go.nature.com
AI can design viruses, toxins and other bioweapons. How worried should we be?
Scientists are debating whether to limit biological AI software to ward off threats.
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PyMC Labs @pymc-labs.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
The radar plot is the most popular chart in football analytics. It might also be the least effective. Chris Fonnesbeck breaks down why and builds the replacement: dub.sh/BUsCcev #SportsAnalytics #DataViz #Bayesian
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Nature @nature.com · 16/05/2026
Nature research paper: White matter micro- and macrostructure brain charts for the human lifespan go.nature.com/42CNc8z
go.nature.com
White matter micro- and macrostructure brain charts for the human lifespan - Nature
Integration of data representing 35,120 brain scans from diverse global studies enables construction of reference charts that define normative microstructural and macrostructural properties across the human lifespan for research and clinical diagnosis.
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Nature @nature.com · 16/05/2026
“It’s never perfect, and sometimes it gets things wrong and it’s exasperating. But when you’re able to harness that horse, you see the world from a whole new perspective. You can go 20 times faster.” go.nature.com/4fojVGa
go.nature.com
How to vibe code in science: early adopters share their tips
Nature - Using AI coding tools can speed up your work, but there are plenty of pitfalls.
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Nature @nature.com · 07/04/2026
Hundreds of scans hint at how substances such as psilocybin, LSD and ayahuasca alter connections between key areas of the brain go.nature.com/3QamxwN
go.nature.com
Your brain on drugs: different psychedelics work in surprisingly similar ways
Hundreds of scans hint at how substances such as psilocybin, LSD and ayahuasca alter connections between key areas of the brain.
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
I have to say this: please do not keep defaulting to When2meet for scheduling the meetings. For me the big limitation is that it does not sync with Google Calendar or other calendars. Two alternatives that I have liked are WhenAvailable and Timeful. Both allow syncing with Google Calendar.
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Frank Harrell @f2harrell.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Celebrating the draft FDA Bayesian guidance document with our perspective in @jama.com. Honored to co-author w/Jack Lee (MD Anderson), Lisa LaVange (past director of Office of Biostatistics FDA CDER&president of ASA),& my Bayesian inspiration Sir David Spiegelhalter jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
jamanetwork.com
Embracing Bayesian Methods in Clinical Trials
This Perspective discusses the importance of the US Food and Drug Administration’s draft guidance on the use of bayesian methods in clinical trials because it underscores its commitment to modernizing...
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
NIH is ending continuous submission for permanent study section members after August 10, 2026. Given the heavy, essentially unpaid burden of peer review, this change will matter for many NIH reviewers.
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International Society for Bayesian Analysis @isba-bayesian.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
The new issue of the ISBA Bulletin is out! 🎉 isba-bulletin.github.io/ISBABulletin/
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
"Effective US biomedical research is rooted in reliable federal investment" Abrupt NIH cuts in 2025 canceled ~2,300 grants disrupting thousands of projects and disproportionately affecting training and early-career research. www.pnas.org/doi/epdf/10....
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
"Emerging work has identified how AI writing assistants can be biased and how they can influence users’ communication behavior and perceptions [...] AI suggestions can influence people’s attitudes across a range of politically charged societal issues" www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Biased AI writing assistants shift users’ attitudes on societal issues
Biased AI writing assistants shift people’s attitudes about societal issues; common interventions do not prevent this influence.
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗜 𝗺𝗮𝘆 ‘𝗵𝗶𝗿𝗲’ 𝗔𝗜 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝗮 𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗱𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝘂𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁 - "The issue is not whether my students are valuable. In the long run, they are invaluable. The issue is that their value emerges slowly, whereas AI delivers immediate returns." www.science.org/content/arti...
science.org
Why I may ‘hire’ AI instead of a graduate student
“It can competently perform a lot of the work I need immediately,” this professor writes
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
Recording from my talk “𝙳𝚢𝚗𝚊𝚖𝚒𝚌 𝚁𝚊𝚗𝚍𝚘𝚖 𝙿𝚊𝚛𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚒𝚘𝚗𝚜: 𝙰𝚙𝚙𝚕𝚒𝚌𝚊𝚝𝚒𝚘𝚗𝚜, 𝙾𝚙𝚙𝚘𝚛𝚝𝚞𝚗𝚒𝚝𝚒𝚎𝚜, 𝚊𝚗𝚍 𝙲𝚑𝚊𝚕𝚕𝚎𝚗𝚐𝚎𝚜” at the ICERM Workshop: 𝐍𝐨𝐧𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐜 𝐁𝐚𝐲𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 -𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐮𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐈𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐞𝐬 Video: icerm.brown.edu/video_archiv... #BayesianNonparametrics
icerm.brown.edu
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
The Blackmailer-in-chief is maddening himself up again. There’s nothing wrong with Anthropic, except they have a backbone. That backbone which was used to be a symbol of American exceptionalism. wapo.st/4aLHqF6
wapo.st
Pentagon declares Anthropic a threat to national security
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared Anthropic a “supply-chain risk,” blocking all federal agencies and contractors from doing business with the company.
