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Martha Gimbel

@marthagimbel.bsky.social
7.3K followers 235 following 205 posts

Sometimes Econ, sometimes rants, sometimes both. Current Budget Lab at Yale, former CEA, JEC, DOL, SF, Indeed.

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Matt Darling @besttrousers.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
@marthagimbel.bsky.social
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Schmigadoon is perfect
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mary childs @marychilds.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
want to hang out with me and @marthagimbel.bsky.social for 40m? i know, not long enough www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nQh...
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mary childs @marychilds.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
this week i got to talk to @marthagimbel.bsky.social about our shared favorite topic/disease: US government debt www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nQh...
youtube.com
America Is Living On Borrowed Trust
YouTube video by Mary in America
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The Bulwark @thebulwark.com · 10/07/2026
In today's Receipts LIVE in a few minutes at 12:30pm ET, join @crampell.bsky.social and special guests Natasha Sarin and @marthagimbel.bsky.social talking the week's biggest economic and financial news:
lnk.thebulwark.com
BREAKING: Trump Shivs GOP Congress, Refuses to Sign Bipartisan Housing Bill | Receipts Live
Join Catherine Rampell and special guests Natasha Sarin and Martha Gimbel as they cover the week's biggest economic and financial stories.
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Stacey Vanek Smith @svaneksmith.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
If the U.S. were a company, would you invest in it? From profits and losses to employee satisfaction, when it come to USA Inc, is it buy, sell, or hold? @bradstone.bsky.social and I talk with @marthagimbel.bsky.social this week on Everybody’s Business from @bloomberg.com #economy #unemployment
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Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Is A.I. creating jobs or killing them? Adding to inflation or fixing it? Boosting productivity or doing little? Nobody knows. And our data (public & private) isn't providing clear answers. My latest on the A.I. data gap and the challenge it poses for policymakers: www.nytimes.com/2026/07/02/b...
nytimes.com
A.I. Is Reshaping the Economy. Good Luck Measuring How.
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Rich Prisinzano @richpriz.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Carried Interest has been a talking point in tax policy for at least 20 years. It is often viewed as a loophole that if closed would bring in revenue. At the @budgetlab.bsky.social we revisited the revenue implications of carried interest proposals with new tools.
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Galen Druke @galendruke.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
NEW POD: What The Iran War Did To The Economy w/ @marthagimbel.bsky.social. When we last checked in on the economy, on Feb 23, we were talking about a soft landing and a well-balanced macroeconomy. Five days later, we went to war with Iran. Here's how things have changed...
gdpolitics.com
What The Iran War Did To The Economy
In February, the economy looked well balanced. Since then, inflation has spiked.
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Sirens: A Bombshell Production @sirenspod.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
Do you have a favorite backronym, a rom-com explanation of the Straits of Hormuz crisis, or an obsession with the national debt? This episode, welcoming @marthagimbel.bsky.social, is for you! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/b...
podcasts.apple.com
SAVE Act, VOA, and the Deficit
Podcast Episode · Sirens: A Bombshell production · March 20 · 1h 1m
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Chad P. Bown @chadpbown.com · 26/03/2026
How to Win a Trade War and....COFFEE? If you too like coffee, @barnesandnoble.com has a special 25% off deal on pre-orders with the code PREORDER25. The deal ends TODAY, so pre-order How to Win a Trade War now! 📚 👉 www.barnesandnoble.com/w/how-to-win... #BNPreorder
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Este Griffith @esteg.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
What do we know about AI’s impact on the labor market? Learn more TODAY! Join @hamiltonproject.org, Peter Orszag, @jedkolko.bsky.social, @marthagimbel.bsky.social, Bharat Chandar, and @bencasselman.bsky.social as they dive into the data: www.hamiltonproject.org/event/unders...
hamiltonproject.org
AI + work: Understanding AI’s impact on the labor market - The Hamilton Project
On March 10, the Budget Lab at Yale, The Hamilton Project, and Peterson Institute for International Economics will host an event on AI’s impact on the labor market.
