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Jarmo Kikstra

@kikstra.bsky.social
944 followers 280 following 83 posts

Research scholar at IIASA. Imperial College London. Lead Author IPCC AR7 WG3. Climate, energy, economics, decent living standards, and justice.

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Reposted by Jarmo Kikstra
IIASA @iiasa.ac.at · 22/09/2026
⚖️ New IIASA-led research shows that integrating fairness into climate models can change how the global mitigation effort is shared across regions while still achieving the same climate goal. The findings offer new insights for translating global ambition into action. 👉 iiasa.ac.at/news/sep-202...
iiasa.ac.at
Fairness informs how the world cuts emissions
Who cuts emissions fastest, and who supports others do so, are central questions in global climate action. New IIASA-led research shows that building fairness into climate models from the start can in...
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
1/ Predictions of future climate improve over time, but this shouldn't weaken the Paris Agreement. But in several widespread interpretations of "well below 2C", it does. New (short!) paper with @joerirogelj proposes a fix. www.nature.com/articles/s41... 🧵
nature.com
Future-proofing interpretations of the Paris Agreement’s limit of well below 2 °C - Nature Climate Change
Here the authors show that a common interpretation of the Paris Agreement’s ‘well below 2° C’ target is changing with time, which could lead to higher overall warming. They propose that using median t...
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
🔍🔍 Looking for scenario submissions! 🔍🔍 Have you produced, or are you currently producing scenario data? Then we're looking for your help (in my role as #IPCC AR7 lead author). Link: doi.org/10.5281/zeno...
doi.org
Open letter on inviting scenario submissions
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Alex Romero Prieto @arp-climate.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
Friendly reminder: only a few days remain to submit your model output for the next RCMIP round. If you’d like to participate but the deadline is… rapidly approaching, do get in touch. We can likely be flexible and accommodate slightly later submissions.
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Ruben Prütz @rubenpruetz.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
In a new study, published today in Nature Climate Change, we explore how carbon dioxide removal (CDR) – approaches that take CO2 out of the atmosphere – may affect #biodiversity. 🦎🐌 doi.org/10.1038/s415...
doi.org
Biodiversity implications of land-intensive carbon dioxide removal - Nature Climate Change
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) plays an important role in decarbonization pathways to meet climate goals, but some methods are land-intensive. Multimodel analysis reveals conflicts between biodiversity ...
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Alex Romero Prieto @arp-climate.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
Public discussion on the RCMIP3 protocol paper has now been opened! Do send us your thoughts if you have any ideas on how we could make the intercomparison better!
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Alex Romero Prieto @arp-climate.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
🎉 My first publication is out in Geoscientific Model Development! 📝 “Review of climate simulation by Simple Climate Models” ⭐ Selected as a GMD Highlight Article Link: doi.org/10.5194/gmd-...
doi.org
Review of climate simulation by Simple Climate Models
Abstract. Simple Climate Models (SCMs) are a key tool in climate research, enabling the rapid exploration of climate responses beyond the reach of more complex models and aiding in the estimation of f...
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Kim Cobb @kimcobb.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
It is hard to overstate how critical @ncar-ucar.bsky.social is to climate science in the US and around the world. It's the beating heart of our field. Generations of scientists have trained there, and almost everyone I know relies on deep collaborations with NCAR scientists. It's end is unthinkable.
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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 21/11/2025
Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 preprint: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20... In parallel to experiments run by complex climate models, we evaluate the simple climate models that are used as translations of knowledge from physical science to scenario projections
egusphere.copernicus.org
Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3: Experimental protocol for coordinated constraining and evaluation of Reduced-Complexity Models
Abstract. Reduced-Complexity Models (RCMs) are a critical tool for synthesising climate science knowledge and providing climate projections for a wide range of emissions scenarios. The Reduced-Complex...
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Wikimedia Foundation @wikimediafoundation.org · 21/10/2025
The 800-page Second Austrian Climate Report (AAR2) is now more accessible thanks to Wikimedia Austria. Open licensing and a Wikimedian in Residence helped bring key findings to Wikipedia, Commons, and Wikidata, connecting climate science to everyday life. Read more ➡️ w.wiki/FXHt
Group of five people standing outdoors holding copies of the Austrian Climate Report, smiling at the camera. A cityscape with glass buildings appears in the background. Text reads: "How Wikimedia Austria made climate science accessible by bringing it to Wikipedia."
