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kiwimic.bsky.social

@kiwimic.bsky.social
2.3K followers 6.3K following 11 posts

Weĺlingtonian. Love the nature around us. Walker and cyclist. Increasingly frustrated and flummoxed about climate change denial and politics here in Aotearoa and globally.

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Reposted by @kiwimic.bsky.social
Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
New paper by the World’s most prominent climate scientists shows rapid acceleration of human-caused warming, with a warming rate now that tracks to near 2.4°C by 2050, far faster than was expected, if it continues…
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Sam Carana @samcarana.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
On October 14, 2026, Antarctic sea ice area was 1.93 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the lowest anomaly on record for that day and a deviation of -5.36σ. The blue band in the middle indicates one standard deviation from the 1981-2010 average. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/09/will...
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Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
Climate simulations spanning centuries to millennia suggest that an El Niño-like climate state could persist for centuries after emissions cease, bringing lasting rainfall shifts and more frequent extreme El Niño events. Net zero ≠ climate reset. www.nature.com/articles/s43...
nature.com
Ocean thermal inertia sustains a tropical Pacific mean state shift under net zero - Communications Earth & Environment
The tropical Pacific shifts towards El Niño-like conditions under ongoing warming and does not recover for centuries after emissions cease, according to climate model simulations spanning centennial t...
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David Zipper @davidzipper.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
"One year after NYC launched its congestion pricing policy, fine particulate pollution inside Manhattan’s congestion relief zone was 13 percent lower." news.climate.columbia.edu/2026/10/07/s...
news.climate.columbia.edu
Study Links NYC Congestion Pricing Policy to Cleaner Air In Lower Manhattan
One year after NYC launched its congestion pricing policy, fine particulate pollution inside Manhattan’s congestion relief zone was 13 percent lower, according to a new analysis.
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Extreme Temperatures Around the World @extremetemps.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
‼️EXTRAORDINARY Dozens of thousands of records are smashing heat records in Over 200 countries and territories (>90% of the total) in All Continents: Europe,Asia,Oceania,Africa,North and South America. We are witnessing something beyond imagination. Wait for the updates later
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 13/10/2026
Your 'moment of doom' for Oct. 13, 2026 ~ Window alert! "The polar oceans rarely come up, even though they cover a fifth of the global ocean and are changing faster than almost anything on Earth ... And the window to do something about it is already closing." www.earth.com/climate/scie...
earth.com
Scientists warn that polar oceans are being left out of climate protection plans
Scientists warn that polar oceans are being overlooked in climate protection efforts, despite their vast potential to store carbon and support marine biodiversity.
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 13/10/2026
We have a new article out! We discuss how supporting and strengthening sparse observational networks across the polar regions is essential for developing trustworthy machine learning prediction models and evaluating their performance. In @agu.org's @eos.org (open access): doi.org/10.1029/2026...
doi.org
Reliable AI Sea Ice Forecasts Depend on Sustained Observations - Eos
Sea ice is a fundamental regulator of Earth’s climate and an increasingly urgent forecast target itself. Can we trust the AI systems now being built to predict it?
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Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
What happens when wildfires become too extreme to fight? In a warming world, fire isn’t just a disaster to contain…some fires exceed the practical limits of suppression. We need to rethink resilience and how we prepare for a world where some fires can’t be stopped. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/12/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Wildfires Are Unfightable Now
This year’s fast moving, virtually irrepressible wildfire events are not the seasonal burns of decades past.
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Renee de St. Croix @reneedsc.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
“Dutch people cycle an average of 2.6km each per day. If this pattern was replicated worldwide, annual carbon emissions would drop by 686 million tonnes.” #Dutch
euronews.com
Cycling like the Dutch would slash the world’s carbon footprint
If everybody cycled like the Dutch, we could offset the UK or Australia’s entire carbon footprint.
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Prof Bill McGuire @profbillmcguire.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Global heating rate now at 0.4C a decade 1.5C to be permanently crossed in 2028 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
A recent doubling of global warming rate signals a 1.5 °C breach by 2028 - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science - A recent doubling of global warming rate signals a 1.5 °C breach by 2028
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Dr Paul Dorfman @drpauldorfman.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
IPCC is under pressure to delay publication of key global #climate report by petro-states. www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
IPCC is under pressure to delay publication of key global climate report
AR7 report was scheduled for 2028 in time for Cop33 summit but some petro-states and major developing countries want to postpone it
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 12/10/2026
Breaking News! Code Yikes! Global total column precipitable water just set a new record high for the month of September. Upshot? More droughts. More floods.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 12/10/2026
Some say early 2030s. Others say 2028. But the math says it already happened in February, 2026. The Climate 8-Ball says there will not be a year in the next 100 years with a temperature anomaly less than 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline.
