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Joshua Rovner

@jrovner.bsky.social
500 followers 422 following 50 posts

Professor of International Relations, American University Nonresident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution

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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Opening for a Program Manager at the American University School of International Service. Check it out: american.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/AU/job...
american.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com
Program Manager, SIS Graduate Education
American University is a student-centered research institution located in Washington, DC, with highly-ranked schools and colleges, internationally-renowned faculty, and a reputation for creating meani...
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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Strategy, grand strategy, and lessons from the French experience in the American Revolution @engelsbergideas.bsky.social
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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
"If you like the Fourth of July, thank a Frenchman." My two cents in this Happy Birthday compendium... blueblaze.substack.com/p/happy-birt...
blueblaze.substack.com
Happy Birthday, USA
Salutations from foreign policy experts on America's 250th
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American University School of International Service @ausis.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Professor @jrovner.bsky.social examines what history can tell us about the trajectory of US-China relations in this new piece published in @foreignaffairs.com. Read it here: www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state…
foreignaffairs.com
The Real Thucydides Trap
Overconfidence could draw America and China into a war.
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Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 14/04/2026
The United States and China each believe that they can use new technologies to overcome the other’s advantages—and “the more they indulge this prewar hope, the more likely they are to find themselves in a protracted conflict,” writes Joshua Rovner.
foreignaffairs.com
The Real Thucydides Trap
Overconfidence could draw America and China into a war.
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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
In @foreignaffairs.com I write about how short wars become long ones. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
foreignaffairs.com
The Real Thucydides Trap
Overconfidence could draw America and China into a war.
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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
DC friends, @ldfreedman.bsky.social, Mara Karlin, Michael O'Hanlon, and I will be talking strategy at The Brookings Institution on March 24. Lots to discuss... www.brookings.edu/events/us-st...
brookings.edu
US strategy in a turbulent world | Brookings
On March 24, join Brookings for a discussion on U.S. strategy in the current geopolitical moment.
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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Trump's peactime grand strategy favors flexibility over principle. But this is a recipe for strategic confusion in war. Re-upping a piece from last year: warontherocks.com/2025/01/star...
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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Some thoughts in @warontherocks.bsky.social on Trump's grand strategy after Iran warontherocks.com/2026/03/what...
warontherocks.com
What Recent Military Operations Signal About Trump’s Grand Strategy
In his 2025 article, “Start Making Sense, Strategy and Grand Strategy in the Trump Administration,” Joshua Rovner argued Trump’s flexible approach to a
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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 30/12/2025
Are those holiday gift cards already burning a hole in your pocket? Invest in something that lasts longer than the season. The TNSR winter issue, featuring our newly redesigned logo, is now available in print. Order your copy now from @utexaspress.bsky.social! utpress.utexas.edu/journals/tex...
TNSR | "The Changing Face of War"
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 24/12/2025
China is undergoing major changes in how it thinks about nuclear weapons, as indicated in the just released China Military Power Report. 2 developments stand out. media.defense.gov/2025/Dec/23/...
media.defense.gov
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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 05/12/2025
Can autonomous weapons make war less brutal? Instead of viewing autonomy solely as a risk, Nathan Wood (@woodnathang.bsky.social) posits that these systems—when used within the correct parameters—offer a pathway to more discriminate and legally compliant warfare. tnsr.org/2025/12/bomb...
"Autonomous weapon systems bring many risks and concerns, but they also present an opportunity to, in specific cases, wage more discriminate forms of war—an opportunity to master and mitigate the scourges of war." by Nathan Wood from his article, "Bombs, Bots, and the Principle of Distinction . . ."
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sisresearch.bsky.social @sisresearch.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
What is sabotage and how is it a form of statecraft in world politics? A new article co-authored by @jrovner.bsky.social in @ejisbisa.bsky.social explores this concept, which has important implications for understanding contemporary security challenges. Read more: www.american.edu/sis/research...
american.edu
Joshua Rovner, Sand in the gears: Sabotage in world politics
Joshua Rovner's new co-authored article in the European Journal of International Security examines the nature and scope of sabotage as a form of statecraft.
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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 17/11/2025
How did warfare evolve in the "greater Middle East" during the Cold War? Carter Malkasian from the National War College argues this period saw a "democratization of violence"—guerrilla warfare & terrorism—that complicated state authority.
