iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Lynne Kiesling @knowledgeproblem.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

There's a literature in political economy on bureaucratic rigidity and the pacing problem. Classic work here comes from Anthony Downs, and it's striking how relevant his bureaucracy life cycle model is to electricity regulation. 📉📈 and 🔌💡 knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/the-rigidi...

knowledgeproblem.substack.com

The Rigidity Cycle and the Pacing Problem

Anthony Downs on bureaucratic cruft

091

Reposted by Lynne Kiesling

Jon Rauch @jonrauch.bsky.social · 27/03/2025

CBO's new long-term budget outlook. It's...not good. Record debt, record deficits, record interest. Debt spiral (interest outpacing GDP growth) begins in 2045. www.crfb.org/papers/analy...

crfb.org

Analysis of CBO’s March 2025 Long-Term Budget Outlook | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

Today, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its March 2025 Long-Term Budget Outlook, which builds off its

0145

Reposted by Lynne Kiesling

NBER @nber.org · 26/03/2025

Half of all new US EV registrations, 2012–2023, went to the top 10 percent most Democratic counties, from Lucas W. Davis, Jing Li, and Katalin Springel www.nber.org/papers/w33591

0144

Reposted by Lynne Kiesling

Sammy Roth @sammyroth.bsky.social · 27/03/2025

On this week's Boiling Point podcast, I moderate the Great Rooftop Solar Debate! The leader of CA's solar trade group and a UC Berkeley economist debate solar incentives, and things get intense. My attempts at finding common ground do not work. Listen in: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

podcasts.apple.com

The Great Rooftop Solar Debate

Podcast Episode · Boiling Point · 03/27/2025 · 45m

52610

Lynne Kiesling @knowledgeproblem.bsky.social · 18/03/2025

Growing demand for electricity and the adoption of renewables are transforming the U.S. grid. Join @nationalacademies.org for a webinar series to explore emerging challenges for the future electricity system, with a focus on improving subnational decision-making, innovation, and supply chains.📉📈 🔌💡

nationalacademies.org

020

Reposted by Lynne Kiesling

Ric O'Connell @ricoconnell.bsky.social · 21/02/2025

#EnergySky friends, we are releasing a set of papers today outlining how #SurplusInterconnection can unlock GW of new resources. Surplus is a way to plug wind and solar into existing thermal plants. Check out our papers, along with a cool interactive dashboard, here: www.scarcitytosurplus.com

scarcitytosurplus.com

From Scarcity to Surplus: A Renewable Energy Revolution

Exploring innovative solutions for renewable energy deployment

12711

Lynne Kiesling @knowledgeproblem.bsky.social · 21/02/2025

Power systems are transforming—but outdated regulations are holding back innovation. 📢 Innovating Future Power Systems: From Vision to Action explores how to drive a clean, reliable, and consumer-driven energy future. 🔹 Read the full report: www.aei.org/research-pro...

aei.org

050

Reposted by Lynne Kiesling

Jeff St John @jeffstjohn.bsky.social · 20/02/2025

crazy good and detailed explanation of the transmission problems we face here in the good old U.S.A....

1123

Reposted by Lynne Kiesling

Douglas Irwin @douglasirwin.bsky.social · 02/02/2025

If there is any doubt that tariffs are passed through to consumers, the cost of propane to heat my house just went up by the amount of the tariff

19547651753

Reposted by Lynne Kiesling

Ben Golub @bengolub.bsky.social · 02/02/2025

Modern supply chains don't look like trade theory 101! They involve constant border crossings, each now hit by tariffs. Tariffs raise prices, but the more important thing they do is disrupt supply relationships. 1/

341061392

Reposted by Lynne Kiesling

Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 02/02/2025

What could possibly go wrong, you ask? 😬

314538

Lynne Kiesling @knowledgeproblem.bsky.social · 31/01/2025

Also kind of a love letter to @aripeskoe.bsky.social's 2023 Energy Law Journal article on the utility transmission syndicate.

030

Lynne Kiesling @knowledgeproblem.bsky.social · 31/01/2025

The combination of monopoly regulation and RTO governance creates perverse transmission investment incentives. A slight diversion from my RTO series to provide useful background to those new to electricity policy. 📉📈 and 🔌💡 knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...

knowledgeproblem.substack.com

Regional Transmission Organizations as Market Platforms III

Regulation and perverse transmission incentives

151

Reposted by Lynne Kiesling

Kevin Stevens @handle.invalid · 25/01/2025

Want to see what data center demand has done to power demand forecasts in just 12 months? Check out PJMs forecast for summer and winter peaks in 2025 compared to 2024. The difference between the 2032 forecast this year and last year is almost 40,000 MW. 🔌💡

5163

Lynne Kiesling @knowledgeproblem.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

I only surf once every two years and love it (and picked it up surprisingly quickly!). If I spent more time in warm water places I'd do it every time.

