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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 10/09/2026

Announcing: the Metaculus Cup Fall 2026 with guest forecaster @kikollan.llaneras.es, data journalist at @elpais.com! Go head-to-head to compete for up to $7,500 in prizes. The first batch of questions includes: Start forecasting: www.metaculus.com/tournament/m... Questions include...

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 04/09/2026

AI is replacing the job of getting yelled at by a landlord. x.com/dollarnuftyn...

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 10/08/2026

A recent episode of Hard Fork (@nytimes.com) takes on the much-debated subject of AI forecasting: "I think it’s actually quite interesting and profound that we now have, in some cases, AI systems that are better than humans at making predictions about the future." — @kevinroose.com (1/2)

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 03/08/2026

One way that forecasts provide value beyond when they resolve is the discussion that emerges around how they resolve. In a recent thread on the platform, we see a great example of this kind of discussion, sparked by a comment left by user A6N23 regarding the question (1/2)

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 09/07/2026

4/ Do you agree with this take? Should we expect to see more governments stepping in to regulate or control AI development?

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 04/06/2026

5/ The Midterms Hub also shows what the forecasts might mean for policy.

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 04/06/2026

3/ The Senate math is tight. Forecasters' aggregate forecast right now is a tied chamber, with the middle 50% of forecasts ranging from a 2-seat Democratic edge to a 3-seat Republican edge.

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 04/06/2026

2/ House: 89% chance Democrats retake it | Senate: 59% chance Republicans retain the chamber Most likely outcome: split Congress; Rep Senate, Dem House (49%)

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 19/05/2026

While headlines about hantavirus have sparked understandable fears of another pandemic, Metaculus forecasters bring a measured, probabilistic perspective to the situation. Our latest update, shared with the CDC as part of our Respiratory Disease Outlook series, examines current forecasts. Quick 🧵

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 20/04/2026

3/ The contest aligned with work they were already doing in Camaines:

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 20/04/2026

2/ Apparently the core group are all members of the Caimanes Student-Managed Equity Hedge Fund at UF Warrington:

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 20/04/2026

1/ We’re not playing favorites, but the data doesn’t lie; @ufl.edu cleaned up in the Bridgewater x Metaculus Tournament, logging not the highest overall score on the School Leaderboard, and doing so with only 14 forecasters. We found an article explaining how they pulled it off—read on!

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 07/04/2026

How will AI reshape the labor market? We just launched the Labor Automation Tournament to forecast how automation will affect jobs, wages, and the workforce through 2035, with $35,000 in prizes for predictions and analysis. More info below!

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 01/04/2026

1/ The Bright Line Watch Tournament has concluded! It included a mix of existing Metaculus questions & ones created by BLW, a nonpartisan watchdog group that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017 (👀 @brendannyhan.bsky.social) Congratulations to all the medalists & prize winners!

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 24/03/2026

There are 2 vaccines on the horizon for tuberculosis, the M72 & MTBVAC. In our “Frontiers in Disease Prevention” series with Coefficient Giving, we’re hosting forecasts about when they will be approved & what the uptake will look like. #worldtbday

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 23/03/2026

We love to see it: check out the heatmap for our newly launched FutureEval page. The red hot section? Our methodology tab. We love that our community cares so much about the how’s and why’s. It’s this energy that makes the forecasts as strong as they are.

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 18/03/2026

ANNOUNCING: Frontiers in Disease Prevention, a new Coefficient Giving x Metaculus initiative exploring how forecasting can help identify and prioritize the most impactful ways to prevent disease. It features questions on tuberculosis vaccines, GeneDrive tech, & micro needle patch vaccines. Link ↓

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 08/03/2026

Metaculus v Polymarket predicting the Iran attack -- @kikollan.llaneras.es in @elpais.com: elpais.com/actualidad/n...

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 12/12/2025

Each question asks whether a specific, observable event will occur: Will executive officials defy court orders? Will journalists be charged under the Espionage Act? Will 10+ presidential affiliates receive pardons? Will US authorities transfer citizens to prisons abroad? 3/4

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 12/12/2025

We built the index with @brendannyhan.bsky.social & Bright Line Watch. 39 forecast questions track scenarios like court defiance, contempt referrals, DOJ follow-through, and transfers to foreign prisons. Together they aggregate into a single metric of US institutional resilience. 2/4

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 12/12/2025

In April, a federal judge found probable cause the Trump admin willfully defied a court order on deportation flights. The contempt probe intensified this week. We've added a $10,000 prize pool to our US Democracy Threat Index. Scenarios like this are exactly what it tracks. 1/4

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 12/06/2025

Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, and the AI Futures team wrote AI 2027, a detailed scenario predicting an intelligence explosion and US-China AI arms race. How credible is the scenario? Share your predictions on their key claims in our new series: metaculus.com/tournament/a...

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 05/05/2025

Compete in the Metaculus Cup 🏆 • $5,000 prize pool for accurate predictions & high-quality comments that convince others • Level up your forecasting skills • Build your reputation • New topical questions each week Get started: metaculus.com/tournament/m...

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 05/05/2025

This administration is implementing policies faster & more radically than even Project 2025 outlined. The POTUS Predictions Tournament helps us understand & prepare for potential scenarios as constitutional guardrails are tested. $15k in prizes. New questions live: www.metaculus.com/tournament/P...

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 31/03/2025

Trump's return has brought sweeping policy shifts and judicial clashes. But where supporters see reform, critics see risks to the democratic order. Make accurate, concrete forecasts in the POTUS Predictions tournament to cut through the noise. $15k prize pool. www.metaculus.com/tournament/P...

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 27/03/2024

How capable will top AI models be in 2025? Forecast: • LLM agents' autonomous replication & adaptation (ARA) abilities • model performance on benchmarks like GPQA & GAIA — in AI Benchmarks, a collaboration with the AI Safety Student Team at Harvard: metaculus.com/project/3054/

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 13/03/2024

Will we see: • An IAEA-like international regulator for AI? • Drexler-style nanotech proven feasible? • Leading AI models evaluated by METR? Forecast in the Future of AI series, based on key uncertainties identified by Arb Research. Start here: www.metaculus.com/project/2907/

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 20/12/2023

🗳️ Which candidate will win Super Tuesday? 🥇 What country will lead the Summer Olympics medal table? Metaculus is launching multiple choice questions: Forecast likelihoods across outcomes & automatically ensure probabilities sum to 100%. Learn more & get started: www.metaculus.com/questions/20...

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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 27/09/2023

We've launched our 3rd annual FluSight Challenge, delivering forecasts to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with returning partner Lehigh University! Your predictions can help public health officials combat the spread of influenza: www.metaculus.com/tournament/f... $5K in prizes (1/4)

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