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Martin Wermuth

@martinwermuth.bsky.social
1.2K followers 510 following 241 posts

Father, #S4f Mainz Wiesbaden, #overshoot, #climatecatastrophe, #history, #worldpolitics

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Reposted by Martin Wermuth
Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
There’s a debate going on over on X. Which metric to use when talking El Niño. It’s complicated. Let’s start here. This is the excess heat available to each event. Clearly 2026 is far ahead (32% more excess heat than 1997). But that doesn’t tell the whole story. The reason we use the relative index
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 30/09/2026
Wednesday El Niño update - The explanation for why SSTs are still at record high levels in the Niño 3.4 region is because of both climate change + El Niño. Far-reaching ENSO teleconnections are more dependent on temperature gradients, & relative SSTs are actually more similar to other strong events.
Line graph time series of daily sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino3.4 region. Years are shown from 1982 to 2025 in shades of blue to light yellow, and 2026 is shown in red. Climatologically, the largest anomalies are during the boreal winter in terms of magnitude. Data is from OISSTv2.1. Map of September 28, 2026 average sea surface temperature anomalies in the ENSO monitoring regions. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1 with anomalies relative to a 1991-2020 baseline.Graphic showing the 2-week change in sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean from September 14, 2026 to September 28, 2026. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1Graphic showing the 4-week change in sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean from August 29, 2026 to September 28, 2026. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 23/09/2026
Your 'moment of doom' for Sept. 23, 2026 ~ Oops! "One recent paper suggested that, for any given level of emissions, we should expect about 25 percent more warming — enough to bring a three-degree forecast above 3.5 degrees and a four-degree forecast to five degrees."
nytimes.com
Opinion | Climate Catastrophe Is Still on the Table
Harrowing temperature increases remain unnervingly possible.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 20/09/2026
Breaking News! Code FUBAR!!! Yesterday's Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly (preliminary) was a record 3.047°C above the 1991-2020 baseline, beating the previous record of 3.034°C set on November 19, 2015. It will take about 2 weeks to verify. Stay tuned!
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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 12/09/2026
The Gargantuan Climate Lie, Climate Chat with Adam McKay @ghostpanther.bsky.social @yellowdotstudios.bsky.social
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the Juice Media @thejuicemedia.com · 07/09/2026
Our latest Honest Government Ad is now also on YouTube. This extended version includes the insane story of California's forest offset program, which set aside 6M offset credits to compensate for a century of wildires for the next 100 years. And wildfires torched 11M offset credits in just 1 decade
youtube.com
Honest Government Ad | Bulls*it™
YouTube video by thejuicemedia
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wemeze @wemeze.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
#AfD @mquent.de
»Die Illusion, Deutschland habe aus dem Nationalsozialismus ein für alle Mal gelernt, liegt in Trümmern. Das moralische Tabu verliert an Wirkung, darum kommt es nun auf die Institutionen an: Das Grundgesetz wurde nach dem Nationalsozialismus ausdrücklich als wehrhafte Demokratie konstruiert. Es kennt Instrumente gegen Kräfte, die die freiheitliche demokratische Grundordnung beseitigen wollen - bis zu Parteiverbotsverfahren oder Bundeszwang.« Matthias Quent
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Margarete Rosalind Weidenhammer @margareterosali.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Tangwa Abilu.🌿🌏🌾🍀🍃.SDG's. @abilutangwa.bsky.social Stop asking what YOU can do for the climate. Start demanding what SHELL, TOTAL and 100 other corporations will do to PAY for the damage. #climateemergency
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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 09/08/2026
Climate Chat with George Tsakraklides is now live! On his new book: 'The Biology of Collapse' Please join and share: www.youtube.com/live/Jqf5phO...
youtube.com
Live with RestrThe Biology of Collapse with George Tsakraklides
YouTube video by Climate Chat
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Esheru @esherukweku.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
This is Britain, under a Labour government.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 09/08/2026
Here are the Nino 3.4 anomalies from 1982 through the end of 2026, using CFSv2 data to include the forecast for the rest of the year. Anything in red is "the future."
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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
Free weekend update is out. This week a detailed analysis of a Trump con, which the press fell for entirely. He always knew Ukraine was dependent on Patriots, and used that leverage to harm Ukraine. He had no intention of letting Ukraine have a Patriot license… open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
open.substack.com
Weekend Update #197: Anatomy Of A Con:
The Overreaction In the Press: Ukraine Has Not Gone From Winning To Losing
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National Emergency Briefing @nebriefing.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
NEB food expert Prof Paul Behrens interviewed by @owenjones.bsky.social. Why Britain is heading towards a food crisis unless we change direction urgently. To find out more, watch the People's Emergency Briefing film: www.nebriefing.org/screening-map #NationalEmergencyBriefing #TimeToStepUp #PEBuk
youtube.com
Britain Is on a “Pathway to Collapse”, Expert Warns
YouTube video by Owen Jones
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 01/08/2026
Breaking News! Code: Bonkers! As of July 31st, Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperatures are now 2.48°C above the 1991-2020 baseline and more than 1.15°C above the previous daily high. The Climate Casino took the "Over" on 2.5°C by August 1st. Stay tuned!