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Este Griffith @esteg.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
What do we know about AI’s impact on the labor market? On March 10, Peter Orszag, @jedkolko.bsky.social, @marthagimbel.bsky.social, Bharat Chandar, and @bencasselman.bsky.social an.bsky.social will dive into the data and what we know: www.hamiltonproject.org/event/unders...
hamiltonproject.org
AI + work: Understanding AI’s impact on the labor market - The Hamilton Project
On March 10, the Budget Lab at Yale, The Hamilton Project, and Peterson Institute for International Economics will host an event on AI’s impact on the labor market.
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The Hamilton Project @hamiltonproject.org · 03/03/2026
What do we know about AI’s impact on the labor market? On March 10, Peter Orszag, @jedkolko.bsky.social, @marthagimbel.bsky.social, Bharat Chandar, and @bencasselman.bsky.social will dive into the data and what we know:
hamiltonproject.org
AI + work: Understanding AI’s impact on the labor market - The Hamilton Project
On March 10, the Budget Lab at Yale, The Hamilton Project, and Peterson Institute for International Economics will host an event on AI’s impact on the labor market.
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Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Really looking forward to this event, in which we'll try to tackle one of the most important questions in the economy right now: What does A.I. mean for the labor market, both now and in the near future? Join us next week! www.hamiltonproject.org/event/unders... #EconSky
hamiltonproject.org
AI + work: Understanding AI’s impact on the labor market - The Hamilton Project
On March 10, the Budget Lab at Yale, The Hamilton Project, and Peterson Institute for International Economics will host an event on AI’s impact on the labor market.
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
Just so the Econ crew is aware - the homeowner here is Leo Feler
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
If you know someone who might fit the bill - please send them our way! Happy to answer any questions.
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
Hi all! We're still waiting on the official posting - but @budgetlab.bsky.social is looking for a new macro hire to add to our team! We're agnostic on level (Recent PhD, decades of experience, MA+ research experience, who knows?) - we care more about flexible thinking and curiosity
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
My take is: Did we lose exactly 30k jobs in September? Almost certainly not. Did we lose some jobs in September? Plausibly! Did we add enough jobs in September to keep up with population growth? Seems quite unlikely.
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
And thanks to Claire Jones and @financialtimes.com for the coverage: www.ft.com/content/c9f9...
ft.com
AI is not killing jobs, US study finds
Research shows little evidence that cutting-edge tech such as chatbots is putting people out of work
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
The full piece is here, please give it and all of its many many graphs a read budgetlab.yale.edu/research/eva...
budgetlab.yale.edu
Evaluating the Impact of AI on the Labor Market: Current State of Affairs
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
Thanks to @mollykinder.bsky.social @brookings.edu for being such wonderful partners on this and to Josh and Maddie for objectively doing all the work
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
We plan to update this every month (assuming we get the CPS microdata!) and also to adjust our methodology in response to feedback/new data on usage/exposure. /end
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
The lack of widespread impacts at this early stage is not unlike the pace of change with previous periods of technological change. Preregistering areas where we would expect to see the impact and continuing to monitor monthly impacts will help us distinguish rumor from fact. 14/
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
While generative AI looks likely to join the ranks of transformative, general purpose technologies, it is too soon to tell how disruptive the technology will be to jobs. 13/
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
While anxiety over the effects of AI on today’s labor market is widespread, our data suggests it remains largely speculative. The picture of AI’s impact on the labor market that emerges from our data is one that largely reflects stability, not yet major disruption. 12/
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
We should note that data in this space is still imperfect, and usage/exposure is still evolving. Here is a comparison of OpenAI and Anthropic's measures of exposure and usage for instance 11/
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
And also duration of unemployment 10/
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
We see a similar story using Anthropic's usage data for both automation and augmentation in employment... 9/
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
And more exposed workers aren't accounting for a greater share of longer-term unemployed workers 8/
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
So far there's no sign that relatively more exposure to AI is at all impacting the share of employment in those occupations 7/
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
We then look at employment shares and unemployment by duration among workers who are more or less exposed to AI (according to OpenAI) and whose occupations have more or less usage (automated or augmented) according to Anthropic 6/
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
If we look at how similar the occupational mix of recent college graduates is to slightly older college graduates - there may be some sign that the difference is growing? But that could be due to 1) noise 2) non-AI factors (such as a slowing labor market), not just AI 5/
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
In fact, taking a closer look at recent years, the data suggests that this recent trend is not necessarily attributable to AI (Figure 2). Shifts in the occupational mix were well on their way during 2021. 4/
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
Although recent trends seemingly outpace historical shifts in the occupational mix, the potential effects of AI on the labor market so far are not out of the ordinary. 3/
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
First, we look at how quickly the overall occupational mix is changing. The job mix for AI appears to be changing faster than it has in the past, although not markedly so. BUT... 2/
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
New from me @mollykinder.bsky.social Josh Kendall and Maddie Lee: how should we be tracking the impact of AI on the labor market? Tldr: no signs of major disruptions yet, but we plan to update our trackers monthly 1/
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
media.tenor.com
elmo from sesame street is standing in front of a wall of fire .
