El Niño will drive severe drought from Indonesia to the Southern Africa and northern South America, with wetter winters from the US Gulf Coast to Southern South America.

Kilometer-scale models, machine learning and model diversity

Paleoclimates provide examples of past climate change that inform estimates of modern warming from greenhouse-gas emissions, known as Earth’s clima...

Supervisor: Dr Rory Bingham Project keywords: climate, oceanography, AMOC, sea-level, AI

The viability of Antarctic ice shelves under low rates and high rates of global warming is modelled to estimate when it will become unfeasible for the ice shelves to maintain their present-day shape.

Abstract. The subpolar gyre is at risk of crossing a tipping point under future climate change associated with the collapse of deep convection. As such, tipping can have significant climate impacts; i...

Abstract. The ocean takes up over 90 % of the excess heat stored in the Earth system as a result of anthropogenic climate change, which has led to sea level rise and an intensification of marine extre...

Scholarly publishing relies on peer review to identify the best science. Yet finding willing and qualified reviewers to evaluate manuscripts has become an increasingly challenging task, possibly even ...

Wave effects introduce high-frequency variability and amplify the air-sea CO2 flux seasonality, with the largest impacts during storms Wave effects enhance carbon storage and amplify hemispheric ...

Abstract. The global ocean takes up over 90 % of the excess heat added to the climate system due to anthropogenic emissions, thereby buffering climate change at Earth's surface. A key metric for quant...

Interannual variability of ocean uptake of carbon dioxide is governed by winter sea ice cover, according to analysis of carbonate chemistry observations along the West Antarctic Peninsula.

Communications Earth & Environment - The 2023 North Atlantic marine heatwave was driven by an extreme phase of internal atmospheric variability but would have been impossible without the doping...

Abstract. The ocean takes up around one-quarter of anthropogenically emitted carbon and is projected to remain the main carbon sink once global temperatures stabilize. Despite the importance of this n...

Observations and climate models suggest that the global sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 was not unexpected and would have been nearly impossible without anthropogenic warming.

— 2-year Postoc opportunity — The Future Evolution of Global Ocean Overturning Cells at Different Global Warming Levels Deadline for application : 1 April 2025 Supervisors: Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Rola...

The AMOC is crucial for the global ocean overturning circulation and controls the climate around the North Atlantic. Here, the authors use 24 Earth System Models from the CMIP6 to demonstrate tha...

Independent statistical reconstructions of the global mean surface temperature from either ocean or land data show that existing estimates of early-twentieth-century ocean surface temperatures are too...

Improved understanding of marine heatwave predictability and impacts requires analysis of these extremes at full ocean depth, using models and observations capturing their key drivers at the relevant ...

Data from the fossil record, together with computational modelling, are used to assess the response of foraminifera (marine zooplankton) to temperature changes through time and to predict how well the...

Seasonal climatologies of Antarctic Winter Water (WW) and its properties are mapped using 18 years of in situ observations Observations reveal the distinct seasonal and regional characteristics o...

Ocean deoxygenation since the late 1960s has been partially mitigated by wind-driven oxygenation, particularly in the Southern Ocean. The predicted slowdown in wind intensification may therefore accel...