Sign in

Michael Clarke

@mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social
1K followers 48 following 130 posts

Defence and Security Analyst. Former Director General, Royal United Services Institute. Former Professor of Defence Studies, King's College London. Now Visiting Professor at KCL and University of Exeter and holds Fellowships at a number of institutions.

PostsRepliesMedia
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
There is a big build up of Russian-inspired incidents taking place around Poland/Baltics - including creating several thousand new military hospital slots. After the Duma elections we'll see if Putin is bluffing, or genuinely wants to start a campaign to split NATO, now he knows Trump won't act.
162
Reposted by Michael Clarke
🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 @militarynewsua.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
❗️Russian strategic bombers Tu-95MS armed with Kh-101 cruise missiles carried out a five-hour flight over the Barents and Norwegian Seas north of Scandinavia, escorted by Su-33 fighters. NATO responded by scrambling its own fighters to escort them.
3479
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Sun Tsu's famous text, The Art of War, is actually all about avoiding war. If a single concept comes through it's 'Don't'. That is, 'don't' UNLESS there is no alternative, a clear strategy, understanding the effort etc etc. Too late now, but someone should have read it to President Trump.
1121
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Typical headline now 6 months into the war. It's a war for losers. Apart from Russia & Israel, everyone else loses - US (politically) and the country of Iran (economically/socially) lose the most. Others to different degrees. Failed thinking all round. digitaleditions.telegraph.co.uk/data/2544/re...
digitaleditions.telegraph.co.uk
The Telegraph
160
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Freyja again. Expect to see a lot of this sort of collaboration with Ukraine in European rearmament. Not a model for everything, but a series of quick wins in many important areas.
0111
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
This is the current weak spot of the FP 7. Infra-red terminal phase homing isn't as reliable as radar, since the target can spoof a heat source. But that can be improved later. The main thing is to get the whole Freyja anti-ballistic missile system running, maybe even by next year - quite something.
1141
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Watching this development carefully. No Eur country should bother with Patriot now. 1. Won't get them for years, 2. Subject to US caprice, 3. FP 7 missile will be @ 20% of Patriot cost, 4. FP 7 got same performance profile, except terminal guidance, which will improve. Good prospects overall.
611133
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
His only real option since 7 Apr has been to declare victory and leave. CENTCOM offers him a 'go big' option. So now it's a classic 'go big or go home' choice - same problem only sharper.
2101
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
US making upfront economic concessions against Iranian future promises. On 7 March Trump said he wanted their 'unconditional surrender'. Instead, the US is now in the process of what I call a 'staged surrender' to Tehran as its position weakens. digitaleditions.telegraph.co.uk/data/2472/re...
digitaleditions.telegraph.co.uk
The Telegraph
0111
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
If this is the US/Iran deal, it will be a victory only in Trump's own mind. The US lost this war on 7 April with the 'ceasefire'. It was the moment when raw US military power could achieve no more and the US had nothing more subtle to put into the campaign. www.thetimes.com/article/1d9f...
thetimes.com
Verifying Device
0112
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
His view that Ukraine has no right to exist hasn't changed since the break up of the Soviet Union in 1991. His speeches, his writings - there's no mystery about it.
0132
Reposted by Michael Clarke
The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 12/06/2026
“He likes to improvise, but what is important is that Putin has once again confirmed that Russia’s vision of how this war should end has not changed. These are the same maximalist demands we have been hearing for at least a year,” Oleksii Melnyk said.
kyivindependent.com
Putin repeats maximalist war claims as battlefield reality shifts
Against the backdrop of Ukrainian drone strikes on St. Petersburg that sent plumes of smoke over the city, Russian President Vladimir Putin took part in a lengthy discussion at Russia's flagship econo...
816631
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Tan is quite right. This is more serious than the resignations of Streeting, Phillips or the 3 other ministers to go this past month - because Healey was totally loyal and his decision is not part of any political manoeuvring over the leadership. It is 100% about the financial state of defence.
191
Reposted by Michael Clarke
Mark Chadbourn @chadbourn.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
Don’t forget Georgia, under assault from Putin’s puppets. Georgia is European. @annagvarish.bsky.social
Anna Gvarishvili • @AnnaGvaris... • 2m
X
I rarely tweet these days. When things feel this hopeless, I don't know what to say. I don't want my posts to sound like "they beat us again, oh well," and I hate complaining, so most days I stay quiet.
But l'll say this: you have no idea how hard it is to be a journalist, activist, politician, or just a regular citizen in today's Georgia. If you're not with GD, you're under them in every sense of the word.
