Sign in

Karl Rohe

@karlrohe.bsky.social
2.6K followers 326 following 788 posts

NO KINGS “Overly optimistic” 🦮 in Statistics. Listening in statistics. Statistics Professor at UW Madison.

PostsRepliesMedia
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
you are right! you definitely don't want to do that and EM is a possible solution... there are further complications if the latent variables are continuous, then you need to integrate (instead of sum) and those integrations can be complicated.
000
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
i was today years old when i learned that if {all the latent variables are discrete}, then you don't need EM... you can just compute the observed data log likelihood and maximize that.
110
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
if it doesn't come from a randomized trial, then it is just sparking endogeneity.
000
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Wut
010
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Underpaid for identifying these things!
010
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Dearest @wapplehouse.bsky.social i humbly offer a line edit…. wouldn’t it be the fourth largest, not second largest?
000
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
Tb4lyfe
010
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Do you start from frozen or thaw in the microwave first?
000
Reposted by Karl Rohe
Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
ICE picking up legal observers today in Minneapolis, swarming through the city like we haven’t seen in months. Very aggressive: watched a heavily armed platoon take an observer, then ran into a four-car convoy that kept intentionally veering in front of me on the highway. STAY SAFE MN PEOPLE
8422114
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Jfc
010
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Do you have the 1600 reviews? I would love to pull them apart on my site manifold.ing
manifold.ing
Manifold — See the spread.
Manifold pulls your documents apart and shows you the spread.
020
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Ok ok. *sometimes* we can impute things.
040
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
cool! congrats on getting it onto cran! cc: @alexpghayes.com
010
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Truth!
030
Reposted by Karl Rohe
Drunk On Mystery, but like....Spooky @drunkonmystery.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
I have no idea how to end this thread, so I'll just say this: There are a lot of completely miserable people on here, and they will tell you, earnestly, that you owe it to them to be just as miserable as they are. Please do not listen to them. You are loved, and you deserve your joy.
2653677
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Not saying it doesn’t feel weird to chop tails! Would you feel better if the chopped off values were NAs and imputed by low rank structure? I think this is something that would work in svd approaches (eg via softimpute)
000
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Svd without winds finds outliers. With winds seems to find smoother / more-real-looking patterns. There are low rank plus sparse approaches, but they are slow and require a difficult-to-interpret tuning parameter.
100
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Here is why I do it and very curious for push back! svd gets global optimum. Other loss functions don’t get that. So, this pushes me towards it (and the least squares comes with it). I don’t know what else to do besides go non convex.
100
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
I wonder what he does when he thinks no one is watching. Like, probably some pretty bad stuff in the Epstein files.
080
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
T-tests / PCA / Machine Learning
070
Reposted by Karl Rohe
Vicki @vickiboykis.com · 30/04/2026
I don’t buy the idea that libraries will go away since everyone can just write their own now. Maybe for small internal company use-cases. But libraries are not just code, they’re time invested in edge cases, they’re hundreds of hours of human eyes. I don’t want to replace that.
1924229
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
🎂😩 Thank you for sharing
010
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
This isn’t just a great bit, this is commitment to a great bit.
010
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
TGIM 😂
010
Reposted by Karl Rohe
David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
Reminder: The Trump regime cancelled nearly $500 million in federal contracts for mRNA vaccine development last year.
nbcnews.com
Pancreatic cancer mRNA vaccine shows lasting results in an early trial
Scientists caution that more research is needed, but nearly all of the patients who responded to the personalized vaccine are still alive six years later.
8564260
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
Causal inference when you condition on the mediator:
0101
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
Cigarettes don’t give you cancer, it’s when you inhale the smoke … that’s what gives you cancer.
080
Reposted by Karl Rohe
Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
It would be very helpful for Democrats to establish now, IN ADVANCE, that future Democratic administrations will allow any relevant criminal proceedings to go forward, and that decisions made by military leaders today could have life-changing consequences for them in the future.
452238446
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Free pizza in the fridge
000
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Can you imagine if we had local LLMs before the internet? That would be so weird. LLMs with the internet are so so much more powerful … their super human patience is going to deal so much organizational bull stuff.
010
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
The biggest problems are organizational problems It’s like we are all parallel computing with our brain processing units, struggling to communicate and sync up If that’s true, maybe ai will not be as big of a deal as the internet.
100
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
AI is going to make writing so good. Becky and Tom in HR and the rest of us plebes get clean (appropriately boring) prose. And great writers all get biggest chip on their shoulder. THEY are gonna write some damn good stuff
040
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
FACULTY SAUNA
000
Reposted by Karl Rohe
John Mullahy @johnmullahy.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
My annual March 14 suggestion to move π Day to July 22 since 22/7 is closer to π than is 3.14.
4549
Reposted by Karl Rohe
Heather Horton @heatherhorton.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
“We live between two silences.”~Mark Strand I’m not just interested in the room, I’m interested in the room beyond the room. “Gayle, Holly’s Room”, oil on 24”x48”, private collection. 🔴
2143
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
Gosh damn.
010
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
Came here to say this.
010
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
A low rank approximation
020
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
the infinite sequence of ai expansion… humans want to use ai. Ai can’t do everything. So, whatever ai needs humans for, humans will provide it. Great trade! And then the ai keeps that as training data and next year won’t need humans for that step.
010
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 14/02/2026
Amen brother.
050
Reposted by Karl Rohe
Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 14/02/2024
roses are red violets are great we need Census data to properly weight
15812
Reposted by Karl Rohe
ghost malone ergo propter bones @proptermalone.bsky.social · 14/02/2026
impeachment has to be next up
1761068
Reposted by Karl Rohe
Nicole Hennig @nic221.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Google Search Has Been Quietly Poisoning Your AI Skills decision.substack.com/p/google-searc… #AI #context
So here's your real challenge: it's not about learning a new tool. It's about unlearning a reflex you didn't know you had. Next time you open your AI tool of choice, catch yourself in the act of compressing. Notice the instinct to shorten your question into a search-engine-shaped nugget. Resist it.
Give the tool the full picture instead. Treat it like a brilliant advisor you're genuinely trying to help understand your problem.
You might be surprised by what happens when you stop poisoning the conversation with habits from a different era.
1282
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
ironic that the right got memetic warfare ideas and we got these fake-security kids. Like, could we swap tactics? This kids don’t understand the game. And it is so so bad.
000
Reposted by Karl Rohe
John Mullahy @johnmullahy.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
Major news outlets: Please consider prominently reporting what this all-star team of researchers has found. www.nber.org/papers/w34791
210258
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
How common are date typos in these types of documents? @kenwhite.bsky.social @mitchellepner.bsky.social ??
310
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
That sounds painful
Photo in salon of product called “PCA skin”
120
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
If you haven’t been following… ICE presence in Minneapolis is still very heavy. Despite media attention elsewhere… the resistance is still overwhelming ICE on the ground:
030
Karl Rohe @karlrohe.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
A (city) block is both a measure of length and area
210