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PLOS Climate @plosclimate.org · 09/10/2025
Just published in PLOS Climate: "Towards provision of regularly updated climate data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project" 🔗 journals.plos.org/climate/arti... @wcrp-cmip.org @juliearblaster.bsky.social @baylorfk.bsky.social @tatianailyina.bsky.social
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Yann Quilcaille @yannquilcaille.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
I'm proud to be part of the 2025 #TIME100Climate list of influential leaders. Link to the full list of 2025 #TIME100Climate time.com/collections/... Link to my page in the 2025 #TIME100Climate time.com/collections/...
time.com
Yann Quilcaille: The 100 Most Influential Climate Leaders of 2025
Find out why Yann Quilcaille is on TIME's 2025 list of the 100 most influential leaders driving business climate action.
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
Dutch general elections happened today. First exit poll is here. Dutch elections not easy to cover / explain: so many parties (~15)! Since last year, I'm trying to track the votes by party colour - here's how I grouped it. github.com/jkikstra/ele...
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IPCC @ipcc.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
📣 Last days to apply as a Chapter Scientist to support author teams for IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report. The deadline for applications is 18 October 2025. More details: lnkd.in/dGvmmWeC
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Yann Quilcaille @yannquilcaille.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
🚨 Important paper in Nature: "Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors". www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors - Nature
Climate change made 213 historical heatwaves reported over 2000–2023 more likely and more intense, to which each of the 180 carbon majors (fossil fuel and cement producers) substantially contributed.
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IIASA @iiasa.ac.at · 26/08/2025
The @ipcc.bsky.social has announced the authors for its Seventh Assessment Report (#AR7). With 3 Coordinating Lead Authors & 10 Lead Authors, IIASA will play a key part in delivering the best available knowledge to guide effective and equitable climate action. 🔗 iiasa.ac.at/news/aug-202...
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
Honoured to serve as a Lead Author for the IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report! Chapter 3, WG III. I expect to focus on global mitigation pathways, decent living standards for all, and post-growth approaches. Team looks great! First big meeting in December. All authors: apps.ipcc.ch/report/autho...
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News Eye @newseye.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
This is amongst the most impactful two minutes of broadcasting I’ve ever seen. By Emma Murphy, International Editor, ITV News. #Gaza
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Carl Schleussner @carlschleussner.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
🚨Submission deadline ahead🚨 Join us for the world's first global conference at @iiasa.ac.at from Sep 30 to Oct 02. (Extended) abstract deadline is around the corner (July 4). Don't miss it! overshootconference.org/abstract-sub...
iiasa.ac.at
Overshoot Conference from 30 September to 2 October 2025
As the world faces the growing risk of exceeding the 1.5°C warming threshold, understanding the risks and responses to climate overshoot across different disciplines has never been more urgent.
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Annika Högner @hoegner.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
New study out, in which we detect a causal link in reanalysis+observational data from an AMOC SST index to the Southern Amazon rainforest: dry season precipitation increases when the AMOC weakens. doi.org/10.1088/1748...
doi.org
Causal pathway from AMOC to Southern Amazon rainforest indicates stabilising interaction between two climate tipping elements - IOPscience
Causal pathway from AMOC to Southern Amazon rainforest indicates stabilising interaction between two climate tipping elements, Högner, Annika, Di Capua, Giorgia, Donges, Jonathan F, Donner, Reik V, Feulner, Georg, Wunderling, Nico
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
🌍 New publication – and the final paper of my PhD! Can we end poverty, provide decent living standards (and beyond) for all, and meet climate targets? 📄 Paper (open access): “Closing decent living gaps in energy and emissions scenarios: introducing DESIRE”: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
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IIASA @iiasa.ac.at · 13/05/2025
New IIASA-led research shows that achieving sustainable development and climate targets at the same time is not only possible but necessary. “Eradicating poverty and protecting the planet are not conflicting goals,” says lead author @kikstra.bsky.social. 🔎 iiasa.ac.at/news/may-202...
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Chris McDermott @chrismcdermott.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
“We’re not just talking about lifting people out of extreme poverty; we’re looking at futures with high development ambition, ensuring decent living standards as a minimum for everyone worldwide.” @kikstra.bsky.social, @iiasa.ac.at
ecowatch.com
It’s Possible to End Global Poverty Without Compromising Climate Goals, New Research Shows - EcoWatch
Ensuring that everyone on Earth has a decent standard of living is possible in accordance with reducing emissions quickly and decisively.
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Read about our new work on 'net zero carbon debt' @carbonbrief.org 👇
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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 26/03/2025
What's the fairest way to deal with the (inevitable) overshoot of 1.5°C? New paper led by @setupelz.bsky.social explores the concept of "net zero carbon debt" Here's the VUB press release: press.vub.ac.be/who-is-respo...
press.vub.ac.be
Who is responsible for overshooting the 1.5°C climate limit? New study tracks net-zero carbon debt.