Scholar article by Carter Malkasian, "Wars of the Greater Middle East, 1945–1992"
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The Society for Intelligence History @socintelhist.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
@jrovner.bsky.social, @rorycormac.bsky.social, and @lmaschmeyer.bsky.social's new article is a super read on an important but neglected area of covert action: www.cambridge.org/core/service...
cambridge.org
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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
What is sabotage? How does it work as a tool of statecraft? And what are its limits? Check out my new article with @rorycormac.bsky.social and @lmaschmeyer.bsky.social. Open access
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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
Concerns about the presumption of regularity also impact national security policy. Re-upping a piece from the first Trump administration: warontherocks.com/2020/04/an-a...
warontherocks.com
An Attack on Inspector General Signals Something Much Bigger
We expect a lot from the intelligence community. In addition to traditional missions like providing warning and supporting warfighters, intelligence
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Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 20/10/2025
#OpenAccess from @ejisbisa.bsky.social - Sand in the gears: Sabotage in world politics - cup.org/4o2MQBc - @jrovner.bsky.social, @rorycormac.bsky.social & @lmaschmeyer.bsky.social #FirstView
Cover of the "European Journal of International Security" with the hashtag "#OpenAccess" visible on the upper right corner.
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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
Delighted to talk about Strategy and Grand Strategy with Aaron Maclean on his excellent School of War podcast. Check it out! www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZZD...
youtube.com
Ep 236: Joshua Rovner on Grand Strategy
YouTube video by School of War Podcast
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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 30/09/2025
Our latest roundtable examines the rapidly evolving global nuclear order. From North Korea to NATO, China to Latin America, this collection of essays explores the domestic and international forces reshaping nuclear security. Full roundtable: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...
tnsr.org
Navigating the New Nuclear Map - Texas National Security Review
The global nuclear order is undergoing rapid and complex transformations, driven by the expansion of arsenals, evolving doctrines, and the interplay of domestic and international politics. This roundt...
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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
Strategy and Grand Strategy beyond war and peace. Bradley Dickey from the Cambridge Centre for Pandemic Risk uses the book to understand the response to covid-19 - and to think about the broader questions surrounding health security. www.crassh.cam.ac.uk/blog/strateg...
crassh.cam.ac.uk
Strategies for pandemics and Grand Strategy for disease health security - CRASSH
The plan to "win the peace" after a pandemic is a critical but undeveloped element of pandemic preparedness
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Reid Pauly @reidpauly.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
I joined @nktpnd.bsky.social on his @warontherocks.bsky.social podcast “Thinking the Unthinkable” to talk about my new book: The Art of Coercion. And here’s the book (the ebook is free!): www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
cornellpress.cornell.edu
The Art of Coercion by Reid B. C. Pauly | Paperback | Cornell University Press
The Art of Coercion presents a fresh explanation for the success—and failure—of coercive demands in international politics.Strong states are surprisingly bad at coercion. History shows they prevail...
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Jon Lindsay @jonrlindsay.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
Good news! You can now download the open access (free) ebook of Age of Decption from @CornellPress ! (You can also buy a paperback, which makes a fine decoration for your bookshelf) www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
cornellpress.cornell.edu
Age of Deception by Jon R. Lindsay | eBook | Cornell University Press
At the heart of cybersecurity lies a paradox: Cooperation makes conflict possible. In Age of Deception, Jon R. Lindsay shows that widespread trust in cyberspace enables espionage and subversion. While...
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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 26/09/2025
Should the US release secret intelligence for strategic gain? A roundtable debate in @h-diplo.bsky.social with Melissa Graves, David Gioe, @mindyhaas.bsky.social and me: issforum.org/roundtables/...
issforum.org
Jervis Forum Roundtable 17-5 on Gioe and Morell, “Spy and Tell”
Roundtable Review 17-5 David V. Gioe and Michael J. Morell, “Spy and Tell: The Promise and Peril of Disclosing Intelligence for Strategic Advantage,” Foreign Affairs 7:4 (2024): 138-152.
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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
New collection of essays and interviews on European security. Includes my thoughts on strategy and grand strategy. human-magazin.de/wp-content/u...
human-magazin.de
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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
Teaching about 9/11, then and now. My thoughts @usatoday.com
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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
I have some thoughts for USA Today on teaching abut 9/11, then and now www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...
usatoday.com
How has teaching about 9/11 changed since 2001? We asked educators.
