Sign in

Leon Krause

@leonkrause.bsky.social
209 followers 424 following 97 posts

PhD candidate @ RISC/University of Frankfurt (@fgz-risc.bsky.social, @goetheuni.bsky.social) & research fellow @ PRIF (@prif.org). Public opinion, foreign and security policy, war, quant methods. I research how societies react to wars.

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Leon Krause
Alejandra Caraballo @esqueer.net · 27/09/2026
The before and after it's even more haunting.
3428441622
Reposted by Leon Krause
Robert Pausch @bertpsch.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
„Mit solchen Worten schadet man der Erinnerungskultur mehr als der Linken. Man kann schließlich nicht auf der einen Seite die Singularität des Holocausts betonen und auf der anderen Seite Auschwitz als tagespolitisches Kleingeld benutzen, wenn man nur Elif Eralp bekämpfen will“
19396161
Reposted by Leon Krause
The Guardian @theguardian.com · 21/08/2026
Gun stash discovered in German forest believed to be linked to Russia, say reports
theguardian.com
Gun stash discovered in German forest believed to be linked to Russia, say reports
Authorities believe handguns found in forest near Berlin were ⁠to be used ⁠to ​carry out assassinations for Russian intelligence, Sueddeutsche reports German security authorities discovered handguns stashed in ⁠a forest near Berlin last year that they believe were ⁠to be used ⁠to ​carry out assassinations on behalf of Russian intelligence, Süddeutsche Zeitung reported on ⁠Friday. The Russian embassy did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Continue reading...
510537
Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
One comment on recurring attacks on "left-wing NGOs": NGOs work on issues underrepresented in everyday politics: environmental protection, women, queer, and migrant rights, etc. They exist because there is perceived gap between relevance and influence, and because citizens want to change that.
120
Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
And as in every summer break, there is someone (this year: me) who misclicks on their absence mail settings and now has informed the whole universe about their time off.
020
Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
I just stumbled upon this graph, and given today's approval ratings of PMs/presidents, this really feels like it's from another world.
010
Reposted by Leon Krause
Gabriela Greilinger @gabrielagreilinger.com · 19/07/2026
It's 2026, and the International Society of Political Psychology fails to include a single woman on its panel. However, they apparently are brave enough to include a professor who has been found to have violated his university's anti-discrimination and anti-harassment policy.
A screenshot of ISPP's 2026 manel
19830
Reposted by Leon Krause
The Guardian @theguardian.com · 15/07/2026
‘When she turns eight they will take her’: rising number of Afghan girls being sold into child marriage
theguardian.com
‘When she turns eight they will take her’: rising number of Afghan girls being sold into child marriage
Afghanistan is seeing a resurgence in underage brides and mothers as desperate families sell their children in order to eat
1411483
Reposted by Leon Krause
Petter Törnberg @pettertornberg.com · 07/07/2026
‘Polarization’ has become the master concept for diagnosing our current democratic crisis. But this is not polarization. It is the radicalization of the political right. By misdiagnosing it, we risk becoming complicit in the crisis. 🧵 Just out in Perspectives on Politics doi.org/10.1017/S153...
4834451428
Reposted by Leon Krause
Laura Jedeed @laurajedeed.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
When Trump went to war with Iran, I watched every speech anyone in the administration gave and made a chart of every reason given for going to war "Eliminate ballistic capability" was the #1 reason given: more even than preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon
docs.google.com
Iran War Reasons Chart.xlsx
642571884
Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
Germany‘s defeat in the UNSC seat election shows how disconnected most German foreign policy elites are from global public opinion. The reputation is significantly damaged, and if it wants to remain relevant in foreign affairs, it must pay closer attention to the consequences of its actions.
030
Reposted by Leon Krause
derek guy @dieworkwear.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
i literally just wanted to own a two bedroom home in a walkable neighborhood where i can have three cats and a dog and wear nice outfits to go feed pigeons and now society is about to collapse
655206555
Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Rawls’ Veil of Ignorance, but UK party edition
130
Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Game over
110
Reposted by Leon Krause
PRIF @prif.org · 06/05/2026
One chokepoint, global compounding effects: 18 PRIF researchers show how the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz affects different regions and intersects with conflict dynamics. Read now on #PRIFblog ⤵️ blog.prif.org/en/2026/05/0...
blog.prif.org
The Strait of Hormuz in Perspective: One Global Chokepoint, Multiple Vulnerabilities, Compounded Effects - PRIF BLOG
The Strait of Hormuz has been blocked by both Iran and the US. The result is a disruption of a large share of the supply of global crude oil and gas, but also petrochemical feedstock materials for fer...
145
Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Can we please stop interpreting these weekly „how would you vote“ polls as sacred truths, thank you
000
Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Kein Doktorand vor mir hat so etwas ertragen müssen.
1142
Reposted by Leon Krause
Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
“What has gone missing are the institutional consequences that disapproval used to trigger. Public opinion is working. The machinery that once converted public opinion into accountability is not. The jury came back. The foreman spoke and then everyone went out to lunch, including the accused.”
11763195
Reposted by Leon Krause
Helen Kennedy @helenkennedy.com · 22/04/2026
Priceless post from the official White House social media
Margo Martin
@MargoMartin47
X.com
Congratulations, Georgia Women's Tennis!

