iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Manne Gerell @mannegerell.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

New paper out ✅ Unsafe Locations in Semi-Rural Sweden: The Where, What, When, and Why In the paper we show that places perceived as unsafe in two small towns are strongly clustered, with central squares, parks and schools/sport centers common. 1/3 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

journals.sagepub.com

Sage Journals: Discover world-class research

Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

121

Manne Gerell @mannegerell.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

As I hyped The diplomat series a while back here I feel as if I need to mention Lioness too. Different genre (CIA action ish), but also very good in my mind. www.imdb.com/title/tt1311...

imdb.com

020

Reposted by Manne Gerell

Stijn Ruiter @stijnruiter.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

“What works?” is only the beginning. To improve investigative interviewing, we also need to ask: how, for whom, under what conditions, and at what cost? Our paper explores how EMMIE can help bridge research and practice. Open-access at: doi.org/10.1080/1561...

doi.org

The practical relevance of investigative interviewing research: applying the EMMIE framework to bridge the research-practice gap

Investigative interviewing research has produced valuable insights into effective techniques for gathering information. However, this research often fails to fully bridge the gap between academia a...

022

Manne Gerell @mannegerell.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

The drastic decline in Swedish gunviolence continues, with 0 dead and 1 wounded across the country in August. And while individual months can fluctuate, there is no doubt we have seen a large drop. 12 month average is at 2.5 and 1.9 respectively, compared to 12m mean of 9.3 & 5.4 in April 2022.

198

Manne Gerell @mannegerell.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Re-watching all episodes of The diplomate to prepare for the release of season 4. Did the same before season 3 was released. Great series. www.imdb.com/title/tt1749...

imdb.com

140

Manne Gerell @mannegerell.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Just finished a review for Journal of Quantitative Criminology. Not sure if JQCor Springer Nature, but it was a joy to use the system. One click got me to a page where I could download all the material and submit - and it did not expire over time. Usually they expire so you end up having to log in.

010

Reposted by Manne Gerell

Martin Hällsten @martinhallsten.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

What is known about “peer-review washing”? Cases in which editors invoke independent peer review as a mark of rigor, yet proceed with an R&R or publication despite serious weaknesses or clear red flags identified during review? How common is this, and what are people’s experiences with it?

353

Reposted by Manne Gerell

Joe Noonan @joenoonan.se · 08/09/2026

One of my pet peeves is looking for country level explanations for global trends. I am no expert but I don't think Norway doing X in 2022 or France changing policy Y in 2019 can explain these global declines across a diverse set of countries.

26921

Manne Gerell @mannegerell.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Today I had the honour of holding the nail Jens Widmark used to nail his dissertation "Evaluating place-based crime prevention in residential areas" to the wall. This is a Swedish tradition to make the PhD public for scrutiny before the defense which is Oct 2nd, with Wouter Steenbeek as discussant.

0100

Manne Gerell @mannegerell.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

New paper out in Crime Science with Alberto Chrysoulakis and Kim Moeller ✅ Beyond the wiretap: criminal activity networks in court cases built on captured encrypted data Encrochat, Sky ECC and An0m were huge in organized crime and law enforcement - but there are very few studies on the topic. 1/

120

Manne Gerell @mannegerell.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Paper w Karl Kronkvist and Nicklas Guldåker accepted ✅ "Unsafe Locations in Semi-Rural Sweden: The Where, What, When, and Why" has been accepted for publication in Journal of Criminology. Using a web-based map application survey we surveyed residents in two small towns on where they felt unsafe 1/

140

Manne Gerell @mannegerell.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Nice to see Hull doing well (2-0 against man united currently ), rooting for the Swede Elliot Stroud!

010

Manne Gerell @mannegerell.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

Very impressive new study by Maria Camacho Doyle e al in Applied Geography. They study how spatial risk factors for violent crime vary across ten different urban areas in sex cities, and how it varies by age and gender. Risk factors are mostly not universal. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

sciencedirect.com

010

Reposted by Manne Gerell

Christian Walburg @christianwalburg.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

Cool! As only some German states (e.g. Berlin, Bavaria) have winter school holiday, one might take a look at this here as well... also interesting to see the effects in summer (assaults partly relocated to places like outdoor pools...?)

111

Manne Gerell @mannegerell.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

New paper✅ In work led by Niklas Jakobsson we show that the winter school holiday in Sweden ("sports break") causes a reduction in assaults. This is driven by reductions against school age children (7-14y -46%, 15-17y -32%), with little effect on younger or older. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

link.springer.com

School Breaks and Crime: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Sweden - Journal of Quantitative Criminology

Objectives: We estimate the causal effect of school holidays on crime by exploiting the staggered timing of the Swedish winter sports break (sportlov) across municipalities. Methods: We use a differen...