Once a shared experience, the day has slipped into history for students, and even teachers, who weren't yet born when the attacks happened.
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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 09/09/2025
At the start of WWI, Britain allowed the trade of machine guns to Germany but banned the trade of carriages for them. Why? On our podcast Mariya Grinberg discusses her book, "Trade in War," and why adversaries often continue to trade even while fighting @mitpolisci.bsky.social @ssp-mit.bsky.social
"Trade in War" with Mariya Grinberg, available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube, and Amazon
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Rory Cormac @rorycormac.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
Article on sabotage accepted for publication in @ejisbisa.bsky.social authored with @lmaschmeyer.bsky.social and @jrovner.bsky.social calls for a celebratory Dartmoor whisky Sabotage weaponises friction to degrade; subversion actively generates change 2 distinct logics in “grey zone” statecraft
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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 08/09/2025
A study of nearly 2,000 military and civilian officials reveals that even the most experienced experts are susceptible to cognitive biases that can have significant implications for international stability. Read Jeffrey Friedman's article on this topic on the TNSR website. tnsr.org/2025/09/the-...
tnsr.org
The World Is More Uncertain than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials - Texas National Security Review
This article analyzes more than 60,000 assessments of uncertainty made by national security officials from more than forty NATO allies and partners. The findings show that national security officials ...
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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
1/2 Putin's long war in Ukraine has reduced Russia's influence abroad, writes @hannanotte.bsky.social. Put another way, its wartime strategy is working against its broader grand strategy. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/15/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Putin Should Be Careful What He Wishes For
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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
New tenure-track position in international security tinyurl.com/5dsuwcvm
tinyurl.com
Assistant Professor (Tenure-Track) - Department of Foreign Policy & Global Security
American University is a student-centered research institution located in Washington, DC, with highly-ranked schools and colleges, internationally-renowned faculty, and a reputation for creating meani...
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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 31/07/2025
If you have used TNSR resources in the past, please take a few minutes to fill out this survey. The first 100 respondents will receive a FREE COPY of our next print edition! coda.io/form/Texas-N...
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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 30/07/2025
Claire Vergerio penned a response to the roundtable we published on her book earlier this year. In it she notes how historians of international relations tend to differ with legal scholars on their assessment of her book's contemporary relevance.
Quote from Claire Vergerio, "I would like to thank all the contributors again for engaging so thoughtfully with my work and for giving me the opportunity to further develop and clarify my own ideas on some of the core overarching questions that have driven my research over the years."
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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 29/07/2025
Is Taiwan the indispensable military fortress it's often claimed to be? In our latest "Horns of a Dilemma" episode, Jonathan Caverley (@jcaverley.bsky.social) of the U.S. Naval War College presents a compelling analysis based on his TNSR article. youtu.be/6p-SJt6q5Es
youtu.be
The Strategic Significance of Taiwan in US Defense Planning | Horns of a Dilemma
In this episode, Ryan Vest and Sheena Chestnut Greitens are joined by Jon Caverley, an esteemed national security and China scholar, to discuss his article, "So What? Reassessing the Military…
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American University School of International Service @ausis.bsky.social · 22/07/2025
Is war ever really worth it? SIS professor Joshua Rovner (@jrovner.bsky.social) & other experts gave their unique analysis on this topic in a new piece published in @inkstickmedia.com as part of a collaboration with the Stimson Center. inkstickmedia.com/is-war-ever-...
inkstickmedia.com
Is War Ever Really Worth It?
Experts discuss how to evaluate success and failure in war.
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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 22/07/2025
1/2 Is war worth it? Some thoughts here, in a roundtable for @stimsoncenter.bsky.social with Chis Preble, @speechboy71.bsky.social, Paul Fritz, and Chijioke Onuchukwu inkstickmedia.com/is-war-ever-...
inkstickmedia.com
Is War Ever Really Worth It?
Experts discuss how to evaluate success and failure in war.
