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Reposted by Louise Murphy

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Our report from June explains how the replacement for the triple lock will work (we called it a 'smoothed' triple lock). It's a much better policy than the current triple lock - State Pension is protected from inflation spikes and tracks earnings long term, but the expensive ratchet is removed.

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Simon Pittaway @simonpittaway.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

A core part of diagnosing Britain's malaise is that our post-2007 slowdown in productivity growth was much worse than our peers. That may no longer be true. New ONS data suggests we actually had the *second-fastest* rate of productivity growth in the G7 between 2007 and 2019.

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Cillian Sheehan @cillian-sheehan.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Some tough news for John Healey this morning: August borrowing came in at £18.3bn – that’s up from £15.4bn a year ago and the second highest August on record. This shows why the Chancellor faces a tricky balancing act ahead for the Budget. Short thread…🧵

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

This is one of the key charts from our report out today. PIP only provides 2 levels of support for daily living costs. This means people with very different levels of assessed disability get the same amount of cash.

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

It's great that DWP has published this data (up until today, it had only been published via FOI), and let's hope this is informing sensible policy recommendations in the Timms review.

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

...Around 30% of claimants allocated to a face-to-face PIP assessment switched to a different channel (mostly to a phone assessment), and these claimants tended to receive a higher award on average. (Loads more interesting findings in the full report: www.gov.uk/government/p...)

gov.uk

Health Assessment Channels Trial: 2022 to 2023

To examine whether remote assessment channels drive different award outcomes.

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

5. Finally, DWP also published a randomised trial which concluded that virtual and face-to-face assessment achieve similar outcomes, with results by *allocated* mode of assessment virtually identical. Interestingly, what does seem to matter is claimants who choose to switch channel...

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

...But the share of Child-DLA to PIP reassessments that are paper-based has fallen in the past two years, and this is driving a reduction in the overall award rate for children moving from DLA to PIP (their award rate is down from 87% in 2023-24 to 81% in 2025-26).

Chart showing: Proportion of PIP reassessments for young people aged under 18, by mode of assessment (left), and award rate by mode of assessment (right): England and Wales, 2022-2026

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

4. But there is another interesting story when it comes to paper-based applications. Just over half of young people who face a Child-DLA to PIP reassessment go through a paper-based application, and their success rate is a whopping 95%...

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

...This is largely a selection story: those with severe impairments are most likely to have their benefit decided via a paper-based application, and are also most likely to be awarded health-related benefits. E.g. people with cancer are the group most likely to go through a paper-based application.

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

3. Instead, the biggest difference in outcomes is between paper-based applications and those that go through an assessment. The vast majority of paper-based applications are successful: 99% of WCAs, and 79% of new PIP claims...

Chart showing: Proportion of UC WCA decisions (left) and new PIP claims (right) that result in UC-Health or PIP being awarded: GB/ England and Wales, 2022-2026

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

2. But despite what many believe, phone assessments and face-to-face assessments don't lead to radically different outcomes, and this is particularly true for PIP where the award rate for phone assessments is 41% (vs 39% for those carried out face-to-face).

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

1. Face-to-face appointments are rare and telephone assessments remain the norm, accounting for just over half (56%) of WCA outcomes and four-in-five (79%) of new PIP decisions. Last December the Govt set itself a target of doing 30% of assessments face-to-face - it still has a long way to go!

Chart showing: Proportion of UC WCA decisions (left) and new PIP claims (right), by mode of assessment: GB/ England and Wales, 2022-2026

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

DWP has just published a flurry of new data on how PIP and UC-Health assessments are carried out (face-to-face or via phone, video or paper) and whether this impacts who gets awarded health-related benefits. Five takeaways 🧵

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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

Today’s labour market statistics show that the decent GDP growth from the early summer isn’t (yet) translating into stronger employment and pay, which both remained fairly flat in the latest month. Our @resolutionfoundation.org thread from me and @louisemurphy.bsky.social 🧵...

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Parth Pandya @parthpandya.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

But screens aren't the main driver of the recorded rise in time use data, solo working is. Across the standard 9-to-5, the share of people doing paid work alone rose from around 5% to between 12 and 15% (a near-tripling). (3/5)

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

The hard questions – about how to calibrate entitlement, award rates and reassessments better – are saved for the final report in the autumn. In the meantime, here at @resolutionfoundation.org we'll be publishing major research on how to reform disability benefits later this summer.

