iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

A spying special on the Fourcast Indicators pod this week as @krishgm.bsky.social and I are joined by Mark Lyall Grant to discuss how threats are evolving rapidly youtu.be/jVjWnZ8Xir8

SPY WARS: can Europe’s spooks handle ‘EXPLOSION’ in Russian spy attacks?

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thank you Paul -coming from you that's much appreciated

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much appreciate that Alan, thank you

Alan Owlport 🦉 🎃 @alanallport.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

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I have not loved every decision made by the IWM in the past few years (though far more for practical/aesthetic than culture war reasons) but this piece by @markurban.bsky.social is by far the most sensible I’ve seen on the topic for a long time. markurban.substack.com/p/secrets-of...

What I learned on the board of the IWM

Secrets of the Museum

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John C @badsocialism.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Having worked the coal-face at the IWM I have to say this is a very fair defence of an institution I grew to like more across the short time I worked there - and it's hard to escape the fact that it is 1) a popular destination and 2) one that impresses almost every visitor who enters

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Ian McClellan @ianmac.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

The BBC has announced it will be cutting a raft of Radio 4 programmes including the long-running consumer and social affairs show You and Yours. The social sciences show Thinking Allowed will also be cut along with arts and ideas programme Free Thinking… 🤔 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.uk

BBC to cut raft of Radio 4 programmes including You and Yours

The corporation said it would be investing in a new consumer programme, while announcing more cuts.

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you're quick off the mark Gareth! thank you

Being a great cultural institution, the Imperial War Museum gets its share of brickbats. Here's what I learned in eight years on the board markurban.substack.com/p/secrets-of...

What I learned on the board of the IWM

Secrets of the Museum

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

On the subtleties of diplomatic meetings and why that New York handshake was a mistake markurban.substack.com/p/britains-i...

And why that handshake already looks like a bad idea

Britain’s Iran Dilemma

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The USS Abraham Lincoln just arrived in Guam after more than 300 days deployed - a telling example of operational overstretch. In my latest Times Defence Decoded video I ask whether these ships have turned from a symbol of US might into one of its limitations www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTpr...

youtube.com

How America’s Aircraft Carrier Crisis Reveals A Military Decline

YouTube video by The Times

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Trump and Xi - what the summit tells us about the most important bilateral relationship in the world today? Get your Fourcast Indicators pod while it’s fresh! youtu.be/IOPFCrjXICY

Donald Trump meets Xi Jinping - new balance of POWER?

johnrwilliams.bsky.social @johnrwilliams.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

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"Given all of this, rushing headlong towards greater dependence on space seems odd. Doesn’t national resilience demand the retention of as many reversionary or back up ways of operating as possible, if there is a growing danger of the orbiting infrastructure is in danger of being obliterated?"

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Feel free to be that guy! It’s a very fair point

Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Britain enters the space warfare business - just as its dependence on satellites has never been higher markurban.substack.com/p/britain-en...

Britain Enters The Space Arms Race

While growing ever more dependent on orbiting infrastructure

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

WATCH: a video I made for @thetimes Originals channel that's gone well north of 500k viewers now. How Iran prepared for its war with the US ... www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMUj...

youtube.com

How Iran's Underground Missile Cities Outsmarted the US

YouTube video by The Times

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Amidst the doom and gloom about what’s been going on in the Middle East and the energy sector we may be missing a big story about the transformation of the US military markurban.substack.com/p/americas-d...

And how it’s changed the Hormuz equation

America’s Drone Fleet

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

WATCH: how Iran prepared for war against America - my latest Defence Decoded video youtu.be/vMUj3CikMSg

How Iran's Underground Missile Cities Outsmarted the US

YouTube video by Times Originals

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Strong words today from Britain, ten European allies and Canada, denouncing 'ethnic cleansing' by Israeli settlers in the West Bank. Underlying that is a deeper alienation between that country and many of its western democratic allies markurban.substack.com/p/europe-san...

Europe Sanctions the Settlements

As Israel and the democratic west pull apart

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Luke McGee @lukemcgee.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

Interesting column by @markurban.bsky.social in the ST on the shifting dynamics in Strait of Hormuz. Best part (in my view) this reflection on shifting US objectives (and what it cost to get even here) apple.news/AaFEGrammS42...

apple.news

Ingenuity and US force are easing Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz — The Times and The Sunday Times

Power dynamics are shifting in the Gulf as efforts to get oil flowing show signs of success

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Germany has accused Russia of trying to blow up a plane at Leipzig airport last month - so what happens next given that everyone in Europe seems braced for escalation? markurban.substack.com/p/germany-ac...

Germany Accuses The Kremlin

...and then what?

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Back with another Fourcast Indicators pod this week alongside @krishgm.bsky.social and a lot to process - notably the ways the Gulf crisis links to the one in the bond markets, and not forgetting Russia! youtu.be/SyVEHrRb0SM

‘A BATTLE FOR SURVIVAL’ - Iran plunged back into war

Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

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Indeed not, but that’s one of the things explored in the article, whether the factors are different now

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Peter Ricketts @lordrickettsp.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Thanks @markurban.bsky.social for quoting me in this cogent assessment of the Ratcliffe mission to Moscow. Whatever his precise talking points, the visit itself was part of the message, and is best followed up by prompt NATO-wide action to up the pressure on Russia in response to provocations.