250

Manne Gerell @mannegerell.bsky.social · 27/06/2026

Exciting/nervous now. My flight to Frankfurt was first delayed 20 minutes. Then 80. Now back down to 40. With 80 minutes I would almost certainly miss my connection to Johannesburg and then the connection to Hoedspruit where the ECCA conference is this year. 40 minutes delay might work..

140

Reposted by Manne Gerell

christhomas.bsky.social @christhomas.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

Excited to share new study in Criminology (open access) on GLP-1s & violence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.... Among current GLP-1 users, the link b/t impulsivity and violence was flat across impulsivity levels. Similar story w/alcohol use. More to come from me & @daniel-semenza.bsky.social

2226

Reposted by Manne Gerell

Alexandre Afonso @alexandreafonso.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

I made a small visualisation of the birthplace and nation represented of players at the World Cup. Stunning 96(!) players born in France. You can play with it here: claude.ai/public/artif...

Network diagram on a dark green background titled "The Birthplace Map: World Cup 2026 Squads," with the subtitle "node size = degree (players + countries connected)." Gold circles represent the 48 World Cup nations and smaller grey-green circles represent countries that only supplied players without fielding their own team, positioned roughly according to real-world geography (Americas on the left, Africa and Europe in the center, Asia and Oceania on the right). Curved green lines connect birth countries to the nations players represent, with thicker lines indicating more players. France is the largest node by far, connected to 15 countries totaling 76 players, including thick lines to Algeria, Haiti, Senegal, Congo DR, and Côte d'Ivoire. The Netherlands is the second-largest hub, with an especially thick line to Curaçao (26 players). Other notable hubs include Germany, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Morocco, and the United Kingdom (split into England and Scotland). A legend at the bottom explains the gold/grey node colors and the line-width scale; a footer credits the source as worldcup.csv, 1,248 squad entries, 282 cross-border players.

45318

Reposted by Manne Gerell

Nicholas Grossman @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

"Whatever Israel does, including Lebanon in the MOU gives Iran leverage in future talks... Iran could cite Israel’s actions to scuttle future talks with the US. Or Iran could strategically ignore Israel’s military activity if they like how negotiations are going." The US-Iran deal, point by point:

arcdigital.media

The U.S.-Iran Deal is Basically American Surrender

Examining the U.S.-Iran "Memorandum of Understanding" point-by-point

912043

Manne Gerell @mannegerell.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

New paper with Niklas Jakobsson ✅ Did the 2024 Eurovision final in Malmö affect crime? We find that non-police initiated crime went down during Eurovision week - but this was counteracted by increases in adjacent weeks - so displacement rather than reduction. www.scup.com/eprint/7IZQE...

scup.com

Did the Eurovision Song Contest in 2024 Affect Reported Crimes in the Hosting City?

We examine whether hosting the 2024 Eurovision Song Contest affected reported crime in Malmö, Sweden. Eurovision generated large visitor inflows and a substantial police reinforcement, creating a uniq...

050

Manne Gerell @mannegerell.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

New (null) paper out ✅ led by Jens Widmark Using a staggered DiD, we evaluated interventions such as improved lighting & reinforced access points in basements and attics. There was no significant reduction in theft associated with the interventions. criminologicalencounters.org/index.php/cr...

criminologicalencounters.org

Reducing Theft from Basements and Attics – A Crime Science Approach | Criminological Encounters

150

Manne Gerell @mannegerell.bsky.social · 29/05/2026

I just took a look at the summary of my publications - and the 42 papers of mine that have gotten accepted for publication are spread out across 23 different journals. About as many are in journals I only published in once (14) as journals I published in two or three times (16) and more (12).

100

Manne Gerell @mannegerell.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

Yesterday the students who volunteer to do systematic social observations of hotspots presented their work on a poster. They are observing policing, crime and disorder to enable analysis on what it looks like and how it is related- a bit of replication on Koper 1995

040

Reposted by Manne Gerell

Methodological Innovations Journal @methodinnovations.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

📣New Article: Measuring geographies of fear of crime and crime in semi‑rural Sweden Nicklas Guldåker, Karl Kronkvist, and @mannegerell.bsky.social journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

journals.sagepub.com

Sage Journals: Discover world-class research

Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

021

Manne Gerell @mannegerell.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

New paper out in Methodological Innovations with Nicklas Guldåker and Karl Kronkvist. We study places perceived as unsafe, and note that a lack of data is hampering research on the topic. To advance the question we test and compare to data collection methods journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

journals.sagepub.com

Sage Journals: Discover world-class research

Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

182

Reposted by Manne Gerell

Erik Mohlin @karlerikmohlin.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

New paper:🚨 A Model of Social Duties 🚨, with @toreellingsen.bsky.social, in Journal of Political Economy (lead article). www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... Free version: drive.google.com/file/d/1-I7E... We present a conceptualization and a formal model of duties and duty-based motivation.