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Second, the report recognises that PIP alone "will not always be sufficient", and that support and services matter too. This opens the door to thinking about what the assessment could unlock beyond a monthly cash payment.

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

In other words: participation is the end, and a contribution to costs is the means. The report also argues that a greater emphasis on independent living and participation in society (e.g. through work, volunteering, socialising) would strengthen PIP's aim.

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

First, the steering group has agreed a new policy statement. PIP exists "to assist D/deaf and disabled people, and people with long-term conditions, to reduce the inequalities they face in participating in everyday life through a contribution towards the extra costs of disability."

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

This was just the interim report and there are no concrete recommendations yet – but two findings hint at the direction of travel...

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

The report also flags that the PIP assessment doesn't “fully reflect real-life impacts” of disability in 2026, where many claimants have fluctuating, multiple and less visible conditions. PIP was introduced in 2013 and the assessment hasn’t been updated to reflect the changing nature of disability.

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

So if it isn’t about costs, what does the interim report find? It concludes that “PIP is not working”. Even claimants who receive PIP and value the benefit feel overwhelming negativity and distrust towards the claim process, with many describing it as “dehumanising”.

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Rising costs are a key reason why politicians want to reform PIP. But the Timms review is not overtly a cost-saving exercise. After last year’s failed attempt to cut PIP, the review is being co-produced with disabled people, and its recommendations will fall within current OBR spending projections.

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

The PIP bill has risen accordingly: real-terms spending on working-age disability benefits (PIP and its predecessor, DLA) has doubled from £14bn in 2019-20 to £28bn in 2026-27, and is set to reach £34bn by 2030-31.

Chart showing: Real-terms spending on working-age disability benefits: England and Wales

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Why is this review needed? Put simply, PIP has expanded dramatically in recent years: 4 million people in England & Wales now receive it, up 270,000 in the past year alone, and the caseload has more than doubled since 2019.

Chart showing: Number of PIP cases with entitlement, among new claimants and those who transferred following a DLA reassessment: England and Wales

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

The interim report of the Timms Review of PIP was published this morning, and its conclusion is stark: "PIP is not working." Here's a thread summarising what it says, and what we might expect from the final report in the autumn. 🧵

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

Good to see the Government announce action to reduce the number of 16-17-year-olds who are NEET or 'not known'. While we might expect local labour market conditions to vary, the ability of local authorities to enforce the mandatory participation age should not. www.gov.uk/government/n...

Image of a chart.

FIGURE 15: The proportion of 16-17-year-olds who are NEET or ‘not known’ to their local authority vary considerably across England

Proportion of 16-17-year-olds who are NEET or ‘not known’, in England and for top 10 and bottom 10 local authorities: England, 2025

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

Finally, we shouldn’t forget that pay remains historically very weak. Average real weekly pay is only around £30 above its pre-financial crisis peak – and around £276 below where it would be if the pre-crisis growth in pay had continued. -- Thread from myself from @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social.

Chart showing - Real average weekly earnings (regular pay), actual, pre-recession peak and pre-recession trend: GB

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

This recent weak real pay growth partly reflects slowing nominal earnings growth. The 12-month annual growth measure of regular pay growth now sits at 2.9% – just below the Bank of England’s sustainable rate. This weakens the case for rate rises from the Bank.

Chart showing - Growth in nominal private sector average weekly earnings, change since a year earlier and annualised change compared to three months earlier: GB

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

But this broader picture masks a sharper squeeze in the private sector. Real regular pay in the private sector has been falling since last October. And with inflation expected to rise over the summer, workers should brace for a further squeeze in the coming months.

Chart showing - Annual growth in real average weekly earnings (regular pay), by sector: GB

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

Turning to pay, and today’s stats show a mixed picture. With inflation holding steady yesterday, headline real regular pay growth remained barely positive – just 0.1% in the three months to April.

Chart showing - Annual growth in average weekly earnings (regular pay) and CPIH inflation: GB

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

Vacancies have also fallen, and are well below their pre-pandemic level. In the three months to May, the vacancy rate was 2.2%, compared to the 2019 average of 2.7%.