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The War on Cars @thewaroncars.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
They’re both carrying the same number of people - and probably the same amount of cargo.
Woman wearing black riding, green lime bike. In the background is a blue pickup truck.
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 12/10/2026
Last month was 2nd warmest September on record globally. This was about 1.63°C warmer than a pre-industrial (1850-1900) average. The last 12 months have been about 1.50°C above that same baseline. Summary by @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social at climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-...
Orthographic map showing 2-m air temperature anomalies in September 2026 relative to a 1981-2010 baseline. This visualization shows North and South America. Most all areas are warmer than average. El Nino is visible.Orthographic map showing 2-m air temperature anomalies in September 2026 relative to a 1981-2010 baseline using ERA5 data. This visualization shows Africa, Europe, and western Asia. Most areas are warmer than average.Orthographic map showing 2-m air temperature anomalies in September 2026 relative to a 1981-2010 baseline using ERA5 data. This visualization shows Australia, Antarctica, and Asia. Most areas are warmer than average, except for parts the Antarctic.
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Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
We’re cutting mercury emissions, but climate change could bring yesterday’s pollution back into the food chain. Thawing permafrost, wildfires, and warming waters may change how mercury moves and becomes toxic methylmercury. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Climate change reshapes the global mercury cycle
How will climate change shape future human risks to mercury exposure?
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Sam Carana @samcarana.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
The image compares the 2026 El Niño with earlier El Niños by highlighting sea surface temperatures compared to 1951-1980 in the Niño 3.4 region, with the dotted line indicating the significance of potentially exceeding 4°C above this base. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/09/will...
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Prof Bill McGuire @profbillmcguire.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
#FOTW Daily Post 11 I'm unflinching about the science — but I refuse to trade in despair. The past tells us things WILL be grim, but if we lose hope and fail to act, they will be far worse So, pls share and tag 2 That's how hope becomes momentum #FateOfTheWorld #TogetherUnstoppable #ClimateHope
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Dr Paul Dorfman @drpauldorfman.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
In the summer of 2025, solar became Pakistan’s single largest source of electricity, generating around a quarter of the country’s power during peak months. janrosenow.substack.com/p/the-solar-...
janrosenow.substack.com
The solar boom outrunning the grid
How countries with hot climates, fast-growing economies, expensive energy, and fragile grids turn to solar.
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 10/10/2026
Visualization of changes in yearly global sea-ice volume from 1979 to 2025. Recent years are clearly well below the long-term average. Graphic from zacklabe.com/global-sea-i...
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Sam Carana @samcarana.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
NASA ocean temperature anomalies versus 1880-1920. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/09/will...
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Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Almost 300,000 people now live in flood‑prone areas in the Nepalese Himalayas – new research theconversation.com/almost-300-0...
theconversation.com
Almost 300,000 people now live in flood-prone areas in the Nepalese Himalayas – new research
Satellite data shows roads, settlements and infrastructure are expanding into the same valleys that are vulnerable to floods and landslides.
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 10/10/2026
Global ocean heat content (0-2000 m depth) now updated through June 2026... Do you see where this is heading? 🔥📈🌊 This graph showing anomalies is created by NOAA at www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/globa....
Line graph time series of global ocean heat content for the 0-2000 m layer for 3 month averages, yearly averages, and five years averages from the late 1950s to 2026. There is a long-term warming trend. The baseline is 1955-2006 for the zero reference to calculate the anomalies.
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Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
2024 saw more extreme rainfall events worldwide than any year on record. Global warming set the stage, while El Niño and unusually warm tropical oceans helped intensify extremes early in the year. With El Niño strengthening, the lesson from 2024 matters: prepare. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Record-setting heavy precipitation occurrence in 2024
Precipitation extremes have increased globally in recent decades, consistent with a warming climate. We find that 2024 experienced a record-high frequency of heavy (≥99th percentile; FP≥99) precipitat...
