Sign in

Matthew Green

@mattngreen.bsky.social
1.6K followers 254 following 180 posts

Political scientist at Catholic University. Congress, federalism, elections, state (legislative) politics. Contributor to Mischiefs of Faction newsletter: substack.com/@misofact

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Matthew Green
Congress & The Presidency @editors-cp.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Yang Zhang and Xintong Chen’s “Beyond a Linear Relationship: Revisiting Minority Representation Hypotheses with a Semiparametric Approach” explores how changes in minority population size relate to substantive representation in the U.S. House. Read here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Beyond a Linear Relationship: Revisiting Minority Representation Hypotheses with a Semiparametric Approach
Standard methods often overlook non-linear complexities in the relationship between minority population size and substantive representation. To address this, we introduce spline regression and shap...
021
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
This certainly suggests an anti-HFC wave, not an anti-incumbency wave. But it’s also possible the results are due to other factors, e.g. voters rejecting more conservative incumbents in general, or those implicated in the “checkgate” scandal. 4/4 wyofile.com/nine-of-10-r...
wyofile.com
Nine of 10 Republican candidates tied to ‘Checkgate’ lost in Wyoming's primary - WyoFile
The losses were part of a dramatic election upset that saw the Wyoming Freedom Caucus lose control of the House.
122
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Meanwhile, 9 other WY House Republicans ran for higher office. 4 were non-HFC members; only 1 lost (note that two of them were running against each other). By contrast, all 5 HFC members seeking higher office lost their primaries. 3/4
110
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
By my count, 25 WY House Republicans ran for reelection and faced primary challenges. 8 were known to be HFC members; 5 of them lost their primaries (62%). By contrast, of the 11 definite non-HFC members, only 3 lost their primaries (27%). 2/4
110
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Following up from my post yesterday, @wrigleyfield.bsky.social asked whether the Wyoming Freedom Caucus’ primary losses were Caucus specific or were part of a general anti-incumbency trend. 1/4
120
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
This is big news, given that the Wyoming House Freedom Caucus had been - up to this point - one of the largest and most influential of state FCs in the country: cowboystatedaily.com/2026/08/19/n...
cowboystatedaily.com
Near-Total Massacre For Freedom Caucus In Wyoming Primary
Tuesday marked a rough night for the Wyoming Freedom Caucus, as its members and allies fell to a slew of legislative newcomers in the Republican primary…
27811
Reposted by Matthew Green
Andy Craig @andycraig.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Fully *a fifth* of Wyoming house incumbents (13 / 62) lost their primaries in a big backlash against the hard right caucus. Even more as a share of incumbents running (45). I don't have hard numbers for comparison, but that's got to be pretty far up there for any state chamber, historically.
736251
Reposted by Matthew Green
Congress & The Presidency @editors-cp.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Adam M. McMahon's article, "Foreign Policy Scandal, Presidential Impeachment, and Unitary Executive Theory," explores the constitutional and political implications of executive power during times of crisis. Read the article here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
021
Reposted by Matthew Green
Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Election forecasts ask what share of the electorate will vote in November. They rarely ask who is still in the pool by Election Day. A new guest post at Mischiefs of Faction from Jiyue Wang. misofact.substack.com/p/the-2026-m...
misofact.substack.com
The 2026 midterms have a missing-electorate problem
Before asking who will show up in November, ask who is still in the pool
031
Reposted by Matthew Green
Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Wow. Writing about John Leganski's book about Speaker McCarthy, @mattngreen.bsky.social unknowingly validates my forthcoming book on political capital, saying getting elected Speaker means focusing “almost exclusively on “member-to-member connection(s).” 🎯 misofact.substack.com/p/how-to-hag...
misofact.substack.com
How to Haggle your Way to the Speakership
John Leganski’s account of his time working for Congressman Kevin McCarthy sheds some light on why the House GOP has become so difficult to lead.