1113

Manne Gerell @mannegerell.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

Kommunikationsavdelningen bad mig kommentera att 13-åringar ska kunna sättas i fängelse med anledning av en satsning som universitetet gör kring forskning i valrörelsen. TL/DR. Forskningen är skeptisk, men förståeligt att regeringen vill göra något. www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbhm...

youtube.com

Valet 2026: Ska Sverige sätta 13-åringar i fängelse?

YouTube video by Malmö universitet

040

Reposted by Manne Gerell

Cas Mudde @casmudde.bsky.social · 26/04/2026

Same here! Since Trump’s return, I have had almost no interview requests from US media but also almost no lecture invitations from US NGOs or universities (!). Invitations for academic and public speaking from the rest of the world are the same level if not higher.

25514

Reposted by Manne Gerell

Jeff Asher @jeffasher.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

New York City, Washington DC and Philadelphia all are reporting the fewest murders through Q1 ever recorded (note that NYC's data is only through March 29 but the city should easily set a new low). Detroit reported the fewest murders recorded there through March since 1964.

Detroit, NYC, DC and Philly murders through March per year since 1960

2187

Reposted by Manne Gerell

Andrew Mueller @andrewmueller.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

Remember to be wary, as today is the only day of the year that incorrect or misleading information is posted on the internet.

6331106

Manne Gerell @mannegerell.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

🎉🎈🍾Very good news - today our consortium led by Lund University were awarded a "Strategic research area" for practice oriented research on crime. A strategic research area is a large, semi-permanent, addition to research funds. We will receive SEK 25 million per year from 2028.

5312

Reposted by Manne Gerell

Gabriela Greilinger @gabrielagreilinger.com · 17/03/2026

"Autocratization is now truly global. (...) In 2025, Western Europe and North America registers the most notable decline on both country- and population-weighted averages. This is primarily due to the recent developments in the US." V-Dem released its latest report. www.v-dem.net/documents/75...

24425

Reposted by Manne Gerell

Jack Werner @kwasbeb.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

nu i höstas hände det här mig med. på torsdagsförmiddagen skrev jag en tweet om Jessika Stegrud. på fredagsmorgonen ringde soc min fru. två anmälningar hade kommit in en timme efter att jag publicerat min tweet, och i dem påstods det att jag hade slagit mitt barn på tunnelbanan.

12288129

Reposted by Manne Gerell

Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 09/03/2026

1/ Has life expectancy fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic? In a new pre-print, we find that 31 of 34 high-income countries had still not returned to their expected life expectancy trajectories five years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6... #demography

5184106

Reposted by Manne Gerell

Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

It's fascinating to me that Sweden, once global pariah for flouting lockdown consensus, seems to have come out better than even its Scandinavian neighbours

084

Reposted by Manne Gerell

Katharine Hayhoe @katharinehayhoe.com · 13/02/2026

Bluesky is the new science Twitter, new study by @whysharksmatter.bsky.social and Julia Wester concludes! "Results show that for every reported professional benefit that scientists once gained from Twitter, scientists can now gain that benefit more effectively on Bluesky than on Twitter."

academic.oup.com

Scientists no Longer Find Twitter Professionally Useful, and have Switched to Bluesky

Synopsis. Social media has become widely used by the scientific community for a variety of professional uses, including networking and public outreach. For

9667922210

Manne Gerell @mannegerell.bsky.social · 14/02/2026

Emelie Stiernströmer has a scoping review of facial recognition technology in law enforcement out now. It is a small but growing field, 11 studies but the oldest from 2020. Most studies are on attitudes, and more research on its use and impact needed. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

tandfonline.com

Facial recognition technology in law enforcement- a scoping review of existing empirical studies

This scoping review maps empirical research on law enforcement’s use of facial recognition technology (FRT) for identification purposes. A systematic search of five databases, with no time restrict...

120

Reposted by Manne Gerell

Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 11/02/2026

Overall, I think our results are: 1. Believable. I think deep down we all know we publish "too many" significant results. 2. Disastrous. Selecting on significance in this way biases results across our whole literature away from zero & it stops us from learning what doesn't work.