What is a fair way forward after the 1.5°C warming limit of the Paris Agreement has been breached? In a new study, an international team...
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Joeri Rogelj @joerirogelj.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
With global warming closing in on 1.5C, one aspect is clear: some countries' emissions have exceeded their fair share. To deal with this, we present the concept of carbon debt in a new paper in @pnas.org. Lead author @setupelz.bsky.social explains in a long thread 👇🧵
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Carl Schleussner @carlschleussner.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
With 1.5°C being dangerously close, moving the goalpost might seem tempting. In this extremely relevant contribution @setupelz.bsky.social and co-workers @iiasa.ac.at suggest an alternative: Keep the target - and keep the books. Carbon debt for climate integrity 👇👇👇
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
📢 New paper w/ G. Ganti @robinlamboll.bsky.social L. Grant @cjsmith.be @shonali-p.bsky.social @joerirogelj.bsky.social K. Riahi @wimthiery.bsky.social @gidden.bsky.social We examine a forward-looking measure to guide collective efforts in the era of climate overshoot: net-zero carbon debt. 🧵
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Chris Bataille @chrisbataille.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
OK, seriously, Dr. Kate Calvin is one of the best, most well rounded climate scientists alive. She is the current co-chair of IPCC WGIII AR7, and a fabulous leader. Eliminating her current position as Chief Scientist at NASA is not just a shot in the foot, but an amputation. @ipcc.bsky.social
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Aruna Chandrasekhar @arunacsekhar.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
Not a new nature fund just yet, but developing countries get something much bigger, 3 decades in the making: a permanent mechanism for biodiversity finance. Esp significant in today's geopolitical climate that has cast a cloud over cooperation and hopes for more funding for nature and climate.
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Regina R Rodrigues @rrrocean.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
I have been receiving the sad news about massive NOAA firing. I cannot explain how important NOAA is for science globally. The data and model outputs generated by NOAA globally allow researchers from countries that don’t have the funding or capability to develop those to do their own science. 🌊🧵
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Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
Do you want to work on improving some of the most widely used global climate datasets? We are offering a 34-month research / climate data science post to further develop CRU TS and CRUTEM @climateuea.bsky.social @ncas-uk.bsky.social vacancies.uea.ac.uk/vacancies/14...
Cover page of the candidate brochure for a Senior Research Associate / Climate Data Scientist post at UEA
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 27/02/2025
Last Tuesday, I was set to give a talk on 'climate change in the Northeast' at a retirement home but had to cancel due to hourly job threats. After nearly two weeks of overwhelming uncertainty, today it happened. I was fired from my dream of working at NOAA. I'm so sorry to everyone also affected.
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Daniel Huppmann @danielhuppmann.bsky.social · 18/10/2024
Scenarios from Integrated Assessment & energy systems models are an important part of the policy discourse for getting to net-zero. IIASA, IAMC and the Earth Fund are starting a new initiative to make these scenarios more accessible and actionable! #ScenarioCompass scenariocompass.org/news
Screenshot of the Scenario Compass website:

A global initiative to inform choices about the future of our planet. Join the Scenario Compass Initiative in its efforts to make scenarios more accessible and actionable.
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Daniel Huppmann @danielhuppmann.bsky.social · 18/02/2025
Feels weird reposting this with everything that's going on, but... We are compiling an emissions & energy scenario ensemble that will hopefully be useful to IPCC AR7. Submission deadline March 1. A little step towards #OpenScience and #FreeTheModels... #ScenarioCompass
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Marina Andrijevic @andrijevic.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
Have you ever wondered if the global leadership on climate would be less depressing if we had more Luisas and fewer Elons? With gender equality backsliding everywhere, it’s super important to stress its role in addressing the climate crisis. A 🧵 on our new paper on gender equality & scenarios:
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
Comparing our ‘fair warming’ budgets to deepest available domestic reduction (DADR) pathways shows that high domestic ambition is unlikely to be sufficient for many. This underscores a major challenge: the need to address expected breaches through international cooperation (more on this soon...).
Figure comparing remaining CO2-we budgets with deepest available domestic reduction (DADR) pathways.
