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Jarmo Kikstra

@kikstra.bsky.social
944 followers 280 following 83 posts

Research scholar at IIASA. Imperial College London. Lead Author IPCC AR7 WG3. Climate, energy, economics, decent living standards, and justice.

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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
IIASA is indeed a good place because it is so international. And colleagues have been putting in the work to create data standards, support teams, create infrastructure for making data accessible, etc.). But that doesn't mean it's easy or that funding for academic data work has been solved.
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Pretending like the current data sharing is not more open than AR6 is nonsense -- if that'd be the same now, there would be no website, no API, no downloads, no open software to work with it, etc. etc. This has all been loads of work, done by Daniel & team, to make it live & available.
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The data ownership lies with the modelling teams. There is a community consensus to use the current license.
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Glen your numbers seem ... a little outdated... IIASA hasn't been immune to the decline in funding around the world (particularly USA). Funding for the institute as a whole is 27% membership contributions in 2025. You can imagine for the ECE program it's much less (close to fully external)
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IIASA @iiasa.ac.at · 22/09/2026
⚖️ New IIASA-led research shows that integrating fairness into climate models can change how the global mitigation effort is shared across regions while still achieving the same climate goal. The findings offer new insights for translating global ambition into action. 👉 iiasa.ac.at/news/sep-202...
iiasa.ac.at
Fairness informs how the world cuts emissions
Who cuts emissions fastest, and who supports others do so, are central questions in global climate action. New IIASA-led research shows that building fairness into climate models from the start can in...
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Explicit fire modelling itself, including adaptation options (suppression efficiency): pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19...
pure.iiasa.ac.at
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
ESMs have started modelling interactive fires too, FIRE-MIP CMIP7: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20... Input emissions forcings to ESMs without interactive fires are (on purpose) reflecting current climate, no future climate feedbacks, and without temporal variability (left for downstream).
egusphere.copernicus.org
EGUsphere - The Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) for CMIP7
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Process based IAMs. Some process based IAMs have started modelling interactive fires (no ref at hand..). Post-processing IAM results: assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-860...
assets-eu.researchsquare.com
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
As explicit feedbacks, no, perhaps implied*. But there's ground work for more in CMIP7 era? Last IAMC meeting had a few presentations too. *in aggregate damage functions, perhaps... but black-box and questionable if we've had enough of a fire regime change already historically?
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
1/ Predictions of future climate improve over time, but this shouldn't weaken the Paris Agreement. But in several widespread interpretations of "well below 2C", it does. New (short!) paper with @joerirogelj proposes a fix. www.nature.com/articles/s41... 🧵
nature.com
Future-proofing interpretations of the Paris Agreement’s limit of well below 2 °C - Nature Climate Change
Here the authors show that a common interpretation of the Paris Agreement’s ‘well below 2° C’ target is changing with time, which could lead to higher overall warming. They propose that using median t...
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
✉️ Also, of course please feel free to reach out to me directly with any questions you might have!
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
More information for the *data submission* here: 👉 scenariocompass.org/ar7
lnkd.in
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Take a look (and please share widely!) at this *open letter*: 👉 doi.org/10.5281/zeno... These could be #global, #regional, and #national scenarios!
lnkd.in
LinkedIn
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
The goal is to carry out an assessment that covers the literature as comprehensively as possible, with inclusivity in the process being a core tenet. The IPCC authors could use your support. So we wrote this open letter calling for scenarios to be made available in a community format and database.
lnkd.in
LinkedIn
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
🔍🔍 Looking for scenario submissions! 🔍🔍 Have you produced, or are you currently producing scenario data? Then we're looking for your help (in my role as #IPCC AR7 lead author). Link: doi.org/10.5281/zeno...
doi.org
Open letter on inviting scenario submissions
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Alex Romero Prieto @arp-climate.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
Friendly reminder: only a few days remain to submit your model output for the next RCMIP round. If you’d like to participate but the deadline is… rapidly approaching, do get in touch. We can likely be flexible and accommodate slightly later submissions.
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Ruben Prütz @rubenpruetz.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
In a new study, published today in Nature Climate Change, we explore how carbon dioxide removal (CDR) – approaches that take CO2 out of the atmosphere – may affect #biodiversity. 🦎🐌 doi.org/10.1038/s415...
doi.org
Biodiversity implications of land-intensive carbon dioxide removal - Nature Climate Change
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) plays an important role in decarbonization pathways to meet climate goals, but some methods are land-intensive. Multimodel analysis reveals conflicts between biodiversity ...