1687

Reposted by Manne Gerell

Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 11/02/2026

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

It must be very hard to publish null results
Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

29643220

Reposted by Manne Gerell

Veli-Matti Karhulahti @mkarhulahti.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

First post of the year, new paper out today: we present possibly the biggest case of systematic Measurement Schmeasurement in tech use. It seems that most studies on gaming (videogame) addiction/disorder haven't measured gaming after all. This research took years, so long 🧵 doi.org/10.1098/rsos...

doi.org

Confusion in gaming disorder measurement

Abstract. Measurement is important for the scientific programmes of addictive behaviours. In the present study, we investigated the measurement of gaming d

8188102

Reposted by Manne Gerell

Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 26/01/2026

We're consumed by stories of murder, but how much do you know about homicide in England and Wales? Every day this week I'm going to post a thread summarising a different aspect of what data can tell us about the nature of homicide. 🧵

Line chart showing the homicide rate per million people in England and Wales from 1900 to 2024. Light purple dots represent the annual rate, a thick purple line shows the trend, and black triangles mark spikes during the World Wars. A single black dot in 2003 highlights Harold Shipman’s murders, which were recorded that year despite occurring earlier. The rate generally declined from 1900 to the mid-1960s, then rose until the early 2000s before declining again. Data source: Home Office historical crime data. Base: all recorded homicides, 1900–2024. Vertical axis ranges from 0 to 20 homicides per million people.

A bar chart comparing homicide rates per million residents in 2023 across European countries. Each country is represented by a vertical blue bar, except for England and Wales, which is highlighted in dark purple. A dotted line indicates the EU average of 9.1 homicides per million. Malta has the lowest rate, while Latvia has the highest, exceeding 40 homicides per million. England and Wales sits at almost exactly the EU average. Countries are listed along the x-axis, and the y-axis shows homicide rates. Data sources are the Home Office for England and Wales, and Eurostat for other countries.

Bar chart showing homicide rates per million residents in countries with populations over 10 million, using the most recent available data (since 2021). Countries are sorted left to right by increasing homicide rate. Japan, Indonesia, and South Korea have the lowest rates, all well below the 2023 world average of 52 homicides per million (marked by a dotted line). England and Wales appears below average. The highest rates are seen in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, South Africa, and Ecuador, with Ecuador exceeding 450 homicides per million. Source: Home Office (UK) and World Bank. Vertical axis shows homicide rate; horizontal axis lists countries.

21512

Manne Gerell @mannegerell.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

Preliminary 2025 crime stats for Sweden were released today. Over all a 3% (50k) drop in police reported crimes. This is driven by large drops in theft (-12%, -43k) and vandalism (-13%, -26k). Assaults up 4% (+3k) and fraud up 1% (+3k). (Link in Swedish) bra.se/statistik/st...

bra.se

Anmälda brott

Statistiken över anmälda brott omfattar alla händelser som anmälts och registrerats som brott hos Polismyndigheten, Åklagarmyndigheten, Tullverket med flera. De anmälda brotten inkluderar även händels...

1143

Reposted by Manne Gerell

Joshua Gans @joshgans.bsky.social · 21/01/2026

You've heard about the @MarkJCarney speech. You should listen to it all. It is one of great speeches of all time. We will talk of this for decades. www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQOr...

youtube.com

Davos: Canadian PM Mark Carney speaks at World Economic Forum | Geo News English

YouTube video by Geo News English

1216

Reposted by Manne Gerell

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 20/01/2026

Mark Carney's speech really is terrific: full text is here and very much worth your time.

paulwells.substack.com

The Carney doctrine

Open comment thread on the PM's Davos speech

741959683

Reposted by Manne Gerell

Shaun Pinner @shaunpinner.bsky.social · 17/01/2026

I’ve never seen a US president hated this broadly worldwide. Trump’s name comes up in bars,coffee shops far from America, and it’s never complimentary. That’s before you factor in the US itself.

2019934

Reposted by Manne Gerell

Samuel Perry @profsamperry.bsky.social · 17/01/2026

Man, Du Bois had some bangers, but for me, it doesn't get much better than his scathing indictment of the "Christianity" of the United States. Certainly this was all true of the nation in his lifetime. But in my lifetime, his criticisms have never felt so true of the nation right now.

719286

Manne Gerell @mannegerell.bsky.social · 17/01/2026

It is really time to cut all ties with the US. It is an autocracy that uses force of different means to achieve more power. I do not understand why the European response is so muted.

2172