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Carbon Brief @carbonbrief.org · 15/01/2025
New #vacancy 🚨 ➡️ Do you know how to find, process and analyse data? ➡️ Can you spot opportunities to use data to inform topical talking points? ➡️ Do you want to contribute to accurate reporting of climate change and energy? Apply for the data analyst position here ⬇️
buff.ly
Vacancy: Data analyst - Carbon Brief
Carbon Brief is seeking a skilled data analyst to support our award-winning journalism. You’ll help...
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
Fairness has always been central to international climate talks, and its interpretation has been diverse, to say the least... Our new paper identifies key ‘entry points’ where crucial, often hidden, decisions are made that underlie fairness assertions in practice. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
iopscience.iop.org
Entry points for assessing 'fair shares' in national mitigation contributions - IOPscienceSearch
Entry points for assessing ‘fair shares’ in national mitigation contributions, Pelz, Setu, Ganti, Gaurav, Pachauri, Shonali, Rogelj, Joeri, Riahi, Keywan
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
Only 1 day left to submit!
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
EGU25 CMIP Forcings session (anthro + natural). Abstract submission deadline: 15 January 13:00 CET(!) Link: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio... Submit anything that deals with: - responses to forcing changes; - uses CMIP7, CMIP6, or other CMIP phases Please circulate! ...
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William F. Lamb @wflamb.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
New dataset: Tidy GHG Inventories (zenodo.org/records/1451...) I extracted emissions data from the national inventories and put it into a tidy, consistent format. The kind of format that I would actually use.
zenodo.org
Tidy GHG Inventories
General description This data file is a compilation of national greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) inventories, sourced from the Common Reporting Tables (CRTs) that countries submit to the UNFCCC. The CRT...
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IIASA @iiasa.ac.at · 17/12/2024
Applications for the IIASA Young Scientists Summer Program 2025 are open until 13 January 2025! Are you an advanced PhD student ready to take your research further? Learn more and apply: iiasa.ac.at/early-career... #PHDcourse #PHDprogram #Earlycareerresearcher
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
EGU25 CMIP Forcings session (anthro + natural). Abstract submission deadline: 15 January 13:00 CET(!) Link: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio... Submit anything that deals with: - responses to forcing changes; - uses CMIP7, CMIP6, or other CMIP phases Please circulate! ...
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Joeri Rogelj @joerirogelj.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Climate action is falling terribly short Time to bury the 1.5C goal? Absolutely not - why the 1.5 goal must prevail (even when global warming exceeds 1.5C) My opinion for Project Syndicate 👇 www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a...
project-syndicate.org
The 1.5°C Target for Global Warming Must Prevail | by Joeri Rogelj - Project Syndicate
Joeri Rogelj argues that the threshold established by the Paris agreement remains crucial – even if it is breached.
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
Accountability. Key to achieving climate justice is to hold responsible high emitters. We need to increase accountability. Taking 1.5C off the table decreases accountability; it risks reducing the climate debt of rich countries, beclouding what the accountability target should be. Let's not? Read:
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IIASA @iiasa.ac.at · 14/11/2024
#COP29 is all about putting more money on the table. "We need to move from billions to trillions", says IIASA's Shonali Pachauri from IIASA. iiasa.ac.at/blog/nov-202...
iiasa.ac.at
COP29 in Baku is a Climate Finance COP: It’s about justice
At the COP in Baku, Azerbaijan, nation states must decide on a new climate finance regime, that will take effect from 2025. Studies show that by 2030, a sixfold increase in international financing is ...
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Bjoern Soergel @bjoernsoergel.bsky.social · 30/10/2024
Our new study “Multiple pathways towards sustainable development goals and climate targets” - A summary thread Read it in full here (open-access): iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
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Richard Bärnthaler @rbaernthaler.bsky.social · 29/04/2024
A brief perspective, hot off the press. “When enough is enough: Introducing sufficiency corridors to put techno-economism in its place.” 1/11 link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
When enough is enough: Introducing sufficiency corridors to put techno-economism in its place - Ambio
Today's ecological crises are entwined with inequality dynamics, yet prevailing techno-economic approaches in climate research and policy fall short in addressing the ecological crisis as distribution...
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Simon Tschannett @simontschannett.bsky.social · 14/04/2024
400 Bäume sind möglich! #Gumpi #Gumpendorferstraße 400 Bäume sind nötig! Ein paar gibt es ja schon. Wie hier vor der Kirche in Gumpendorf. @gruenewien.bsky.social @spoewien.bsky.social
„400 Bäume sind möglich“ ist auf den Boden gesprayt. Dahinter 7 Bäume & Kirche St. Ägyd in Gumpendorf. Die Gumpi wird nämlich umgebaut. Mehr Bäume in der ganzen Straße!
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