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Alex Romero Prieto @arp-climate.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
Public discussion on the RCMIP3 protocol paper has now been opened! Do send us your thoughts if you have any ideas on how we could make the intercomparison better!
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Alex Romero Prieto @arp-climate.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
🎉 My first publication is out in Geoscientific Model Development! 📝 “Review of climate simulation by Simple Climate Models” ⭐ Selected as a GMD Highlight Article Link: doi.org/10.5194/gmd-...
doi.org
Review of climate simulation by Simple Climate Models
Abstract. Simple Climate Models (SCMs) are a key tool in climate research, enabling the rapid exploration of climate responses beyond the reach of more complex models and aiding in the estimation of f...
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Kim Cobb @kimcobb.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
It is hard to overstate how critical @ncar-ucar.bsky.social is to climate science in the US and around the world. It's the beating heart of our field. Generations of scientists have trained there, and almost everyone I know relies on deep collaborations with NCAR scientists. It's end is unthinkable.
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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 21/11/2025
Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 preprint: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20... In parallel to experiments run by complex climate models, we evaluate the simple climate models that are used as translations of knowledge from physical science to scenario projections
egusphere.copernicus.org
Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3: Experimental protocol for coordinated constraining and evaluation of Reduced-Complexity Models
Abstract. Reduced-Complexity Models (RCMs) are a critical tool for synthesising climate science knowledge and providing climate projections for a wide range of emissions scenarios. The Reduced-Complex...
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Wikimedia Foundation @wikimediafoundation.org · 21/10/2025
The 800-page Second Austrian Climate Report (AAR2) is now more accessible thanks to Wikimedia Austria. Open licensing and a Wikimedian in Residence helped bring key findings to Wikipedia, Commons, and Wikidata, connecting climate science to everyday life. Read more ➡️ w.wiki/FXHt
Group of five people standing outdoors holding copies of the Austrian Climate Report, smiling at the camera. A cityscape with glass buildings appears in the background. Text reads: "How Wikimedia Austria made climate science accessible by bringing it to Wikipedia."
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PLOS Climate @plosclimate.org · 09/10/2025
Just published in PLOS Climate: "Towards provision of regularly updated climate data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project" 🔗 journals.plos.org/climate/arti... @wcrp-cmip.org @juliearblaster.bsky.social @baylorfk.bsky.social @tatianailyina.bsky.social
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 01/11/2025
A dancing rainbow!
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
P.S. if I split out 'progressive/left' and call D66 and Volt 'progressive centre' then we find this picture
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Yann Quilcaille @yannquilcaille.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
I'm proud to be part of the 2025 #TIME100Climate list of influential leaders. Link to the full list of 2025 #TIME100Climate time.com/collections/... Link to my page in the 2025 #TIME100Climate time.com/collections/...
time.com
Yann Quilcaille: The 100 Most Influential Climate Leaders of 2025
Find out why Yann Quilcaille is on TIME's 2025 list of the 100 most influential leaders driving business climate action.
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
Minor update in morning estimate
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
I'm assuming Ipsos just shares the data directly with NOS, not anything else. The NOS website reads "© NOS. Bron: IPSOS, in opdracht van NOS en RTL"
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
Ah fair question - no I just based it on the news reporting. Do you have a link?
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
No changes in the 21:30 exitpoll update.
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
Dutch general elections happened today. First exit poll is here. Dutch elections not easy to cover / explain: so many parties (~15)! Since last year, I'm trying to track the votes by party colour - here's how I grouped it. github.com/jkikstra/ele...
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
In addition to @openclimatedata.net on AR5; section 2.1.2 tried to summarise this for all ARs: gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/... After writing it, I also wanted to do this. So if you embark on it I'm keen to help. I did already collect even older emissions data (RCP, AR4, SRES, even IS92!)
gmd.copernicus.org
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures
Abstract. While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical science reports usually assess a handful of future scenarios, the Working Group III contribution on climate mitigation to ...