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 01/08/2026
Up it goes 🫣 Climate indicator from zacklabe.com/climate-chan...
Graph showing daily global mean sea surface temperatures for 2026. This is also compared to the daily data from the 1981-2010 average and 1991-2020 average. Annotations are also shown to the current year with the other years from 1940 to 2026. There is a seasonal cycle. There is a long-term warming trend. 2023 and 2024 are also indicated, which were the warmest years on record. Data is from ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis and updated through 30 July 2026.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 24/07/2026
Your 'doom quote' for today: “I don’t think we’re out of time but I think we’re getting dangerously close to when we might be out of time. We will see [from the IPCC] a very, very clear warning that unless we act now, we will unfortunately be out of time.” www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
We’re on the brink of catastrophe, warns Tory climate chief
Cop26 meeting is last chance, says Alok Sharma as he backs UK’s plan for new oil and gas fields
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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 24/07/2026
Apparently @eaterofsun.bsky.social wasn't aware that the 0.27°C/dec is a model result. I think very few journalists have asked how this number was produced. Also: "rate of warming in a given year is the trend centred on the preceding decade (i.e. it lags 5 years behind present day)"
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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 24/07/2026
For those who can't access the website (I couldn't were I'm at), please use: yellowdotstudios.com/elninowarning/
yellowdotstudios.com
El Niño Warning Letter | Public officials: Stop ignoring, start preparing.
This El Niño is a public safety emergency. Join the open letter from scientists, meteorologists, and concerned citizens.
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Adam McKay @ghostpanther.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
YellowDot released this letter today calling for disaster preparedness for the heat jump this El Niño will bring. It’s signed by scientists, meteorologists, climate writers, concerned citizens & was sent to every Governor, major city Mayor, international Mayors. Sign + share if you can.
Letter outline the threats that will occur as a result of this looming historic El Niño will bring.
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Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf @rahmstorf.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
Responsible politicians need to act now, despite uncertainties, as they do for other security risks. For we won’t have scientific certainty until it’s too late. #AMOC www.bbc.com/news/article...
bbc.com
After record heat, could the Atlantic make Britain's weather even more extreme?
As temperatures rise, scientists are investigating whether a changing Atlantic could bring more volatile weather to the UK
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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 19/07/2026
And I can't state this enough: Our estimates of high climate sensitivity are based on the best estimates of available observations. There is a high probability (from a risk perspective) that climate sensitivity is even higher than our seemingly 'higher' (than e.g. IPCC's +3°C for 2xCO₂) estimates.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 18/07/2026
Your 'moment of doom' for July 18, 2026 ~ Bonkers alert! "Civilization is currently living through break-neck climate change. It’s reflected in erratic climate system behavior. The entire global system has gone bonkers, unpredictable, ecosystems threatened everywhere."
counterpunch.org
Shocking Revelations Out of West Antarctica
It’s mid-winter but a large area of West Antarctica that should be frozen solid is not frozen. What’s up? Antarctica is the coldest spot on the planet
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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 18/07/2026
We had a great talk with Jeff. Please watch and share:
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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 18/07/2026
Trump might want to know that the cumulative CO₂ emissions from the USA help fuel the fires of Canadian forest ( CO₂ + H₂O + sunlight > carbohydrates, as kids learn in highschool). See graph form our @drjamesehansen.bsky.social et al. 2023 Global warming in the pipeline paper:
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Reinhard Steurer @steurer.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
In der Realität zeichnet sich das Gegenteil ab. Warum? Weil wir das omnipräsente Thema Verlust den Rechtsextremen überlassen. Die bearbeiten es toll destruktiv. Eine konstruktive Beschäftigung mit Verlust findet nicht statt weil, hey, es wird doch alles wieder besser. Optimismus 🎉 (statt Realismus).
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Kees van der Leun @sustainable2050.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Think 39°C is hot? True, but in Dehloran, city of 33,000 in eastern Iran, it was 52°C today. That's umm... different. (126F, in US units)
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Christoph Bautz @christophbautz.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
Die nächste #Hitzewelle ist da - und in Frankreich zerstört sie schon wieder Landwirtschaft, Infrastruktur und Leben. Aber die Regierung macht mit dem #Heizungsgesetz einen Kniefall vor der fossilen Lobby und bremst den Ausbau der Erneuerbaren Energien. Wie sollen wir das unseren Kindern erklären?
Ein Bild einer Karte von Europa auf der die Temperaturen in Farbtönen dargestellt sind. Große Teile von Frankreich sind dunkelrot bis grau-weiß. Darüber der Text: "At this moment, it is hotter in France than on 98,8% of the planet."
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James O’Brien @mrjamesob.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
And there it is… www.desmog.com/2026/04/30/r...
desmog.com
Revealed: Reform’s £24 Million from Fossil Fuel Interests
Reform UK has received £24 million from oil and gas interests, accounting for more than two thirds of its total income, DeSmog can reveal. Led by Nigel Farage, the party is calling for new North Sea o...