020

Lynne Kiesling @knowledgeproblem.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

I'm starting off 2025 by writing a series about RTOs as wholesale market platforms. Part II: institutional path dependence entrenches the governance power of incumbents. 📉📈 and 🔌💡 knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...

knowledgeproblem.substack.com

Regional Transmission Organizations as Market Platforms II

Why Power Systems Struggle with Change: Perverse Incentives and Outdated Rules

041

Lynne Kiesling @knowledgeproblem.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

Of course. But the scope of my analysis was the thread from US investor owned utilities to US utility power pools to US RTOs. The scope of my analysis was not the international origins of wholesale markets. I may write that separately, although I wrote that plenty 24 years ago.

100

Reposted by Lynne Kiesling

Amy Harder @amyaharder.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

Fueled partly by energy demand for AI, power utilities projected last year that electricity demand would grow FIVE times faster over the next five years compared to forecasts made two years ago. www.ciphernews.com/articles/dat... by @catclifford.bsky.social in Cipher News

ciphernews.com

Data centers drive up projected electricity growth in the U.S. - Cipher News

In just two years, the growth of data centers — fueled in part by artificial intelligence’s rapid integration into our livelihoods — have dramatically reshaped expectations for future energy consumpti...

033

Lynne Kiesling @knowledgeproblem.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

I'm starting off 2025, a year when I'll write a lot about the role of markets and innovation in enabling our future power systems, by writing a series about RTOs as wholesale market platforms. Part I: economic history. 📉📈 and 🔌💡 knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...

knowledgeproblem.substack.com

Regional Transmission Organizations as Market Platforms I

What's the origin story of wholesale power markets?

1143

Lynne Kiesling @knowledgeproblem.bsky.social · 03/01/2025

Thanks Sam! Just back from vacation and catching up :-). I talked about the EEI (2013) report in the "from the archives" subsequent discussion. It'll be interesting to see where this goes this year ...

010

Lynne Kiesling @knowledgeproblem.bsky.social · 16/12/2024

In my second post on grid defection: Since 2014, has it become more feasible, and more likely? 📉📈 and 🔌💡 knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/economics-...

knowledgeproblem.substack.com

Economics of Grid Defection II

Is it more feasible, and more likely?

092

Reposted by Lynne Kiesling

Carl Lenox @alphaconstant.bsky.social · 15/12/2024

Long overdue super 🧵on why residential grid-interactive V2X is not (yet) a thing in the US. 1) Interconnection (IX) 2) Rate design 3) Vehicle capabilities & standards adoption #energysky

23513

Reposted by Lynne Kiesling

Ed Dolan @dolanecon.bsky.social · 14/12/2024

Elon’s ambitions should not serve as cover for Dems to abdicate responsibility for thinking seriously about government reform, says @pahlkadot.bsky.social "Let’s not pretend that change was going to come from Democrats if they’d only had another term." www.eatingpolicy.com/p/bringing-e...

1102

Lynne Kiesling @knowledgeproblem.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

A decade ago the talk of electricity policy was grid defection. The underlying economic concept: contestability. The first of a four-part series on grid defection's decade. 📉📈 and 🔌💡 knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/economics-...

knowledgeproblem.substack.com

Economics of Grid Defection I

Grid defection and contestability

092

Reposted by Lynne Kiesling

Tim Latimer @timlatimer.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

A lot of people still don’t realize that dramatic cost reductions in geothermal is something happening *right now*, not theoretically in the future. Here is a look at the cost numbers published by NREL every year for Deep Enhanced Geothermal. A 50% improvement in 2024 with a lot more to come.

2433799

Reposted by Lynne Kiesling

Henry Farrell @himself.bsky.social · 09/12/2024

The Management Singularity - LLMs aren't going to transform the Fate of Mankind but they will remake how big organizations work. www.programmablemutter.com/p/the-manage...

programmablemutter.com

The Management Singularity

LLMs will transform the world - but quietly

88218

Lynne Kiesling @knowledgeproblem.bsky.social · 08/12/2024

Welcome to Chicago; you've brought good weather with you, welcome after our recent polar vortex.

