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Leon Krause

@leonkrause.bsky.social
208 followers 424 following 99 posts

PhD candidate @ RISC/University of Frankfurt (@fgz-risc.bsky.social, @goetheuni.bsky.social) & research fellow @ PRIF (@prif.org). Public opinion, foreign and security policy, war, quant methods. I research how societies react to wars.

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Reposted by Leon Krause
Cord Schmelzle @cordschmelzle.bsky.social · 15h
Noch kämpfe ich mit den Fahnen, aber darauf freue ich mich wirklich sehr! Wäre schön, mit Euch am 30.11. über mein kleines grünes Buch zu sprechen!
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Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Article: ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu
Bewitched sleep: Russians’ views on Ukraine and the world – European Council on Foreign Relations
New research shows Russians see little prospect of influencing the war in Ukraine, but expect relations with Europe to improve in the future.
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Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
A new ECFR article about Russian public opinion also asked participants to compare leaders to plants and animals and I think the answers for Trump are hilarious. I must admit parrot and orangutan are excellent choices.
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Alejandra Caraballo @esqueer.net · 27/09/2026
The before and after it's even more haunting.
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Robert Pausch @bertpsch.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
„Mit solchen Worten schadet man der Erinnerungskultur mehr als der Linken. Man kann schließlich nicht auf der einen Seite die Singularität des Holocausts betonen und auf der anderen Seite Auschwitz als tagespolitisches Kleingeld benutzen, wenn man nur Elif Eralp bekämpfen will“
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The Guardian @theguardian.com · 21/08/2026
Gun stash discovered in German forest believed to be linked to Russia, say reports
theguardian.com
Gun stash discovered in German forest believed to be linked to Russia, say reports
Authorities believe handguns found in forest near Berlin were ⁠to be used ⁠to ​carry out assassinations for Russian intelligence, Sueddeutsche reports German security authorities discovered handguns stashed in ⁠a forest near Berlin last year that they believe were ⁠to be used ⁠to ​carry out assassinations on behalf of Russian intelligence, Süddeutsche Zeitung reported on ⁠Friday. The Russian embassy did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Continue reading...
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Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
That's why there are, for example, only few domestic economic NGOs, because (big) businesses have other ways to influence politics, e.g. by lobbying. Complaining about "left-wing NGOs" misunderstands why these NGOs exist in the first place.
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Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
One comment on recurring attacks on "left-wing NGOs": NGOs work on issues underrepresented in everyday politics: environmental protection, women, queer, and migrant rights, etc. They exist because there is perceived gap between relevance and influence, and because citizens want to change that.
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Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
And as in every summer break, there is someone (this year: me) who misclicks on their absence mail settings and now has informed the whole universe about their time off.
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Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
I just stumbled upon this graph, and given today's approval ratings of PMs/presidents, this really feels like it's from another world.
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Gabriela Greilinger @gabrielagreilinger.com · 19/07/2026
It's 2026, and the International Society of Political Psychology fails to include a single woman on its panel. However, they apparently are brave enough to include a professor who has been found to have violated his university's anti-discrimination and anti-harassment policy.
A screenshot of ISPP's 2026 manel
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The Guardian @theguardian.com · 15/07/2026
‘When she turns eight they will take her’: rising number of Afghan girls being sold into child marriage
theguardian.com
‘When she turns eight they will take her’: rising number of Afghan girls being sold into child marriage
Afghanistan is seeing a resurgence in underage brides and mothers as desperate families sell their children in order to eat
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Petter Törnberg @pettertornberg.com · 07/07/2026
‘Polarization’ has become the master concept for diagnosing our current democratic crisis. But this is not polarization. It is the radicalization of the political right. By misdiagnosing it, we risk becoming complicit in the crisis. 🧵 Just out in Perspectives on Politics doi.org/10.1017/S153...
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Laura Jedeed @laurajedeed.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
When Trump went to war with Iran, I watched every speech anyone in the administration gave and made a chart of every reason given for going to war "Eliminate ballistic capability" was the #1 reason given: more even than preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon
docs.google.com
Iran War Reasons Chart.xlsx
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Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
Wunderbar. Herzlichen Glückwunsch, lieber Cord. Freue mich sehr darauf, es bald lesen zu können.