272
15589194
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
Totally agree Greg. The only success in war is ultimately political. And on that basis Trump is now losing this one badly. Hard to see him pulling even a limited political victory out of this. And last time I heard 'bombing back to stone age' was Curtis LeMay over Vietnam in 1965. That went well.
total.ly
0104
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Makes me smile. For years the Royal Navy hasn't been prepared for peace - let alone war. RN hasn't been capable of performing the normal range of standard, diplomatic, protection tasks etc. Most of its ships are out of the water most of the time. digitaleditions.telegraph.co.uk/data/2391/re...
digitaleditions.telegraph.co.uk
The Telegraph
081
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
I don't post much on this as it's stating the obvious. But the more the Iran War spins out of control, the more Russia and Israel emerge as the only net winners. China is a 50/50 calculation. Everyone else - US, Iran, Gulfies, Middle East, Europe, global south, global economy- are all losers in it.
1225
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
More or less sums it up - plus 3 x F-15s lost to friendly fire, 1x KC-135 lost to mid air incident, 1x KC-135 likely damaged, 1x F-35 damaged by hostile fire. 13 US dead so far, over 100 injured in various ways. True, Iran is a paper tIger. But even a paper tiger can cause chaos & maybe get lucky.
3143
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
Both the White House and the Kremlim are actively trying to get Hungary's Orban re-elected yet again next month. In both cases, to undermine traditional European liberal democracy. They have each committed to that in policy documents. Bizarre world with Europe caught between 2 rogue superpowers.
0169
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
Personally, I'm not angry or somehow offended by the attitude. It's just the political and cultural reality we have to deal with. European liberal democrats have got to realise what's really important to them and hang onto those fundamentals.
050
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
Yes Nicole! He spoke today about 'our good friends in Europe'. After MSC 25, MSC 26, Davos, Greenland, beating up Zelinskiy, the Nov25 Nat. Sec Strat and then the Jan 26 Nat Def Strat - 'Europe' doesn't feel it has much of a friend at all in Washington these days. The MAGA people despise us.
3122
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
This guy is not any sort of official adviser to Putin, but is well known to have inspired his thinking over many years. There's no way back for them, or us, to the pre-2022 world in Europe. New times entirely for us all.
43810
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
Been speaking about this very issue at Sky News. If Eur (though not US) forces seize dark fleet tankers - which they should - they have to be able and prepared for Mocow to escalate into a bigger militarized incident. Happening before too long, I expect. (Patrushev's the arch nutjob in the Kremlin.)
062
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
A direct result of current US policy - Canada redefines its genuine friends. Important to European NATO that Canada is an intrinsic part of it.
184
Reposted by Michael Clarke
24Hours Ukraine @24hoursukraine.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
🇺🇦🇸🇪🇫🇮🇺🇸Ben Hodges:“NATO would be better the day the Ukrainian flag is raised in Brussels. Just as we got better when the Swedish and Finnish flags were raised.”
928155
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
Britain between two aggressors. The Kremlin wants to take us on as a lesson to other Europeans. The White House wants to take us on as an example of 'civilisational erasure'. Both trying to undermine our society & democracy. Must hold on, be confident in ourselves. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Why Maga loathes London
Trump and his supporters see the UK capital as the symbol of a Europe facing ‘civilisational erasure’
090
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
Not true. Babis is parroting the Moscow narrative that is taken up by all the Kremlin's allies and useful idiots in Europe. The 2022 Istanbul meeting is well documented. They weren't very close to a deal and it was finally scuppered when all the Bucha massacres came to light.
1120
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
The CIA, without any explanation, has just cut any further publication of its annual 'World Factbook'. This has been used for years by the US and many others as an authoritative set of hard, mainly statistical facts about every country. Presumably the CIA has given up on bothering with real facts.
0142
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
This is the line the Putin puppets across Europe are all taking. None of it is actually true. Ukraine can sustain its fight for a long time yet, if it's determined to do so - and that's entirely for them. They will get better in most dimensions of the war, whereas Russia is now at peak performance.
093
Reposted by Michael Clarke
Ed Davey @eddavey.libdems.org.uk · 22/01/2026
457 British troops lost their lives in Afghanistan. Trump avoided military service 5 times. How dare he question their sacrifice. Farage and all the others still fawning over Trump should be ashamed.
991750660
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
Some people think Trump's comments were a sort of tactic following the Davos climbdown. But I think his comments were actually just what they seem - freewheeling ignorance from an old man who is accorded Papal Infallibility by his followers. bsky.app/profile/theg...
2142
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Maybe the President would like to chat to the 800+ families who lost someone helping support US policy in Afghanistan?
1172
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
General view is that the trade bazooka is so big the EU won't use it as results may spiral. Maybe. But that was said about cancelling Nordstream 2 in 2022 after Russia's new invasion, and yet it happened. This challenge is different but just as important for Europe's future.