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IPCC @ipcc.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
📣 Last days to apply as a Chapter Scientist to support author teams for IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report. The deadline for applications is 18 October 2025. More details: lnkd.in/dGvmmWeC
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Yann Quilcaille @yannquilcaille.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
🚨 Important paper in Nature: "Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors". www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors - Nature
Climate change made 213 historical heatwaves reported over 2000–2023 more likely and more intense, to which each of the 180 carbon majors (fossil fuel and cement producers) substantially contributed.
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IIASA @iiasa.ac.at · 26/08/2025
The @ipcc.bsky.social has announced the authors for its Seventh Assessment Report (#AR7). With 3 Coordinating Lead Authors & 10 Lead Authors, IIASA will play a key part in delivering the best available knowledge to guide effective and equitable climate action. 🔗 iiasa.ac.at/news/aug-202...
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
So, feel free to connect/reach out with anything you feel may be helpful research and suggestions! Attached a screenshot with the topics we will cover in our chapter. All chapter outlines: www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/...
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
In light of the International Court of Justice’s reaffirmation of the importance of IPCC reports, I believe its very important to do our best to improve on past reports, as a scientific community, providing solid scientific evidence for what's very urgent: good, well-informed, climate action.
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
Honoured to serve as a Lead Author for the IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report! Chapter 3, WG III. I expect to focus on global mitigation pathways, decent living standards for all, and post-growth approaches. Team looks great! First big meeting in December. All authors: apps.ipcc.ch/report/autho...
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News Eye @newseye.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
This is amongst the most impactful two minutes of broadcasting I’ve ever seen. By Emma Murphy, International Editor, ITV News. #Gaza
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
- also here showing 'human-induced' forcing (only anthropogenic), whereas the paper generally presents data including also natural forcing (regular solar cycles). These solar cycle peaks can affect the total forcing or temp peaks a small bit too
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
A few subtle differences: - Fig 3 is temperature, not Effective Radiative Forcing - the plot Ken is showing picks a few 'illustrative pathways', to highlight higher (two left) and very low (two right) climate outcomes. The paper always looks at larger _groups_ of scenarios
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 06/07/2025
Thanks Ken :). I thought this was a time to keep the y-axis constant across panels to highlight exactly that and accept that half of the facets are just whitespace -- show those contributors to warming don't matter nearly as much as CO2.
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Carl Schleussner @carlschleussner.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
🚨Submission deadline ahead🚨 Join us for the world's first global conference at @iiasa.ac.at from Sep 30 to Oct 02. (Extended) abstract deadline is around the corner (July 4). Don't miss it! overshootconference.org/abstract-sub...
iiasa.ac.at
Overshoot Conference from 30 September to 2 October 2025
As the world faces the growing risk of exceeding the 1.5°C warming threshold, understanding the risks and responses to climate overshoot across different disciplines has never been more urgent.
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Annika Högner @hoegner.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
New study out, in which we detect a causal link in reanalysis+observational data from an AMOC SST index to the Southern Amazon rainforest: dry season precipitation increases when the AMOC weakens. doi.org/10.1088/1748...
doi.org
Causal pathway from AMOC to Southern Amazon rainforest indicates stabilising interaction between two climate tipping elements - IOPscience
Causal pathway from AMOC to Southern Amazon rainforest indicates stabilising interaction between two climate tipping elements, Högner, Annika, Di Capua, Giorgia, Donges, Jonathan F, Donner, Reik V, Feulner, Georg, Wunderling, Nico
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
Yes, these scenarios also include (lots of) decarbonization
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
That's definitely crucial. The scenarios themselves (created with integrated assessment models) in this paper suggest start from the current infrastructures and project pathways of structural change away from that.
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
📰 Press release (IIASA): "Ending poverty without compromising climate goals": iiasa.ac.at/news/may-202...
lnkd.in
LinkedIn
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
☀️What's next? Use the DESIRE model, developed in this study, to create new scenarios. With that, we hope to more explicitly explore the effects of providing Decent Living Standards on climate mitigation scenarios, and emissions reduction targets across the world.
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
Last line of the abstract as a take-home message: "This work illustrates the possibility of pathways that deliver DLS for all while meeting the Paris Agreement."
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Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
4️⃣ In these scenarios, more than half of the global population—including in low-income countries—achieve living standards more than twice as high as the DLS benchmark for the buildings sector.
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