iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 23h

I'm not sure who saw this coming, but so far nearly all the jobs created during the second Trump administration have gone to women.

Line chart titled "So far during Trump's second term, just 8% of all job growth has gone to men" showing change in employment by gender since January 2025. Total nonfarm employment grew by 776,000 jobs through September 2026, with women gaining 711,000 positions (92% of growth) while men added only 65,000 jobs (8% of growth). Women's employment gains accelerated sharply through 2026, reaching 711,000 by September, while men's employment growth remained flat with brief periods of decline, including a drop of 96,000 jobs in February 2026.

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Super Shoe @shoe.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Hoo boy

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George Pearkes @peark.es · 30/09/2026

Here’s an extremely brief effort to explain why bond yields going up is actually not bad news.

September 28, 2026
Rates. 10y yields briefly traded above 5.2% today, closing up 7 bps on the session. As shown below, they're the farthest from fair value that they've been in some time based on our qualitative model.
Bespoke 10y Yield Fair Value Model: Past Year
5.25
5.00
— 10y Yield (%)
10y Extreme Cheap
9/22/2026, First Fed
hike
4.75
4.50
10y Moderate
Cheap
4.25
4.00
10y Moderate Rich
3.75
3.50
7/25/2023, Last Fed
hike
9/18/2024, First Fed
12/10/2025, Last Fed
cut
cut
10y Extreme Rich
3.25
%
Our model assumes 2% inflation over the long term plus an inflation risk premium (35 bps, to use explicit TIPS pricing). With those values fixed, below we show the implicit growth (including risk premium around growth) forecast from the market given the consensus range of term premium (after backing out some amount off growth risk premium).
Current pricing assumes trend growth above 2% and rising.
Market-Implied Growth + Growth Risk Premium: 5.25% Is The Promised Land
10y UST Yield

Term Premium

-0.4
-0.2

0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8

1.2
1.4

3.00
1.05
0.85
0.65
0.45
0.25
0.05
-0.15
-0.35
-0.55
-0.75

3.25
1.30
1.10
0.90
0.70
0.50
0.30
0.10
-0.10
-0.30
-0.50

3.50
1.55
1.35
1.15
0.95
0.75
0.55
0.35
0.15
-0.05
-0.25

3.75
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00

4.00
2.05
1.85
1.65
1.45
1.25
1.05
0.85
0.65
0.45
0.25

4.25
2.30
2.10
1.90
1.70
1.50
1.30
1.10
0.90
0.70
0.50

4.50
2.55
2.35
2.15
1.95
1.75
1.55
1.35
1.15
0.95
0.75

4.75
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00

5.00
3.05
2.85
2.65
2.45
2.25
2.05
1.85
1.65
1.45
1.25

5.25
3.30
3.10
2.90
2.70
2.50
2.30
2.10
1.90
1.70
1.50

5.50
3.55
3.35
3.15
2.95
2.75
2.55
2.35
2.15
1.95
1.75

5.75
3.80
3.60
3.40
3.20
3.00
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00

6.00
4.05
3.85
3.65
3.45
3.25
3.05
2.85
2.65
2.45
2.25
Range of TP Estimates
Note: Assumes 35 bps inflation risk premium, 2% inflation. Term does not include growth or inflation risk premium.

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The Bulwark @thebulwark.com · 29/09/2026

Cait Conley: "What is wrong is you allowing Donald Trump to revoke Haitian TPS status…You allowed Donald Trump to come here and visit you. You go to the Oval Office. You go to his rallies. But you don't actually hold him accountable."

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David M. Perry @lollardfish.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Oh hell yes

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Bill Kristol @billkristolbulwark.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Great to see all the Trump-supporting China hawks being just a little bit intellectually honest and politically courageous and criticizing him for this pathetic, sucking-up-and-kowtowing-to China summit. Not.

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ghost malone ergo propter bones @proptermalone.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

ok, i kind of think Todd Achilles is the real deal candidate-wise. i gave him some money. i'm going to sit down and do some math and try to figure out if this is legitimately a no-hoper or if this is a longshot-big-payoff bet, but if there's a chance we may do some cooking for him on Bsky

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Dr Charlie Gardner @charliejgardner.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

This year has been brutal, and like most people you probably want to do more about climate change. But what, and how? Great news – I’ve written just the book for you! It’s called What One Person Can Do and it’s a clear and simple how-to guide, a roadmap to help you make influential changes...

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ProPublica @propublica.org · 22/09/2026

Sen. Susan Collins helped steer millions in federal defense contracts to Navatek, whose CEO illegally funneled thousands of dollars to her campaign. The FBI sought to launch a probe and was eyeing Collins and other lawmakers. Then Trump gutted the unit in charge. THREAD 🧵

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Caroleeena @caroleeena.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

🧵Lauren Boebert had sex with three of her staffers. Two of them were women. Her sex partners were Clarisse Navarro, Jeffrey Small and Raven Finnegan. Navarro's husband Jace Ratzlaff: "I assumed this would eventually surface. I’ll have no further comment on this topic.”

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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline entirely offline this week and will remain throttled for a month or more, pushing Riyadh headlong into the Hormuz dark trade, while diesel prices rose above $220/bbl. Summary below, full report in reply.