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Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
Germany‘s defeat in the UNSC seat election shows how disconnected most German foreign policy elites are from global public opinion. The reputation is significantly damaged, and if it wants to remain relevant in foreign affairs, it must pay closer attention to the consequences of its actions.
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derek guy @dieworkwear.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
i literally just wanted to own a two bedroom home in a walkable neighborhood where i can have three cats and a dog and wear nice outfits to go feed pigeons and now society is about to collapse
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Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Na ja, wenn man Merz‘ Positionierung im Gaza- und Iran-Krieg als relevant für eine Zustimmung hält, wäre es schon der Bundesregierung anzulasten. Und v.a. Gaza und die deutschen Waffenlieferungen an Israel sind m.E. in Ländern des Globalen Südens immer noch ziemlich präsent.
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Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Rawls’ Veil of Ignorance, but UK party edition
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Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Game over
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PRIF @prif.org · 06/05/2026
One chokepoint, global compounding effects: 18 PRIF researchers show how the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz affects different regions and intersects with conflict dynamics. Read now on #PRIFblog ⤵️ blog.prif.org/en/2026/05/0...
blog.prif.org
The Strait of Hormuz in Perspective: One Global Chokepoint, Multiple Vulnerabilities, Compounded Effects - PRIF BLOG
The Strait of Hormuz has been blocked by both Iran and the US. The result is a disruption of a large share of the supply of global crude oil and gas, but also petrochemical feedstock materials for fer...
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Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Can we please stop interpreting these weekly „how would you vote“ polls as sacred truths, thank you
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Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Kein Doktorand vor mir hat so etwas ertragen müssen.
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Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
“What has gone missing are the institutional consequences that disapproval used to trigger. Public opinion is working. The machinery that once converted public opinion into accountability is not. The jury came back. The foreman spoke and then everyone went out to lunch, including the accused.”
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Helen Kennedy @helenkennedy.com · 22/04/2026
Priceless post from the official White House social media
Margo Martin
@MargoMartin47
X.com
Congratulations, Georgia Women's Tennis!

The photo shows Trump and five white dudes in red ties standing in front of and completely blocking 10 young women
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Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
There need to be some strict rules, for example that fabricated citations are not tolerable. But aside from these hard rules, students must have confidence in how AI is handled by lecturers. Otherwise, they will be scared of doing their work, and this will massively affect their learning.
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Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
My learning is to establish an atmosphere of trust, one which does not assume that most students will use AI to write their texts, but instead assuming that most of them will not. I think it’s crucial to show students that you trust them, and not that you suspect them automatically.
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Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Many of them were really frustrated by different rules in different classes, sometimes very strict, sometimes incentivising AI use strongly. Also, many were scared to do mistakes, e.g., being flagged for using AI even if they didn’t.
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Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
I discussed the use of AI with my students today. What really stood out to me is that they are as concerned/confused/irritated as we are. We shouldn’t assume that most of them will use AI to cheat, and instead develop policies in class that establish a shared understanding of how to use AI.
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Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
Also this is hilarious
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Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
YouGov finally starts to ask the important questions
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Robert Ross @robert-m-ross.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
In a new study my collaborators and I focus on this alternative hypothesis. We asked participants if this statement is true or false: “The Canadian Armed Forces have been secretly developing an elite army of genetically engineered, super intelligent, giant raccoons to invade nearby countries”.
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Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
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European News @eunews.social · 09/04/2026
Poll: More Europeans see US as threat than China Washington outranks Beijing as a threat in Spain, Italy, Belgium and Germany, according to POLITICO Pulse survey.
politico.eu
Poll: More Europeans see US as threat than China
Washington outranks Beijing as a threat in Spain, Italy, Belgium and Germany, according to POLITICO Pulse survey.