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
New working paper: the Norwegian wealth tax was a huge success. The "exodus" of wealthy people never happened (less than 100 individuals left). Tax revenue increased by 71.5%. No changes in business activity or investment. www.nber.org/papers/w35854
Taxing Entrepreneurial Wealth: Evidence from
Norway, 2021-2025
Marius A. K. Ring
WORKING PAPER 35854|
DOl 10.3386/w35854
ISSUE DATE October 2026
Whether imposing higher taxes on business owners adversely affects business activity by constraining investment and inducing capitalist flight is a central question in the ongoing debate on how to tax the ultra wealthy. To shed new light, I exploit a series of related Norwegian reforms during 2021-2024 that increased dividend tax rates, removed migration-related capital gains tax loopholes, and nearly doubled the effective marginal tax rate on business wealth. These reforms spurred international debate and, allegedly, an "exodus" of Norwegian billionaires (Financial Times,
2023). While I document clear effects on migration, these responses are concentrated among the top 0.1% of the wealth distribution and mostly confined to 2022 and 2023. My results indicate that at most 100 individuals left due to the reforms. I find no evidence of significant outmigration or reduced inflows of startup founders or inventors. I estimate that absent any outmigration, wealth tax revenues would have increased by 75% from 2021 to 2024. Reform-driven outmigration lowers the revenue gain to 71.5%. My findings further show that outmigrating owners' firms remain economically active and do not reduce investment. In a broader set of analyses, I examine whether business outcomes are affected, regardless of whether owners outmigrate, since firms may reduce investment both due to liquidity constraints or distortions to owners' savings decisions. I compare firms owned by Norwegian individuals subject to the wealth tax with firms owned by foreigners and other tax-exempt entities. By merging historical ownership data from Orbis with the Norwegian shareholder register, I perform these analyses on both Norwegian and foreign-domiciled firms.
Across settings, I find no evidence that Norwegian-owned firms pay out more dividends or invest less after the reforms,…
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alexvonwitzleben.bsky.social @alexvonwitzleben.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
The former Brazilian environment minister #MarinaSilva has said that if #FlávioBolsonaro becomes president he will seek to finish the “perverse project” of rampant #rainforest destruction initiated by his jailed #farright father www.theguardian.com/world/2026/o... #ClimateEmergency #Amazon
theguardian.com
Marina Silva on Flávio Bolsonaro: He will try to finish his father’s ‘perverse project’ to destroy the Amazon
Exclusive: Former Brazilian environment minister warns of destruction as far-right scion favourite to become president
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 10/10/2026
Global surface temperatures can be quite volatile, but it's worth noting that October 6, 7 and 8 each set a new record for the highest global temperature on that day since records began in 1940. If you like records, there will a lot more record hottest days to come! Stay tuned!
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 10/10/2026
Temperature departures around the world averaged over the last three months... 🟥 warmer than average 🟦 colder than average Data from data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
Global map showing surface air temperature anomalies for the July 2026 to September 2026 period. Most all areas are warmer than average. Anomalies are calculated in reference to a 1951-1980 climate baseline using GISTEMPv4.
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Sam Carana @samcarana.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
On October 9, 2026, Antarctic sea ice area was 1.88 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the lowest anomaly on record for that day and a deviation of -4.75σ. The blue band in the middle indicates one standard deviation from the 1981-2010 average. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/09/will...
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Brent Toderian @brenttoderian.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
“In London cyclists now outnumber cars in the City by 2 to 1. Paris, where they now outnumber motorists across the whole city, is catching up with Europe’s traditional bike capitals, Amsterdam & Copenhagen…In Copenhagen, bikes account for almost half of commuter trips to work/school.” @economist.com
economist.com
Forget EVs. Cycling is revolutionising transport
Pedal power is booming, spinning up a new culture war
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Dr Paul Dorfman @drpauldorfman.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Tories overstate net zero cost by nearly £500bn in apparent spreadsheet error. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
theguardian.com
Tories overstate net zero cost by nearly £500bn in apparent spreadsheet error
Exclusive: Badenoch’s flagship conference policy document cites £957bn estimate, twice the total in climate advisers’ data
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Robert Reich @rbreich.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
25 years ago today, the U.S. launched its war in Afghanistan. Weeks earlier, Barbara Lee was the only member of Congress to vote against the 2001 Authorization of Military Force, warning it would be a blank check for forever wars. History has proven her lonely and courageous vote right.
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Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
A record-breaking UK summer may be shifting climate attitudes. 62% now say extreme heat is the most pressing climate impact, up from 36% in October 2024. Concern about wildfires has soared from 13% to 47%. But still little change in behaviour… theconversation.com/did-the-hot-...
theconversation.com
Did the hot summer make more people worry about climate change? Here’s what the latest indications show
Around 65% of the British public are now concerned about climate change.
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Charles Keener @charleskeener.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
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Sam Carana @samcarana.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
On September 28, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N,0-360°E) sea surface temperature was 21.15°C, an anomaly of 1.02°C vs 1982-2010. On September 19, 2026, the sea surface temperature was 21.18°C, a bit higher, but the anomaly was the same, i.e. 1.02°C vs 1982-2010. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/09/will...
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Ed Wilson @eddwilson.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
#R4Today
theguardian.com
Antarctic winter sea ice falls to third-lowest level on record as scientists warn of ‘now problem’
Coverage levels fall a million square kilometres short of the long-term average, with global heating likely driving losses
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Edward Elderman @elderman.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the two largest reservoirs in the system, reached historically low combined storage in July, with experts warning that the Colorado River Basin is facing increasingly difficult conditions."