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

After the CIA boss's dash to Moscow my Sunday Times column this week asks whether the threat of escalation by Putin is serious and whether a visit like that can make a difference (£) www.thetimes.com/world/russia...

thetimes.com

Is Russia going to launch an attack on Nato?

CIA director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow was meant to act as a warning to Putin, but was it enough to deter him from another invasion or acts of sabotage?

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

The future of the BBC's Newsnight was in the news this week. The Corporation's DG described as 'nonsense' the idea it was about to be scrapped. As a veteran of the show, naturally, I have views markurban.substack.com/p/newsnight-...

Newsnight Has Been Saved!

Or has it... ?

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Steve Rosenberg @bbcstever.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Two very different headlines today in Russia. The army paper: “Victory will be ours!” Nezavisimaya Gazeta: “Is there a way out of the petrol crisis if infrastructure isn’t protected?” #ReadingRussia

Russian paper: Fuel crisis won't end if Russia can't protect its refineries from drone attacks

YouTube video by Steve Rosenberg

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Chris Rivers @chrisrivers50.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

“We see telltale indicators of escalation in Russian actions towards [Nato]. Whether it was explosive-laden drones at Leipzig airport, Geran one way ‘effectors’ flying into Polish airspace or an uncrewed sea vessel targeting Romania’s offshore gas installations there are myriad signs of it…”

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

We've got used to there being a stalemate in Ukraine - but things are changing now, with risks for Putin, Zelenskyy, and indeed Europe markurban.substack.com/p/double-jeo...

Putin and Zelenskyy are both now under pressure and that raises the risks

Double Jeopardy

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

I think you have the wrong person, I haven't done a crime series

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

How on earth did the US get itself into the position that it has fired off most of its stockpile of key missiles? My piece from today' Sunday Times (£) www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

thetimes.com

How did mighty America end up with a shortage of missiles?

Trump’s reported failure to heed warnings before the Iran war follows years of prioritising jets over boring old bombs — and could be bad news for Taiwan

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Let's be real - love of hate Trump, the threats to his life are evident and have to be taken seriously. Journalists covering leaders need to reflect upon that markurban.substack.com/p/iran-wants...

And that's one of the risks journalists covering him have to understand

Iran Wants Trump Dead

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

Stand by! Your Fourcast Indicators pod is out - does the strike in Leipzig mark a new escalation by Putin against NATO, and how might Zelensky convert his deep strike campaign into something that could pose a real threat to the Kremlin? youtu.be/YCzDIsuwFTI

‘PUTIN’S NIGHTMARE’: how Ukraine can deliver ‘KILLER BLOW’ in Russia war | The Fourcast: Indicators

Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

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Watching this development carefully. No Eur country should bother with Patriot now. 1. Won't get them for years, 2. Subject to US caprice, 3. FP 7 missile will be @ 20% of Patriot cost, 4. FP 7 got same performance profile, except terminal guidance, which will improve. Good prospects overall.

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Thanks Adam. It’s not an endorsement of Mark’s videos, more a marker of where someone who puts the effort in over the years can get to in terms of building a big following

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Macca @macca77.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Really good read by a much missed BBC correspondant

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Jonathan Boff @jfb1066.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Of all the decisions we make as citizens, there are few as consequential as those for - or against - war. Good journalism plays an important role in keeping us - as citizen, not just consumers, informed, so this, from an experienced and very talented defence correspondent is important

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

I’ve been thinking about the coverage of defence and conflict - who’s stepping up, and who isn’t markurban.substack.com/p/making-sen...

Making Sense of Our War Torn World

There's a huge public appetite for journalism about conflict ...but not everyone delivers

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

attempts to boost Patriot production numbers started in earnest in 2022. The US numbers are somewhat better but still far below usage. But the projects to start production in Germany and Japan as well have yet to deliver yet

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

Dramatic events in the Middle East during the past week as Iran finally played the Houthi card. How one side in this conflict escalates to advantage ... while the other posts on social media open.substack.com/pub/markurba...

open.substack.com

The Art of War, 2026 Style

How Iran regained its escalation dominance

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

the lack of Patriot re-loads was flagged up in my book The Edge ... published in 2015! This and the issue of magazine depth more generally with advanced weapons is a two decade long, bi-partisan, screw up

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Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Programme @chrussiaeurasia.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

🎧 Listen to Deputy Director of @chrussiaeurasia.bsky.social & head of @chathamhouse.org #UkraineForum - Orysia Lutsevych discussing recent government reshuffle in Ukraine with Matt Frei & @markurban.bsky.social on Channel 4’s The Fourcast: Indicators. Full video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=caG3...

youtube.com

What Ukraine's defence reshuffle REALLY means for Russia war | The Fourcast Indicators

Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

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Just as Ukraine looks like turning the tide, a bitter row and sackings at the top of their forces - time for a @C4TheFourcast Indicators pod! youtu.be/caG3bWH3VQ8

What Ukraine's defence reshuffle REALLY means for Russia war | The Fourcast Indicators

Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

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yes that's fair comment. Transatlantic relationships will not return to pre-Trump orthodoxy but it's possible that a greater understanding of the need to harness allies (in America's interest) may return and these senior officers help foster that

Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

fair comment - but we will see whether a more general understanding of the value of allies returns. I know there's plenty who love tearing up the old assumptions, but equally polls suggest significant numbers who don't want isolation