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Roger Hallam @rogerhallam.com · 10/07/2026
Professor Rockström just confirmed what got me called a liar five years ago on Hard Talk. One billion lives threatened at 2°C. Half of that is 500 million dead. That is 10 World War IIs. Millions resisted for one. So what are we waiting for?
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Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf @rahmstorf.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Juni: Schlimmste Hitzewelle in Westeuropa seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen. Neuer Hitzerekord in Deutschland. RKI meldet über 5000 Hitzetote in 🇩🇪. Die Bundesregierung so: lasst uns den Klimaschutz abschwächen und weiter mit Öl und Gas heizen! Haben diese Menschen noch Mitgefühl?
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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 09/07/2026
"This repetitive pattern could nudge El Niño's peak intensity toward the higher-end scenarios." Ben Noll That's the higher-end of these already record high scenarios.. El Niño peaking at 4.5°C above the 1991-2020 average would be diabolical, to use the scientific term.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 08/07/2026
Breaking News! Code: y-axis alert. Nino 3.4 SST is now up to 3.63 SD above the 1991-2020 baseline, about 1-in-7000 in the absence of anthropogenic warming. There's not enough room in a single post to express just how crazy this is. Please read: climatecasino.substack.com/p/some-monst...
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 06/07/2026
Breaking News! Code: y-axis alert! As of July 5th, the Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly has now crossed 1.80°C above the 1991-2020 mean. ' The Nino 3.4 SST is now 3.46 standard deviations above the 1991-2020 mean:
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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Last night Ukraine could not intercept a single Russian ballistic missile. The USA deliberately starving Ukraine of Patriot missiles is now clearly understood by the Russians as American support for their terror bombing. The USA is helping Putin kill Ukrainians.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 02/07/2026
I just signed up for this, and got 3 extra tickets for my guests. Sure hope I can make it. I'd hate to waste the tickets. freedom250.org/celebration/...
freedom250.org
Salute to America Celebration & Fireworks - Freedom 250
Every generation gets one moment that they remember for the rest of their lives. In 2026, generations of Americans will look up at the sky and remember the incredible sights of the 250th anniversary. ...
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Raw Story @rawstory.com · 30/06/2026
For over a week, #ElonMusk has demanded a "single name of someone" whose death was attributed to DOGE cuts to U.S. federal aid. When thousands of responses came in, Musk became notably silent. #DOGE
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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
It’s official. This is #Europe’s most severe #heatwave on record, as per a study by World Weather Attribution. It was found to be “virtually impossible” just 50 years ago, and made 3.5°C/ 6.3°F hotter than it would’ve been in 1976. Link to study in thread…
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Mel Aura @melaura.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
"Das Argument, ein Verbotsantrag werde scheitern, ist nach unserer Einschätzung nicht mehr haltbar." Tja liebe Union ihr habt keine Ausrede mehr!
Die AfD ist laut einem Rechtsgutachten verfassungswidrig
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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 25/06/2026
It takes a lot of heat to increase the temperature of water and land. That causes a delay of decades between greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings, and temperature and weather impacts. Despite these records, we've ain't seen nothing yet.
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Sebastian Seiffert @sci-ffert.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 18/06/2026
Today's Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature update, data care of OISST v2.1. The records continue, now at 19 consecutive new record daily highs, with the temperature on June 17th more than 0.58°C above the previous record daily high. The Climate 8-Ball has gone into its bunker.
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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Just a friendly reminder. If the US had taken only a small fraction of the money and military equipment it has squandered fighting and losing to Iran, and instead helped Ukraine, the Middle East would be more stable and Russia would be facing defeat.
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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Hi All, we now have an official text of the USA-Iran MOU from the US point of view. It is extraordinary. The US is in a far weaker position than before it started this war fewer than four months ago. Here is a free, blow-by-blow description why. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
open.substack.com
Midweek Update #15: The MOU Is Out
Hi all,
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Ryan Mac 🙃 @rmac.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
I've reported on Musk for around 8 years. I've co-authored a book on him. I don't think folks understand the rate of his wealth accumulation. Shortly after he helped elect Donald Trump in Nov 2024, his net worth was around $350 billion. That net worth has nearly tripled in less than two years.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 12/06/2026
Region Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperatures are in record territory, approaching 3 standard deviations above the 1982-2011 mean, an anomaly that has never happened before in recorded history. The Climate 8-ball says: "four!"
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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
It’s official: El Niño has arrived… and odds are it may be the strongest in over a century! So how does it compare to other strong El Niño events? And what kind of impacts can we expect in Hurricane Season and into the winter in #Florida and along the Gulf Coast. Here’s a quick breakdown. #ElNino
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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
The US is reducing its military footprint in Europe to the degree that it will do nothing to defend NATO states against Russia, but enough that the Trump administration will hope that it can still bully democratic Europe. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/12/w...
nytimes.com
U.S. Plan Is Said to Pull a Third of Fighter Jets It Provides NATO for Europe
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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Breaking: El Niño begins! NOAA has officially declared the start of El Niño today. After months of anticipation, the criteria has been met with East Pacific Ocean Temps rising at a record pace. The models have been consistently advertising a “historic” event, very possibly the strongest on record.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 11/06/2026
For those who want a side-by-side comparison ..
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