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Ryan Goodman @rgoodlaw.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
Difficult to describe how unusual it is for @icrc.org to speak publicly like this. "Heavy explosive weapons with wide-area effects struck densely populated urban areas, including the capital Beirut, without effective advance warnings." ICRC Outraged by Deadly Strikes in Densely Populated Areas
icrc.org
Lebanon: ICRC outraged by deadly strikes in densely populated areas
The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) is outraged by the devastating death and destruction in densely populated areas across Lebanon today following intensified military operations.
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Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
A ceasefire deal ordered from Wish
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Hendrik Simon @hendrikpsimon.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
📕 Mein neues Buch "Das Recht der Gewalt. Warum Waffen allein keinen Frieden schaffen" erscheint am 15. Juli 2026 @reclamverlag.bsky.social Darin beschäftige ich mich mit Völkerrecht, Krieg und Frieden - von Thukydides bis in die jüngste Gegenwart. 1(2 Mehr hier: www.reclam.de/produktdetai...
reclam.de
Das Recht der Gewalt. Warum Waffen allein keinen Frieden schaffen
Völkerrecht, Krieg und Frieden in Zeiten der Zeitenwende
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Kampf mit Kette @kampfmitkette.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
okay hear me out
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Marisa Kabas @marisakabas.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
God help us.
A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!
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Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
A ton of great thoughts in this 🧵, especially the engagement with some of the fundamental literature about public opinion in democracies
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Trita Parsi @tparsi.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
Disgraceful! The US/Israel just bombed Sharif University in Tehran. This is not only Iran's best university, but also a top 100 global university in the field of Civil Engineering. It has also been a center of student opposition to the Iranian gov And Trump just bombed it...
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Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
If there is one significant factor across all studies about public opinion on war then it is that the American public really dislikes military casualties. Let’s see how this story develops.
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Joerg Lau @joerglau.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Beirut yesterday (Guardian)
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Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
This. Ich hab auch das Gefühl, viele Männer verstehen gar nicht, wie heftig die ganze Geschichte auch unbeteiligte Frauen trifft. Das reiht sich ein in eine lange Liste (Epstein, Pelicot, Rammstein, etc.), die Frauen zeigt, dass sie nirgendwo sicher sind. Das ist brutal.
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Leon Krause @leonkrause.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
das ist wirklich übel
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Lorenz Meyer @thereallorenzmeyer.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
Das Sondervermögen wurde mit dem Versprechen der Zusätzlichkeit durchgesetzt. Jetzt zeigen Ifo und IW: So gut wie alles zweckentfremdet, reiner Verschiebebahnhof. Die Regierung vergibt nicht nur eine historische Chance, sie schenkt den Rechten das Narrativ vom unfähigen Staat. Was für ein Desaster.
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The Guardian @theguardian.com · 14/03/2026
Entire families wiped out and towns emptied as Israel’s war on Lebanon intensifies
theguardian.com
Entire families wiped out and towns emptied as Israel’s war on Lebanon intensifies
Communities displaced and destroyed while death toll rises faster than during any previous war in Lebanon For Batoul Hamdan and her two children, seven-month-old Fatima and Jihad, three, Monday’s iftar, the evening meal that breaks the daily fast during Ramadan, was special. For a week, they had eaten to the sounds of bombs in their home in Arab Salim. Hamdan eventually decided to leave for Al-Nimiriya, the sleepy town where she had grown up. Surrounded by her parents and siblings in the family home, she hoped they could finally enjoy the festive mood of Ramadan. Continue reading...
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Rahel Freiburghaus @rfrbrghs.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
„The USA loses its long-term status as a liberal democracy – for the first time in over 50 years. […] The speed with which American democracy is currently dismantled is unprecedented in modern history“ (V-Dem 2026)
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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
Atrocity upon atrocity. Every detail here is worse than the last. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...
theguardian.com
Israeli police kill two young Palestinian boys and their parents in West Bank
Mother, father and brothers aged five and seven shot in the head as they returned from Ramadan shopping trip
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Cord Schmelzle @cordschmelzle.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
Mit Jürgen Habermas ist einer der Riesen von uns gegangen, von deren Schultern wir Zwerge in die Welt gucken.
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