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

The weakness in the labour market also seems to be showing up in the forms of employment people are doing. The latest Workforce Jobs data shows a huge rise in self-employment in the last few months, while growth in employment among people on zero-hours contracts has outpaced overall employment.

Chart showing - Index of total employment and employment on zero-hours contracts: UK (Feb 2022=100)

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

Payrolled jobs also look weak. The big fall seen in last month’s flash estimate was not revised away, with employment falling by 65,000 between Feb and April. This month's flash estimate for May does look more promising, with employment holding steady between April and May.

Chart showing - Number of paid employees according to real-time PAYE data: UK

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

Not all countries have seen this rise in unemployment. The UK still has a relatively low unemployment rate compared to our neighbours, but our performance is slipping. Our unemployment rate used to be well below the OECD average, but has crept up to almost reach it (4.9% vs 5.0%).

Chart showing - Unemployment rate: selected OECD countries

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

This morning’s data shows a weak labour market: unemployment remains high and real wages are barely growing. The monthly LFS unemployment data is volatile but the big picture is that unemployment has been climbing for the past few years and stood at 4.9% in the three months to April.

Chart showing - Unemployment rate (Labour Force Survey): UK

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

5. Finally, it’s striking that despite PIP being badged a ‘working-age’ benefit, one-in-six (17 per cent) of the caseload are now over State Pension age! You can't claim PIP as a pensioner but existing claimants can keep receiving it. We now have hundreds of thousands of PIP claimants in their 70s.

Chart showing - PIP caseload by age group: England and Wales, April 2019 and April 2026

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

4. But the PIP caseload doesn’t just depend on how many people apply each month – it also matters how long people remain on the benefit. The proportion of PIP reviews that result in the benefit being reduced or removed has fallen over the past few years and is well below its 2019 level.

Chart showing - Proportion of PIP reviews that result in the benefit being reduced or removed, for planned award reviews and those resulting from a change in circumstances: England and Wales

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

3. Of course, not every PIP application is successful. In April 2026, the award rate for new claims stood at 38 per cent. This is well below the award rate seen in the post-pandemic period (it peaked at 48 per cent) and is back to the rate seen in 2019.

Chart showing - Proportion of new claims for PIP that result in PIP being awarded: England and Wales

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

2. And new applications for PIP have risen again and are not far off their post-pandemic peak. In April this year there were 76,000 new claims for PIP – more than double the pre-pandemic (2019) average of 36,000.

Chart showing - Number of monthly PIP clearances, among new applicants: England and Wales

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

1. The PIP caseload continues to grow, and reached 4 million in April this year. This is an increase of 7 per cent, or an extra 270,000 recipients, compared to April 2025. These are almost entirely new claimants, not people migrating from DLA.

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

4 million people in England and Wales now receive PIP. As the Timms Review gets underway, here are five things today's new DWP data tells us about the benefit 🧵

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 29/05/2026

Extraordinary testimony to the Millburn Report about sleeping habits

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Nye Cominetti @nyecominetti.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

If you need persuading of the importance of education funding / structures to UK's NEET problem, this chart was my best attempt at making that point. UK has *higher* % of YP in straight-employment than almost all OECD countries. But still manages higher NEET rates because ed participation so low

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

This is a fantastic report - we are utterly failing too many young people, and it is no wonder that many of them feel fed up with the systems around them

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Simon Pittaway @simonpittaway.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

The UK's run of feel-good economic data came to an abrupt end this morning. The flash composite PMI index for May suggests private-sector activity shrank on the month. Worryingly, this happened despite pre-emptive buying propping up manufacturing. Services shrank at the fastest rate since 2021.

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

I volunteer at TLP every fortnight, listening to people who feel suicidal. I also help analyse the data, and the impact is clear: people feel less suicidal and more supported after 3 months of support. For those of you who like evidence, here's a peer-reviewed paper: psycnet.apa.org/record/2023-...

psycnet.apa.org

APA PsycNet

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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

Suicide is the leading cause of death in men under 50 and all adults under 35, but effective support is often hard to find. The Listening Place offers free, face-to-face, ongoing support to those who feel suicidal. Here's more info about TLP and its founder: www.theguardian.com/society/2026...

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