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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Employment downside surprise, but maybe enough for breakeven? Household survey shows employment below Jan '25 levels #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The term spread and the non-recession of 2024 #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Personal income trajectory revised up... with slight decline in August; employment path continues to diverge from output measures #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

"The Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated notably in September, following two prior months of softening"... #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

10 year yields are up, but so are those for maturities > 4 months... #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

10 year above 5.2% #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Jeff Frankel: "Oligarchy is a symptom, not a cause" #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The capex picture of 2001 looks different now vs. what it did at the time #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Reposted by Menzie Chinn

The Washington Post @washingtonpost.com · 24/09/2026

Nearly 170,000 pounds of meat products are being recalled because they were falsely labeled as having gone through federal inspection. The affected products were produced before Sept. 22 and may have false USDA inspection labels that say “EST. 1363.”

washingtonpost.com

Nearly 170,000 pounds of raw meat recalled for false inspection labels

The affected products were produced before Sept. 22 and may have false USDA inspection labels that say “EST. 1363.”

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Increased US govt bond issuance, & prospects thereof, colliding with lackluster official sector demand (i.e., central banks); Increased deficits due to higher interest rates that are likely to persist indefinitely (r > g) Elevated elevated uncertainty regarding US macro policy mix can't help, too...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

10 year rates (heck all rates) rising, nominal, real #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Refiner cap util at 97.5% for week ending 9/11 #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

2/n: Banning diesel exports would *temporarily* provide some price relief for most of the country, but not for New England. Because pipelines don't run that far north, PADD 1A has to import large amounts of diesel, which means it's competing with a (structurally short diesel) Europe for barrels

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 22/09/2026

Lumaris was started by former Pew researchers to do state level surveys

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

I'm not sure mfg employment is really rising... #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

The State of Working Wisconsin, 2026, fm High Road Strategy Center #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

I use barchart, also free, for NYMEX futures: www.barchart.com/futures/ener... No such free access for dated Brent. EIA reports spot prices for Brent, with a lag.

barchart.com

Energies Futures Prices - Barchart.com

Free Energies futures prices, Energies futures quotes, and Energies futures charts.

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Gasoline, diesel prices up 3.7% and 3.9%, week/week econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Matías Scaglione @matias.motioresearch.com · 21/09/2026

U.S. household-income momentum (year-over-year change) turned negative in August, falling to −0.35%. Real median household income was unchanged over one month and down 1.2% over three months. Dashboard: motioresearch.com/dashboard/ #econsky

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Fed funds above or below Taylor rule implied target? #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Administration priority today: econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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jakemadtown.bsky.social @jakemadtown.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Hey, I was just looking at those numbers too! I think EJ is mixing up some cause and effect. The real reason is inflated margins, and a nice side order of writeoffs from Tax Scam 2.0. It ain't from more business. jakehasablog.blogspot.com/2026/09/more...

jakehasablog.blogspot.com

More reasons behind the profit boom of 2026

We know that as prices went up after war broke out in Iran last February, so did profits and we recently got more evidence of that with ...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Heritage Foundation's EJ Antoni points to corp mfg *aftertax* income surge as proof of mfg recovery #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

IP, mfg prodn below consensus, mfg declines #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Pictures of a diversification (fm official holdings of US Trsys) #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

GDPNow at 5.1% q/q AR for Q3, while GS at 2.3%; #FTxBooth 2026 q4/q4 f'cast at 2% #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Betting odds on a Republican Senate post-midterms collapses (the collapse starts right after US-Iran war begins, with fluctuations) #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Fed funds up, betting is on up by year's end, perhaps twice? #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Brent spot surges, implying further derivatives price increases #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Real retail sales rebound slightly above June peak (ex-gas station sales slightly below June peak) ##conSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

CBO on US-Iran War costs (ex-base repair); 2026 PCE defl inflation 0.5 ppts higher than baseline #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Willem Thorbecke on Chinese exchange rates and export behavior - does the dominant currency pricing paradigm apply? #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Why did oil futures prices decline on Friday, despite Houthi advances/Yanbu news #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Impact of "news" re: core CPI #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

September (prelim) sentiment continues downward trend, as inflation expectations rise #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Wages not keeping up with prices #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Change since 2/27 in yields... run big deficits at full employment long enough, and bash legal underpinnings of government credibility hard enough... #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

It's almost as if...the IMF is not a purely technocratic institution & the domestic political interests of its major shareholders affect its policies & decisions...

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Nick Fleisher @nickfleisher.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

It is a nonstop outrage and embarrassment to be represented by Ron Johnson

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Ten year Trsy yields continue to rise #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

No matter how much they try, conservatives can't deliever on their male breadwinner economy. New post. Industries that already employ women are growing faster, indeed they are the only thing growing overall and still the majority effect since November. newsletter.mikekonczal.com/p/why-are-wo...

newsletter.mikekonczal.com

Why Are Women Over 100% of Jobs Gained Under Trump’s Second Term?

All their effort at a gender vibe shift is in service of a plan that is failing on its own terms.

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Do you believe real rates are high because of incipient rapid growth, per Miran? (Simple) intertemporal optimization vs. empirics #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...