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
Some Universities apparently are not real Universities If you are on the job market this year, take notice. If you are a faculty at those Universities, also take notice.
insidehighered.com
VSU Terminates 6 Professors Without Due Process
Campus security escorted the professors—five tenured and one tenure-track—to their cars and issued no-trespass warnings. They have received no written explanation for their dismissals.
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
I’m pleased to share a recent paper published in Statistics and Data Science in Imaging (2025): “𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬, 𝐃𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐒𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐦𝐞” by Lindquist et al. A thoughtful overview of statistical methods in connectomics, the study of brain connectivity derived from neuroimaging data.
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Happy to announce a new special issue of 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘋𝘢𝘵𝘢 𝘚𝘤𝘪𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘯 𝘐𝘮𝘢𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘨 (a journal of the 𝘈𝘮𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘈𝘴𝘴𝘰𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯) on 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐈𝐦𝐚𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠. 📅 Submission deadline: 𝟑𝟏 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔 💡 𝐍𝐨 𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐥𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐬 More details: think.taylorandfrancis.com/special_issu...
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
Interesting report from The Scholarly Kitchen @scholarlykitchn asking a simple question after the 𝘕𝘦𝘶𝘳𝘰𝘐𝘮𝘢𝘨𝘦 editorial board split and launched 𝘐𝘮𝘢𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘕𝘦𝘶𝘳𝘰𝘴𝘤𝘪𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦: does a journal’s “essence” travel with the editors.
scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org
So... IS the Essence of a Journal Portable? Checking in on _NeuroImage_ and _Imaging Neuroscience_ - The Scholarly Kitchen
How are two competing neuroscience journals faring since the editorial board of one departed to create the other?
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
I feel like this should be the headline of the day
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
“Anyone” can but not anyone “can”
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
15 invited referees, 14 declined, 1 accepted (so far). Could be 𝙮𝙤𝙪𝙧 paper.
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Science Magazine @science.org · 11/02/2026
"The academic structure … makes planning for a family feel like an impossible luxury." In this #ScienceWorkingLife, two postdocs share how, as women in academia, having children can feel impossible—and how talking about it makes them feel less alone. scim.ag/46uBWgD #WomenInScienceDay
A conceptual illustration of multiple people looking to center, with conversation bubbles with baby and academic related drawings inside. Hedline is: As women in academia, having children can feel impossible. Talking about it makes us feel less alone
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Alberto Cairo @albertocairo.com · 11/02/2026
An in-depth article about the Open Visualization Academy in the University of Miami's News news.miami.edu/stories/2026... #dataviz #infographics #dataVisualization #dataJournalism
news.miami.edu
Making sense of data
The Open Visualization Academy—a first-of-its-kind platform recently launched by a faculty member at the University of Miami—offers free courses on designing data-backed charts and maps to communicate...
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Michele Guindani @mguindani.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
Interesting article by @lydiadepillis.bsky.social Prediction markets can be a useful input because betting agents often quickly pull together dispersed information. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/b...
nytimes.com
Thousands of Amateur Gamblers Are Beating Wall Street Ph.D.s
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Amstat-American Statistical Association @amstatnews.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
W. E. B. Du Bois was the first African American to earn a doctorate from Harvard and one of the founders of the NAACP. He pioneered the development of sociology as a scientific discipline, using sophisticated statistical methods and infographics. #BlackHistoryMonth magazine.amstat.org/...
An old black and white photo of W.E.B. Du Bois. He is wearing a dark suit jacket, a white dress shirt, and has short, dark hair with a mustache and a short beard.
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Joe Bak-Coleman @jbakcoleman.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
I have plenty of reservations about the reliability of funnel-plots and z-curves and such, as well as their interpretation..... But holy shit look at that.
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Daniel Ansari 🇨🇦 @numcog.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
New: "Effect of Artificial Intelligence on Learning: A Meta-Meta-Analysis" by Wagenmakers and colleagues revealing evidence for "severe publication bias and extreme between-study heterogeneity" in existing meta-analyses of the effects of AI on learning: osf.io/preprints/ps...
osf.io
OSF
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