ALT: elmo from sesame street is standing in front of a wall of fire .
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Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
3. "Fine, we'll just rely on private data." (This one is @marthagimbel.bsky.social bait) There is lots of private data out there, and we'll be leaning on it heavily during a shutdown. But hardly anyone who has looked closely at these data thinks they can come close to replacing government sources.
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Upjohn Institute @upjohninstitute.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
We’re excited to officially welcome‪ @chloergibbs.bsky.social and @moniqueedavis-phd.bsky.social to the Upjohn Institute research team! Chloe brings deep expertise in education policy, while Monique’s research explores systemic inequality in economic outcomes. #EconSky
upjohn.org
Upjohn Institute welcomes two new economists
Chloe Gibbs and Monique Davis join the research team
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Stacey Vanek Smith @svaneksmith.bsky.social · 20/07/2025
Fed Fight: It’s Trump vs Jerome Powell. Why an Independent Fed matters @chafkin.bsky.social and I talk with @marthagimbel.bsky.social this week on Everybody’s Business from @businessweektr.bsky.social @bloomberg.com #jeromepowell #federalreserve #economy
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Rafe Meager (they/them) @economeager.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
cordelia is arguably the first mentally well person in the history of literature
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
See here: bsky.app/profile/benc...
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
If you’re questioning the integrity of BLS statistics “because ADP” I cannot help you
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Jordan Matsudaira @jdmatsudaira.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
House/Senate are set to eliminate Grad PLUS, and put in place loan limits that would dramatically restrict graduate borrowing. Media coverage emphasizes impact this may have on very expensive programs like Medicine and Dentistry, but @peerresearch.bsky.social finds impact will be much(!) broader 1/
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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
Scratching my head at the CEA estimate that their economic plan will lower debt/GDP by at least 3pp in FY 2025. There are only 3 months left in FY 2025. And tariff revenue < 0.5% of GDP. So would need about 12% annualized GDP growth in Q3 to hit this target.
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
Obviously other differences between us and CBO under the hood - but I think the main takeaway is that modelers (including the excellent civil servants at CBO) agree: dynamic scoring will not solve the debt problems with this bill 2/
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
CBO just released a dynamic estimate and the cost of OBBBA goes from $2.4 trillion to $2.8 trillion. But by convention they don’t include the costs of interest on new debt. If they do that - cost goes to $3.4 trillion. @budgetlab.bsky.social comparable estimate was $3.5 trillion. 1/
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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
New analysis from @budgetlab.bsky.social: if you combine the distributional impact of tariffs so far with CBO's new OBBBA distribution, the bottom 80% of households see a decline in income, and the 9th decile is close to neutral. Only the top 10% see a clear net benefit. 1/3
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Michael Schulman @michaelschulman.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
Cynthia Erivo just rhymed “Odenkirk and watch Cole werk.” I’m satisfied!
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