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Dr. Genevieve Guenther (she/they) @doctorvive.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Over 120,000 people marched across France calling for action to halt global heating. www.lemonde.fr/en/environme...
lemonde.fr
Thousands march for climate across France: 'I wish there were more of us, after the summer we've just had'
From Bordeaux to Paris, organizers say 120,000 people took part in 260 demonstrations 'for the climate, for life, for peace, for social justice.
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 27/09/2026
The last three months are the warmest on record globally, relative to every other June-July-August period since 1850. Data from NOAA/NCEI's NOAAGlobalTempv6.1.0.
Line graph time series of global land mean surface temperature anomalies for each June-August period from 1850 through 2026. There is a long-term increasing trend and large year-to-year variability. The mean surface temperature anomaly averaged for June-August 2026 was 1.21°C for global land areas. Anomalies are computed relative to a 1901-2000 climate baseline. Data from NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI NOAAGlobalTemp v6.1.0.
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Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Antarctic sea ice just hit its 3rd-lowest winter max in the 48-yr satellite record: 17.59 M km² on 14 Sept. That’s not a record...but its striking when you realise: 👉 5 lowest Julys: all since 2022 👉 4 lowest Aug: all since 2023 👉 2023 record-low winter maximum www.carbonbrief.org/concerning-l...
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 25/09/2026
Quick oceans update: yah, sea surface temperatures remain in new territory this year. See more at zacklabe.com/climate-chan.... This data (extrapolar ocean) is provided by @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social ERA5. 🌊
Graph showing daily global mean sea surface temperatures for 2026. This is also compared to the daily data from the 1981-2010 average and 1991-2020 average. Annotations are also shown to the current year with the other years from 1940 to 2026. There is a seasonal cycle. There is a long-term warming trend. 2023 and 2024 are also indicated, which were the warmest years on record. Data is from ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis and updated through 23 September 2026.
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Lior Steinberg @steinberg.nu · 24/09/2026
Is it Amsterdam? Copenhagen? No, it's Paris! After years of investment, the French capital has one of the best problems a city can have: bicycle congestion. So if Paris has done it, why wouldn't other cities follow? 📸 Such an amazing photo by @jbpssx.bsky.social
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Friends of the Earth @friends-earth.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
After a summer of wildfires and drought, we now face an El Niño that is already set to be the most intense in living memory. It’s crucial that the government acts to prepare us for the impacts of climate change, and curb the carbon emissions driving this crisis. www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
UK shares findings of damning climate crisis national security report suppressed under Starmer
El Niño poses critical threat to nations’ defences, says Ed Miliband in presentation to global foreign ministers
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Sam Carana @samcarana.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The sea surface temperature in the El Niño 3.4 region on September 21, 2026, was 29.78°C or 85.6°F, an anomaly of 3.08°C or 5.54°F versus 1991-2020 and versus 1982-2010, and an increase of 4.03°C from the 25.75°C recorded on January 9, 2026. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/09/tele...
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Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Now tell me again why we shouldn’t act on climate change… The current, record El Niño could contribute to 451,000 additional heat-related deaths over the next six months. El Niño is natural. The increasingly dangerous heat baseline we’re experiencing is not. www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
Huge El Niño projected to cause 450,000 deaths in next six months
New report predicts a heavy toll from Nigeria to the US – and comes on top of existing impacts of the climate crisis
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
If the UN Secretary-General can’t motivate world leaders to action on climate, who can? 🤷🏻‍♂️
theguardian.com
Outgoing UN chief says polluters have treated atmosphere like an ‘open sewer’
António Guterres laments world leaders’ inaction and says oil and gas firms ‘must pay’ for climate devastation
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 23/09/2026
Watch the changes in 100 years of changing June-July-August temperature anomalies over land areas through 2026 (second highest on record)... Data from NOAAGlobalTemp v6.1.0: www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/lan...
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Governor Gavin Newsom @governor.ca.gov · 22/09/2026
In the 20 years since California's carbon emission peak in 2004, we've both slashed those emissions by 28% and nearly doubled our economy. The Golden State’s economy is growing BECAUSE of our climate action, not despite it. #ClimateWeekNYC
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Le Monde in English @english.lemonde.fr · 22/09/2026
UN chief says fossil fuel majors treat atmosphere like 'open sewer'
lemonde.fr
UN chief says fossil fuel majors treat atmosphere like 'open sewer'
Antonio Guterres slammed the energy industry at the UN General Assembly on Tuesday. 'Those who polluted the most, and profited the most, must do far more to repair the damage they caused,' he urged.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 22/09/2026
With global temperatures quickly falling, this year saw 88 days with the global surface temperature above 16.5°C, the second most on record. The record holder is 2024, having 92 days above 16.5°C. The Climate Casino is taking the OVER on 100 days above 16.5°C in 2027.
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