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

You can watch my Technical Analysis 101 lecture for the @UofNorthFlorida finance students on YouTube: youtu.be/r3E4usXKxIk Hopefully that works! @CMTAssociation @stockcharts

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Kevin Rothrock @kevinrothrock.me · 18/09/2026

A rather alarming development in the case of Russian pro-peace parliamentary candidate Yulia Kuznetsova, who went missing after meeting voters in Moscow. She's resurfaced, saying a “difficult conversation” left her needing "psychological and medical help," but that she and her husband are safe.

t.me

Юлия Кузнецова (Харченко)

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elia ayoub @ayoub.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Friend shared this video of a man unveiling the library he hid when he fled Damascus in 2011. It’s incredible

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Mark Hertling @markhertling.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

It’s National Women in Medicine Day, and I’m thankful for all women who serve as healthcare professionals! Selfless servant leaders.

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amanda moore 🐢 @noturtlesoup17.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

“The worst place ever I’ve been in my life," Sakariye Abdi Mohamed, a Somali asylum seeker, told me over the phone from Guantanamo Bay last week. Sakariye is one of 7 or 8 Somalis who are being held at Gitmo. They say guards tell them the order to keep Somalis at the facility comes from DC.

motherjones.com

The Trump administration is imprisoning Somali immigrants in Gitmo

“Nobody tell us that we’re going to Guantanamo Bay.”

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Bunkerhunter @bunkerhunter.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

The video 🤷‍♂️

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Shipwreck @shipwreck75.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Houthi forces appear to have shot down a Saudi Air Force F-15 near Marib.

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Alex Winter @alexwinter.com · 16/09/2026

True story.

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Dan Lamothe @danlamothe.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Reachable on Signal for encrypted news tips at danlamothe.30 Thank you!

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Michael Santoli @michaelsantoli.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

A year ago, a saturating worry was speculative enthusiasm building to an AI bubble. No more. Sentiment has reset toward skepticism, valuations have compressed, perceived hazards have the spotlight. Where that leaves us, as macro conditions turn more vexing. New newsletter, free to subscribe.

cnbc.com

Santoli: The youthful phase of AI is over. What it means for investors

The AI narrative has flipped to a focus on the risk with the tech unpopular with the public and projections of order backlogs beyond a few quarters now suspect.

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repetitiveuser.bsky.social @repetitiveuser.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

This is THE most important question and the answer to it is going to dictate what the outcome ends up looking like worldwide. @roryjohnston.bsky.social really knows his shit

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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📈Crude prices and term structure explode higher amidst Houthi Red Sea advance and strikes that have at least temporarily taken Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West Pipeline offline, while diesel eyes ATHs Summary below, link to full report in reply.

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Super Shoe @shoe.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

We'll start the bidding at $150/bbl

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Faytuks Network @faytuksnetwork.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Imagery analyzed by Faytuks Network indicates a large plume of smoke near Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline south of Medina. Coords: 23.95694412123248, 40.05450611675812

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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 10/09/2026

9/9 My article examines what the earlier Red Sea disruptions tell us about this next phase of the crisis, including oil deliveries to Asia and why recovery takes time. Ships can keep moving while the service becomes less dependable and harder to afford.

linkedin.com

The Hormuz Crisis: What Happens When the Alternatives Begin to Fail? | Ash Oro

Reports that Houthi forces have taken Mokha bring renewed attention to Bab al-Mandeb and the shipping routes through the Red Sea. For Saudi oil moving through Yanbu to avoid Hormuz, this places furthe...

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Ben Collins @bencollins.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

The Onion's office manager Audrey has a niece that is currently 4th in this year's Baby of the Year competition. Bart Harley Jarvis, who is a fucking piece of shit, is currently in first. Let's help Eleanor take out that little terrorist.

babyoftheyear.org

Is Eleanor the Baby of the Year?

One baby will appear in a national ad campaign with The Honest Company, win $25,000, and be celebrated in Variety Magazine.

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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Oil prices pop, diesel crack spreads hit all-time highs, crude backwardation sharply steepened, and the US and Iran exchanged intensified strikes amidst still-rising Hormuz oil flows. Summary below, link to full report in reply.

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Anna Bower @annabower.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

We’re suing to bring transparency back to Trump’s State Department—and you can help! Are you aware of an international agreement that the U.S. may have concluded since Jan. 2025? Have you been unable to locate it on the State Department’s site? Let us know 👇 ⬇️ www.lawfaremedia.org/article/why-...

lawfaremedia.org

Why We’re Suing the State Department Over International Agreements

Lawfare is suing to bring transparency back to international agreements—and you can help.

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Patrick De Haan @gasbuddyguy.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Gulf Coast spot diesel hit a record today. the market is short- buyers bidding up every drop like a housing market with too few homes. the ~$2.50/gal refiner margin isn't a price they set, it's what desperate buyers are paying. higher retail diesel prices coming *coast to coast*

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Scott MacFarlane @macfarlanenews.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

HERE WE GO: Debuting tomorrow at 6am eastern Download and subscribe for enterprise reporting and a quick, efficient and unscripted look at the day ahead podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s...

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The Bulwark @thebulwark.com · 29/08/2026

"It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the HHS secretary sees deaths from outbreaks of diseases we had beaten or contained, like measles and cyclosporiasis, as a form of social hygiene that kills off the weak and susceptible."

lnk.thebulwark.com

RFK Jr.’s Toxic World

The HHS secretary uses fear of contamination to denigrate modern medicine and advance a project rooted in vulgar eugenics.

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Charlie Sykes @sykescharlie.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Trump has created a spoil system. And it could backfire. From today's "To the Contrary" podcast w/ Tom Nichols youtube.com/shorts/zVl28...

youtube.com

Trump's spoil system for friends and cronies

YouTube video by To the Contrary With Charlie Sykes

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Lee West @whodat35.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

Please take a moment and read Lara Korte’s last story that she filed for Stars and Stripes published 3 hours ago. Thank you Lara for your professional dedication and journalistic values. www.stripes.com/branches/nav...