041
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 18/01/2026
The parallels between Putin and Trump have become quite remarkable: imperialists, bullies, re-writing history, searching for motives to justify personal grandeur, surrounded by people too frightened to oppose them, out of control, and apparently losing grip on reality. bsky.app/profile/maks...
1133
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
I would challenge any Trump apologists to state what the security threat to Greenland actually is (and I mean real facts here) that can't be met already. If they really want to worry like this, then Alaska is far, far more at risk. Why not wet yourself about that? www.ft.com/content/1dfa...
ft.com
Nato troops to be in Greenland on ‘more permanent’ basis
Some European countries are sending soldiers to the Arctic island after Donald Trump intensified threats to take control
1130
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
Military theatre of the absurdist genre. Sending troops we don't have to a place that doesn't need them, in an attempt to blunt the vainglorious project of a supreme narcissist who happens to be President of the US. www.thetimes.com/article/80da...
thetimes.com
Britain joins Greenland Nato mission designed ‘to keep Trump happy’
The reconnaissance exercise will establish what a more sustained ground deployment of troops could look like in an effort to reassure the United States
1102
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
We never know whether he has actually thought about these things before he says them. But if he really has thought about this little gem, it shows he has only a child-like view of how politics - any politics - actually works. My 18-year old under-grads were considerably better than this.
2122
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
For Putin, President Trump is the gift that keeps on giving. He doesn't need to lift a finger to be presented with era-defining strategic gains for imperialist Russia. www.thetimes.com/article/4bf1...
thetimes.com
Trump could take Greenland using military force, White House says
President Trump believes acquiring Greenland is ‘a national security priority’ and has ignored warnings from Europe to take caution
0142
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
Many analysts are struggling to reconcile this sort of US military intervention, attacks on Iran, the Houthis, and threats to others with Trump's isolationist thinking. But this is best understood as 'strategic raiding' -short, sharp with quick pay-offs. Addictive... news.sky.com/story/us-gen...
news.sky.com
US general reveals how America captured Venezuela's president
Fair weather allowed US helicopters to sneak into Venezuela - flying at just 100ft - before descending on Maduro's compound.
280
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 28/12/2025
Conditions in Moldova are almost a carbon copy of the Donbas in 2014. Easily set up for Russian subversion followed by direct intervention. It's a spring-loaded trap that may begin to snap quite soon.
1112
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 24/12/2025
Read this headline initially as an example of extreme accuracy - until I realised what it really was on second look. Blaming the festive season for my gullibility..... bsky.app/profile/maks...
030
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
The Trump Administration now aims to undermine the sovereignty of Denmark, one of its NATO allies. Copenhagen and Nuuk should refuse to speak with him except through the accredited US Ambassador to Denmark. And if he interferes with Greenland public, deny him entry. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
New Trump envoy says he will serve to make Greenland part of US
Denmark warns Washington to respect its sovereignty, while Greenland says it will decide its own future.
0145
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
Europeans are 'little pigs' said Putin. And, 'there is no civilization there, only degradation'. Looks to be consciously lining up with the Trump Nat. Security Strategy view of Europe. Europeans assaulted on all sides now. Need to be clear to ourselves what we stand for, and make it count.
2112
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 14/12/2025
Yes, proper journalism. Be there, see it, report it - whatever you see....
051
Reposted by Michael Clarke
rak @raksky.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
This was from an interview promoting @alexcrawfreports.bsky.social new “Hotspots” series “behind the scenes into some of the world's most hostile environments” on Sky News: youtu.be/-i90056QNHg Another clip from that interview ⤵️
youtu.be
'Raw footage and unvarnished reality': Alex Crawford on new series of Hotspots
YouTube video by Hotspots
011
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 14/12/2025
Excellent front line material from Stuart Ramsey and Alex Crawford in the new Hotspots format. Important to keep it real while we all discuss 'conflicts' in a detached sort of way...
040
Reposted by Michael Clarke
Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 @marikamikiashvili.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
An important The National Interest article on how Georgian Dream has turned Georgia into a key sanctions-evasion corridor fueling Russia’s war economy, while aligning with Moscow, Beijing & Tehran and escalating domestic repression. Thank you, Nikoloz Chkhaidze! nationalinterest.org/blog/silk-ro...
15823
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
No way of telling whether MAGA America is - or will be - the real America. That's a 10-year struggle, it seems. But for now, the US sees itself as detached from the Tranaatlantic relationship. War in Europe is far more likely as a result.Trump isn't much of an ally any more, still less a friend.
091
Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
The 29 page US SecurityStrategy is incoherent and full of contradictions. It posits a world based on sovereign nations, not int law/institiutions. But that sovereignty doesn't extend to Europe where the US asserts a right to act against our domestic politics to support the anti-democrats it likes.
092