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Reid Pauly

@reidpauly.bsky.social
105 followers 12 following 18 posts

Assistant Professor of Nuclear Security and Policy at Brown University. Author of "The Art of Coercion" (Cornell UP): www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9…

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Reposted by Reid Pauly
Jacqueline L. Hazelton @drjlhazelton.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Here's the @intsecurity.bsky.social article it's based on. @reidpauly.bsky.social @mitpress.bsky.social @belfercenter.bsky.social @pearson-edits.bsky.social direct.mit.edu/isec/article...
direct.mit.edu
Damned If They Do, Damned If They Don't: The Assurance Dilemma in International Coercion
Abstract. Why do some coercive demands succeed but others fail? A dominant paradigm explains coercive outcomes by pointing to the credibility and severity of threats. The concept of coercive assurance...
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Reposted by Reid Pauly
Jacqueline L. Hazelton @drjlhazelton.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Important work from @reidpauly.bsky.social on US-Iran @mitpress.bsky.social @belfercenter.bsky.social @pearson-edits.bsky.social @intsecurity.bsky.social www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
foreignaffairs.com
The Lost Art of Coercion
Why Trump’s belligerence is a sign of weakness.
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Reposted by Reid Pauly
Jacqueline L. Hazelton @drjlhazelton.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Valuable piece from @reidpauly.bsky.social in @goodauth.bsky.social @mitpress.bsky.social @belfercenter.bsky.social Why the US struggles to coerce Iran.
goodauthority.org
Why the U.S. is finding it hard to coerce Iran
The limits of U.S. coercion are evident in the dispute over Iran's nuclear program. Understanding how coercion works can help explain why this is so challenging.
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Reposted by Reid Pauly
Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 16/07/2026
“Trump’s reputation for belligerence will continue to hinder his dealmaking ambitions for the remainder of his presidency,” write @reidpauly.bsky.social and @matthewcebul.bsky.social. “Trust is hard to gain and easy to lose, and the U.S. president has surely lost much of it around the world.”
foreignaffairs.com
The Lost Art of Coercion
Why Trump’s belligerence is a sign of weakness.
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Reposted by Reid Pauly
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Today in @foreignaffairs.com, @reidpauly.bsky.social and I reflect on why Trump’s belligerent approach to coercion so often fails, and what it will take to repair the damage that Trump is inflicting on U.S. statecraft:
foreignaffairs.com
The Lost Art of Coercion
Why Trump’s belligerence is a sign of weakness.
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Reposted by Reid Pauly
Good Authority @goodauth.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Why the U.S. is finding it hard to coerce Iran? Read our latest "Good Chat" with Reid Pauly, author of "The Art of Coercion." goodauthority.org/news/why-the...
goodauthority.org
Why the U.S. is finding it hard to coerce Iran
The limits of U.S. coercion are evident in the dispute over Iran's nuclear program. Understanding how coercion works can help explain why this is so challenging.
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Reposted by Reid Pauly
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Coercion consists of more than just making threats on Truth Social. @reidpauly.bsky.social explains.
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Reid Pauly @reidpauly.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
I had a very Good Chat with @segoddard.bsky.social about “Why the US is finding it hard to coerce Iran” @goodauth.bsky.social @profsaunders.bsky.social @watsonschoolbrown.bsky.social @brownupolisci.bsky.social goodauthority.org/news/why-the...
goodauthority.org
Why the U.S. is finding it hard to coerce Iran
The limits of U.S. coercion are evident in the dispute over Iran's nuclear program. Understanding how coercion works can help explain why this is so challenging.
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Reposted by Reid Pauly
Matthew Cebul @matthewcebul.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
More importantly, see @reidpauly.bsky.social's excellent book www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
cornellpress.cornell.edu
Product Details
Cornell University Press fosters a culture of broad and sustained inquiry through the publication of scholarship that is engaged, influential, and of lasting significance.
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Reposted by Reid Pauly
Centre for Nuclear Strategy and Security @kclcnss.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
🌎 Why do strong states sometimes fail to coerce? Join @reidpauly.bsky.social for a discussion on his new book "The Art of Coercion: Credible Threats and the Assurance Dilemma." 📆 7 May, 14:00-16:00 📌 Council Room (KIN 214), King's Building 🔗 Tickets and more information available here:
kcl.ac.uk
Book Talk - The Art of Coercion: Credible Threats and the Assurance Dilemma | King's College London
A book talk by Reid Pauly.
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Reid Pauly @reidpauly.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Pain has to be avoidable. Effective threats don’t make their target feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.” Thanks @profsaunders.bsky.social I’ll just add that the ebook is open access (i.e. free!)
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Reid Pauly @reidpauly.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
