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matthewsphillips.bsky.social

@matthewsphillips.bsky.social
357 followers 630 following 128 posts
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
This piece on convexity hedging is a chance to re-up one of the greatest quotes that ever appeared in a Treasury market story! From the venerable @jdlahart.bsky.social a couple decades back! (Apparently the speaker was sent to a media training re-education gulag for a while after this.)
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Young Rick Moranis, right?
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Yeesh.
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I didn't know this. From a GS note...
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
That makes sense and seems pretty consistent with the oil futures curve which seems to see $70 US crude by mid-to-late 2029. It just doesn't square with my experience keeping an eye on breakevens at times, which seemed to usually move with oil prices. I need to go back and take a rigorous look.
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
But I thought that was the point of looking at like 5-years breakevens, or even 5y/5y? That's not just capturing a temporary spike, right? Shouldn't it capture some of those drawn out problems, or at least a drawn out, if modest, impact on inflation? Or maybe I'm misunderstanding you.
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Yes, super helpful! So the oil price, in this telling, is more like a signal that this war is far from resolved, requiring more U.S. financial resources, additional issuance, and increasing pressure on the traditional international military and financial alliances — Japan/Europe, etc. All bond bad.
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Real suffering for the people there, but that brutal regime doesn't have to worry about midterms.
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Question! @jc-econ.bsky.social @peark.es (et al) How do we square the this-is-a-real-yield-driven jump higher in bond yields argument, with the T-note's yield correlation to oil prices? (Nice FT chart) Isn't some inflation be embedded in there somewhere? Why doesn't it show up in breakevens?
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Sounds like a line the villains would say while transmitting from their rocket in an old Buck Rogers flick. "Come in, Janus!"
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Scotch and soda, though. Just for nerves.
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
The U.S. Department of Defense now has an equity stake in Venezuela's second-largest private oil producer? I did not know this ... per a great Goldman Sachs note.
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Reposted by @matthewsphillips.bsky.social
Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani @mayor.nyc.gov · 11/09/2026
Shanah Tovah, New York! Wishing all Jewish New Yorkers celebrating a sweet, joyful and meaningful Rosh Hashanah. Here’s to a new year filled with health, happiness and blessings (and yes, even another Knicks championship).
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
But seems to me they're down because of Warsh's Jackson hole speech, which took back some of death-to-forward-guidance uncertainty he previously introduced. But that is about rhetoric, governance etc. Obvs it's not just one thing, economy is strong, I just think other things have mattered too.
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
A bit circular, innit? My goal is just to see if I'm misunderstanding something or just have a different view. If you're looking over the the last year, that's somewhat different than over the last few months, when term premiums have risen — though if you want look since mid-August — they're down.
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
But like everything, it sort of depends on when you start and stop. All the term premiums are up since late June, which kinda roughly seems like when this move started. Although, where does anything really start, one might say.
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
I see what you mean on the 10-year since mid-Aug, just full disclosure this data seems to have ended on Wednesday.
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Am I nuts though, term premiums have been rising right? I mean at least since Warsh's messy speech back in late July that has governance, rhetoric all over it? Or are you kind of just limiting the selloff to the week or so? (Not being a snoot! Interested in a chat!)
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Explored a deep-seated dad anxiety in the newsletter this morning: www.axios.com/2026/09/09/h...
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
I dunno, a lot of that is the dive in German yields, growth differentials and stuff, ongoing euro debt probz, not like credit worries about the US. In my humble.
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Incredible, disturbing photograph by the NY Times' Todd Heisler today.
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Nice chart from Deutsche.
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
As long as we're celebrating pedantry, it's interesting too that this is a particularly Norway based Viking stipulation, as they faced west toward the north sea and the British Isles, etc. Swedish Vikings, headed east, navigated riverine Ukraine and were known as the the Rowing People, the Rus.
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
This might be a tattoo option, though.
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
This is a strangely seedy image.
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Decades later Intel shares are back to dotcom boom levels. But the crazy thing is the forward PE for the stock, far higher than during the craziest moments of 1990s. I was pretty stunned by this.
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
My favorite movie! What a flick!
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Convincing Rivers Cuomo vibes and aesthetic.
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
The TL;DR is to be found in today’s sector set-up in the S&P 500 on Thursday. Pictured below. Staples and utilities up, and of course energy. Consumer discretionary — which is a lot of housing — getting creamed early.
