A comprehensive list of polls and polling averages for elections and politician approval.

Our brand-new election forecast for the 2026 congressional midterms puts Democrats at above even odds to take control of both chambers

A dispatch from the Methods Desk

The Democrats are polling well with all voters, but especially independents and rural ones

Live results for the March 10, 2026 primary elections in Georgia and Mississippi. Track election results with real-time vote counts, county-level maps and race calls from AP.

And an update on our polling averages in the Texas Senate race.

Paying subscribers can now access full interactive data tables and a redesigned website at fiftyplusone.news

A comprehensive list of polls and polling averages for elections and politician approval.

Candidates for NYC mayor told us where they stand on issues. Which is the top match for you? Find out before heading to the polls.

G. Elliott Morris, the data journalist who took over 538 in 2023, is launching Strength In Numbers, a paid Substack.

Independent, reader-funded media is the best way to safeguard unbiased, data-driven analysis for the public good. Become a member and support the mission.

His average economic approval also hits a new low (-13), and his tariffs are underwater by 30 points

Nate Silver’s website suffered because of Trump and changes in political news coverage.

The Times identified 45 people within the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, a group formed by Elon Musk that in a short few weeks has radically upended federal agencies.

The best charts 538 made in 2024.

An investigation found more migrant drowning deaths than the U.S. or Mexico have reported. Many were in Eagle Pass, where Texas’ border crackdown is focused.

The number of infected people, measured over 70-some years and across all 50 states and the District of Columbia, generally declined after vaccines were introduced.

538's benchmarks estimate how well candidates need to do in each county.

538’s 2024 Senate election forecast model showing Democratic and Republican chances of winning control.

538’s 2024 House of Representatives election forecast model showing Democratic and Republican chances of winning control.

Test your knowledge of what the public thinks about the former president’s policies.

Use our "what-if" tool to pick a winner in each state and see how it would change 538's 2024 presidential election forecast.

Test your knowledge of what the public thinks about the VP’s policies.

We analyzed voting patterns to see if members actually vote with their caucuses.

538 estimated how many delegates each Republican presidential candidate needs to win in each primary, caucus or convention to win the GOP nomination.

MarketWatch has built a tool using Department of Labor data to show the average cost of childcare by county and how that compares to your income