The photo shows Trump and five white dudes in red ties standing in front of and completely blocking 10 young women
229100492730
Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
I discussed the use of AI with my students today. What really stood out to me is that they are as concerned/confused/irritated as we are. We shouldn’t assume that most of them will use AI to cheat, and instead develop policies in class that establish a shared understanding of how to use AI.
130
Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
YouGov finally starts to ask the important questions
110
Reposted by Leon Krause
Robert Ross @robert-m-ross.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
In a new study my collaborators and I focus on this alternative hypothesis. We asked participants if this statement is true or false: “The Canadian Armed Forces have been secretly developing an elite army of genetically engineered, super intelligent, giant raccoons to invade nearby countries”.
43410
Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
020
Reposted by Leon Krause
European News @eunews.social · 09/04/2026
Poll: More Europeans see US as threat than China Washington outranks Beijing as a threat in Spain, Italy, Belgium and Germany, according to POLITICO Pulse survey.
politico.eu
Poll: More Europeans see US as threat than China
Washington outranks Beijing as a threat in Spain, Italy, Belgium and Germany, according to POLITICO Pulse survey.
36736
Reposted by Leon Krause
Ryan Goodman @rgoodlaw.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
Difficult to describe how unusual it is for @icrc.org to speak publicly like this. "Heavy explosive weapons with wide-area effects struck densely populated urban areas, including the capital Beirut, without effective advance warnings." ICRC Outraged by Deadly Strikes in Densely Populated Areas
icrc.org
Lebanon: ICRC outraged by deadly strikes in densely populated areas
The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) is outraged by the devastating death and destruction in densely populated areas across Lebanon today following intensified military operations.
311258711
Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
A ceasefire deal ordered from Wish
000
Reposted by Leon Krause
Hendrik Simon @hendrikpsimon.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
📕 Mein neues Buch "Das Recht der Gewalt. Warum Waffen allein keinen Frieden schaffen" erscheint am 15. Juli 2026 @reclamverlag.bsky.social Darin beschäftige ich mich mit Völkerrecht, Krieg und Frieden - von Thukydides bis in die jüngste Gegenwart. 1(2 Mehr hier: www.reclam.de/produktdetai...
reclam.de
Das Recht der Gewalt. Warum Waffen allein keinen Frieden schaffen
Völkerrecht, Krieg und Frieden in Zeiten der Zeitenwende
1119
Reposted by Leon Krause
Kampf mit Kette @kampfmitkette.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
okay hear me out
363921860
Reposted by Leon Krause
Marisa Kabas @marisakabas.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
God help us.
A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!
48761391175
Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
A ton of great thoughts in this 🧵, especially the engagement with some of the fundamental literature about public opinion in democracies
000
Reposted by Leon Krause
Trita Parsi @tparsi.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
Disgraceful! The US/Israel just bombed Sharif University in Tehran. This is not only Iran's best university, but also a top 100 global university in the field of Civil Engineering. It has also been a center of student opposition to the Iranian gov And Trump just bombed it...
401433789
Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
If there is one significant factor across all studies about public opinion on war then it is that the American public really dislikes military casualties. Let’s see how this story develops.
010
Reposted by Leon Krause
Joerg Lau @joerglau.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Beirut yesterday (Guardian)
5204
Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
This. Ich hab auch das Gefühl, viele Männer verstehen gar nicht, wie heftig die ganze Geschichte auch unbeteiligte Frauen trifft. Das reiht sich ein in eine lange Liste (Epstein, Pelicot, Rammstein, etc.), die Frauen zeigt, dass sie nirgendwo sicher sind. Das ist brutal.
0212
Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
das ist wirklich übel
010
Reposted by Leon Krause
Lorenz Meyer @thereallorenzmeyer.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
Das Sondervermögen wurde mit dem Versprechen der Zusätzlichkeit durchgesetzt. Jetzt zeigen Ifo und IW: So gut wie alles zweckentfremdet, reiner Verschiebebahnhof. Die Regierung vergibt nicht nur eine historische Chance, sie schenkt den Rechten das Narrativ vom unfähigen Staat. Was für ein Desaster.
792510775
Reposted by Leon Krause
The Guardian @theguardian.com · 14/03/2026
Entire families wiped out and towns emptied as Israel’s war on Lebanon intensifies
theguardian.com
Entire families wiped out and towns emptied as Israel’s war on Lebanon intensifies