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Perils of being a markets hack: The “markets-are-pricing-in-stagflation” story I published yesterday looks much smarter today. sherwood.news/markets/stag...
sherwood.news
The Iran war oil shock gave the markets ’70s stagflation vibes
These trades suggest the market is pricing in some chance we’ll enter a high-inflation, low-growth economy....
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
Spiciest consumer staples content I’ve seen in awhile...
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
Insane dive from profitability into the red for the former cash cow known as Oracle. The stock is up about 9% today after FQ3 report. Just dunno, how you look at this and feel any confidence in the ROI of the AI data center business.
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Reposted by @matthewsphillips.bsky.social
Jon Keegan @jonkeegan.com · 11/03/2026
NEW: A group of 22 retired senior military officers file an amicus brief supporting Anthropic in lawsuit, including Gen. Michael Hayden (ret), former Director of the CIA, NSA, and DNI. “Taking such a step without firm grounding in law is dangerous.” sherwood.news/power/group-...
sherwood.news
Group of retired senior military officers and Microsoft file briefs supporting Anthropic in lawsuit
Microsoft (MSFT) and a group of 22 retired senior military officers have filed amicus briefs in support of Anthropic in its lawsuit against the...
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
You a Parry Gripp guy?
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Timothy Snyder @timothysnyder.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Reporter seeking freedom of speech in the US arrested for exercising freedom of speech in the US
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Per Goldman, 70% of S&P 500 companies are mentioning AI on Q4 earnings calls. But just 1% are quantifying the technology’s impact on earnings. That gap underscores why people have gotten a bit jittery about the ROI on the hundreds of billions hyperscalers are spending on data centers.
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Somebody should write a novel about a despondent accountant entitled “Useful Life” ...
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
Out of control sycophancy seems to be a defining feature of our culture. Even for AI. sherwood.news/tech/report-...
sherwood.news
Report: OpenAI shuttering 4o model due to sycophancy that was hard to control
Dedicated users found the 4o model offered affirmation and support, while the company found the model’s sycophancy hard to mitigate....
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
The press has been yapping about risks of CLOs and BDCs, for years. (And I include myself in that, see below.) But this chart is pretty interesting in light of the software crunch in the market lately. www.nytimes.com/2018/10/19/b...
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Jon Keegan @jonkeegan.com · 06/02/2026
In the near future we will hoard SD cards and use them as currency. From @matthewsphillips.bsky.social sherwood.news/markets/for-...
a parabolic move for memory (line chart)
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Thanks man!
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Also, World War II was pretty decent for the job market if one remembers correctly. (I know, a stupid point, but still.)
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Joseph Cox @josephcox.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
New: meet ELITE, the Palantir app ICE is using to find neighborhoods to raid. Map interface; officers search for immigrants; click person to bring up individual dossier. This is clearest link between what Palantir is building and ICE's activities on the ground yet www.404media.co/elite-the-pa...
404media.co
‘ELITE’: The Palantir App ICE Uses to Find Neighborhoods to Raid
Internal ICE material and testimony from an official obtained by 404 Media provides the clearest link yet between the technological infrastructure Palantir is building for ICE and the agency’s activit...
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
Do people check and/or respond to work email any more? If you don’t have a cell number to text, how do you reach out to speak to somebody new? Would love to hear reporter suggestions and or tips.
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
Great Ben Snider chart from Goldman equity note this week. Stocks are already hitting more extreme levels on concentration, valuation and rally magnitude than during 1929. Is ‘26 to be a blow-off top year?
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Money sometimes sleeps: www.nber.org/papers/w34267
nber.org
Dynamic Competition for Sleepy Deposits
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
The deference to public officials is infuriating.
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 31/12/2025
So sad. Loved this guy’s work. Sheeeee-it.
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Reposted by @matthewsphillips.bsky.social
Luke Kawa @ljkawa.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
Read @jonkeegan.com on Hyperion: Tax “breaks afforded to Meta on just the sales tax of GPUs would come out to more than $3.3B” Equal to: -33 new high schools -public teacher salaries for > 1Y -more than 7 years of the Louisiana State Police budget sherwood.news/tech/hyperion/
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matthewsphillips.bsky.social @matthewsphillips.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
Just wondering if there’s ever been a software analyst on Wall Street that used “Saasquatch” as a titular pun on a note.
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