100

Reposted by Lynne Kiesling

Arnab Datta @arnabdatta.bsky.social · 08/12/2024

Climate advocates might feel hopeless with Pres-elect Trump returning to the WH. They shouldn’t. I wrote about how to make progress for NYT 1. Focus on innovation and industrial strategy 2. Be pragmatic about fossil fuels 3. Expand the interests that gain from decarbonization

1311228

Reposted by Lynne Kiesling

John D. Wilson @wilson-energy.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

US power demand now projected to grow by 128 GW by 2029! Last year, Grid Strategies broke the news that utilities and system operators had doubled their forecasts for electric demand growth from 2022 – a sudden jump driven by data centers and industrial load, among other factors.🧵 1/4 🔌💡

Map showing six regions with highest load growth: ERCOT (Texas), PJM (Northern Virginia), Georgia Power, MISO, Pacific Northwest and SPP

75626

Lynne Kiesling @knowledgeproblem.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

Brian Arthur’s theory of combinatorial innovation provides a framework for analyzing Brian Potter's history of lithium ion battery technology. 📉📈 and 🔌💡 knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/recombinan...

knowledgeproblem.substack.com

Recombinant Modularity and Technological Change

How the lithium ion battery is an emergent technology of other technologies

182

Lynne Kiesling @knowledgeproblem.bsky.social · 29/11/2024

A really insightful and informative essay on Elinor Ostrom's work on community self-governance in commons situations.

041

Reposted by Lynne Kiesling

Joe Weisenthal @weisenthal.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

What do the antitrust people think about the Texas AG's lawsuit against the big asset managers for pressuring coal producers to reduce output, thus reducing competitive pressure www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

bloomberg.com

BlackRock, Vanguard Accused of Violating Antitrust Law by Texas

BlackRock Inc., Vanguard Group Inc. and State Street Corp. were sued by a group of states led by Texas for allegedly breaking antitrust law by boosting electricity prices through their investments, in...

127718

Reposted by Lynne Kiesling

Michael Liebreich @mliebreich.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

Fascinating. Secondary literature (and presumably press reporting and social media) have been over-estimating the contribution of tyre wear to air pollution. Good news (though all that tyre rubber must still end up somewhere in the environment). pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/...

pubs.acs.org

Airborne Tire Wear Particles: A Critical Reanalysis of the Literature Reveals Emission Factors Lower than Expected

Tires are a ubiquitous part of on-road transport systems serving as the critical connecting component at the interface of the motive power and road surface. While tires are essential to automobile fun...

58524

Lynne Kiesling @knowledgeproblem.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

One big thing for me is not captured in your excellent slides: are you in the job/industry because you want to be, or have you been making decisions based on someone else's (maybe your adviser?) view of what you should do? Many academics want their students to be academics & that gets baked in.

110

Lynne Kiesling @knowledgeproblem.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

Open dialogue and open inquiry are foundations of both science and a free society. Tyler, I respect your appreciation of those foundations.

020

Lynne Kiesling @knowledgeproblem.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

Thanks @pauldockery.bsky.social! I really enjoyed our conversation so, so much.

030

Lynne Kiesling @knowledgeproblem.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

Correct, distribution level, and IMO dist level balancing will reduce balancing pressure on bulk/Tx. We are not designing a day-ahead market, are starting w/what we did in the Olympic Peninsula project, RT 5-min double auction market periods. We have other market design hypotheses to test later.

030

Reposted by Lynne Kiesling

James Plunkett @jamestplunkett.bsky.social · 16/11/2024

“Complexity is not the same as chaos”. There’s a nice chapter from Alice Calder in here that unpacks Ostrom’s idea of polycentricity. Public officials often think they need to tidy up institutions that seem messy - overlapping remits, etc. 1/2

A photo of a book: Elinor Ostrom and the Bloomington School. The cover shows a photo of Elinor Ostrom gesturing with her hand as she gives a talk.

2307

Lynne Kiesling @knowledgeproblem.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

I'd argue that it's not necessarily SOC-aware dispatch, which can be intense for an optimization algorithm, but SOC-aware and SOC-contingent bidding algorithms for the devices themselves that can do that & communicate owner preferences.

120

Lynne Kiesling @knowledgeproblem.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

As an FYI for SOC-aware bidding at the distribution level: in the TESS transactive energy project we've designed the bidding functions to do just what you've described. @fnbillimoria.bsky.social @brendan.bsky.social

020

Reposted by Lynne Kiesling

Alexina Jackson @alexinajackson.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

Creating relevant quantities of high-quality is an early step to modernizing the electrical grid. Data + machine learning and computational power ='s augmented intelligence to support grid planners, operators, owners, and users. An article with accessible early examples tinyurl.com/yfpyf6nu

tinyurl.com

AES Accelerates with AI

The company has taken significant steps to harness the value of data through artificial intelligence and machine learning.

452