Communities displaced and destroyed while death toll rises faster than during any previous war in Lebanon For Batoul Hamdan and her two children, seven-month-old Fatima and Jihad, three, Monday’s iftar, the evening meal that breaks the daily fast during Ramadan, was special. For a week, they had eaten to the sounds of bombs in their home in Arab Salim. Hamdan eventually decided to leave for Al-Nimiriya, the sleepy town where she had grown up. Surrounded by her parents and siblings in the family home, she hoped they could finally enjoy the festive mood of Ramadan. Continue reading...
26226216
Reposted by Leon Krause
Rahel Freiburghaus @rfrbrghs.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
„The USA loses its long-term status as a liberal democracy – for the first time in over 50 years. […] The speed with which American democracy is currently dismantled is unprecedented in modern history“ (V-Dem 2026)
312670
Reposted by Leon Krause
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
Atrocity upon atrocity. Every detail here is worse than the last. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...
theguardian.com
Israeli police kill two young Palestinian boys and their parents in West Bank
Mother, father and brothers aged five and seven shot in the head as they returned from Ramadan shopping trip
9305165
Reposted by Leon Krause
Cord Schmelzle @cordschmelzle.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
Mit Jürgen Habermas ist einer der Riesen von uns gegangen, von deren Schultern wir Zwerge in die Welt gucken.
0111
Reposted by Leon Krause
Chris Murphy @chrismurphyct.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
I was in a 2 hour briefing today on the Iran War. All the briefings are closed, because Trump can't defend this war in public. I obviously can't disclose classified info, but you deserve to know how incoherent and incomplete these war plans are. 1/ Here's what I can share:
514177357129
Reposted by Leon Krause
George Conway ⚖️🇺🇸 @gtconway.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
479175805159
Reposted by Leon Krause
Hanna Herbst @hhumorlos.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Ein Politiker sexualisiert Schulmädchen und die Republik greift die Frau an, die das öffentlich gemacht hat. Und ihr tut so, als würde euch Epstein schockieren. Das ist genau das Klima, das sowas überhaupt über Jahre hinweg ermöglicht hat.
7554461471
Reposted by Leon Krause
Simon P. Couch @simonpcouch.com · 05/03/2026
Today we're releasing AI for RStudio. It's really, really good—I'd encourage you to point it at the messiest data sources you have and see what it can do. www.simonpcouch.com/blog/2026-03...
A screenshot of an RStudio window. On the left-hand side is a new pain called Posit Assistant. The Posit Assistant had recently run code making a lat-lon plot of Washington state, colored by whether the point had been marked as forested or not.
711431
Reposted by Leon Krause
PRIF @prif.org · 05/03/2026
eLearning 2.0: our fully revised course on Arms Control, Disarmament, and Non-Proliferation is now online! The new version features fresh content, more expert diversity, a new user-friendly design, and flexible learning. Find the course here: nonproliferation-elearning.eu @eunpdc.bsky.social
Screenshot: A scale filled with the same icons on both sides. Among them are tanks, guns, and airplanes. On the left side of the scale, all icons are blue, while on the right side, all icons are red.
075
Reposted by Leon Krause
Cas Mudde @casmudde.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Great blog post by @gelliottmorris.com which is backed by decades of academic research. How you ask a question impacts how people answer the question! This has important consequences for how to think about puic opinion and how to treat opinion polls. Short 🧵
gelliottmorris.com
Many Americans hold contradictory opinions on the same policies
Our new poll finds question wording can swing opinion by 20+ points on immigration, the budget, and transgender rights. That's a problem for people who use polls to tell politicians what voters want.
711541
Reposted by Leon Krause
DVPW Early Career Gruppe Internationale Beziehungen @ecib-dvpw.de · 02/03/2026
Die 18. ECIB Tagung war ein voller Erfolg! Innovative Ansätze, lebhafte Diskussionen und drei Tage, die die Bandbreite der #IB gezeigt haben. Besonders dankbar sind wir unseren Diskutant:innen, deren Input unseren Austausch so wertvoll gemacht hat. Bis zum nächsten Mal!
Etwa 30 Teilnehmende aufgestellt vor einem See für ein Gruppenfoto
1154
Reposted by Leon Krause
Gershom Gorenberg גרשום גורנברג @gershomg.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Page 1 ad in Haaretz today: Settler pogroms against Palestinians in WBank are war crimes. Prime minister responsible for not stopping them. Orders to army officers to allow these actions are illegally & must be refused. Among those signing: Former Likud justice ministers Dan Meridor & Meir Shitreet
25227
Reposted by Leon Krause
Hendrik Simon @hendrikpsimon.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
Make Monroe Great Again?! Nun auch online auf @faznet.bsky.social: Mein Beitrag zur zweischneidigen Geschichte der Monroe-Doktrin. www.faz.net/aktuell/feui... cc @fgz-risc.bsky.social @prif.org @goetheuni.bsky.social
faz.net
Amerikas Hegemonie: zur Geschichte der Monroe-Doktrin
Unter Donald Trump erlebt die Monroe-Doktrin ein Comeback zur Legitimation US-amerikanischer Hegemonie. Dabei hatte sie auch immer eine antiimperiale Seite.
056