043
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
In short, it was very unusual -- part 19th century exposition, part Hollywood set, with vibes of American exceptionalism, federalism, and Christianity. 12/12
000
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
There was a strong religious (Christian) presence, including a large revivalist tent (“David’s Tent”) and a Faith & Family pavilion. 11/x
100
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
The fair also featured an area with livestock demonstrations, a booth touting Trump accounts, and a tent highlighting U.S. technology. 10/x
100
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
The booths for states that didn’t participate were pretty sad. 9/x
100
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
I liked the individual state tents. They gave you a passport to get stamped when you visited each state. There was a huge line to get into Florida’s tent, for some reason. 8/x
100
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
The architecture/font evoked the 1890s-1910s, which I thought was cool, even if many of the facades were stapled-on. 7/x
100
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
Also, the food tent was mostly deserted. 6/x
100
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
Interestingly, a small cheering section appeared out of nowhere right before Sec. Linda McMahon spoke. 5/x
100
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
This was a problem for speakers/musicians on the stages. Some performed in front of maybe a handful of people. 4/x
100
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
There were actually more people there than I expected. But the buildings were placed on too much square acreage, which made some areas look deserted. 3/x
100
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
Finding the entrance was a challenge – most of it was fenced in, I guess for security purposes. 2/x
100
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
I finally went to the Great American State Fair on the Mall (on Friday, the last day). My impressions: 1/x
121
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Illinois en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illinoi...
en.wikipedia.org
Illinois budget impasse - Wikipedia
000
Reposted by Matthew Green
Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Nice explainer from @mattngreen.bsky.social at @misofact.bsky.social on some weird behavior by House Republicans. Also, the quote of the week from Rep. Bacon (R-NE). open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
Bicameralism is a Drag
The eternal frustration of trying to get the other chamber to do what you want.
062
Reposted by Matthew Green
Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Bicameralism has long frustrated lawmakers. House Republicans who torpedoed their party's agenda this week are just the latest. A new post from @mattngreen.bsky.social. misofact.substack.com/p/bicamerali...
misofact.substack.com
011
Reposted by Matthew Green
Congress & The Presidency @editors-cp.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
We're proud to see research published in Congress & the Presidency featured in a recent NYT opinion essay on congressional polarization. The piece cites Gary Jacobson's influential work on how polarization among political elites and voters can become "interactive and mutually reinforcing."
021
Reposted by Matthew Green
Congress & The Presidency @editors-cp.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Ryan Bookstein and Kristina C. Miler investigate patterns of party defection in Senate confirmations of executive nominees, offering new insights into legislative behavior and executive-legislative relations. Take a look here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Party Defection in Senate Confirmations of Executive Nominees
Legislative-executive relations are generally portrayed as partisan and combative. The conventional wisdom is that Senate confirmation votes follow party lines, but the reality is different. Based ...
043
Reposted by Matthew Green
Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
@mattngreen.bsky.social writes about the rules of political power that Trump did, and did not, follow last week. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
How to (Not) Maintain Political Power
The rules of power in Washington that Trump did – and did not – follow last week.
001
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
Great point! I knew I'd get push-back on that first sentence. I'd still maintain that Trump has an intuitive sense of power, even if he doesn't always act on it effectively. You (and @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social, among others) are right that Trump loses a lot.
151
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
The rules of political power that Trump did (not) follow last week -- plus a chance to mention the curious end-career of Rep. Matt Martinez (D/R - CA). My latest at @misofact.bsky.social. misofact.substack.com/p/how-to-not...
misofact.substack.com
How to (Not) Maintain Political Power
The rules of power in Washington that Trump did – and did not – follow last week.
021
Reposted by Matthew Green
Congress & The Presidency @editors-cp.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Just released: The first 2026 issue of Congress & Presidency This issue dives into the biggest questions in American governance today - including presidential authority, congressional power, executive privilege, and institutional accountability. Explore it here: www.tandfonline.com/toc/uctp20/c...
tandfonline.com
Congress & the Presidency
Volume 53, Issue 1 of Congress & the Presidency
052
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
I remember a CRS training where they showed Frank doing it to stall for time - sometime in the 1980s I think. I stole the idea in a simulation exercise 😄
020
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
In his memoir, Frank writes that he worried his Thomas Reed-like wit made him look unserious. But I don’t think he could help himself 😄
000
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
To be fair, the MC was trying to be like Frank, who - if memory serves - did not hesitate to do “non-inquiry” parliamentary inquiries himself.