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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
Nice to see Fixing the Facts in the Cornell UP backlist blog, though I wish there were fewer stories of politicization in the news... www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/fixing-the-f...
cornellpress.cornell.edu
The Backlist Blog: Lessons from Fixing the Facts in Today's Complex Security Landscape
As we navigate the increasingly complex national security challenges of 2025, Joshua Rovner's Fixing the Facts remains more relevant than ever.
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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
From the current issue of @tnsr.org: Anderson and Press on war and escalation in Korea, @jcaverley.bsky.social on Chinese control of Taiwan, @richardmaass.bsky.social on legal deterrence, Lonergan and Snyder on military culture, and Herb Lin on AI and nuclear weapons tnsr.org/latest-print...
tnsr.org
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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
I wrote a primer on the technical and political problems of bomb damage assessment for @theconversation.com theconversation.com/what-damage-...
theconversation.com
What damage did the US do to Iran’s nuclear program? Why it’s so hard to know
A scholar of intelligence and strategy explains why battle damage assessments are so challenging – and why the process has become politicized.
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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 20/06/2025
1/2 Ignoring the intelligence community on Iran is a strategic mistake, as I argue in @warontherocks.bsky.social. It removes an important voice from the policy process, and it reduces US diplomatic leverage over friends and foes. warontherocks.com/2025/06/inte...
warontherocks.com
Intelligence, Strategy, and the Israeli-Iranian War – War on the Rocks
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 20/06/2025
Short thread on Iran’s potential threat to Strait of Hormuz, subject of much recent attention. 1/4 www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/u...
nytimes.com
In Crisis With Iran, U.S. Military Officials Focus on Strait of Hormuz
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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 20/06/2025
My latest in @warontherocks.bsky.social
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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 11/06/2025
Is North Korea's artillery a paper tiger? The latest TNSR article challenges the conventional wisdom on the threat to Seoul. tnsr.org/2025/06/lost...
"Has North Korea found a way to compensate for its inferior conventional military power? Or is North Korea’s artillery—like the North Korean military more broadly—largely a paper tiger?" Quote from "Lost Seoul? Assessing Pyongyang’s Other Deterrent" by Nicholas D. Anderson and Daryl G. Press
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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
For those who didn't know Owen Coté, this roundtable is a good place to start. A must read for students of nuclear weapons, naval power, and security studies in general. issforum.org/tribute/h-di...
issforum.org
H-Diplo | RJISSF Tribute to the Scholarship and Legacy of Owen R. Coté, Jr.
6 June 2025 | PDF: https://issforum.org/to/jt3 | Website: rjissf.org | Twitter: @HDiplo Editor: Diane Labrosse Commissioning Editor: Jennifer Erickson Production Editor: Christopher Ball Pre…
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Good Authority @goodauth.bsky.social · 05/06/2025
Will the U.S. intelligence community be politicized? Our team does "A Good Chat" about the Trump administration’s Tren de Aragua assessment. Read the latest from @claryc.bsky.social and Joshua Rovner: goodauthority.org/news/will-th...
goodauthority.org
Will the U.S. intelligence community be politicized?
A Good Chat about the Trump administration’s Tren de Aragua assessment.
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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 05/06/2025
I spoke with @claryc.bsky.social at @goodauth.bsky.social about intelligence and politicization: goodauthority.org/news/will-th...
goodauthority.org
Will the U.S. intelligence community be politicized?
A Good Chat about the Trump administration’s Tren de Aragua assessment.
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Joshua Rovner @jrovner.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
Delighted to welcome @polinabeliakova.bsky.social and Suzanne Freeman to @ausis.bsky.social www.american.edu/sis/news/202...
american.edu
SIS Welcomes New Faculty in Fall 2025
Get to know American University’s School of International Service new full-time faculty members for the 2025-2026 school year.
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Dr. Dan Lomas @sandbaggerone.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
⁉️ What does the UK public think about GCHQ, MI5, MI6/SIS? Do they trust them? 🆕️ In this new Intelligence & National Security article, we study 🇬🇧 public trust and knowledge in detail. 📊 The results make interesting reading. If you're interested, link here ⏬️ 🔗 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 04/05/2025
Who really has the right to wage war? Claire Vergerio's "War, States, and International Order" challenges the long-held assumption that this right belongs exclusively to states. Hendrik Simon's (@hendrikpsimon.bsky.social) full review of this book is on our website! tnsr.org/roundtable/b...
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