😂 It’s even worse for me, because the ebook is actually free to download.
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Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
@cornellupress.bsky.social www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
cornellpress.cornell.edu
The Art of Coercion by Reid B. C. Pauly | Paperback | Cornell University Press
The Art of Coercion presents a fresh explanation for the success—and failure—of coercive demands in international politics.Strong states are surprisingly bad at coercion. History shows they prevail...
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Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
This is partly why compellence (getting a country to do something it doesn't want to do, or undo what it has already done) is so hard: you need to be able to provide *assurance* that you will accept their actions and refrain from further punishment, etc. See @reidpauly.bsky.social's book!
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Reposted by Reid Pauly
Good Authority @goodauth.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
Pakistan is waging its own war in Afghanistan. @claryc.bsky.social and Asfandyar Mir discuss how these former allies are now in open conflict – and why this might escalate further. Read: goodauthority.org/news/pakista...
goodauthority.org
Pakistan is waging its own war in Afghanistan
Pakistan is waging its own war in Afghanistan. Christopher Clary and Asfandyar Mir discuss how these former allies are now in open conflict – and why this might escalate further.
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Reid Pauly @reidpauly.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
It was a joy to share my new book—The Art of Coercion—at Yale today. Thank you for hosting me! @yalejackson.bsky.social
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Reid Pauly @reidpauly.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
I joined @nktpnd.bsky.social on his @warontherocks.bsky.social podcast “Thinking the Unthinkable” to talk about my new book: The Art of Coercion. And here’s the book (the ebook is free!): www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
cornellpress.cornell.edu
The Art of Coercion by Reid B. C. Pauly | Paperback | Cornell University Press
The Art of Coercion presents a fresh explanation for the success—and failure—of coercive demands in international politics.Strong states are surprisingly bad at coercion. History shows they prevail...
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Reid Pauly @reidpauly.bsky.social · 02/09/2025
I spoke with Brown’s Trending Globally podcast about my new book, “The Art of Coercion” player.captivate.fm/episode/f84b...
player.captivate.fm
Diplomacy, security, and the “Art of Coercion”
Quickly and easily listen to Trending Globally: Politics and Policy for free!
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Jeff Colgan @jeffcolgan.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
My @brownupolisci.bsky.social colleagues in IR are having an amazing run of book publishing this summer. Quick thread to celebrate them (1/6) First up, @reidpauly.bsky.social book on the surprisingly tricky task of international coercion www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
cornellpress.cornell.edu
The Art of Coercion by Reid B. C. Pauly | Paperback | Cornell University Press
The Art of Coercion presents a fresh explanation for the success—and failure—of coercive demands in international politics.Strong states are surprisingly bad at coercion. History shows they prevail...
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Kori Schake 🎃 @kschake.bsky.social · 27/08/2025
I just received my first copy of the book!
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Watson School at Brown @watsonschoolbrown.bsky.social · 25/08/2025
Why do strong states so often fail to bend rivals to their will? @reidpauly.bsky.social’s new book, The Art of Coercion, reveals the missing piece: threats only work if paired with credible assurances. Learn more:
ow.ly
The Art of Coercion
Reid Pauly’s new book "The Art of Coercion" explains why strong states often fail to force compliance in international politics.
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Reid Pauly @reidpauly.bsky.social · 18/08/2025
I spoke with @newbooksnetwork.bsky.social about my new book: THE ART OF COERCION Thanks for having me on the podcast! newbooksnetwork.com/the-art-of-c...
newbooksnetwork.com
Reid B. C. Pauly, "The Art of Coercion: Credible Threats and the Assurance Dilemma" (Cornell UP, 2025) - New Books Network
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Reid Pauly @reidpauly.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
🚨 It’s publication day! THE ART OF COERCION is finally out. When do threats work? When they are perceived as credibly *conditional*. Credible and painful punishments are not enough. Threats fail if targets feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.” shorturl.at/qa4T5
cornellpress.cornell.edu
The Art of Coercion by Reid B. C. Pauly | Paperback | Cornell University Press
The Art of Coercion presents a fresh explanation for the success—and failure—of coercive demands in international politics.Strong states are surprisingly bad at coercion. History shows they prevail...
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Reid Pauly @reidpauly.bsky.social · 01/12/2023
Assurances are integral to the logic of deterrence (and coercion more broadly). They clarify the choice: war or peace. Preventing a war over Taiwan requires that we get this right and pair threats with assurance. Thanks @bglaser.bsky.social Jessica Chen Weiss and Tom Christensen for the shout-out 🙏.
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