100
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
“The Republican Party has not succeeded at much lately, but they have succeeded in making this debate the most disjointed one possible.” – Mar. 22
001
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
“The gentleman's explanation is a very interesting one, and someday I will figure out what point he was explaining because it is not the issue I raised.” – Mar. 2
111
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Here’s just a few examples of Frank’s scathing sarcasm from floor debates in early 1995: “It is my colleagues on the other side who have decided that States rights is a water faucet, and they can turn it on sometimes and they can turn it off the other.” – Feb. 14
100
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
RIP Barney Frank. In addition to his caustic wit and legislative acumen, he was a master of procedural rules - which proved extremely helpful to House Dems when they became a minority in 1995 for the 1st time in 40 years. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/20/u...
nytimes.com
Barney Frank, Gay Pioneer and Liberal Stalwart in Congress, Dies at 86
21210
Reposted by Matthew Green
Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
There's been lots of proposals offered lately to restore some balance between the branches. For those trying to keep track, @mattngreen.bsky.social has a running list. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
Restoring Balance to our Constitutional System
A running list of reforms.
055
Reposted by Matthew Green
Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
HOUSE FLOOR UPDATE The chamber is paralyzed again. A "rule" backed by Republican leaders would tee up bills to extend FISA Sec 702 (expires tmrw), reopen DHS (shut down for 74 days) and set farm policy. Currently on track to fail due to GOP defections. Vote open for >85 mins.
66019
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
RIP Sen. Don Riegle (D-MI), author of one of the strangest congressional memoirs I've ever read. Even the title is odd.
000
Reposted by Matthew Green
Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Reflections from a political science conference--I expected a lot of chatter about US democratic failures, but there was a lot more consternation about A.I. in the academy. misofact.substack.com/p/the-most-t...
misofact.substack.com
The most-talked-about topic at a national political science conference was not what I expected
Amidst an overwhelming decline in democratic institutions over the past year, political science professors are talking more about AI than the state of affairs in the US.
1188
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 25/04/2026
Save often on your floppy disc
020
Reposted by Matthew Green
Congress & The Presidency @editors-cp.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
“Lawyers as Lawmakers: Professional Expertise and the Conditional Effectiveness of Attorney-Legislators” by Michael E. Bednarczuk explores how professional legal expertise shapes legislative effectiveness under varying institutional conditions. Read here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Lawyers as Lawmakers: Professional Expertise and the Conditional Effectiveness of Attorney-Legislators
Attorneys have long made up a considerable percentage of Congress. While the reasons for their electoral success are understood, little is known about their impact once elected. Using a novel appli...
022
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
(to be clear, I was also acting that way)
010
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
RIP Eliot Engel. I still remember seeing him at a DC reception featuring MLB players signing baseballs - he was like a little kid, in awe of the players & trying to get signatures from all of them. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/n...
nytimes.com
110
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
The next Congress, Dems repealed the rule allowing any one MC to demand a full reading of the Journal, which was what started the whole thing.
130
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
Basically, yes. The “equal time” rule.
020
Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
I wrote about this mini-filibuster in my book on the House minority party. The GOP wanted to kill a bill making it possible for Nixon to debate George Wallace. The session lasted 32 (!) hours.
220
Reposted by Matthew Green
Josh Chafetz @joshchafetz.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
If folks are interested, I've just posted an updated draft of The Chadha Presidency, with revisions accounting for the Supreme Court tariffs case, Iran WPR resolutions of disapproval, and more. ssrn.com/abstract=536...
ssrn.com
The <i>Chadha </i>Presidency
<p><span>Where is Congress? Why hasn’t it reined in some of the worst abuses of the Trump Administration? This Article argues that a significant part of the ans
37025